Happy Thanksgiving!!

I want to wish all my followers a very Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you all for your support, kind words, and information!

Boeing increases 787 flight tempo to make a push for November month end deliveries

This past weekend, Boeing flew a number of 787s in a push to deliver them by the end of the month which will be shortened by the Thanksgiving Holiday.  Boeing had to fly a number of B flights as well as functional check flights (FCF) on several aircraft before proceeding with customer test flights. The increased temp in the last three days indicated that Boeing wants to deliver these airplanes relatively soon. Several flights were performed on aircraft destined for Hainan (2), Jetairfly (TUI), Air India, and Norwegian Air Shuttle.  On Friday, Boeing performed test flights on two 787s for China Southern.  I don't think these two are ready for delivery and may require more test flights this week.  Boeing can still deliver 787s for the first 3 days of this week and on Friday after Thanksgiving  Here's the ones that I think should deliver this week:

Norwegian (ZA650, LN 136, EI-LNC)
Japan Airlines (ZA187, LN 125, JA833J)
TUI (Jetairfly) (ZA327, LN 137, OO-JDL)
Hainan Airlines - 2 - (ZA432, LN 79, B-2729) and (ZA435, LN 131, B-2731)
China Southern Airlines - 2 - (ZA381, LN 36, B-2726) and (ZA386, LN 104, B-2737)

All of these airplanes have flown a comparable number of test flights compared to those previously delivered to the same airline.  If these airplanes are not delivered this week then more than likely the delivery will be made next week.  If Boeing can deliver even 5 of these airplanes this week, it will be a very good month for them delivery wise.

Since Boeing has increased the production rate to 10/month, they're under increasing pressure to move airplanes off the flightlines and into customer hands lest the production 787s start to crowd the Everett and Charleston tarmac again.

For next month I don't see it being much of a stretch for Boeing to deliver 10 to 11 787s in a push to pad the year end numbers.  During the next 36 days (between now and year end) I can see Boeing pushing out 2 more 787s from Charleston and 6 more from Everett (including one that will pull out by the end of November). Most of these will be delivered in January.  At Everett, ZA188 (LN 152) will be the last aircraft to go to the flightline this year to prepare for delivery.  At Charleston ZA294 (LN 145, N26910) will be the last one to be pulled out of 88-30.  Of course, Boeing may surprise us and also pull out ZA564 (LN 155) and ZA447 (LN 156) for a total of 10 787s in December.

My final number for 787 deliveries for 2013 is 66 plus or minus 2.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Boeing Charleston workers being unfairly criticized for slow deliveries

Boeing has reached its 2013 goal of assembling the 787s at a rate of 10 per month which is split between Everett and Charleston 8 to 2.  Guidance given by Boeing last year indicated that when they have reached this rate that the production would be split 7 to 3.  It was a surprise to everyone when it was revealed by Charleston based Boeing executives a few months ago that Charleston rate is at 1.5 and that they wouldn’t reach the 3 per month rate until sometime in the first quarter of 2014. 

People started to question why that was and many observers claimed that it was because the skill set and experience of manufacturing technicians (MT) at Charleston were not at the level of those at Everett.  Certainly the new MTs at Charleston had a learning curve to climb but can they be blamed for the lower rate of output at Boeing Charleston?

All things being equal the MTs have the same basic skill set as those at Everett. Where everything is not equal is the amount of experience the Charleston MTs have vs. those in Everett.  Certainly with time the Charleston MTs will be just as skillful at putting together the 787s as those in Everett.

For one thing Charleston only works two shifts on one assembly line while Everett work three full shifts on two lines.  Additionally Boeing is limiting the amount of overtime that the Charleston MTs work while there isn’t any known restrictions to the Everett workforce.

They also have very demanding customers who are observing every facet of assembly of their aircraft like Qatar Airways.  To top it all off, there are about 3 to 5 QT’s (Quality Technicians) to sign off on the work that was done per the FAA’s PC-700 production certificate.  MT’s have to wait sometimes up to 2 hours for a QT to inspect and sign off on the work that was performed.  Sometimes the Charleston workers have to hunt, scrounge for or have one of the shop workers fashion the appropriate tool in order to get a particular job completed to spec and to customer satisfaction.

In time, the Charleston line will be producing and delivering the three aircraft per month that is expected and I don’t doubt that when Boeing goes to 14 per month, the additional 4 airplanes will be coming from Charleston. However I feel that people are unjustly criticizing the SC plant and in particular, are being unfair to the techs that are building the 787s.

