787 production continues; Boeing draw first blood in Dubai

With Dubai 2011 underway, Boeing has drawn first blood with a huge order from Emirates.

But first some 787 tidbits.

Boeing sent two of it's 787 test planes on international marketing trips. ZA001 is flying to various 787 customer destinations to show the aircraft around the world. First stop is New Zealand where Air New Zealand is to induct the first 787-9 into it's fleet in a little over 2 years from now. It will go on to Australia from there where Jetstar and QANTAS will take delivery starting in 2013. ZA003 is now flying with a full passenger interior with the test workstations and other flight test equipment removed. It also is sporting a new paint job which is a hybrid of the Dreamliner livery that Boeing painted on ZA001.

Meanwhile, back in Boeing has pushed another 787 out the door and has reallocated several 787 to other airlines. L/N 50 and L/N 51 are currently on the final assembly floor and each has been reallocated to United and ANA respectively . They were to have gone to Ethiopian and LAN but were changed for unknown reasons. With the start of assembly on L/N 51 Boeing is on it's way of 2.5 787s per month with the target of 3.5 to occur sometime in early 2012.

One of the early build 787s appears to have completed the change incorporation and re-work. That airplane is L/N 23 (ZA177) which is destined for Japan Airlines. The aircraft took a check test flight on Nov. 11th and was ferried back to Everett on the 13th. It still does not have a customer interior but that work will be done in Everett along with testing of the interior and then Boeing and customer test flights prior to delivery. Given that work, Boeing can deliver this plane to JAL by the end of December or early January, 2012 depending on the remaining certification activities that need to be completed on the GEnx-1B powered 787. I am still maintaining my short term view that Boeing should be able to deliver 6 more 787 in December (no November deliveries). Most if not all these deliveries will be later production airplanes for ANA with a later production GEnx airplane added in.

Speaking of which, ZA006 continues F&R and ETOPS testing. Last word from Boeing was that GEnx-1B testing was 95% complete so I do anticipate that Boeing can complete all certification testing by the end of this month will the aim of having first delivery by the end of December to either JAL or Air India.





Dubai 2011


The Dubai Air Show got of to a bang with a huge order by Emirates for 50 777-300ERs. The bang not only came in the size of the order $18bn at list prices, or the fact that this is Boeing's largest commercial aircraft order by value or that it will make Emirates the largest user of the 777. The big bang came in the message this order sent to Airbus. It has been no secret that the market really hasn't accepted the A350-1000 as a viable competitor to the 777-300ER. The market response after launching the A350 coupled with the feeble attempt by Airbus and Rolls Royce to improve the aircraft earlier this year and the 2 year delay (with possibly more delays to come) has angered customers for the airplane, namely Qatar and Emirates. Thus this order at the start of the airshow was meant as a message to Airbus about the status of the A350-1000. Additionally, the A350-1000 is barely a better airplane than the Boeing offering but with the proposed 777-8X/9X (on which Emirates has been working closely with Boeing) thus this latest order would allow Emirates to easily introduce the next iteration of the 777 as this latest order is delivered towards the end of the decade. I wouldn't be surprised if Emirates has a conversion feature in the contract that allows them to convert to the newer model after Boeing launches the airplane with delivery aimed for 2020.


Airbus did get into the order column with an order for 50 A320NEOs from ALAFCO. This same lessor announced today that they sold 6 or their 787 orders to Oman Air. So this order with Oman is really a non-order order. Boeing is still adding more MoUs for the 737 MAX. The count is 700 airplanes spread across 9 customers with only American Airlines the only named customer of those 9. I don't expect any of these MoUs to be firmed before the end of the year but most if not all should be firmed by the end of 1st quarter 2012 in addition to any new customers that would have signed on by then.


Dubai 2011 Totals


Airbus


ALAFCO - 50 x A320NEO (+30 options)

Boeing

Emirates - 50 x 777-300ER (+20 options)

Updated 787 Final Assembly Start Dates

I just got some new production start dates for the next few 787s (up to L/N 53). L/N 50 was the latest 787 to start final assembly (started on Oct. 27th). Here are the following final assembly start dates:

L/N 51 - Nov. 10 (14 days)
L/N 52 - Nov. 22 (12 days)
L/N 53 - Dec. 6 (14 days but take back on day for the Thanksgiving Holiday, 13 days)

In order to be producing at a 2.5 aircraft rate, Boeing needs to start final assembly on a new 787 every 12 days (excluding holidays and assuming a 30 day month). It looks like they're trying to get there but I was expecting L/N 51 to start final asembly a couple of days sooner.

Future 787 Deliveries, an opinion

Now that 787 deliveries have started, many are wondering what 787 deliveries will look like going forward. I've put together a quick spreadsheet in Google Docs to estimate the number of deliveries Boeing can possibly make from now to the end of 2012. I'm taking into account the current inventory of 787s that Boeing has assembled but still has to finish change incorporation, 787s that have yet to finish final assembly and also go through change incorporation, and finally 787s that have yet to be assembled but would not have to go through the change incorporation process.

In deriving this delivery curve I've had to make a few assumptions.

• 1) Assume that airplanes 7 to 60 will undergo some type of change incorporation/re-work. Boeing has said that they expect that all changes that have flowed up the supply chain would have been incorporated by airplane 60.
• 2) The more recently completed 787s will not have to go through as much change incorporation/re-work compared to the earlier completed aircraft.
• 3) Boeing cannot put too much resources to completing all the aircraft that need work thus the very long timeline to liquidate the inventory backlog.
• 4) Production rate is assumed as follows: 2.5/month from November 2011 to June 2012, 3/month from July, 2012 to August, 2012, 3.5/month from September, 2012 to October, 2012, and 4/month from November 2012 to December 2012.
• 5) All 787 that are assembled starting in March 2012 are assumed to be ready for delivery after painting and pre-acceptance test flights by Boeing and the customer. It is assumed that these newly assembled aircraft would not need any change incorporation or re-work after leaving the factory.

