Today, February 27,th 2011, the 787 flight test fleet surpassed another milestone by exceeding 3,000 flight test hours flown. It appears that ZA005 was the aircraft that put Boeing over the top when it flew a 6 hour and 40 minute test flight out of Boeing Field. It also appears that the GEnx/787 flight testing has exceed 600 flight test hours during the same flight.
Additionally, the Rolls Royce powered 787 test fleet surpassed 2,400 flight hours flown when ZA004 flew a 5 hour mission yesterday (Feb. 26th)
I expect that there would be a confirmation of this milestone by Boeing sometime tomorrow.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Boeing's statement on 1,000 flight milestone for the 787
Boeing PhotoFrom Boeing, nothing new versus what I have previously reported:
Boeing Completes 1,000th 787 Flight
EVERETT, Wash., Feb. 24, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787 Dreamliner made its 1,000th flight yesterday, marking another milestone in the flight test program. There are seven airplanes participating in flight testing. The landing of 787 flight test airplane ZA004, just after 1 p.m. MST at Yuma International Airport, counted as the official 1,000th flight.
The program is near its 3,000th hour of flying and 787s have flown a total of more than one million miles.
"The team is making great progress," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We are getting through the test conditions needed to certify this airplane with nearly 80 percent of the conditions for the first model, with Rolls-Royce engines, already complete. And, we're more than 60 percent of the way through the test conditions for the 787s with General Electric engines."
Capt. Mike Carriker, chief pilot for the 787, Boeing Test & Evaluation, said the airplane continues to behave well in testing.
"We're really eager to get this airplane through its flight testing so our customers can see for themselves this airplane's excellent performance," said Carriker.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Boeing 787 Flight Test surpasses 1,000 flights
Today the Boeing flight test fleet flew it's 1,000th flight when ZA004 took to the air from Yuma Marine Corp Air Station for a 30 minute test flight. To date, Boeing has conducted 1,004 test flights since the program started on De. 15, 2009. Boeing has picked up the flight test tempo and has been flying all the test flight airplanes though ZA102 which had joined the test flight fleet earlier this year has now been sequestered in an ATS Hangar for unknown reasons. It is there with ZA101 which is supposed to be conducting ground tests and this may indicate that Boeing is incorporating changes and/or repairs to these planes before they recommence testing activities.
Another milestone for the test flight fleet is on the horizon with 3,000 flight test hours looming. Currently Boeing has surpassed 2,969 flight test hours. I suspect that this milestone will be reached sometime this weekend as Boeing is starting the final push to complete flight testing.
Another milestone for the test flight fleet is on the horizon with 3,000 flight test hours looming. Currently Boeing has surpassed 2,969 flight test hours. I suspect that this milestone will be reached sometime this weekend as Boeing is starting the final push to complete flight testing.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Fourteen Months In...
It was around this time that Boeing had hoped to start deliveries of the 787 yet this time of the year still see the 787 still in flight test due to the fire that occurred on ZA002 as well as the uncontained engine failure of the Trent 1000 engine in Derby, UK. Yet in the past one month, Boeing has aggressively flew the 787 to the tune of over 395 flight hours. During media briefings on Monday, Boeing says that they are over 80% complete on the test flight flight program for the Trent powered 787 and 60% on the GEnx powered 787.
Of the other accomplishments or milestone, Boeing has received the updated power panels that will be installed on all the 787 though I'm not sure if the software fix is complete. Once these new power panels are installed Boeing should be cleared to start ETOPs testing.
Boeing also received the first set of package "B" Trent 1000 engines. These engines, I expect, will be installed on ZA004 for flight tests. As I had reported earlier, ZA004 will be out for about two weeks (Feb. 23 - March 11) in order to install and ground test the engines prior to resuming test flights.
Boeing is also expecting to add another production 787 (either ZA100 or ZA101) to help finish off some test flights though they are trying to get both these airplanes close to a final EIS configuration as possible and that will determine which airplane will join in functionality and reliability and ETOPs testing.
In the meanwhile 787 production still continues at 2/month with the first 787 for China Southern and the 34th 787 (ZA380) entering final assembly. Currently each airplane spends about 8 weeks going through the final assembly process though that pace is expected to increase by year end. The 35th 787 will enter final assembly on Feb. 28th (this being ZA236 for Air India).
Guy Norris: 787 test update
Aubrey Cohen: Boeing 787 Dreamliner is 80% through flight testing
Of the other accomplishments or milestone, Boeing has received the updated power panels that will be installed on all the 787 though I'm not sure if the software fix is complete. Once these new power panels are installed Boeing should be cleared to start ETOPs testing.
Boeing also received the first set of package "B" Trent 1000 engines. These engines, I expect, will be installed on ZA004 for flight tests. As I had reported earlier, ZA004 will be out for about two weeks (Feb. 23 - March 11) in order to install and ground test the engines prior to resuming test flights.
Boeing is also expecting to add another production 787 (either ZA100 or ZA101) to help finish off some test flights though they are trying to get both these airplanes close to a final EIS configuration as possible and that will determine which airplane will join in functionality and reliability and ETOPs testing.
In the meanwhile 787 production still continues at 2/month with the first 787 for China Southern and the 34th 787 (ZA380) entering final assembly. Currently each airplane spends about 8 weeks going through the final assembly process though that pace is expected to increase by year end. The 35th 787 will enter final assembly on Feb. 28th (this being ZA236 for Air India).
