Monday, October 22, 2012

6 787s fly for the first time in 5 days

From Oct. 18 to Oct. 22 inclusive, Boeing took advantage of a break in the weather to fly 6 different production 787s on their B-1 flights.  The aircraft were obviously ready but bad weather forced a hold on all B-1 flights. Thus when the break came Boeing released the planes for flight.  However because of the delay, I expect that none of these airplanes will be able to be delivered by the end of the month.  It does potentially set up November as a big month for deliveries but there may be a knock on efffect as 787s that were scheduled for flights around this time will be pushed back to later this month and certainly into early November.

10/18/2012
ZA270 (LN 61, SP-LRA) - LOT Polish Airlines

10/20/2012
ZA430 (LN 73, B-2728) - Hainan Airlines
ZA290 (LN 77, N26906) - United Airlines

10/21/2012
ZA239 (LN 60, VT-ANK) - Air India

10/22/2012
ZA261 (LN 44, ET-AOP) - Ethiopian Airways
ZA460 (LN 57, A7-BCA) - Qatar Airways

In addition to the increase B-1 flights, there was a very noticable increase in follow on flights of other airframes that have already flown.  There included a C-1 flight for ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) which is expected to be delivered to Air India before the end of the month, hopefully). 

Given the increased activity, however, I do not expect a lot of deliveries in the next 8 days.  There are really 3 airplanes that are ready for delivery or will be ready for delivery.  There is a possibility of one more airplane that could be delivered this month but it only has an outside chance.

Ready or almost ready for delivery:

ZA537 (LN 74, CC-BBB) - LAN
ZA264 (LN 75, ET-AOS) - Ethiopian
ZA238 (LN 54, VT-ANJ) - Air India (only had one C-1 flight may need more)

The one airframe that might make it for delivery by the end of this month is:

ZA511 (LN 63, JA816A) - ANA

The last aircraft still needs to perform customer flights and I am not sure if it has completed all the Boeing test flights at this point even though it has flown twice.

It is apparent that if Boeing can maintain an aggressive flying schedule in November, they can have a lot delivieries in that month.  Much depends on the aircraft condition after completing final assembly/change incorporation as well as weather and the ability to work through the backlog of planes that are finished and need to go through testing.








19 comments:

greg said...

Official name: "Ethiopian Airlines," not "Airways."

TurtleLuv said...

Ethiopian ET-AOS is delivering tonight.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/ETH9201

Andrew Boydston said...

Once again, I believe Boeing is in Big Picture Mode (BPM) and looks more at December 31, 2012 more than a month ending tally. November will exceed any other month for B1 and C1 flights. How goes November, tells how goes the total for 2012. What flies in November and week 1 of December, will move on by end of December. Uresh, what do you suspect for the year end totals on the 787 deliveries.

Uresh said...

They'll deliver between 45 and 50.

TurtleLuv said...

line 65 ff scheduled today http://flightaware.com/live/flight/BOE240

Uresh said...

Yup but it didn't fly, probably jus tdid taxi tests. Let see if it happens tomorrow.

Randy Austin said...

Based on the flight profile for ANA ZA511 on Monday the 22nd,looks like the C-1 was completed and with no flights the last three days,I'm guessing it's almost ready for delivery.

Uresh said...

ZA511 has only had 2 test flights. It's not ready for delivery.

Randy Austin said...

If you say so,but. On the 12th it flew the B-1 from KPAE to KMWH and back, about 2 1/2 hours--10 days later it flew a similiar profile which due to the characteristic ANA 360 degree turn over Newport,I believe was the C-1. If there are any other flights before the flight home they'll just be cleaning up issues from the customer flight. Two flights are all that's required on many of the 777's and 767's before they deliver if you check flightaware--why not two flights on a 787 then delivery???? Let's see what happens.

Uresh said...

Boeing has not delivered a 787 after fewer than three test flights and that 's a fact, you can check Flightaware on that. All 787s had at least 2 Boeing test flights and at least 1 customer test flight nd most of the deliveries had way more than three test flights. This is not the 777 or 737 program so I don't see how you can compare the those programs with the 787.

Fedupjohn said...

Uresh,

As I am new to following test flights, was yesterday's flight profile for LN64 - ZA463, a customer acceptance profile, and if it was, is it a typical profile?

Uresh said...

Maybe.

Fedupjohn said...

Uresh,

Thanks of you answer, btw,
Does Boeing announce when a plane is "Ready for Delivery"?

Uresh said...

No they don't.

Tom N SAN said...

Hi Uresh, Thanks for the 787 information. I really enjoy mulling over the data! Do you have any new information regarding the Chinese carriers and if they will be allowed to take delivery once the frames are ready? If I counted correctly, 10 of the first 96 birds are for Chinese carriers. Thanks.

Uresh said...

I don't have any further information with regards to the Chinese frames.

Tom N SAN said...

Thanks! I asked the question, and then Hainan LN73 takes a test flight! Maybe there's hope they'll deliver soon.

Kevin Flanagan said...

United #2 delayed:

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/For-some-in-Houston-dreams-of-flying-Dreamliner-3987191.php

And good for United on refunding tickets for those that wanted to ride!

HK Expat said...

Hi Uresh - always a pleasure to read your stuff!

By my calcs, QAT/82 should move out momentarily with ANA/83 moving to P4 in the 40-26 and JAL/84 to P3 in the 40-24 to make room for JAL/89 on the surge line later next week.

This leads to the question of what's going to happen to JAL/21 which is meant to be in P3 of the surge line. The line is basically full so no more room for it.

Cheers
A