Analysis of results

Currently Boeing has 35 airplanes which have completed the majority of final assembly and are in various stages of re-work and storage around Everett. There are two more 787s in San Antonio that are undergoing change incorporation and four more airplanes that are being assembled. This is a total of 41 airplanes in Everett. I expect no 787 deliveries in November (though that could change) but 6 deliveries in December including 5 to ANA which I expect to be a mix of early and late build aircraft as well as the first GEnx powered 787.

After that the deliveries would start out in 2012 at 3/month slowly rising to 8 per month in April and staying steady for about 5 months. This is basically the time that Boeing is flushing the inventory pipeline but also delivering newly built 787s fresh out of the final assembly hall. This number starts to decrease and taper off to a point that all aircraft that are delivered are ones that are coming off the assembly line. Given that I expect Boeing to go through the inventory within one year (52 airplanes), I projecting that Boeing can deliver 83 787s between now and Dec. 31st, 2012. Undoubtedly, Boeing has probably done a more detailed analysis than I have but this is something which I hope can provoke a discussion.

787 officially starts earning revenue; Boeing drops 787/747 delivery forecast for 2011...again

787 Entry into Service

The 787 Dreamliner officially entered into airline revenue service with ANA flight 7871 flying from Narita, Tokyo to Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok International Airport. The start of revenue service allows the opportunity to hear about the passenger experience from those not connected to the airline or to the manufacturer. Initial passenger reaction has been very positive especially with the dimmable windows as well as the noise level of the aircraft. One of Boeing's aims was to greatly improve the passenger experience while on board the airplane and it seems that they have accomplished just that. Overall this is a very promising start the the 787s service life though it's only one flight. Boeing has prepared for this day over the course of 7 years and with the delays have aimed to mature many of the systems that are on the 787.

Orders and Deliveries

the last month has been a mixed bag for Boeing in terms of orders and deliveries for Boeing. They did deliver the first two 787s to ANA and has supported the airline's efforts to put the airplane into service but the news from the order's front does dampen some of the enthusiasm stemming from the start of deliveries. China Eastern Airlines has cancelled their order for 24 787s and has decided to take 45 737s. Boeing has since said that they expect more cancellations though they would give a number. One of those might be a partial cancellation by Air India. The financially troubled airline which is run by government bureaucrats instead of airline executives, has concluded that they ordered too many aircraft when they placed a huge widebody order with Boeing in 2005. They want to cut the 787 order by more than half to 12 airplanes from the original 27 that they have on order. Presumably Boeing and Air India have entered into discussions about the 787 order but currently Boeing has several 787 already built and undergoing change incorporation. Two of them also have engines hung.

ANA did announce that they expect to have 7 Dreamliner's delivered to them by the end of the year (thanks to Flightblogger for Tweeting that particular bit of news). This bit of news is very interesting given Boeing's announcement this morning that they will deliver 15-20 787s and 747-8 this year. The reason for the reduction in estimated deliveries is due to the amount of time needed for change incorporation. During the earnings conference call, Boeing estimated that about 2/3 of this range will be 747-8 deliveries and the rest 787-8. This two pieces of information indicates that Boeing will probably deliver 5-8 787 (with 8 being the more likely number) and 10-12 747-8. Of the 8 787s delivered, I believe there will be 7 going to ANA and one GEnx aircraft possibly to Air India. Given the dynamics of the Air India situation and the pace of re-work on the $18bn of 787 inventory sitting at Everett, the number delivered will be very fluid.

I have received information that as of now Boeing is not planning any 787 deliveries for November though that may change. A reasonable measure of how close a 787 is to being delivered is when the aircraft has been fitted with its engines. Currently only a handful of 787s have their engines attached including two that were flown to Boeing's facility at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas. There are probably three other airplanes that I know of that have engines attached (LN 31, LN 35 and possibly LN 38). There are 5 other airplanes including 3 for ANA that are in the Everett Modification Center (EMC or otherwise known as ATS) that are undergoing re-work and could quite possibly have their engines on. These are later build airplanes (LN 40, LN 41, and LN 42) which don't require much re-work to be ready for service. It is quite possible that these airplanes would be ready for delivery in late November to December. Other airplanes that would be ready for delivery include LN 7 and LN 9 which was used for Boeing's ETOPs and F&R testing.

Speaking of re-work, Boeing is reporting improved build of parts that are flowing into Everett and they are projecting that the production system will reach a point where most if not all change incorporation will not be needed by airplane 60.

Production and Testing

First the testing update. Boeing reported that the testing program on the GEnx-1B powered 787 is well into the F&R/ETOPs phase and overall they are 95% complete with testing of this model. ZA006 is the only aircraft that is dedicated to F&R/ETOPS testing as Boeing is not using a production standard aircraft for this testing (they probably convinced the FAA that it is not necessary to use a production standard aircraft for some reason).

Additionally, ZA004 which has been conducting flight tests with the Trent 1000 package "B" engines has probably wrapped up most of the flight testing (it has not flown since Oct. 19) though I don't know if they have to do ETOPS/F&R testing using the modified engines or not. Boeing is planning to deliver the first 787 equipped with the package "B" Trent 1000 sometime in December as it will be these 787s that ANA will start using on long haul international flights.