Guy Norris: 787 test update
Aubrey Cohen: Boeing 787 Dreamliner is 80% through flight testing
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Queen of the Skies...Always
Boeing PhotosToday, Boeing unveiled the newest member of the 747 family, the 747-8I. What wasn't very anticipated was the new lines of the aircraft since Boeing has been releasing photos of the assembly of the first 747-8I. The main buzz was surrounding the color scheme of the first airplane with some expecting a scheme similar to the one that is painted on the first 787 or one that is painted on the 747-8Fs that are currently in test flights.
Boeing revealed the 747 in a hybrid scheme of a red-orange colored 747 in the 787 Dreamliner paint scheme which they dubbed "Sunrise". The scheme is meant to symbolize the bridging of the gap between the original 747-100 (painted in red for its unveiling in the early 70's) which flew over 40 years ago and today's new 747.
The aircraft has since been towed to the Boeing flightline where it will undergo 6 weeks of preflight ground testing prior to its first flight expected at the end of March (latest word is around March 21st).
The second 747-8I to fly is an aircraft destined for Lufthansa in early 2012. This airplane should roll out in about a month and should be flying in late April. Both airplanes will conduct certification test flights over a 4 month period and encompassing about 600 flight test hours.
The 747-8 program has run into it share of difficulties partly due to the problems related to the 787 but also issues with regards to design which has stretched the testing and certification timeline out. Boeing is still planning to deliver the first 747-8I to the customer by the end of this year and to Lufthansa early next year. Here's Boeing's press release on the 747-8I unveiling:
Boeing Celebrates Premiere of New 747-8 Intercontinental
- Thousands gather for unveiling of only airplane to serve 400-500 seat market
- New 747 delivers unrivaled efficiency, new benchmark in environmental performance, welcoming interior for passengersEVERETT, Wash., Feb. 13, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) today unveiled its new 747-8 Intercontinental, the new high-capacity passenger airplane that offers airlines the lowest operating costs and best economics of any large passenger airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance.
Approximately 10,000 guests, including customers, Boeing employees, government officials, partners and suppliers, gathered in the factory in Everett, Wash., to witness the premiere of the Intercontinental at an event themed "Incredible, Again." Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and Chief Executive Officer Jim Albaugh said the newest 747 incorporates technological advancements that make it an extremely productive airplane for customers.
"The new 747-8 Intercontinental features the latest in innovative technologies — applying many of the breakthroughs also found on the 787 Dreamliner," said Albaugh. "We think our customers will value the low operating costs and passengers will enjoy the comfort of the striking new interior."
"The 747-8 Intercontinental will be a great complement to our fleet, fitting nicely into the 400-seat category, improving our fleet's eco-efficiency even further," said Nico Buchholz, executive vice president, Lufthansa Group Fleet Management. "As launch customer, we are looking forward to welcoming this new aircraft to our fleet next year as it adds to our ongoing fleet modernization and environmental efforts."
Korean Air and VIP customers have joined launch customer Lufthansa in ordering a total of 33 747-8 Intercontinentals. First delivery of the 747-8 Intercontinental is scheduled for the fourth quarter.
"As the only airplane in the 400 to 500-seat market, the 747-8 Intercontinental will give operators an airplane perfectly suited for long, heavily traveled routes around the world," said Pat Shanahan, vice president and general manager, Airplane Programs, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "The new 747-8 Intercontinental will set a new standard in economic and environmental performance, while providing a world-class passenger experience."
The 747-8 Intercontinental will have the lowest seat-mile cost of any large commercial jetliner, with 12 percent lower costs than its predecessor, the 747-400. The airplane provides 16 percent better fuel economy, 16 percent less carbon emissions per passenger and generates a 30 percent smaller noise footprint than the 747-400. The 747-8 Intercontinental applies interior features from the 787 Dreamliner that includes a new curved, upswept architecture giving passengers a greater feeling of space and comfort, while adding more room for personal belongings.
The airplane unveiled today is painted in a new Sunrise livery of red-orange that only will appear on the first 747-8 Intercontinental and is a significant departure from Boeing's standard blue. The new color palette honors many key Boeing customers whose cultures recognize these colors as symbols of prosperity and good luck.
Here's some links to others who had covered today's festivities in Everett:
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
ZA004 to get Trent package"B" engines later this month
Sources have confirmed to me that Boeing will be re-equipping ZA004 with the improve package "B" version of the Trent 1000 engine later this month. That engine has been undergoing testing on Rolls Royce's 747 engine test bed as well as at RR's engine test facilities for sometime now but installation on ZA004 was put off due to the fire on ZA002. Guy Norris summed up the package improvements nicely in an article from last September:
ZA004 is scheduled to receive the engines over a two week period (Feb. 23rd to March 11th). Previously, the installation and ground testing was to take about a month before resuming flights with the improved engines. If that schedule holds true this time around, then we could see ZA004 returning to the skies with the new engines around the last week of March. It will undertake much of the same testing that the 787 program conducted using the Trent 1000 package "A" as well as conducting ETOPs testing with the improved package "B" engines.Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000 built to the improved ‘Package B’ standard is designed to bring performance to within 1% of Boeing’s original specification. Package B includes enhanced aerodynamics in the six-stage low pressure (LP) turbine, improved cooling flow for the IP turbine and changes to the secondary air system to take off sealing and cooling air at a lower pressure stage. The root-to-tip twist of the fan blade is also slightly altered to match changes in the pressure ratio caused by a concurrent reduction in nozzle area. Rolls has run at least three Package B performance engines and, when last reporting on progress, says all were in line with expectations. In March Rolls was flight testing the first Package B engine on its company 747 flying testbed ahead of delivering finalized engines to Boeing for installation on ZA004.