Boeing flies third and final 787-9 test aircraft as they move to quicken the pace of production test flights.

BOE 789 (ZB021) taking off from Paine Airport with T-33 chase plane in tow

 

Boeing 3rd and final 787-9 flight test aircraft powered by GE's GEnx-1B engines took off on its first flight this afternoon after a few hours delay.  Boeing does plan on using 2 production standard 787-9 for testing and other certification activities including functionality and reliability testing.  The first aircraft, ZB197 (LN 147) is still in final assembly but should emerge by the end of this month.  The other aircraft maybe ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) which would be the first 787-9 to deliver to launch customer Air New Zealand.

 

Boeing Photo

Here's Boeing's Press Release on ZB021's first flight: 

Boeing Flies Third 787-9 Dreamliner

- First GEnx-powered 787-9 flight

- Final dedicated flight-test airplane flies some two months from inaugural 787-9 flight

EVERETT, Wash., Nov. 19, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Today Boeing (NYSE: BA) flew the third 787-9 Dreamliner, the first to be powered by General Electric GEnx engines. The third of three 787-9s dedicated to the test effort, ZB021 joined the fleet some two months from the inaugural flight of the first 787-9.
ZB021 took off from Paine Field in Everett, Wash., at 12:15 p.m. local time and landed 2 hours and 44 minutes later at Seattle's Boeing Field. Boeing will use ZB021 to test engine performance as well as airplane handling characteristics such as low-speed performance and braking.
The 787-9 test program continues to make great progress. The fleet flies regularly, with the second airplane now in Florida for climatic testing, and has accumulated more than 180 flight hours and more than 60 flights. In addition to the three dedicated airplanes, Boeing also will conduct some testing on two production airplanes, the first of which is in final assembly in Everett. 787-10 development also is on plan.
Boeing is on track to deliver the 787-9 to launch customer Air New Zealand in mid-2014. 26 customers have ordered 396 787-9s, accounting for approximately 40 percent of all 787 orders.

In the meantime, Boeing, it seems in aggressively picking up the production testing pace now that they have increased 787 production to 10/month.  Starting now they will have to deliver 787s at a quicker pace.  Already we've seen Boeing fly 787s on their B-1 flights less than one month after they have been rolled out of the factory.  I believe we'll see that time span get shorter. Of the 16 airplanes that have completed assembly and that are out on the flightline, 5 have yet to fly and 2 of those are in the paint hangar in Everett.  I believe Boeing can deliver 4 to 6 more 787s by the end of this month.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Boeing makes a huge widebody splash at Dubai 2013; 777X launched, 787-10 gets more orders

Boeing Rendering of the 777-8X and 777-9X

 

Boeing made good on expectations of a huge splash of orders at Dubai 2013 today by booking 259 orders and commitments for the 777X part 2 of Boeing's two prong strategy against Airbus' A350.

The 777X is meant to directly challenge the A350-1000 (Boeing says the 777-8X is a direct challenger to the A350-1000) and any potential stretch of this aircraft to over 400 seats.  Emirates came in big with an order for 115 777-9X and 35 777-8X, the later is really an extended range version of the 777-300ER.  Etihad ordered 17 777-9X and 8 777-8X while Qatar signed an LoI for 50 777-9X.  What is unknown at this time is weather the Etihad and Emirates orders are firm or not.

Additionally Etihad ordered the 787-10 taking orders for the type to 120 and total orders for the 787 family to 1,012.  It does seem that this order may be firm.  Along with the 41 787-9s on order, Etihad is on track to be the largest airline customer of the 787.  ILFC is the largest 787 customer with 74 airplanes on order with 5 already delivered.

Boeing wasn't done as FlyDubai also went big and ordered 100 737-8 MAX and 11 737-800.  Overall a huge day for Boeing and I suspect that it's not over for them.  I expect that Boeing will more orders to announce from non Gulf carriers and may include Cathay Pacific as another customer for the 777X.

Airbus tried to make a splash but really came up with another yawn order of 50 A380 for Emirates.  The A380 has a large exposure to just one carrier and truly doesn't bode well for the aircraft as it has unable to penetrate other airlines and diversify its customer base.  The re-sale market for this aircraft is extremely limited.