Now on to production. Now that Boeing has most of the 787-8 flight testing and development out of the way, they can proceed with focusing on reducing inventory ($18bn now) and ramping up assembly. Certainly having the North Charleston line open will help but right now many of the techs there are building LN 46 very slowly as they are in the process of learning their job. However, Boeing needs to clear the 40 some odd 787s that are listed as work in process (WIP). 38-39 are at Everett while two more are at San Antonio. Change incorporation is going slowly especially with the early build aircraft that I anticipate that most of the WIP aircraft won't be cleared until late next year. However Boeing did announce that they will be increasing the 787 production rate to 2.5/month starting this week (I'm projecting this Sunday) starting with LN 50 which is for Ethiopian Airlines. It seems that Boeing is planning for another rate increase very soon after going to 2.5 as they are reporting that the supplier base is positioned for further rate hikes very soon though timing and rate of these increases is still a matter of speculation. I'm thinking that Boeing can increase the rate to 3 or 3.5 by February. Boeing is still reiterating their position that they will be able to produce 10 787/month by the end of 2013. After that rate has stabilized over a course of 1 to 2 years Boeing sees that 787 unit revenue will exceed unit cost by around 2014-2015. The program won't be profitable after about 10 years of production. They have now set their accounting block for the 787 program at 1,100 units (they are spreading all development costs across 1,100 airplanes). Of course this is all predicated on Boeing reaching the 10/month goal by the end of 2013.

The story of two press releases

There is a story between the lines of the two press release (actually one) sent out by Cargolux and Boeing. To boil it all down, there is animosity over what happened last month and it reflected in what was said and what wasn't said. Here are the two releases. The first was not a press release but blog posting by Boeing's marketing chief, Randy Tinseth:

Delivery day for Cargolux
I’m happy to announce that we’ve resolved the contractual issues that delayed the first delivery of our new 747-8 Freighter last month. I’m even happier to let you know that Cargolux will take delivery of their first freighter today (October 12) and immediately put it into service with a stop at Sea-Tac Airport for a cargo pickup. On Thursday, Cargolux will take delivery of its second 747-8F.

Even though we had to wait a bit longer than expected, it doesn’t make these deliveries any less sweet. We know Cargolux and every customer after them will love this airplane in every way—from how it flies to how it performs.

I’d like to personally congratulate every employee who had a hand in working on this beautiful new symbol of Boeing. We all look forward to seeing it take to the sky as an official member of the Cargolux fleet.

Here's Cargolux's statement:

Cargolux successfully resolves contractual issuesLuxembourg,

12th October 2011

Cargolux announced today that the delivery of the first two Boeing 747-8
Freighters initially scheduled for 19 and 21 September is proceeding on 12 and
13 October 2011 following the resolution of contractual issues between Boeing,
GE and Cargolux related to the performance of the aircraft and the engines.
In its meeting on 7 October, the Cargolux Board of Directors appreciated
that the negotiation team (Akbar al Baker (Director), Frank Reimen (President
and Chief Executive Officer) and David Arendt (Executive Vice President and
Chief Financial Officer)) and Company management took the appropriate actions to
ensure that the 747-8 entry into service issues be resolved successfully.
Frank Reimen, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cargolux, said: ‘I am
pleased that we have reached agreement on the contractual issues. The 747-8
Freighter will be a driver of profitable growth for Cargolux’.
Launch customer Cargolux has 13 Boeing 747-8 Freighter airplanes on firm order.
As an enhanced variant of the 747-400 cargo aircraft, the new-generation 747-8
Freighter offers a variety of benefits over its predecessor, including
additional payload, less fuel burn and carbon emissions and a considerably lower
noise footprint.

Nowhere in either statement does either company congratulate the other. Randy thanks the employees of Boeing who designed and built the aircraft whereas the Cargolux statement thanks the CEO Frnak Reimen, CFO David Arendt and first and never least, Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) for leading the negotiations. Funny enough that Cargloux does acknowledge the better fuel burn over the 747-400. The last telling clue about the now strained relationship is that there was no ceremony celebrating the first delivery of this airplane like there was for the 787 and that there appears to be a "stealth delivery" with no mention from either side that it was taking place until after the Flightaware notifications went out.

I do think Boeing will eventually hold an appropriate ceremony when the next customer 747-8F is delivered (which I believe to be Cathay Pacific Cargo) if anything to put this awful experience behind them. At least U-Tuen Al won't be there to spoil the celebrations.

Cargolux might be taking delivery of first 747-8F today

UPDATE: Boeing just confirmed (through Randy Tiseth's "Randy's Journal" not a press release) that Cargolux is taking delivery of it's first 747-8F and it will fly ti Sea-Tac to pick up its first load of cargo and will conduct its first revenue flight. Boeing will deliver the 2nd airplane to Cargolux tomorrow.

Here's Randy Tinseth's post:

Delivery day for Cargolux
I’m happy to announce that we’ve resolved the contractual issues that delayed the first delivery of our new 747-8 Freighter last month. I’m even happier to let you know that Cargolux will take delivery of their first freighter today (October 12) and immediately put it into service with a stop at Sea-Tac Airport for a cargo pickup. On Thursday, Cargolux will take delivery of its second 747-8F.

Even though we had to wait a bit longer than expected, it doesn’t make these deliveries any less sweet. We know Cargolux and every customer after them will love this airplane in every way—from how it flies to how it performs.

I’d like to personally congratulate every employee who had a hand in working on this beautiful new symbol of Boeing. We all look forward to seeing it take to the sky as an official member of the Cargolux fleet.

Cargolux may be taking delivery of its first 747-8F today in what might be the first stealth delivery of a new airplane program. The only clue is a flight plan through a Flightware.com posting:


Cargolux Airlines International #1JS (B748) has just filed a flight plan. It
is scheduled to depart from Snohomish County (KPAE) at 11:00 PDT heading for
Seattle-Tacoma Intl (KSEA) for an estimated arrival at 11:16 PDT.

Expected route: ERYKA MGNUM ANVIL SODOE

For more information visit http://flightaware.com/live/flight/CLX1JS

Visit http://flightaware.com/mobile to download FlightAware's all-new mobile
apps for Android, iPhone, iPad, BlackBerry, and WP7!