Flying the Wings Off
The head of BCA, Jim Albaugh, said in May 2010 that Boeing would be "flying the wings off those airplanes" meaning the 787. Since then Boeing has had several set backs in trying to accomplish the rapid accumulation of flight test hours. The 787 flight test team was seemingly on its way to piling on the flight test (and ground test) hours during last fall but was abruptly halted with the fire on ZA002 on Nov. 9th.
Since the resumption of flight test Boeing has been aggressively ramping up flight tests especially after the FAA gave its ok to resume certification test flights. For example. in the one week between Jan. 24th and Jan. 31st, the Boeing test flight fleet flew almost 100 flight test hours. On Feb. 1st Boeing had 5 of the test flight airplanes flying, they accumulated about 16 hours in one day of flying. Obviously not all the flight tests will be dedicated to certification activities but Boeing clearly will be flying these airplanes more than 3,100 hours that they originally said that they would need to in order to properly test and certify the 787. Part of the reason for more test flight hours is that Boeing needs to test fly any changes and fixes that they are required to incorporate into the design.
As long as there aren't any mo major hiccups like the fire in November, Boeing should finish most of the non ETOPs flight testing by March. A source has confirmed that the schedule, as it stands today, should see the bulk of ETOPs testing in the period between March and May. The last certification test flights should occur around July though the bulk of the remaining certification flying will be done well before July.
The FAA and EASA will need a couple of months after the completion of flights to churn through the remaining data and issue the certification for the 787 to allow delivery by the end of September.
In the meantime, Boeing will continue to fly the wings off the 787 as it tries to meet the new schedule for certification and delivery.
Since the resumption of flight test Boeing has been aggressively ramping up flight tests especially after the FAA gave its ok to resume certification test flights. For example. in the one week between Jan. 24th and Jan. 31st, the Boeing test flight fleet flew almost 100 flight test hours. On Feb. 1st Boeing had 5 of the test flight airplanes flying, they accumulated about 16 hours in one day of flying. Obviously not all the flight tests will be dedicated to certification activities but Boeing clearly will be flying these airplanes more than 3,100 hours that they originally said that they would need to in order to properly test and certify the 787. Part of the reason for more test flight hours is that Boeing needs to test fly any changes and fixes that they are required to incorporate into the design.
As long as there aren't any mo major hiccups like the fire in November, Boeing should finish most of the non ETOPs flight testing by March. A source has confirmed that the schedule, as it stands today, should see the bulk of ETOPs testing in the period between March and May. The last certification test flights should occur around July though the bulk of the remaining certification flying will be done well before July.
The FAA and EASA will need a couple of months after the completion of flights to churn through the remaining data and issue the certification for the 787 to allow delivery by the end of September.
In the meantime, Boeing will continue to fly the wings off the 787 as it tries to meet the new schedule for certification and delivery.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Is Boeing almost all done with 787 flight testing?
Sometimes you get clues from the most interesting sources. In this case the clue is from Dinesh Keskar, president of Boeing India and a statement he made to the Hindustan Times. I'm not sure if it's true but if it is, then it is notable with regards to how much testing is left. Here's what was in the Hindustan Times:
Read the Hindustan article:
Hindustan Times: Boeing will deliver 787 Dreamliner to AI this year
The Dreamliner flight test programme, he said, was in full swing with the aircraft having completed 2500 hours and another 300 hours were needed to be done after which they will get the Federal Aviation Administration certificate.Boeing has since accumulated just under 2700 flight hours on the 787 (as of yesterday) which implies another 100 flight test hours. I have to take it with a grain of salt though. It is unclear if Dinesh Keskar was including any ETOPs testing in that 300 hours (which Boeing has not yet started). I tend to think that it is not included and that ETOPs testing will add a couple hundred more hours to the total. Still I'm waiting to hear back from Boeing as I did put this question to them.
“Once that is obtained, which we are expecting this summer, then we can begin deliveries all over the world,” he said.
Read the Hindustan article:
Hindustan Times: Boeing will deliver 787 Dreamliner to AI this year
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Flightblogger: First 787 delivery in September
Flightblogger, citing industry sources, says that Boeing will deliver the first 787 to ANA in September. During today's conference call Boeing reiterated it's intention to ramp up 787 output to 10/month by the end of 2013 for the current 2/month. Additionally, Boeing is saying that it will deliver roughly 20 787s this year though at this point it is unknown which 787s will be delivered though Flightblogger says ZA100, ZA101, and ZA102 (currently flying) are candidates to for delivery this year along with ZA177. Certainly I feel that most of the 787s delivered this year will go to ANA but a few will probably also be delivered to JAL and Air India is Boeing can manage 20 deliveries. As it stands about 20 to 25 787s need extensive re-work and Boeing has to devote significant resources to get these airplanes flight ready.
