Sunday, October 28, 2012

787 deliveries may be done for October, November looks to be a big month

Boeing looks to be done with making 787 deliveries for the month of October but November is potentially looking to be a very big month with 16 aircraft already in test flight or pre-flight.  Certainly not all those will be delivered in November but several planes coming out of the assembly line would be ready to deliver by the end of November.  The main reason of the low number in October is the bad weather which prevented Boeing from conducting first flights within their established guidlines governing 1st flights of production aircraft.  Of particular note, the low ceiling levels as well as precipitation that violated Boeing's first flight rules.

Boeing may still be able to deliver one or two more 787s by Wednesday (Oct. 31st) though it is highly doubtful.  I can see many deliveries taking place in the first two weeks of November but some may be delayed due to certain customer issues.

Air India - This customer was to have one 787 delivered from Charleston (2nd Charleston built 787) at the end of October but this is now looking like it will deliver in the first two weeks of November.  A third CHS built 787 is currently at Fort Worth being painted and should fly back to Charleston by next weekend.  A fourth CHS 787 for Air India took its first flight today and I would expect that it can go to Ft. Worth by the end of this week or early next week for painting.  I am still not sure on whether the issues surrounding Air India are resolved as these have been the major factors to the delays in delivering the 787s in recent months but if they are then it should be relatively smooth sailing in November. My prediction for November:

Air India - 2 787s will be delivered.

ANA - One 787 still in flight test and this aircraft has taken its 3rd test flight today.  It is possible that it can deliver by Wednesday Oct. 31st but I think the odds are not good.  It will certainly deliver in the first 2 weeks of November.  A second 787 for ANA is at the EMC undergoing change incorporation but this is a late build 787 which doesn't need much change incorporation so I believe it should be out on the flightline shortly and ready to go through the pre-flight program and deliver by the end of November. My prediction for November:

ANA - 2 787s will be delivered.

China Southern Airlines - There is currently one aircraft that is out on the flightline and has had only one test flight. I am still unsure if China's civil aviation authorities have certified the 787 for use by Chinese carriers or not and this uncertainty makes it difficult to say with any confidence if this aircraft (or any 787s for Chinese airlines) will be delivered this month.  This is another 787 at the EMC for China Southern that has spent a lot of time in change incorporation and I doubt that this airplane will be ready to be delivered in November. It is entirely possible that Boeing and CAAC can use the 787s that are out on the flightline to satisfy any certification requirements for the Chinese authorities but so far I don't think this is happening just yet. I'm not holding my breath on this one.  My prediction for November:

China Southern Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.

Ethiopian Airlines - With 3 787s already in hand, the fourth has had one test flight but I do expect that further test flights should take place shortly.  This airplane should deliver within the first 2 weeks of November.  The 5 787 (and last that will be delivered to this airline in 2012) is at the EMC and I suspect will be rolled out to the flightline by the end of November for a December delivery.  My prediction for November:

Ethiopian Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.

Hainan Airlines - Boeing has flown this aircraft 3 times already but the issues surrounding delivery to Hainan remain the same as that of China Southern. A 2nd Hainan 787 has been on the 40-51 ramp for some time now and has not even gone into the paint hangar.  I'm not too optimistic that these deliveries will take place in November but I have been wrong.  My prediction for November:

Hainan Airlines - 0 787s will be delivered.

LAN - The carrier too delivery of its 2nd 787 this past week and has a 3rd one out on the flightline going through pre-flight. 1st flight should take place, I believe, within the first 10 days of November with a delivery date in late November.  There aren't any more 787 in the pipeline for a December delivery so it will be the last one delivered to LAN in 2012. My prediction for November:

LAN - 1 787 will be delivered.

LOT Polish Airlines - LOTs 1st 787 has only made one test flight however the airline is saying that they will be taking delivery of their 1st aircraft around November 11 or 12th with delivery flight to Warsaw around November 15th.  A second 787 is at EMC finishing up some minor assembly tasks and already painted. I expect that this airplane will be pulled to the flightline from the EMC by mid November and should have its first flight in the later half of the month with a projected delivery in December.  There are three more 787 for LOT in final assembly and one or two of these airplanes can possibly deliver in December but certainly in January of 2013.  My prediction for November:

LOT Polish Airlines - 1 787 will be delivered.