To edit or disable these alerts please visit http://flightaware.com/account/manage/alerts/

Cargolux's plan after taking delivery of the first 747-8F was to fly it to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport where it would pick up its first revenue cargo load and immediately begin revenue service. This aircraft's flight plan is to fly from Paine Field to Sea-Tac. Boeing, GE, Cargolux and Qatar Airways are close to hashing out a final agreement and Qatar Airways chief Akbar Al-Baker (U-Turn Al) has said that Oct. 12th was a target date to accept delivery.

Special Delivery - The first delivery of the 787

Today Boeing and ANA completed the contractual delivery of the first 787 which meant that the formal delivery acceptance documents were signed and ANA paid the final installment for ZA101 (LN8). There will be a ceremonial handover on Monday in an elaborate ceremony...no word on if there's a special musical guest for this one but the paperwork was signed today and the aircraft now officially belongs to ANA who will fly it to Haneda on Tuesday. Boeing has also flown ZA103 (LN24), the next 787 to be delivered to ANA, on Sept. 24. It is scheduled for its delivery around mid October.

Currently, delivery of the 747-8F to Cargolux is still on hold though the two Cargolux airplanes have been making test flights in recent days. Despite the cancellation of Atlas Air's three early 747-8F, Cathay Pacific Cargo said that they are satisfied with the 747-8F and intend to go ahead with deliveries starting later this fall.


CNBC is also having a special on the 787 called “Dreamliner: Inside the World’s Most Anticipated Airplane” premiering on Tuesday, September 27th at 9PM ET/PT.

Here are a few links to video of the documentary and web extras:

787 Dreamliner

Inside the Dreamliner

Boeing CEO McNerney and the 787 Dreamliner

And a video of ANA doing a final inspection on ZA101:




Boeing's Official 787 First Delivery Web Site

Here's Boeing's statement on the contractual delivery of the first 787:

Boeing, ANA Complete Contractual Delivery of First 787 Dreamliner

EVERETT, Wash., Sept. 25, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and ANA have signed the formal documents completing the contractual delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner. Celebrations to mark this historic milestone begin tomorrow in Everett with a delivery ceremony followed by flyaway of the airplane on Tuesday. Today's signing comes after a series of flights, inspections and the transfer of funds.

"Now that the airplane is ready to deliver, the entire team is ready to celebrate," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We look forward to honoring our launch customer ANA before they fly their first Dreamliner home to Japan."

Celebrations for Boeing employees begin Monday at 6 a.m. (Pacific time) outside the 787 factory in Everett with the static display of ZA002, one of the flight test airplanes painted in ANA's livery. ANA and Boeing executives, employees, partners and government officials will gather at 9 a.m. for the delivery ceremony in the same location. Airplane 24, painted in ANA's special livery, will join the display during the ceremony. Flyaway of the airplane to Tokyo is scheduled Tuesday morning at 6:35 a.m. from Paine Field.

A live webcast of Monday's delivery events and Tuesday's flyaway can be seen at www.newairplane.com. Video highlights of those events also will be posted to the website.

"ANA has been a tremendous partner from day one," said Fancher. "Through the hard work and challenges, the Boeing team never lost focus on the commitments to our valued customer. We know ANA's customers will love this airplane."

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is an all-new airplane featuring a host of technologies
that provide exceptional value to airlines and unparalleled levels of comfort to passengers. It is the first mid-size airplane capable of flying long-range routes, enabling airlines to open new, non-stop routes preferred by the traveling public.

Composite materials, more-electric systems, advanced aerodynamics and modern engines combine to make the 787 more fuel efficient and provide lower operating costs. Passengers will appreciate the cleaner cabin air, higher humidity and lower cabin altitude that combine to help them feel more refreshed after flying on the 787. Other innovations include larger windows with electrochromic shades, bigger onboard luggage bins and LED lighting.

Testing is continuing on the Trent-100 package b upgrades which will actually be introduced on the next 787 to enter service, LN 24 (ZA103). This aircraft has flown with the package "A" Trent-1000 engines but will be delivered with the package "B" engines next month.

Meanwhile the aviation blogosphere was putting out a ton of reports surrounding the 787 because of this weeks first delivery and I've included a few links below:

Guy Norris:
787 Test Team Shuffle

787-9 Critical Design Review

More Frequent Interior Upgrades on the 787

Upgraded Trent 1000 Undergoing Noise Test on 787

ANA to get 12 787 by April 2012

Scott Hamilton:
Boeing Delivers First 787 to ANA

Soundbites from 787 Delivery

Flightblogger:
All Nippon's First 787 receives Certificate of Airworthiness

Project Gemini Documents look into 787 line selection

The world's First 787 delivered to All Nippon Airways

With second ANA 787, Trent 1000 package "B" takes flight

Dominic Gates:
Boeing celebrates 787 delivery as program costs top $32bn

Aubrey Cohen:
Boeing set to deliver first 787 Dreamliner

David Parker Brown:

Live Blog: Boeing 787 Dreamliner Pre-Delivery Events

747-8F dispute update

Well not too much to report though RC502, the first 747-8F that was to have been delivered to Cargolux did have a customer flight today. This is curious since Cargolux pulled their people out of Everett when the dispute erupted on Friday. They may be back and flying so it MAY be a sign that negotiations are progressing.

Cargolux 747-8F delivery being held hostage by Akbar Al-Baker and Qatar Airways

In a posting by Scott Hamilton this morning, Qatar Airways and it's chief executive Akbar Al-Baker, who have a 35% stake in Cargolux, are allegedly forcing Boeing back to negotiating compensation not just over 747-8F performance shortfalls but also for more compensation for Qatar Airways 787 delivery delays. The later issue was resolved earlier with Al-Baker proclaiming that he was satisfied with the results of the negotiations at the time.