Also a very important question has been answered...Boeing will deliver the 787 with ETOPS certification though that certification work will have to wait after a permanent fix to the electrical issues that ZA002 encountered in November has to be implemented before that testing can proceed.
In other news Flightblogger also reported that ZA005 will be heading down to La Paz, Bolivia for high altitude take off and landing test after conducting similar tests at sea level in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.
You can read Flightbloggers two informative posts here:
Flightblogger: Sources: ANA to see its first 787 in September
Flightblogger: 787 heads south for the winter in search of high and low ground
Also a very important question has been answered...Boeing will deliver the 787 with ETOPS certification though that certification work will have to wait after a permanent fix to the electrical issues that ZA002 encountered in November has to be implemented before that testing can proceed.
In other news Flightblogger also reported that ZA005 will be heading down to La Paz, Bolivia for high altitude take off and landing test after conducting similar tests at sea level in Aguadilla, Puerto Rico.
You can read Flightbloggers two informative posts here:
Flightblogger: Sources: ANA to see its first 787 in September
Flightblogger: 787 heads south for the winter in search of high and low ground
787/747-8 Bullet Points from Boeing's Earnings Call
Boeing says they've completed 75% of required testing needed for delivery
787 high risk conditions mostly retired
787 production continues to improve
Currently 2/month production rate for 787
Still maintaining 787 10/month build rate by end of 2013
787-9 still targeted for delivery at end of 2013
747-8I first flight expected by end of March, 2011, first delivery still expected by end of year
Still expecting to deliver 747-8F by middle of 2011
Expect to be completed with 787 settlement negotiations with 787 suppliers by the end of the year
787 not in a forward loss position but profitability is under pressure
787 customer claim negotiations are still ongoing but are tracking to expectations
Expect 50/50 split between 787 and 747-8 deliveries this year (between 25 to 40 in total expected to be delivered)
Boeing expects 0 margins on early 787 and 747-8 deliveries (dilutive to 2011 earnings)
United says it expects its first 787 in 1Q12
787 ETOPS is fully in the schedule and will be delivered in 2011 with ETOPS certification
787 parts are coming in more completed then before
Boeing had a conservative view of 787 production ramp up but that margin is now eaten up with the slide in deliveries
Boeing has a clear view with 787 FAA certification.
ETOPS 0n 787 is different vs. 777 - fault and condition based for 787 ETOPS instead of cycle based for 777
Boeing and FAA are in agreement with testing requirements for ETOPS
Temporary fix of electrical issues is flying on 787s right now but permanent fix must be installed before ETOPS testing starts; most other testing is largely done
Boeing is still sorting out which 787 line number will be delivered first though they are close to finally figuring it out20 -25 787s need re-work. The later units are have levels of completion (currently at line 31).
There is some 787 schedule margin which is measured in weeks
Boeing Charleston assembly building is ahead of schedule
Boeing's 2010 Earnings Out
Boeing released their 2010 full year earnings this morning and they were negatively impacted by the problem in the 787 program. In terms of the 787 there wasn't much in the press release except for this one tid bit:
Boeing has about 16 747-8 built (including the first 747-8I) and assuming they build one per month will imply that Boeing may have about 28 747-8 built by the end of 2011. Currently Boeing has about 22 production 787s built. Assuming 2/month build rate for 6 months (12) and then 3/month build rate for the last 6 months (18) will give Boeing 52 787s built through the end of the year.
I think that the 747-8s production is in a better state compared to the 787 thus of the 787s and 747s to be delivered it would be more of the later. There is simply too much re-work to be done on the 787s that are already built and waiting on the Everett flight line. Boeing may opt to deliver the later build aircraft which are expected to be more fully completed and requiring little re-work to be done. If Boeing is to deliver 40 787s and 747s I think it would be about 25 747s and 15 787s. It will all depend on how fast they can re-work the 787s (and some of the 747s) as well as how smooth the production ramp up goes on the 787 line.
Boeing's 2010 earnings press release
Scott Hamilton just put out a piece on 747 and 787 deliveries, he feels that 18 747s are realistic but the number of 787s will be fewer than 22:
Scott Hamilton: Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year
Here are a couple of articles from Aspire Aviation and FleetbuzzEditorial.com following on the heels of Boeing's earnings announcement:
Aspire: Boeing posts mixed 2010 4th quarter, full year results
Saj Ahmad: Boeig 737 will be replaced not re-engined
Commercial Airplanes' 2011 deliveries guidance is expected to be between 485 and 500 airplanes and is sold out. It includes the first 787 and 747-8 deliveries (combined 25 to 40 units), which are expected to begin in the third quarter of 2011 and mid-2011, respectively.
Boeing has about 16 747-8 built (including the first 747-8I) and assuming they build one per month will imply that Boeing may have about 28 747-8 built by the end of 2011. Currently Boeing has about 22 production 787s built. Assuming 2/month build rate for 6 months (12) and then 3/month build rate for the last 6 months (18) will give Boeing 52 787s built through the end of the year.
