Thursday, September 13, 2012

787 delivery estimates for this fall

DISCLAIMER: PLEASE TAKE THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION WITH A HEALTHY DOSE OF SKEPTICISM AS DELIVERY DATES DO CHANGE DUE TO AIRLINE/AIRCRAFT/BOEING CIRCUMSTANCES OVER TIME. THIS IS NOT A DEFINITIVE DELIVERY SCHEDULE.

Update, first flight of ZA238 was indeed yesterday.

That said, I just got information on potential Sept., Oct. and possibly Nov. deliveries.  This list is incomplete and aircraft that are in final assembly or in  change incorporation may be added.

September

9/18 - United Airlines - ZA288 (LN 53, N20904)
9/20 - ANA - ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A)
9/20 - Qatar Airways - ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB)
9/23 - JAL - ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J)
9/25 - ANA - ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A)
9/26 - Ethiopian - ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR)

Air India (I put this in separate category because of the uncertainty of deliveries to this airline)

9/12 - ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) already past and expected sometime next week
9/19 - ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) indications are it will be TBD
9/28 - ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) indications expect that this will also be TBD, unconfirmed that it had its first flight on 9/4.
10/26 - ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) this may slip to TBD

October

10/18 - Ethiopian - ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS)
10/18 - Qatar Airways - ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL)
10/18 - LAN - ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB)
10/24 - Hainan Airlines - ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728)

Oct./Nov.

All dates are TBD for the following:

China Southern - ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727)
ANA - ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A)
Ethiopian - ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP)
United Airlines - ZA290 (LN 77, N26906)
Qatar Airways - ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA)
LOT Polish Airlines - ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA)






7 comments:

Rob said...

That gets them to 37 deliveries for the year + whatever they can get for December. If a few of the planes in final assembly make it and they can muster 4 others for December, they could get to 42 or 43 planes for 2012. That would be right on what Boeing projected at the beginning of the year.

Andrew Boydston said...

I appreciate your seasoning with salt. At some point time Boeing will pushing out the the door stale backlog along with fresh production models because of solved financing by customers, motivated customers on of getting market edge, and Boeing greasing the downhill ramps via destruction of uphill ramps its been using during the production of first generation aircraft. The uphill ramps are R&D Change, build change and plant capacity. When The red highlights turn green or tan, then the convergence of Boeing efficiency and customer finance will meet. After all demand is the constant factor. Variables are those described above.

Rick Lewis said...

is it possible to add a column to your spreadsheet showing when each plane exits the factory floor? It would be interesting to know how long each aircraft stays at Everett or Charleston before it is delivered. Thanks.

Michael Lowrey said...

Rob, the Boeing estimate was NOT 35 to 42 787s each this year but rather 70 to 85 747s and 787s about equally split between the two types. It's long been obvious that this figure included more 787s than 747s -- the 747s couldn't get above 35 in the best circumstances, so Boeing earlier this year was hoping to deliver as many as 50 787s. Boeing won't quite get there but if might still make the mid 40s.

Dave C said...

Will the b748 engine failure effect these deliveries are we likely to see a grounding of these aircraft?

Andrew Munsell said...

thanks Uresh

Przemysław Paja said...

Regarding LN61 (SP-LRA for LO) delivery, the airline CEO recently confirmed in Polish media that they plan to take delivery on either 11th or 12th of November, with aircraft arriving at Warsaw on the 15th.