Apparently he has has a change of heart with regards to the compensation thus keeping true to his U-Turn Al nickname in the industry. Now mind you that the customers of the 747-8F knew for over year of the shortfalls in performance of the 747-8F and have already or in the process of negotiating compensation because of the issues that were uncovered during flight testing. Additionally Boeing and engine maker GE are in process of developing performance improvement packages (PIP) for the aircraft's GEnx-2B engines that would be backfitted into the earlier models of the aircraft and would allow them to be flown to the initial contracted performance specs (or very close to those specs).

If Al-Baker is indeed using Cargolux's 747-8F as a ploy to get more compensation from Boeing, he is playing a very dangerous game. 1) He is putting his investment in Cargolux at risk as they do need these aircraft to remain competitive especially when Cargolux's competitors will take delivery. 2) Boeing can say enough is enough and play hardball. Airbus does not have an alternative to the 747-8F and that would anger Cargolux's other shareholders (Al-Baker only owns 35% of the company) as one company is being used to benefit another company.

How this plays out will provide interesting aviation theater which Al-Baker loves. In the meanwhile the 787 looks like will be delivered first and I also don't preclude the ability of Boeing to deliver the 747-8F to other customers who have a firm contract in place with compensation.

Scott Hamilton: Cargolux 747-8F dispute linked to late Qatar 787 deliveries

Flightblogger: Cargolux 747-8F delivery becomes "highly unlikely" this week

Delivery Delayed

Boeing Photo

Cargolux Airlines informed Boeing that they do not intend to take delivery of the first 747-8F on Monday, September 19th. The reason are unresolved contractual issues for the aircraft. While this may be a temporary bump to eventual delivery to the aircraft the concern is what effect wold this have on other 747-8F customers? They may hold out on delivery as well in return to renegotiate their contracts prior to the delivery of their airplanes. This may turn into a serious situation nd the 787 may end being delivered before the 747. Cargolux (and Boeing) has also been touting the impending delivery of the 748F on their web site so it could be some language in the paperwork that needs to be straighten out. So let's see how this contract issue plays out. Cargolux has paid up much upfront costs for these airplanes and they want them right way so they're not going to just walk away.

Never Forget

9/11 Never Forget

787 type certification today, first delivery in 31 days, EIS in 60 days

Boeing will receive the amended type certificate for the Rolls Royce powered 787-8 today which will set off a countdown to the type's first delivery and first revenue flight. There will be a ceremony at Everett marking the occasion with ZA001 to serve as a backdrop to the ceremony (it's currently at the Boeing Delivery Center in Everett) where Randy Babbit, the FAA Administrator will speak along with other guests and ZA002 is looking to do a fly past during the ceremony coming from Boeing Field. Both the FAA and EASA will hand over the certification documents to Boeing today as well as the amended production certificate (APC) from the FAA for the 787 production.

Boeing is continuing flight tests on the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. They should be starting F&R/ETOPS testing soon though date still has not been made public. 60% of Boeing's 787 order book will be equipped with the GEnx engine thus type certification of this engine/airframe combination is crucial.

Boeing and ANA have said that first delivery ceremony will occur on September 26th (31 days from now) but the contratual delivery will occur on September 25th (this is where all the paperwork is signed and ANA pays for it's airplane) with the aircraft being ferried to Haneda Int'l Airport on September 27th from Everett. 30 days after ANA formally accepts the first 787 the airline will run it's first revenue flight from Haneda to Hong Kong (a charter flight). Starting on November 1st the 787 will be put on regular scheduled service between Haneda and Okyama and Hiroshima.

ANA also plans to commence international 787 service from Haneda going to Beijing in December, 2011 and Frankfurt in January, 2012.

Here's Boeing's announcement on first delivery:

ANA, Boeing Set Date for First 787 Dreamliner Delivery

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and ANA will celebrate delivery of the first 787 Dreamliner on Sept. 26 in Everett, Wash., after contractual delivery occurs on Sept. 25. Events throughout the day on Sept. 26 will commemorate delivery of this game changing airplane to its launch customer.

"The airplane is ready. ANA is ready. And, Boeing is ready," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "This airplane begins a new chapter in aviation history."

ANA's airplane will arrive in Tokyo on Sept. 28, following a Sept. 27 departure from Everett, Wash., and will be greeted by ANA employees, media and Japanese partners. Details of events in Everett and Tokyo will be provided in the weeks ahead. Many of the events will be webcast live, allowing people around the world to participate in the celebration.

Shinichiro Ito, president and CEO of ANA Group, said, "As launch customer, we are delighted to be taking delivery of our first 787 Dreamliner. This aircraft will enable us to offer new standards of service and comfort to our passengers and will play an important role in our international expansion strategy as we seek to become Asia's number one airline."

ANA launched the 787 program with a record-setting order of 50 airplanes in April 2004. The airline has played a key role in guiding the design of the Dreamliner.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner is an all-new commercial jetliner that brings new efficiencies to airlines and delivers superior comfort to passengers. The airplane features the industry's largest windows, a lower cabin altitude and cleaner air. These features combine to allow passengers to arrive at their destinations more refreshed.

Here's Boeing's press release on receiving FAA and EASA type certification:

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Receives FAA, EASA Certification

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received certification for the all-new 787 Dreamliner from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) during a ceremony at the company's Everett, Wash., facility.

FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt presented the U.S. Type Certificate, which verifies that the 787 has been tested and found to be in compliance with all federal regulations, to 787 Chief Pilot Mike Carriker and 787 Vice President and Chief Project Engineer Mike Sinnett, both of whom have worked on the program since the day it began.