I think that the 747-8s production is in a better state compared to the 787 thus of the 787s and 747s to be delivered it would be more of the later. There is simply too much re-work to be done on the 787s that are already built and waiting on the Everett flight line. Boeing may opt to deliver the later build aircraft which are expected to be more fully completed and requiring little re-work to be done. If Boeing is to deliver 40 787s and 747s I think it would be about 25 747s and 15 787s. It will all depend on how fast they can re-work the 787s (and some of the 747s) as well as how smooth the production ramp up goes on the 787 line.
Boeing's 2010 earnings press release
Scott Hamilton just put out a piece on 747 and 787 deliveries, he feels that 18 747s are realistic but the number of 787s will be fewer than 22:
Scott Hamilton: Boeing projects 20-40 747-8, 787 deliveries this year
Here are a couple of articles from Aspire Aviation and FleetbuzzEditorial.com following on the heels of Boeing's earnings announcement:
Aspire: Boeing posts mixed 2010 4th quarter, full year results
Saj Ahmad: Boeig 737 will be replaced not re-engined
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Guy Norris: ZA005 heading to Puerto Rico
As I had mentioned earlier, ZA005 is flying to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. At the time I wasn't sure what the test objectives are for ZA005 but Guy Norris has revealed that it is heading down to the Caribbean to undertake take off and landing tests. Boeing had the aircraft in New Mexico the last couple of days doing take off and landing tests at high altitude airport in Albuquerque. The airport at Aguadilla is at sea level.
Guy also goes into a flight test fleet update and states that ZA003 should be flying very soon as well. ZA006 is undertaking ground tests and should be flying again soon though no date is evident.
Guy Norris: Tropical Test for 787
Guy also goes into a flight test fleet update and states that ZA003 should be flying very soon as well. ZA006 is undertaking ground tests and should be flying again soon though no date is evident.
Guy Norris: Tropical Test for 787
Boeing North Charleston continues to take shape
Boeing's 787 facility in North Charleston continues to take shape. to the left is a screen grab from the builder's web cam showing it's progress through this morning.The plant is schedule to be completed by May with production on the first 787 to start in July and first delivery is scheduled for 1Q12.
787 Round Up
With Boeing's earnings call schedule for tomorrow, it is expected that there will be a lot of questions surrounding the 787 (schedule, certification, production and deliveries and on and on). Scott Hamilton has a nice update on his blog. One item he highlights is the ramp up to 10/months. He opines that Boeing will have trouble reaching that rate by the end of 2013 and feels that end of 2014 or into 2015 is more realistic.
Indeed it is looking that ramp up is going to be an issue. Boeing just started work on LN 32 (ZA235 for Air India) and LN 33 (ZA179 for JAL) won't be started until January 31st and LN 34 (ZA380, the first 787 for China Southern) will start final assembly on Feb. 14th. That's a 2/month production rate though I do expect that as the years wears on, this rate will increase (to what I don't know). You can read more of Scott Hamilton's post below:
Scott Hamilton: Odds and Ends: Big week for EADS, Boeing
In the same vein, Aviation Week reports Guy Norris and Mike Mecham wrote an extensive article regarding the 787 schedule. The main concerns remain what additional testing does the FAA require especially for ETOPs out of the box certification. The FAA has told Boeing that as it currently stands, the 787 won't get ETOPs certification until Boeing can prove the 787s reliability in light of the fire on ZA002 and the engine problems that Rolls Royce has encountered on the Trent 1000.
Aviation Week: Questions Remain About Boeing 787 Schedule
Boeing is trying to ramp up 787 test flights and currently has posted over 2600 of flight time over 850+ test flights. However, ZA003 and ZA006 have yet to resume test flights. It is unknown why they have not returned to test flights. Later this morning, ZA005 is schedule to make a test flight from Albuquerque, NM to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. We'll see if this flight actually does occur.
Indeed it is looking that ramp up is going to be an issue. Boeing just started work on LN 32 (ZA235 for Air India) and LN 33 (ZA179 for JAL) won't be started until January 31st and LN 34 (ZA380, the first 787 for China Southern) will start final assembly on Feb. 14th. That's a 2/month production rate though I do expect that as the years wears on, this rate will increase (to what I don't know). You can read more of Scott Hamilton's post below:
Scott Hamilton: Odds and Ends: Big week for EADS, Boeing
In the same vein, Aviation Week reports Guy Norris and Mike Mecham wrote an extensive article regarding the 787 schedule. The main concerns remain what additional testing does the FAA require especially for ETOPs out of the box certification. The FAA has told Boeing that as it currently stands, the 787 won't get ETOPs certification until Boeing can prove the 787s reliability in light of the fire on ZA002 and the engine problems that Rolls Royce has encountered on the Trent 1000.
Aviation Week: Questions Remain About Boeing 787 Schedule
Boeing is trying to ramp up 787 test flights and currently has posted over 2600 of flight time over 850+ test flights. However, ZA003 and ZA006 have yet to resume test flights. It is unknown why they have not returned to test flights. Later this morning, ZA005 is schedule to make a test flight from Albuquerque, NM to Aguadilla, Puerto Rico. We'll see if this flight actually does occur.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
First production 787 makes first flight
The first production 787 and the first 787 that will be delivered to ANA later this year made its first flight yesterday. ZA102 took off a little late at 3:53 PM PT and tested the landing gear actuation among other standard test that occurs on Boeing's B-1 flight test. Boeing said that aircraft landed as planned at Paine Field.
