Monday, November 5, 2012

Boeing closing on 787 delivery target but can they make 50?

Through October 2012, Boeing has delivered 30 787s to 7 customers.  Their publicly announced target was between 35 and 42.  They will certainly hit the lower target this month and the upper target in December but the question is can they deliver 50 787s this year. 

In earlier posts I've maintained that they can deliver 50 787s by year end. However given recent developments with China that target will now have to be revised downwards.  They can certainly attain 42 deliveries and higher but it will not be 50 airplanes.

Here's breakdown of whom I think will get 787s in November and December:

Air India - 3 deliveries

ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - November
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - November
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - December

ANA - 2 deliveries

ZA512 (LN 83) - November
ZA510 (LN 59) - December

Ethiopian - 1 delivery

ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - November

Japan Airlines - 1 delivery

ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - December

LAN - 1 delivery

ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - November

LOT Polish Airlines - 2 deliveries

ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - November
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - December

Qatar Airways - 4 deliveries

ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - November
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL) - November
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCC) - December
ZA464 (LN 82) - December

United Airlines - 3 deliveries

ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - November
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - November
ZA287 (LN 52, N26903) - December

This totals 17 Dreamliners that would be delivered thought there is an outside chance that one more air frame for Japan Airlines cold be delivered by the end of December.  The total for 2012 would be 47 airplanes in total which would certainly exceed the high end of Boeing forecasted deliveries.  Again the main driver in the reduction is the lack of deliveries to China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines.


Cedarglen said...

Can they make a fat fifty for the year? I don't know. What I would say is, what's the point of pushing - or even asking? Truth is, the good folks at Boeing have eaten a lot of lead in the last couple of years and the delays have cost them dearly. Despite the costs (real losses for investors) Boeing's management has held the line on quality and the ARE getting it right, before their customers even test drive their new airplanes. Reworking the early line numbers at Everett's EMS and/or that Texas facility has cost them an entire year's profits. They still do it, not for the FAA's type certificate, but to meet the specs! I don't know, but I suspect that the real compensation offered to clients for taking a few early line number that are a bit over weight, ha s been minimal. Boeing wants their airplanes to be right - and before they enter revenue service. In the end, the 787 is a fine airplane, well worth waiting for and the two assembly lines will be cranking them out for many years.
The number of airframes that they hand over in calendar 2012 just does not matter. That their customers receive safe, well-built and efficient airplanes is what Boeing is thinking about, not pushing the numbers or taking any short cuts. The folks that run Boeing and their 787 program are extremely bright and cutting corners is not part of their culture. When Boeing delivers an airplane, their own staff is always willing to ride along.
Someday, there will be a hull loss event with the B787. Let's just hope that the airframe can rack up 5 or even ten years of service before it happens. When it does (sadly, it will), let's also hope that the NTSB's Probable Cause finding does not point to the airplane!
There is no need to rush Boeing into delivering airplanes that are not ready for robust revenue service. Nuff said.

Uresh said...

Look how long it took before the 777 had a hull right off...20+ years.

Rick Lewis said...

Have you considered adding a column to the spreadsheet for date that air frame leaves factory? It would be of interest to note how long some of these planes have been sitting around boeing field. It would also tell us how long it takes a current 787 to go from leaving factory to delivery.

Uresh said...

I don't have access to that particular set of information plus I'm also concerned about information overload.

Brent said...

As a follow up to Cedarglen, I think it speaks volumes that ANA and Japan Airlines have both added to to their 787 orders after operating the aircraft on revenue routes for many months. It simply performs.

ET_Pilot777 said...

ET likes the superb performance. we just signed a lease for 3 more from ILFC.

Uresh said...

That's great. Do you happen to have a delivery date(s) for the next two 787s that are due to ET?

ET_Pilot777 said...

On paper, ET-AOP is due on 18 november. But based on the delivery on the last two birds it could be off a little. will dig more info and update.cheers.

Dave C said...

Quick one for you, do we know which engines British Airways are going with? I have seen reported of both types?

Uresh said...

They've signed on with RR.

Dave C said...

Thank you Uresh for clearing that up!

ET_Pilot777 said...

ET-AOP DUE 16 November