Babbitt presented the amended Production Certificate 700 to John Cornish, vice president of 787 Final Assembly & Delivery, and Barb O'Dell, vice president of Quality for the 787 program. The Production Certificate adds the 787 to the list of Boeing Commercial Airplane production systems that have been found to be compliant with all federal regulations.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Jim Albaugh said, "Certification is a milestone that validates what we have promised the world since we started talking about this airplane. This airplane embodies the hopes and dreams of everyone fortunate enough to work on it. Their dreams are now coming true."

Patrick Goudou, executive director of EASA, presented Dan Mooney, vice president of 787-8 Development, and Terry Beezhold, former leader of the 787 Airplane Level Integration Team, with the European Type Certificate for the 787.

Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program for Boeing, wrapped up the event addressing the broad team of those who worked on the program.

"This is truly a great airplane. From the advanced materials and innovative technologies to the improved passenger experience and unbeatable economics, the 787 really is a game-changing airplane," Fancher said.

Boeing receives type certification for 747-8F

Boeing Photo

Boeing announced today that it has received type certification and the company now has clear path to start delivering the freighter version of the newest member of the 747 family in early September to Cargolux.

Cargolux will receive the first 747-8F early next month. The next four months will see Boeing delivering 3 new airplanes to customers (787-8, 747-8F and 747-8I) which is unprecedented in commercial aviation history. The FAA has given Boeing the Amended Type Certificate as well as the Amended Production Certificate (which allows Boeing to produce the 747-8F using FAA validated methods). EASA has also granted the amended type certificate to the 747-8F.

Even though the FAA has certified the 747-8F this is not the end of certification activities for this particular airplane. The 747-8F was certified with the flight management software for the 747-400. Full certification with the improvements to the software would have delayed the entry into service of the aircraft thus Boeing elected to certify the airplane with the older version of the software and then certify the 747-8 flight management software later this year.

Here's a description of the 747-8 flight management software from Guy Norris of Aviation Week:

The debate over readiness centers on the standard of software in the Honeywell-supplied Next Generation Flight Management System (NGFMS) at the heart of the 747-8 avionics suite. The system enables Required Navigation Performance (RNP) 0.1, and enables operators to comply with both the U.S. NextGen Air Traffic Management (ATM) and the Single European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program. The system also supports Wide Area Augmentation System Localizer Performance with Vertical guidance, Future Air Navigation System 1 (FANS-1) and FANS-2 requirements.

The core of the new FMS also is flying on the Gulfstream G650 ultra-long range business jet, but incorporates an architecture that partitions the flight management code from the user interface. This has enabled 747-8-specific user interfaces, inputs and outputs to be connected to the advanced FMS via a number of “abstraction” layers. The NGFMS software also will run in the same basic FMS box as the current Boeing 747-400, which will be upgraded by inserting a single processor card.

There is no word on when flight testing will be complete on the 747-8 flight management software. Boeing is continuing flight testing on the 747-8I and thus far it has flown just under 500 flight test hours of the 600 flight test hours that is needed for certification. Boeing still plans to start deliveries of that aircraft by the end of the year.

Meanwhile Boeing is awaiting FAA certification of the Rolls Royce powered 787-8. It is being reported that the certification is expected in another week for the 787-8. Meanwhile ZA101, the first 787 to be delivered started its Trent-1000 engines for the first time yesterday and I anticipate B-1 flight (Boeing first flight) very soon after type certification fy the FAA. Boeing is also planning to start F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered version of the 787 sometime in September though the date is still unknown. Boeing's 787 backlog is heavily skewed in favor of GEnx powered aircraft thus it is highly important for Boeing to conduct those final tests in order to certify and deliver that version of the plane. The derivative the GEnx-1B that powered the 787, the GEnx-2B will be flying for customers first when the 747-8F enters revenue service.

Here's Boeing's Statemeent of the 747-8F type certificate:

New Boeing 747-8 Freighter Certified for Entry into Service

U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, European Aviation Safety Agency certify design of new member of 747 family

SEATTLE, Aug. 19, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification Friday for the new 747-8 Freighter, passing two of the final landmarks on the airplane's journey to entry into service. The FAA granted Boeing an Amended Type Certificate (ATC) and an Amended Production Certificate for the 747-8 Freighter, while the EASA also granted the company an ATC for the airplane.

With these certificates, the program is in the final stages of preparing to deliver the first 747-8 Freighter to launch customer Cargolux in early September.

"This is such a great day for everyone on the 747 team," said Jim Albaugh, president and CEO, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Over the last several years, this team has overcome challenge after challenge. Through their hard work and dedication, they have ensured that the 747, the Queen of the Skies, will fly for decades to come."

The drive to certify the 747-8 Freighter was a team effort, said Elizabeth Lund, vice president and general manager, 747 Program. "This is a day to express our profound thanks to everyone at Boeing and at our suppliers who played a part in designing, building and testing this airplane," she said. "It's a day to thank our colleagues at the
FAA and EASA for all of their hard work. And it's a day to appreciate our customers for their commitment to the program."

The Amended Type Certificate acknowledges that the FAA and EASA have certified that the design of the 747-8 Freighter is compliant with all aviation regulatory requirements and will produce a safe and reliable airplane. The airplane logged more than 3,400 hours of flight testing and many thousands more of ground, part, component, materials and other testing on the road to certification.

The Amended Production Certificate shows the FAA has validated that the Boeing 747
production system can reliably produce airplanes that will conform to the airplane's design. EASA accepts FAA oversight of Boeing production certificates as sufficient for its regulations, as FAA accepts EASA oversight of European manufacturers' production certificates.