ZA102 will be tasked to conduct function and reliability testing and ETOPs testing though it is unknown when those tests will begin.
Boeing issued a press release after ZA102 landed:
Matt Cawby: ZA102 First Flight
Guy Norris has posted a blog report on ZA102 testing as well as the tempo of 787 flight testing:
Guy Norris: First 787 for ANA Takes Off
ZA102 will be tasked to conduct function and reliability testing and ETOPs testing though it is unknown when those tests will begin.
Boeing issued a press release after ZA102 landed:
Newest 787 Dreamliner Makes First FlightMatt Cawby shot video of ZA102's takeoff from Paine as well as photos of the aircraft's return.
The newest 787 - designated ZA102 - made its first flight today. The airplane took off from Paine Field at 3:53 p.m. (Pacific time) and landed just over one hour later at the same location (per the plan). ZA102 will be a temporary member of the flight test fleet and will be focused on helping to demonstrate 787 extended operations (ETOPS) and complete function and reliability testing. Earlier flight test airplanes were configured more uniquely for other testing required as part of the certification program.
Matt Cawby: ZA102 First Flight
Guy Norris has posted a blog report on ZA102 testing as well as the tempo of 787 flight testing:
Guy Norris: First 787 for ANA Takes Off
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Boeing's Busy News Day
The folks at Boeing have been having a pretty busy news weeks. First they announce the 787 return to certification test flight on Monday then yesterday they announce the new delivery start date for the 787. Today more news from Boeing.
They sold American Airlines 2 777-300ER. I think this is the first of many sales of that airplane to American Air. Then with Chinese President Hu visiting the US today, both US and China announced that China is buying $19bn of Boeing airplanes (200 in total). Trouble is that these planes we sold and booked between 2007 and 2010. Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times called the order "political window dressing" for the US-China summit.
The 787 continues with flight tests as ZA001, ZA002, ZA003 (returning to test flights) and ZA005 are all flying today. A very welcomed addition, ZA102, is scheduled to fly at about 2:10PM today (local time) in B-1 flight from Paine Field to Mosses Lake and back to Paine. This is the first production 787 to fly and will be used to help certify the ETOPs rating for the 787 which, according to Dominic Gates, maybe running into trouble.
Part of Boeing's plan for the 787 was to have it ETOPs certified right out of the box upon delivery to customers. With the fire last November the FAA is very reluctant to give Boeing that certification unless the company can demonstrate that the airplane can operate reliably over transpacific and transatlantic routes far from airports in case of an engine failure or any other mechanical problem that may force the aircraft to land early.
That certification is important to many customers who ordered the aircraft based on its fuel efficiency and it's ability to operate long distances from airports on point to point travel. Boeing indicated in its press release that they have built in additional margin for any additional testing that maybe required to prove the reliability of the 787 on long duration flights. Dominic Gates is reporting that the additional margin (thought to be about 3 months) may not be enough and that it may lead to additional delays though Boeing and the FAA remain in discussion about the scope of additional flight testing needed in order to achieve ETOPS out of the box certification. Boeing may add another production 787 to the ETOPS test flights in order to accomplish this.
Dominic Gates: FAA could spike Boeing's new 787 delivery schedule
The new schedule only answered one question: when is Boeing going to start 787 deliveries, but there are whole host of questions that need to be asked and answered before people would feel that Boeing has a handle on the remaining issues surrounding the 787. Flightblogger has got a list started but I would like the readers to add to those questions in form of a comment left on this posting.
Flightblogger: Quick Take: More questions than answers with eighth 787 schedule
ANA the launch customer, is obviously very concerned about this and is now asking Boeing for delivery assurances for the delivery schedule as well as detailed schedule for each of its 55 787s they have on order from Boeing. So far Qatar Airways is sticking with them and Boeing will be entering talks with Korean Air about their 787 delivery schedule (as it will with the other customers obviously).
Aviation Week: ANA to demand 787 delivery assurances
Now on top of all the news out of Boeing comes on tid bit on information from Airbus. They're apparently are having problems on A350. Word from Airbus is that they're delaying the start of final assembly on the first A350 from third quarter of 2011 to the end of 2011. Amazingly it seems they think they could conduct first flight by mid 2012 even accounting for a 9 month final assembly. Something there doesn't quite add up. Airbus has delayed delivery of the first A350 to Qatar Airways from early 3Q13 to late 4Q13. That's about a 6 month slip. I fear that there will be additional delays in store for this aircraft which may amount to an additional year delay in the delivery timeline.
Flightglobal: Airbus pushes A350 final assembly back to end-2011
They sold American Airlines 2 777-300ER. I think this is the first of many sales of that airplane to American Air. Then with Chinese President Hu visiting the US today, both US and China announced that China is buying $19bn of Boeing airplanes (200 in total). Trouble is that these planes we sold and booked between 2007 and 2010. Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times called the order "political window dressing" for the US-China summit.
The 787 continues with flight tests as ZA001, ZA002, ZA003 (returning to test flights) and ZA005 are all flying today. A very welcomed addition, ZA102, is scheduled to fly at about 2:10PM today (local time) in B-1 flight from Paine Field to Mosses Lake and back to Paine. This is the first production 787 to fly and will be used to help certify the ETOPs rating for the 787 which, according to Dominic Gates, maybe running into trouble.