Qatar Airways - A big one.  This airlines has already taken contractual delivery of one airplane that  is having modifications in Victorville.  There are 2 more 787s that are on the flight line at Everett. one aircraft has had 2 test flights thus far and the third one has had 3.  Assuming that there are no issues with the aircraft itself, I can see these two airplanes being delivered within the first two weeks of November possibly one may deliver before the end of October but that is a long shot.  This is Qatar Airways and they are very unpredictable and demanding.  Yet Boeing was able to satisfy them with the first airframe delivered in early October so there is hope.  There is one more in final assembly which should pull out a the end of this week (going to paint) and deliver by the end of November. One more 787 is in the EMC which is a late build and should be out on the flightline by around middle November and can be delivered in early December.  My prediction for November:

Qatar Airways - 2 787s will be delivered.

United Airlines - Another big one.  United just announced that they are delaying the implementation of it 787 schedule (domestic) as result of delays in the delivery of one 787 that was due in October. They are delaying the launch of some 787 domestic service that was supposed to start on November 4th.  Currently the 2nd 787s for United is in test flights and has had two flights already.  There are two more on the flightline both of which still need to make their first flights.  I do think that Boeing can get both these airplanes in the air by early to mid November and have a least two of them delivered to United by the end of the month with one delivered in the 1st two weeks of November.  The other 2 787s that are in change incorporation should be ready to be delivered by the end of December. My prediction for November:

United Airlines - 2 787 will be delivered.

This is a total of 11 787s delivered in November which is attainable.  Many of these airplanes are in test flights or customer flights and a few are about to enter the test flight program prior to handover.  Still the first two weeks of November should see quite a few 787 deliveries being madeto customers but weather will determine the pace of on going deliveries.

A bit of programming note...given that I am in the middle of Hurricane Sandy's target area I may be offline for up to a couple of weeks depending on when and if power needs to be restored. Hopefully it won't be too bad but I will try to update information, particularly on the tables via cell phone which is not particularly easy to do.  Thank you for your patience.








10 comments:

Emily said...

As always, thanks for the updates! Stay safe

Johanny said...

Good Luck Uresh! :)

The China Southern 787 was last seen (as per Matt's flightline video on Saturday) having its windows taped up for storage. Doesn't bode well for a "anytime soon" delivery.

entrophian said...

Cant up get someone to cover for you during the storm? You can still send the info and that person can update in your place?

Its the best thing with internet it is so spread out and resilient in many ways, information keeps flowing.

English Homework Blog said...

Uresh good luck, stay safe, and thanks for the update

English Homework Blog said...

Hey that was unexpected, a United Delivery. I thought it was delayed.

Joostdg said...

Good to see you ok uresh! And already a new update with good news thanks!

Brent said...

Interesting that the United frame only flew on 2 different occasions (although it did manage 4 take offs and landings) and delivered only 11 days after its B1 flight. Maybe Boeing is getting more comfortable with its test flight program for the 787?

Momo1435 said...

ANA might also have taken delivery of a 787, probably yesterday.

This article that was published today says that ANA has 16 787s in it's fleet, one more then listed here.
http://www.4-traders.com/ALL-NIPPON-AIRWAYS-CO-L-6491175/news/ALL-NIPPON-AIRWAYS-CO-LTD-ANA-Celebrates-First-Anniversary-of-Boeing-787-Services-15449041/

entrophian said...

Wow 2 stealth deliveries, no one was prepared for those :)

Uresh, how did you get hit by the storm, is everything ok with you and your family? I hope things go back to normal for you soon.

Randy Austin said...

Brent,

It's not the flight test program that has been causing the mutiple flights, it's the quality of the build product which has improved drastically. UAL was the first two flight delivery--B-1, C-1