The 747-8 Freighter is the new high-capacity 747 that will give cargo operators the lowest operating costs and best economics of any freighter airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance. It is 250 feet, 2 inches (76.3 m) long, which is 18 feet and 4 inches (5.6 m) longer than the 747-400 Freighter. The stretch provides customers with 16 percent more revenue cargo volume compared to its predecessor. That translates to four additional main-deck pallets and three additional lower-hold
pallets. The 747-8 Freighters will be powered with GE's GEnx-2B engines.

Boeing announces the completion of 787 type certification testing

ZA102 returning to Everett...Boeing Photo

Today Boeing announced that they have completed type certification for the 787-8.

The final F&R test flight was conducted on Saturday and they will now submit all remaining type certification paperwork to the FAA for their review and the issuance of type certification for the Trent powered 787.

Boeing says that testing will continue for type certification of the GEnx powered 787 as well as to complete Boeing test points (which are not needed for type certification or delivery). Issuance of the final type certification is now expected by the end of the month with deliveries to start next month.

What is still unclear is how many 787s will be delivered to customers this year as the number of 787s needing re-work continues to grow at Everett. The later assembled aircraft do need less rework then the ones produced in the last 2-3 years but the number of jobs still needing to be done is still significant.

Here's a Boeing video on the completion of type certification testing:

And here's Boeing's press release:

Boeing 787 Dreamliner Completes Flight Testing for Type Certification

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 17, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) completed all flight tests required for type certification of the 787-8 Dreamliner with Rolls-Royce engines this weekend. The all-new jetliner is bringing unprecedented levels of fuel economy, maintenance cost improvements, and environmental sensitivity to the marketplace through the use of new technologies including composites, more-electric systems, advanced aerodynamics and the latest advancements in propulsion.

"We are very pleased with the performance of the airplane during the Function & Reliability and Extended Operations testing over the last month," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "The Dreamliner continues to demonstrate that we will indeed deliver a truly revolutionary airplane that will be a game changer in the marketplace."

The final flight occurred Saturday onboard ZA102, the ninth 787 to be built. Capt. Mike Carriker, chief pilot for the 787 program, brought ZA102 back to its home base at Paine Field in Everett at 1:58 p.m. (Pacific time) following a 90 minute flight that originated in Billings, Mont. During the flight, the 14-person crew completed simulations of a dispatch with a failed generator and failed fuel flow indication.

"When ZA102 returned to Paine Field, it brought back with it the hopes and dreams of the many thousands of men and women of Boeing and our global partners who have worked so long for this day," Fancher said. "Their hard work and commitment to
this amazing airplane has been a true inspiration. We look forward to making our first delivery to our good friends at ANA in September."

Video highlights of 787 flight testing can be found at: http://youtu.be/9yRmwGMNuDo

Flight testing continues for 787s with GE engines and for Boeing test points not related to certification.

The Boeing 787 Dreamliner features a wide array of passenger amenities including
larger windows, cleaner air, higher humidity and a lower cabin altitude.

Boeing looking to complete certification test flights today

Boeing is expected to complete the system functionality and reliability testing today using ZA102. The aircraft will fly to Salt Lake City International Airport from Paine Field then on to Billings Logan international Airport in Montana and finally back to Paine Field. As of last night the aircraft has accumulated about 280 test flight hours and needs another 7 hours to finish the required FAA certification testing. Today's flights would last about 2hrs, 3hrs and 1.5 hrs respectively getting to the needed 287 hours that will fulfill the FAA mandates.

It is expected that Boeing will submit the final paperwork to the FAA around Monday and then to have the final type certification later in the week after the FAA Board meets to discuss the results. First delivery is expected around mid September for the Trent-1000 powered version of the aircraft to ANA followed by the GEnx-1B powered version sometime in the 4th quarter to JAL. Boeing actually has more orders for the GE powered version of the 787 then the Rolls Royce powered version so they would need to make final certification of this version a priority though it is still unknown when they will start F&R/ETOPs testing.

Trent powered 787 due to finish certification testing this weekend

Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO, Jim Albaugh speaking at the Jefferies conference said that the 787 just has 24 hour more flight testing left to be done to complete certification testing for the Trent-1000 powered version of the airplane. Boeing expects to receive type certification for the 787 sometime next week and plans to deliver the first 787, ZA101, to ANA next month.

The last bit of F&R testing (which is being undertaken by ZA102) will be completed by this weekend which will allow Boeing to submit the last bit of paperwork to the FAA. The FAA will have a review board meeting with Boeing to go over the the type certification of the 787 which is expected to result in the FAA granting type certification.

Yet to be done is the F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx powered version of the 787. There is still isn't any clarification as to when that will be started and when Boeing plans to deliver the first GEnx-1B powered 787 to Japan Airlines. Boeing is still talking to the FAA about that testing regime for the GEnx powered 787 and which aircraft(s) will be used to conduct that testing.

Albaugh also indicated that the long pole in the tent with increasing the 787 production rate is the North Charleston facilities that Boeing had bought (previously owned by Vought and Global Aeronautica). Those facilities are the "pinch point" according to Albaugh.

James Albaugh also said that Boeing is meeting this week with the FAA regarding the type certification of the 747-8F but still plans to deliver the first example to Cargolux next month. Type certification is expected in the next couple of weeks for this airplane.

787 Production Update

I've learned today the customers who will be receiving 787s designated from LN 64 to LN70.

They are as follows:

ZA463/LN64 to Qatar Airways
ZA182/LN65 to Japan Airlines
ZA135/LN66 to ANA
ZA118/LN67 to ANA
ZA536/LN68 to LAN
ZA119/LN69 to ANA
ZA240/LN70 to Air India

I don't have information, as of yet, where each will be built (Everett or Charleston) but I'm working to try and get that information. Boeing is planning to increase its 787 production rate to 2.5 airplanes a month by the end of this month.