Part of Boeing's plan for the 787 was to have it ETOPs certified right out of the box upon delivery to customers. With the fire last November the FAA is very reluctant to give Boeing that certification unless the company can demonstrate that the airplane can operate reliably over transpacific and transatlantic routes far from airports in case of an engine failure or any other mechanical problem that may force the aircraft to land early.
That certification is important to many customers who ordered the aircraft based on its fuel efficiency and it's ability to operate long distances from airports on point to point travel. Boeing indicated in its press release that they have built in additional margin for any additional testing that maybe required to prove the reliability of the 787 on long duration flights. Dominic Gates is reporting that the additional margin (thought to be about 3 months) may not be enough and that it may lead to additional delays though Boeing and the FAA remain in discussion about the scope of additional flight testing needed in order to achieve ETOPS out of the box certification. Boeing may add another production 787 to the ETOPS test flights in order to accomplish this.
Dominic Gates: FAA could spike Boeing's new 787 delivery schedule
The new schedule only answered one question: when is Boeing going to start 787 deliveries, but there are whole host of questions that need to be asked and answered before people would feel that Boeing has a handle on the remaining issues surrounding the 787. Flightblogger has got a list started but I would like the readers to add to those questions in form of a comment left on this posting.
Flightblogger: Quick Take: More questions than answers with eighth 787 schedule
ANA the launch customer, is obviously very concerned about this and is now asking Boeing for delivery assurances for the delivery schedule as well as detailed schedule for each of its 55 787s they have on order from Boeing. So far Qatar Airways is sticking with them and Boeing will be entering talks with Korean Air about their 787 delivery schedule (as it will with the other customers obviously).
Aviation Week: ANA to demand 787 delivery assurances
Now on top of all the news out of Boeing comes on tid bit on information from Airbus. They're apparently are having problems on A350. Word from Airbus is that they're delaying the start of final assembly on the first A350 from third quarter of 2011 to the end of 2011. Amazingly it seems they think they could conduct first flight by mid 2012 even accounting for a 9 month final assembly. Something there doesn't quite add up. Airbus has delayed delivery of the first A350 to Qatar Airways from early 3Q13 to late 4Q13. That's about a 6 month slip. I fear that there will be additional delays in store for this aircraft which may amount to an additional year delay in the delivery timeline.
Flightglobal: Airbus pushes A350 final assembly back to end-2011
American Airlines becomes first US buyer of Boeing's 777-300ER
Boeing and American Airlines said this morning that they will be purchasing two new 777-300ER airplanes. This has been rumored for sometime though I was expecting more than two. AA will be the first US airline to purchase and utilize the 777-300ER, an aircraft known for it great fuel efficiency.
I can see this aircraft being used on routes like Chicago-Tokyo of JFK to London where American can use the higher capacity aircraft like the 777-300ER. AMR says they expect the two aircraft to be delivered in late 2012.
Here's Boeing's press release:
I can see this aircraft being used on routes like Chicago-Tokyo of JFK to London where American can use the higher capacity aircraft like the 777-300ER. AMR says they expect the two aircraft to be delivered in late 2012.
Here's Boeing's press release:
Boeing, American Airlines Complete Contract for Two 777-300ERs
American Airlines becomes the first U.S. airline to order the 777-300ERSEATTLE, Jan. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and American Airlines today announced the Fort Worth, Texas-based carrier has exercised options for two 777-300ERs (extended range).
"American Airlines is an industry leader whose vision and disciplined approach to growth has made it one of the largest airlines in the world," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Jim Albaugh. "American is the first carrier in the United States to order the 777-300ER. These new airplanes will complement their large fleet of 777-200ERs offering additional flexibility in serving the nonstop routes, while providing increased efficiency and reliability."
The Boeing 777 is the world's most successful twin-engine, long-haul airplane. The 777-300ER extends the 777 family's span of capabilities, bringing twin-engine efficiency and reliability to the long-range market.
"These additional wide-body aircraft will bolster our network strategy, particularly the international growth opportunities we expect from our joint businesses with oneworld® partners in the transatlantic and transpacific markets," said Tom Horton, President, AMR Corp., the parent company of American Airlines and American Eagle. "We value the combination of size, range and performance of the 777-300ER, as well as the extensive customer amenities it offers. The seating capability of the aircraft will give us growth flexibility in slot-constrained airports and provide us with greater ability to serve new long-haul markets."
The Boeing 777-300ER is 19 percent lighter than its closest competitor. It produces 22 percent less carbon dioxide per seat and costs 20 percent less to operate per seat. The airplane can seat up to 365 passengers in a three-class configuration and has a maximum range of 7,930 nautical miles (14,685 km). The 777 family is the world's most successful twin-engine, twin-aisle airplane.
Boeing incorporated several performance enhancements for the 777-300ER, extending its range and payload capabilities. Excellent performance during flight testing, combined with engine efficiency improvements and design changes that reduce drag and airplane weight, contributed to the increased capability.
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
An apology to Heidi Wood
Back in November when Heidi Wood published a research report detailing that 787 deliveries may not take place until mid 2011 to early 2012.
I had criticized her in a blog post soon after that and I want to say that I was wrong to do that and to sincerely apologize for my criticism. People like Heidi publish research based on the best available information that they have and yes, they put themselves out there for criticism each time they publish an article or make prognostications about the companies they cover. I should have been more careful with my words despite my difference in opinion with her assessment at the time.
