Monday, September 24, 2012

Can Boeing deliver 50 787s this year?

Boeing has delivered 21 787s this year but how many more can they expect to deliver by the end of the year?  Boeing stated goal is to deliver between 30 and 42 787s this year.  They'll certainly make the lower end of their estimate but can they deliver 50 787s by the end of the year?  Assuming that Boeing delivers 4 more 787s by the end of September (9 deliveries in September) then they would have delivered 25 787s through the 3rd quarter of 2012.

Here's a look at what the airlines are expecting in the last quarter:

Air India - 4
ANA - 3
China Southern - 2
JAL - 2
Ethiopian - 3
Hainan - 3
LAN - 2
Polish LOT - 2
Qatar Airways - 5
United - 4

This adds up to 30 airplanes in total but does not include airplanes that I expect to be delivered in the remainder of September.  So this is what I think will be the final number:

Delivered (through 9/23/2012) - 21
Remaining September Deliveries - 4
Projected 4th quarter deliveries - 30

Total - 55

Of course this is my best efforts guesstimate and it all depends on how well Boeing can work through the backlog of airplanes sitting at Charleston and Everett that have finish all assembly activities.


Maciek Goralski said...

Which one of LOT's frames is going to be first? My bet is on LRB, as it needs no change incorporation, so it possibly can be prepared faster. Am I correct?

Andrew Boydston said...

Total 2012 Deliveries Through August
737 747 767 777 787
273 18 18 55 16


34.125 2.25 2.25 6.875 2

Next 4 Months Adjusted

136.5 9 9 27.5 38

Total Year Projection

409.5 27 27 82.5 54

Total 600

Andrew Boydston said...

Boeing should eclipse Airbus this year for both Orders lead and Deliveries (Revenue). They have delivered 14 A380 to Boeing's 27 747.
They are on track to deliver 600+ aircraft. The orders of 700 (+-)is ahead of Airbus in a substantial number. However Airbus likes to pad its order counting to Dec 31 as it like to report after Boeing makes a
order and delivery number in the first week of January. An Airbus net number is tricky as it does not like to post period numbers as well as it likes to post program life numbers, making the peanut gallery use its collective calculator to figure out what it really did for the year. However Boeing is more direct and does not try to fog out the numbers for the casual reader.

So Boeing is in excellent shape to surpass Airbus in both Orders and Delivery this year and regain the top spot thanks to the 787 and 747.

HK Expat said...

A few statistics to play devils advocate on your projections...

ANA/69 - 32 days from first flight to delivery
ANA/66 - on day 27 now since first flight
JAL/27 - on day 22 now since first flight

So if (a big IF) the trend continues (~30 days of test flights), unless new planes start flying in the next week, Oct deliveries could be a disappointment as only ETH/71, ETH/75 and AI/54 have flown so far...

The stats aren't much better on the flightline (obvious consideration need to be taken to the damaged GE engine - assumed to be CSN/43 but could also be QAT/64)...

CSN/43 - 41 days since out of paint hangar
QAT/64 - 39 days since out of paint hangar
LAN/74 - 28 days since out of paint hangar

So current planes, are taking up to (and exceeding) 2 months from paint hangar to delivery.

Adding all of that together (assuming no improvement in timeline):

21 planes delivered + 11 out of paint hangar + 2 in paint hangar + 1 flying before painting = 35 planes that should be delivered by end of November.

So to meet 50+, we need a) significant improvement in speed of execution and b) a hell of a december!


HK Expat said...

Any idea on the mystery aircraft in Stall 103?
Either UAL/77 never went into the paint hangar or LOT/78 is out of final assembly.