Boeing unveils first service ready 787

Boeing Photos

Boeing unveiled the first service ready 787 to a group of waiting ANA executives and assembled media (unfortunately your truly wasn't amongst them). The crowd was able to board and view the 787 configured for regional medium range missions for ANA. ANA expects to conduct the first revenue flight between Tokyo and Hong Kong sometime in October after delivery sometime next month. This is another clear sign that Boeing is ready to switch the program from a development program to production though the production system is still sorely needing a dramatic turn around. ZA101 now is now registered as JA801A and will soon undertake standard Boeing and customer test flights. ZA102 or ZA100 is expected to be the 2nd 787 delivered to ANA.

ZA102 is still conducting functionality and reliability testing around Everett and has about 60 more flight hours to complete. After this testing is done Boeing will submit all the remaining paperwork to the FAA and after about 30 days Boeing should have the final type certification for the Rolls Royce powered 787. Meanwhile flight testing is still continuing on the GEnx powered 787 with both ZA005 and ZA006 flying test missions. There is still no word on when Boeing will start GEnx F&R/ETOPs testing or which aircraft(s) will be used in that testing. Unsurprisingly the Trent powered 787s are not flying much as that part of the test program is completed though Boeing will probably have them on stand by in case the FAA wants them to run any further tests after the submission of paperwork.

Lastly, Boeing has restarted the 787 line with new deliveries for airplane 44 arriving into Everett. That aircraft is now in position 1 in building 40-26. According to Flightblogger, Boeing is expected to increase the rate to 2.5 by the end of August.

Here's Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing, ANA Roll Out the First 787 Dreamliner that Will Enter into Service

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 6, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The first Boeing (NYSE: BA) 787 Dreamliner that will enter into service with launch customer ANA rolled out of the paint hangar today. The airplane bears a special livery signifying the core element's of ANA's service brand – innovation, uniqueness and the inspiration of Japan.

"Our teams are making outstanding progress in completing the first airplane to be delivered and achieving certification of the 787," said Scott Fancher, vice presidentand general manager of the 787 program. "We are inspired by the airline's enthusiasm for this airplane and look forward to the day when we make our first delivery to ANA."

ANA's first 787 features a short-haul international interior design with business- and economy-class cabins.

"ANA's passengers will be the first to experience the 787 Dreamliner's comfortable interior environment," said Mitsuo Morimoto, ANA senior executive vice president and member of the board of directors. "Combined with ANA's superior levels of service, passengers will enjoy a spacious interior, larger windows, comfortable seats and touch-panel in-flight entertainment screens."

Some of the most innovative technologies aboard the 787 aren't visible, but will help passengers have a more pleasant and comfortable flight. Passengers will arrive at their destinations feeling more refreshed with the airplane's cleaner cabin air, lower cabin altitude and higher humidity.

Boeing plans to deliver the first 787 to ANA in September. ANA will operate its first 787 revenue flight as a charter international flight from Tokyo to Hong Kong.

747-8F completes certification testing

Boeing announced that it has completed the certification testing for the 747-8F.

This now means that the company will submit the remainig paperwork to the FAA which will issue the type certification for the airplane ususally in about 30 days. I suspect that Boeing will be able to deliver hte first 747-8F around mid September time frame to Cargolux.

Here's Boeing's Press Release:

New Boeing 747-8 Freighter Completes Certification Flight Testing

EVERETT, Wash., Aug. 3, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- The new Boeing (NYSE: BA) 747-8 Freighter successfully completed its certification flight test program Tuesday, with two airplanes landing at Paine Field in Everett, Wash. Flight test airplane RC522 completed testing of the flight management computer (FMC) and RC523 completed function & reliability (F&R) testing.

"This is such a great day for the new 747-8 and for all the employees who played a part in designing, building and testing this incredible, game-changing airplane," said Elizabeth Lund, Boeing vice president and general manager, 747 program. "We are in the home stretch in delivering this airplane to our customers."

The first 747-8 Freighter is scheduled to be delivered to launch customer Cargolux in September after certification from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

The 747-8 Freighter has flown more than 1,200 flights and 3,400 hours since its first flight Feb. 8, 2010. During that time, the five-airplane test fleet was used to gather data for more than 1,700 FAA certification requirements. Boeing tested the capabilities of these airplanes far beyond what they are expected to encounter in normal service. Tests concluded with F&R testing, a final phase in which an airplane must accrue 300 FAA-approved flight hours in its final delivery configuration.

"My team and I had the pleasure of spending hundreds of hours in these airplanes," said 747 Chief Pilot Mark Feuerstein. "We can truly say this airplane is a joy to fly, and our customers are going to love it. It flies like a 747, but one from the 21st century."

The 747-8 Freighter is the new high-capacity 747 that will give cargo operators the lowest operating costs and best economics of any freighter airplane while providing enhanced environmental performance. It is 18 feet and 4 inches (5.6 m) longer than the 747-400 Freighter. The stretch provides customers with 16 percent more revenue cargo volume compared to its predecessor. That translates to four additional main-deck pallets and three additional lower-hold pallets. The 747-8 Freighters will be powered with GE's GEnx-2B engines.

Progress

One down one to go. Boeing has completed the ETOPs portion of F&R/ETOPs testing phase leaving only about 80 hours of F&R testing and the submittal of the final documents to the FAA as the final hurdle to type certification of the 787. Of course the GEnx powered 787 will have to replicate the testing that ZA102 has accomplished so far and Boeing will have to do the 330 minute ETOPs testing early next year after they implement a software change. The current ETOPS certification is for 180 minute ETOPs.

Another sign of progress...Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be delivered to a customer (ZA101) this Saturday fully painted and furnished with the interior that ANA has chosen. This is another important milestone that Boeing has been trying to reach for well over 3 years. Type certification should come around mid September with first delivery to follow soon thereafter.