I had criticized her in a blog post soon after that and I want to say that I was wrong to do that and to sincerely apologize for my criticism. People like Heidi publish research based on the best available information that they have and yes, they put themselves out there for criticism each time they publish an article or make prognostications about the companies they cover. I should have been more careful with my words despite my difference in opinion with her assessment at the time.
Round up of 787 News
Over the last couple of days, news regarding the 787 has been coming in fast. From the resolution of compensation to Spirit over its share of 787 work to this morning's announcement with the revised 787 schedule. I've posted links to some of articles and blog posts that have come out in the last few days.
One thing that should be mentioned though (that I didn't talk about in my previous post) is the crowded flightline at Boeing. Because of the new delivery date and the growing lack of ramp space at Everett, Boeing may be forced to slow down production in order to get the airplanes built prepared to be ferried to San Antonio for further rework and change incorporation. These preparations may take some time thus forcing Boeing to slowdown production. We would have to wait and see if that indeed happens. With ZA102, hopefully flying today, it may allow Boeing and the FAA to work out compromise whereby the already completed 787s can be fixed up and flown out of Everett to San Antonio and thus freeing up space to continue production.
Another interesting issue that comes up is delivery order. Boeing may deliver some of the later production models (as they would little to no rework or change incorporation). This would help with financial margins as well as continuing to free up ramp space at Everett.
Here are the links of interest:
Guy Norris: 787 Engine Update
Flightblogger: FAA returns to 787 flights, maiden production sortie, ZA002 flying Monday
Guy Norris: Boeing resumes 787 certification Testing
Dominic Gates: Boeing 787 resumes test flights for FAA Approval
Saj Ahmad: Summer Delivery on Cards for 787?
Saj Ahmad: Boeing 787 - Certification Finish Line In Sight?
Guy Norris: 787 Deliveries Slide to Third Quarter
One thing that should be mentioned though (that I didn't talk about in my previous post) is the crowded flightline at Boeing. Because of the new delivery date and the growing lack of ramp space at Everett, Boeing may be forced to slow down production in order to get the airplanes built prepared to be ferried to San Antonio for further rework and change incorporation. These preparations may take some time thus forcing Boeing to slowdown production. We would have to wait and see if that indeed happens. With ZA102, hopefully flying today, it may allow Boeing and the FAA to work out compromise whereby the already completed 787s can be fixed up and flown out of Everett to San Antonio and thus freeing up space to continue production.
Another interesting issue that comes up is delivery order. Boeing may deliver some of the later production models (as they would little to no rework or change incorporation). This would help with financial margins as well as continuing to free up ramp space at Everett.
Here are the links of interest:
Guy Norris: 787 Engine Update
Flightblogger: FAA returns to 787 flights, maiden production sortie, ZA002 flying Monday
Guy Norris: Boeing resumes 787 certification Testing
Dominic Gates: Boeing 787 resumes test flights for FAA Approval
Saj Ahmad: Summer Delivery on Cards for 787?
Saj Ahmad: Boeing 787 - Certification Finish Line In Sight?
Guy Norris: 787 Deliveries Slide to Third Quarter
Breaking: Boeing announces first 787 delivery in 3rd quarter 2011
As expected Boeing has announced a new delivery schedule for the first 787 to ANA. The delays in an additional 7 and half months beyond the last revised date of mid February. The revised delivery schedule takes into account the need to fix aircraft and prepare them for delivery along with any additional test points that the FAA will require Boeing to perform in wake of the fire last November.
It's no secret that Boeing also has plenty of work to do to get the airplanes that are already assembled and lined up on the flightline reworked for delivery to customers. Boeing is saying that the revised delivery schedule will not have an impact to the 2010 financial results (naturally since Boeing had last put the first delivery to mid first quarter of 2011) and that they will discuss financial guidance from the impact of the revised delivery timeline in the company's earnings conference call next week.
At the end of the day Boeing still has a lot of certification testing that they need to finish along with all the rework that awaits the 20+ 787s that are spread across Everett. Boeing also needed to build in more margin in case there are any additional issues that could crop up but at this point who knows what could come up and what kind of impact it would have.
Here is Boeing's statement:
Boeing Sets 787 First Delivery for Third Quarter
EVERETT, Wash., Jan. 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) announced today that it expects delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner in the third quarter of this year. The new delivery date reflects the impact of an in-flight incident during testing last November and includes the time required to produce, install and test updated software and new electrical power distribution panels in the flight test and production airplanes.
"This revised timeline for first delivery accommodates the work we believe remains to be done to complete testing and certification of the 787," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We've also restored some margin in the schedule to allow for any additional time that may be needed to complete certification activities," Fancher said.
The 787 program has been gradually returning individual airplanes to the flight test program. After receiving interim software and hardware improvements, four flight test airplanes have been subjected to extensive ground testing and a thorough review to ensure their readiness to return to flight. The remaining two airplanes will be returning to flight in the days ahead to bring the full flight test fleet back up to flight status.
The revised first delivery date is not expected to have a
material impact on 2010 financial results. Financial guidance and anticipated
initial 787 deliveries for 2011 will be discussed in the company's earnings call
on Jan. 26.
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