After Day 1 at Dubai 2013 here's the scoreboard:

Airbus

Emirates - 50 x A380 (yawn)
Etihad - 40 x A350-900, 10 x A350-1000, 10 x A320 NEO, 26 x A321 NEO + 30 options on A350 and A320/A321 NEO
Qatar - 5 x A330-200F (8 options)


Boeing

Emirates - 35 x 777-8X, 115 x 777-9X + 50 options
Etihad - 8 x 777-8X, 17 x 777-9X, 30 x 787-10, 1 x 777F + 12 x 777X options/purchase rights, 12 x 787-10 options/purchase rights, 2 x 777F options/purchase rights
FlyDubai - 11 x 737-800, 100 x 737-8 MAX
Lufthansa - 34 x 777-9X
Qatar - 50 x 777-9X (LoI)

Breaking: Boeing announces start of 10/month 787 production rate

Boeing announced through Randy Tinseth's Boeing Blogs that they have loaded the first aircraft to be produced at 10/month.  This aircraft is ZA188 (LN 152) destined for Japan Airlines was loaded yesterday in 40-24 (surge line).  I suspect that this aircraft will be delivered in January.  Boeing had promised for a couple of years that the 787 production rate will hit 10/month by late 2013 and have achieved it a month and half early.

Boeing has been steadily increasing the production rate on the 787 through October and November.  In Everett the rate is about 8/month while Boeing is building the 787s in Charleston at 2/month.  Boeing should be loading a 787 in Everett every 4 days split between the main line in 40-26 and the surge line in 40-24.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Another correction, JAL took delivery of the 100th Dreamliner (seriously this time)

There has been plenty of confusion as to who received the 100th Dreamliner but thanks to Greg, an eagle eyed reader of this blog we might be able to finally declare who the winner is:

Japan Airlines received the 100th 787.  It was ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)

this aircraft was seen by Matt Cawby at the Everett Delivery Center on Nov. 5th and a Flightwaware alert popped up showing that this aircraft was to leave that evening for Tokyo.  The aircraft never left and was ultimately towed back to the flightline at Everett.

Since then Hainan Airlines took delivery of a 787, ZA434 (LN 85, B-2730) at Charleston and flew it to China so that left many assuming that this aircraft was number 100.

Then Greg found a posting on Boeing's New Airplane Flight tracker web site.  Boeing has delivered 101 787 as of November 8, 2013.  This can only mean that ZA175 was delivered as not other 787 except for ZA434 has been seen at the Everett Delivery Center or the Charleston Delivery Center.  Since ZA175 was at the EDC on Sept. 5 and ZA434 showed up at the CDC on Nov. 8th it should follow that ZA175 was delivered before ZA434.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Second 787-9 takes flight, Boeing delivers 100th 787 (for real this time)

 

Boeing Photos

Ok so I have to backtrack a little bit.  Last week ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J)for Japan Airlines appeared at the Everett Delivery Center and later in the day Flightaware.com showed a delivery flight planned for that aircraft to Tokyo.  This was, I assumed, the 100^th delivery of a 787 to a customer and I reported it as such. However, the flight plan timed out and a couple of days later the aircraft was towed back to a flightline stall.  Now the aircraft may have been contractually delivered but I am not sure.  Right now it seems that ZA434 for Hainan Airlines (LN 85, B-2730) looks to be the 100^th delivered 787.

Given the high level of interest in the 787 I would have expected that Boeing would have made some comment about the delivery but as of yet there hasn’t been any communication about it even after I’ve made an inquiry about it.  Boeing is being very quiet about this which seems to suggest that there might be some sort of behind the scenes issue with who is the actual recipient of 787 #100 or Boeing is waiting to make a very big splash about it at some later date.

As far as production goes, Boeing is still making very good progress in ramping up the rate in the factory.  November has been slow in terms of production testing after last month’s flurry of flight test activity.  There are still 4 aircraft including the aforementioned ZA175 waiting to be delivered.  Boeing has delivered 2 aircraft through the first 10 days of this month though I still see Boeing able to deliver at least 6 more aircraft this month.  They will have to start moving planes out of the flightline and into customer hands if they’re to increase the rate and avoid have a glut of 787s crowding the Everett and Charleston ramps.  This week will probably be critical in terms of determining the progress in delivering these Dreamliners.  Boeing will need to get a few (about 4) more aircraft up doing their B-1 as well as have the 6 airplanes that have already started production testing flying their customer flights.

