Thursday, July 25, 2013

FAA issues AD for 787 ELTs plus 787 deliveries for July

Today the FAA is ordering carriers to either inspect or remove the ELTs on their 787 aircraft.  This is coming on news that AAIB investigators are narrowing the fire in the ELT to improper installation of the ELT and the associated lithium-manganese batteries which allowed the wires in the ELT to be pinched thus leading to a possible arcing event and igniting the fire.  Essentially, the 787 and its electrical system has been exonerated in this event and the issue maybe that of workmanship instead of design.

In related news,, Jim McNearny, speaking on the 2nd Quarter earning call said that Boeing is in discussions with Ethiopian on plans to repair the 787.  There was some question as to whether the aircraft would be repairable or would have to be written off.  This is the first indication that I know of that Boeing believes the damage to ZA261 is repairable.  Hopefully within a couple of weeks will know what Boeing's repair approach will be and how they will ensure that the repairs won't compromise the structural integrity of the aircraft.

As the July is coming to an end Boeing is making a push to deliver several 787s.  Thus far they have delivered 4 in July and should be able to deliver 4 more:

Ethiopian - 1
LOT - 1
Qatar -1
United Airlines - 1

For August, Boeing should be able to deliver at least 11 though I'm not including any deliveries to Air India, Hainan Airlines or China Southern.  Between these three airlines, there are 14 787s that are essentially ready to be delivered.  Assuming Boeing delivers 4 more 787s by the end of July, they will have 28 aircraft that are in pre-flight or in production test flights (excluding the 787-9 that is in the paint hangar). This means that Boeing can possibly deliver 14 787s from this current batch (not including the aforementioned carriers) however, some of these are scheduled for a September delivery.  I do think Boeing will be able to deliver 11 787s (barring any unknown issues):

ANA - 3
British Airways - 1
JAL -1
ILFC/Aeromexico - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
LAN - 2
Qatar -1
TUI - 1

Again I'm not counting any deliveries from Air India, China Southern or Hainan as these carriers have been notoriously unreliable when it comes time for them to pick up their aircraft especially after they raised hell for the delays.

If, by some miracle, these airlines are able to take delivery, then we can see much higher total deliveries of around 15 to 16 for August.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery



greg said...

Your description about the ELT issue is slightly off.

The pinched wire is inside the ELT itself, and thought to be pinched when the battery was replaced at Honeywell's factory before shipped to Boeing. The ELT had probably been manufactured much earlier, and had sat on the shelf for a long time because of Boeing's delay in putting the plane together.

This explains why such a "freak accident" has not happened on a different type of plane.

And after all, it's essentially a human error.

As we just learned, the 737 nose gear incident at La Guardia a couple of days ago is likely due to human/pilot error, too. So was the cause for the Asiana crash at SFO.

1coolguy1 said...

I agree completely with your comment on AI, China Southern and Hainan - very strange they're not picking up their planes after all their carping.

Do you think they are waiting on a definitive ruling about the Ethiopian fire?

greg said...

Didn't quite finish my previous comment before submission.

What I want to add is this: It was not an issue in "installation" on Boeing part, as the pinched wire is inside the ELT. So the human error likely occurred at Honeywell, not Boeing.

Darrell Sawyer said...

ANA announced 7/26/13 that they found pinched wires on two ELTs and shipped them to Honeywell for analysis.

Uresh said...

Nope, whatever issues the Chinese have likely occurred well before Ethiopian. They could have taken additional deliveries a long time ago.

Adil Shah said...

air india was waiting for money to pick the aircrafts. they got a loan for 5 aircrafts this week. deliveries should happen next week itself.

Uresh said...

The issue with the oven on the Air India 787 was food left in the oven too long and it started to burn. Dumb asses!

greg said...

"The issue with the oven on the Air India 787 was food left in the oven too long and it started to burn. Dumb asses!"

Another human error.

TravelingMan said...

This is odd. Seems to contain conflicting reports as to whether or not smoke occurred on a Qatar 787.

Jozef said...

Paul Grimes (‏@PaulGrimes8) tweets that: ``The ferry is now recheduled to 8/1. #6852 PAE 1200, DEN 1525''
It was retweeted on @UnitedFleetWebs

Uresh said...

Yup saw that. It was probably formally delivered today.