Thursday, April 17, 2014

2014 787 delivery prediction and production update

Thus far though the 1st quarter of 2014 Boeing seems to be on track to deliver between 100 and 110 787s.  Aircraft are still entering final assembly at a rate of about 10 to 11 per month which is good but the backlog of completed 787s around Everett has been growing.  That said, last month Boeing delivered 10 787s and they will have to average that rate for the last 3 quarters of this year.

So given the available information that is out there, I put together my best estimate of who will get a 787 this year and how many.  Some of these will be 787-9 deliveries to ANA, Air New Zealand, Scoot, Virgin and possibly American Airlines.  Additionally, Boeing will be looking to complete all contractual firm deliveries to certain customers which includes China Southern (2), Azerbaijan airlines (2), and Ethiopian (5) while British Airways will have their full complement of 8 787-8.  They still have 22 787-9 and 12 787-10 on order.  This table will be updated as warranted so you may want to bookmark it.

All Things 787: Projected 787 Deliveries

The production of 787s continue as the final assembly lines are humming away more or less).  We are seeing aircraft load into the final assembly positions at a rate of 9 to 11 aircraft per month between both lines. While it is too early to tell, the delivery rate for April may look to be around 10 which is what Boeing needs to average over the next nine months to meet its guidance.  There are 4 787s that appear to be ready to be delivered now that they have had their first customer test flights.  There are 5 more that need to have their customer acceptance flights but with 13 days left in the month this can be done easily.  Boeing has been flying a bit more so it seems that the y are starting to over come the traveled work and wing issues that have hung over the program for the last few months.  One surprise is the seemingly lack of any progress to get the 3 787s for Air Canada ready for delivery.  Two are on the flightline at Everett and a third is at the EMC.  I'm not sure but they may be looking for a triple delivery of 787s but as of today not one AC 787 has even performed a first flight despite being painted and ready to fly.  Boeing will need to conduct a few more B-1 flights in order to prepare the aircraft slated to deliver in May.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators



Henry Craig said...

Rumor has it the AC 787's have a problem with the certification of the business class seat belt.

1coolguy1 said...

Surprised the LOT and Qatar planes have been on the tarmac so long. Are there actually problems with these also?
Given the advance schedule the buyers have one would expect flyaway would happen timely in order to get these revenue producers into their schedule.
ANA seems to do a very good job of this.

1coolguy1 said...

Wow - of the 6 planes ready for delivery 3 had their first flights in April - Looks like Boeing is getting their delivery streamlined tremendously.

Anonymous said...

If Boeing's predictions (and yours?) are a bit off, who cares? Boeing never delivers until the new airplane is right and sometimes that takes a while. The company is STILL Dealing with far too much re-work, but the completion pace is generally improving. The company has also been faced with some 'challenging' customers, so demanding silly adjustments and others who are obviously stretched to pay for their aircraft. The customer interface staff at Boeing are masters at dealing with 'challenging' customers (I won't mention any names, but a few are genuine pigs. I can easily imagine more than a few a Boeing wishing to serve the airline's chief a pulled pork sandwich and offering him a ride to the AB sales office. The fellow is a genuine jerk!) In other cases, the airline or sponsoring state cannot or will not produce the MONEY: No new airplane leaves Boeing's hands until the funds are verified. Ever. Some buyers are easier to service than are others. I suspect that Boeing will be FAR more careful in the future, agreeing to sales contracts only with those who can pay - and will pay when their airplane is ready. Boeing is not a bank or (usually) a leasing agency and it has little interest in world politics beyond selling airplanes. The custom and practice is 'cash' before the keys change hands. Boeing will be a lot more careful as they close sales in 2014 and later. Again, I'm not worried about Boeing's future. I also believe that Boeing will be nearly delighted to hand-off a couple of clients to AB, simply because they are more trouble than they are worth. In one case, Akbar Al Baker has pushed well beyond his right and Boeing has already suggested that he contact AB! (IMO, the guy is a jack-ass and not worthy of our airplanes.) Boeing will sort it out...