Last week ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT), the second 78-9 test aircraft, flew for the first time in a 4 hour and 18 minute test flight.  The following day, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) resumed test flights after spending a week at Everett.  No reason was given for the 1 week layover but I suspect it was to fine tune the aircraft and possibly change out some flight test equipment.  ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB) had its GEnx engines run for the first time and I suspect will join the test flight program sometime around mid-December.  In the meantime, Boeing is continuing production work on the first 787-9.  ZB197 (LN 146) is destined for ANA and will be used for some of the final testing activities that the FAA mandated to be done on a production standard aircraft. I expect that this aircraft should roll out by late November but I don’t expect that it will be needed for any test flights until February at the earliest.  I still expect that the first 787-9 should deliver to Air New Zealand around April, 2014.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

 

Boeing delivers 100th 787 to Japan Airlines

While I have no official confirmation nor any word from Boeing, it appears that the 100th 787 to be delivered went to Japan Airlines this afternoon.  There was a flightplan just filed on Flightaware.com.  The aircraft is ZA175 (LN 20, JA821J) which is one of the early buiild 787s that had to go throughthe long process of change incorporation.  So far I have not heard of any aircraft being delivered from Charleston as of yet.  ZA175 is currently at the Everett Delivery Center.

Boeing has delivered 51 787s in 2013, and 100 aircraft since the start of deliveries in September 2011.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Boeing delivers the 99th 787, number 100 right around the corner possibly going to United Airlines

Boeing delivered the ZA235 (LN 32, VT-ANG) yesterday to Air India marking the delivery of the 99^th 787 built.  The aircraft should be departing later today but all eyes are on who will get number 100.  I do believe that United will take its next 787 this week thus I do expect that they will take the 100^th 787 to be delivered.

As I mentioned UAL should take it this week but it may come as early as today.  We’ll keep a watch out for any announcement coming from Boeing.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

 

Boeing delivers 9 787s in October, up to 98 total deliveries

Boeing had delivered 9 787s in the month of October and all things considered that was a very good month.  The production test flights in Everett was slowed down by a thick fog that hung around Everett for days and reduced visibility to much less than half a mile.  Certainly not good conditions to fly.  The delays caused by the weather had probably pushed back a few delivery dates to early November for a few Everett built 787s but also a factor was customer readiness to take these airplanes.

Of the notable airlines whose 787s are ready to be delivered to them are China Southern (2 aircraft), Hainan, and Air India. I do think that these aircraft along with one each for JAL and united will be delivered during the first week of November.  There seems to have been a knock on effect of airplanes delivering a little bit later than planned. A number of 78s that were expected to be delivered by late September were delivered in early October.  I expect there to be a similar occurrence this month with the 6 aircraft that have yet to be delivered.

Now that we are closing in on the end of the year, question turns to how many 787 will Boeing eventually deliver to its customers.  As of the end of October Boeing has delivered 49 787s.  This is 3 more than the number they delivered in 2012 and their target still remains above 60.  They can reach that target by the end of November.

Here's how I think November and December will shake out in terms of 787 deliveries:

Air India - 2
ANA - 1
China Southern - 3
Hainan - 3
ILFC/Sky Blue Holdings - 1
ILFC/UAE Presidential Flight - 1
Japan Airlines - 2
Norwegian - 1
QANTAS/Jetstar - 2
Qatar Airways - 1
TUI Travel - 1
United Airlines - 1

This is a total of 19 aircraft that Boeing certainly can deliver within the next two months.  This would bring the total 787s deliveries in 2013 to 68 and 117 overall.  Boeing needs to start clearing out 787s both at Everett and North Charleston as the company prepares to increase the 787 production rate to 10/month in December.

At the same time Boeing also plans on getting the two remaining 787-9s into the flight test program.  Boeing just rolled out the 3rd and final dedicated test flight aircraft, ZB021 (LN 139, N789ZB). I expect that this aircraft should fly by late November - early December.  We're still waiting for ZB002 (LN 133, N789FT) to fly and I suspect that this will occur sometime within the next one week.  ZB001 flew back to Everett a few days ago.  The reason is unknown but I am guessing that it can be so Boeing can change out some flight test equipment before resuming flight tests.  To date, ZB001 (LN 126, N789EX) has accumulated over 150 flight test hours (I'm using Flightaware as my source).  However, by the end of the year all three 787-9 flight test airframes should be deep into the flight test program and recording an increasing number of hours. I expect the first delivery of the 787-9 to Air New Zealand by about April of next year.

Finally, I'd like to leave you all with an idea you all might want to try in your spare time:

To do list: go to a bank wearing a ski mask. Complete a normal transaction. Leave as if nothing happened.
— Ted (@OfficialTedSays) November 2, 2013

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours