As we head into the last six and a half weeks of 2012, the delivery picture for the 787 is getting clearer as to what we can expect over the next 45 days.
To start I'm listing the 787s that may be delivered in the weeks to come before the end of the year.
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian
ZA285 (LN 45, N26901) - United Airlines
ZA286 (LN 50, N26902) - United Airlines
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India*
ZA289 (LN 55, N26905) - United Airlines
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) - ANA
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India*
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) - Qatar Airways
ZA240 (LN 65, VT-ANL) - Air India*
ZA271 (LN 78, SP-LRB) - LOT Polish Airlines**
ZA538 (LN 80, CC-BBC) - LAN Airlines
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) - Qatar Airways
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) - ANA
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) - Japan Airlines
*Dependent on Air India obtaining bridge financing to pay for the aircraft
**Supposed to have delivery flight to Poland in early January but may contractually deliver in December
There are 15 aircraft listed here but I have doubts about 4 of them being contractually delivered by Dec. 31st (as noted with the asterisks). This means that 11, I believe, will be firmly delivered by the end of the year. Boeing is currently at 32 aircraft that were delivered in 2012, which means they can potentially deliver 43 airplanes. If Air India and LOT take delivery of the aircraft that I have highlighted then the nunber goes to 47. One can imagine if Air India and the Chinese carriers had no issues, then the number of deliveries would be just north of 50. Boeing is certain to achieve the higher end of their 787 delivery forecast. Of the aircraft that are currently at the EMC and undergoing change incorporation, I don't anticipate that any these 787s will be completed in time to be delivered this year.
Thursday, November 15, 2012
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16 comments:
I have a similar post for the 747-8 over here: 747-8 Report
Hopefully Boeing will reach a record for post year 2000 747 deliveries.
Any idea what frame is going to replace line 45 in the EMC?
Not sure what went into the EMC proper -- there are really only three possibilities: LN 15, 20, or 30.
There are two obvious candidates as to what got pulled in front of the EMC to begin refurb work: LN 36 for China Southern and/or LN 28 for Air India. If you look at Matt Cawby's video for the LAN 767 delivery flight on the 14th, you'll see that those aircraft are not longer in the spots R3 and R2 respectively on Runway 11-29. R3 is now occupied by an ANA 787, which doesn't really narrow things down that much. The China Southern plane in particular could also have gone to storage somewhere else rather than to begin change incorporation.
They won't pull LN 36 in right now, not when things with Chima are in flux. They pulled earlier frames for change incorporation so the next candidates will be LN 28 and LN 26 for the C.
Does anyone know why ZA005 is flying so much? Are they testing the revised/updated GE engines?
Uresh, I'd agree with you except for all the rejected aircraft. I think it's pretty clear that ANA and LAN are not taking LNs 10 - 16, 18 and 22 and that these frames are instead going to Lion Air (5) and Transaero (4). RAM isn't taking lines 17 and 19 either but the deal for for those planes doesn't seem to have has been booked yet. Rwandair was rumored but that was awhile ago.
The impact of all this is that Boeing has/will have new contracts for those frames and aren't currently paying penalties on them.
So I'm not really sure how much of an advantage there is to Boeing in delaying change incorporation on LN 36.
If the Chinese aren't going to rake LN 36 anytime soon, it doesn't make sense for Boeing to spend time and resources to prepare it for delivery when it'll sitting in storage waiting for the issues between CAAC and Boeing to be resolved. Boeing is conducting change incorporation (mostly) in reverse numerical order and bypassed LN 36 in favor of other older aircraft . My sources have told me that the aircraft in the "terrible teens" for ANA are still allocated for ANA.
Uresh,
With 8 Air India's already in the system, wouldn't you think that they would jump the 3 AI in storage and go to LN22. At least ANA is accepting finished planes.
AI's issues are financing which is a short term problem. They need to have planes ready for them when they resolve those financing issues or else Boeing can be liable for further delays and would have to pay compensation.
Thanks for your answer.
Hi Uresh,
Thanks for the great blog - I always look forward to your updates. What happened to Ethiopian ZA261?
Hi Uresh,
Thank you for the hard work that goes into this blog - I always look forward to your updates. What happened to ZA261?
ZA261 wasn't delivered.
Uresh,
Good morning, I have a question.
On the Paine Field Blog, they speak of a plane being parked at the "Compass Rose", what does that mean. I googled it and all I get are generic answers about a compass. Thanks in advance
The Compass Rose is where they calibrate the aircraft's navigation systems and compass.
Thank you, I learn something new everyday following your blog.
Wow, moving China Southern LN36 back into the EMC and not moving LN73 Hainan back onto the fight line was unexpected.
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