Thursday, December 22, 2016

Boeing completes 2016 with 137 787 deliveries

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett143
To be assembled in Charleston104
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly9
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work3
Pre-Flight Prep6
Production Testing7
Non Customer Flight Tests1
Ready for Delivery2

Now that the last 787 to be delivered in 2016 is in the bag, no would be an appropriate time to do a 2016 year in review for the 787 production and delivery.

So the typical round up for December.  Boeing delivered 11 787s, 4 787-8s and 7 787-9s. For the year Boeing Boeing delivered 137 787s with 35 787-8 and 102 787-9s going into customer hands.  Boeing has also achieved 500 deliveries exactly since program deliveries commenced in September 2011.  The notable deliveries in December included Royal Air Maroc's 5th and final 787-8 on order as well a Xiamen Airlines first 787-9 from an order of 6 aircraft.

At the end of 2015 I made some predictions about the the number of deliveries that Boeing would make as well as the mix of deliveries and the build location.  Let's review those predictions and see how it stacks up against what actually occurred in 2016.

Here are the predictions:


Now here are the same tables with the actual delivery totals for the same categories:

So while my total delivery prediction was off by 3 (140 vs. 137).  The number of deliveries and the mix of deliveries from Charleston was spot on while the number of Everett 787-8 deliveries was different due to a few deliveries that are being pushed to 2017.

Part of the delivery story was the sale of 5 early build 787-8 to customers (2 to Air Austral and 3 to Ethiopian Airlines).  This will certainly help Boeing bring down those deferred production costs and get rid of the aging inventory that was sitting around Everett for the better part of a decade. Lastly, Boeing delivered more 787-9s (102) vs. 787-8 (35) per plan and that will certainly help with the profit picture for the program when Boeing releases its 2016 financial results next month.

On the production side, Boeing has rolled out 132 787s this past year while starting final assembly on 128 aircraft.  These airframes were split as follows:  Charleston rolled out 60 787s while starting assembly on 57 aircraft including the first 787-10.  Everett rolled out 73 787s while starting final assembly on 71.

My efficiency ratio, which is calculated by dividing the number of rolled out airplanes by the number of delivered airplanes showed that Boeing had a pretty good year efficiency wise.  There are fewer 787s on the flightline then were delivered which means that Boeing is getting very good at build quality, testing and delivering the 787.  The overall 787 program efficiency ratio for 2016 is 0.97.  The ratio for Everett is an excellent 0.96 while the ratio for Charleston is also very good at 0.98.

Lastly, and this is really a 2017 item, ZC001 is projected to roll out of building 88-30 around Feb. 23, 2017.  This means that the first 787-10 would have spent 72 days in final assembly and testing.  This compares with ZB001, the first 787-9 which spent 86 days in final assembly and testing in 40-26.  given that the -10 is 90% common with the 787-9, it's not a surprise that it is taking 2 fewer weeks to assemble and test the first -10.  So what does that mean for first flight?  ZB001 conducted it's first flight 24 days after rolling out.  Again 787-9/787-10 commonality should work in favor of a shorter pre-flight period.  To that end I think Boeing can conduct the first 787-10 flight around 21 days after rollout including painting during this pre-flight period.  That would make first flight around the middle of March 2017.

I'll have a 787 program 2017 look ahead out before the end of the year.  Until then every have a Happy Holiday!

787 Full Production Table


Andrew Boydston said...

Thank you for the effort. I will also release data from various sources that defines both delivery units and list price information when comparing Boeing with Airbus when the month of December 2016 is posted. Would you like a look at that data when it becomes available? If not it will be posted on Winging It in the first week of January.

NCPx said...

Andrew, what is the URL for your blog?

Traveling Man said...

Why is Delta dumping Dreamliners for Airbus widebodies?

Business is business I suppose. But more often than not, I'll choose the airline that buys American planes and supports American jobs.

Andrew Boydston said...

To: NCPx
From: Andrew Boydston

Blog address:

Jet.Fuel.773-er said...

This is off topic but is there any news on the SQ RFP in the 777-10 and a larger version of the A35K?