Revised 787 Delivery Projection for 2013

Back In January of this year and prior to the 787 grounding, I had published my 787 delivery expectations for 2013. While the Boeing continued to execute the production plan despite the grounding and even hit the 7/month production rate far earlier than I had projected, I was expecting that this rate break would occur in early July, it occurred in April when Boeing loaded ZA452 (LN 114, G-ZBJC), Boeing will still have the after effects of the delays to deliveries because of the grounding.  Boeing has a finite number of resources to devote to production flight and ground testing though I have no doubt that they will try to draw on the maximum number of test flight personnel to mitigate the effects of the grounding and get the deliveries back on schedule by the end of the year.

Boeing has said that they will deliver more than 60 787s this year.  Thus far they have delivered 3; one each to Air India, ANA, and LOT Polish and I believe that when 2013 is complete, Boeing would have delivered a total of 75 787s or which 10 would be pre-L/N 66 aircraft that had gone through the modification process at the EMC in Everett.  20 of these 75 aircraft would come from the final assembly line in Charleston, SC and the remainder from the Everett line.  This number does not include the 3 787-9s expected to be built in Everett and flying as part of the -9 flight testing and certification process.

One thing to note that this number includes 4 787s to be delivered to United Airlines.  UAL, its most latest 10Q filing with the SEC on April 25th, said they expect to receive 2 787s this year but I do not believe that this takes into account to increase in 787 production rate that occurred in April.  Their 10Q in July 2013 should shed a little bit more light on their delivery expectations.  Another measure to look at is the actual delivery date of the first 787 to Royal Brunei Airlines.  Before the grounding this airlines was expecting its first 787 around September 1, 2013.  If Boeing is able to deliver around this date then we know that they are back on schedule though there are some 51 787s ahead of it at this point.

Below is my table of the customers and how many 787s I expect them to receive from today on out to Dec. 31st.