Flightblogger: some issues with side of body fix; Boeing: still tracking for first flight before year end

Some interesting developments today as Flightblogger put up a post this morning saying that though the side of body fix installation is going well thus far, but Boeing has issues with the fix on four of the eighteen stringers that need to have the fix installed (on each side of the aircraft) thus Boeing engineers have to redesign the fix for stringers 2 through 5 (they in the aft part of the wing

These stringers carry higher loads and are shorter compared to the other stringers. Apparently they weren't bearing enough load in simulations of the model thus needing a redesign. Flightblogger cited sources saying that this may put Boeing target of flying the 787 in 2009 in jeopardy. ZA001 was supposed to be out of the paint hangar by now according to Flightblogger, citing internal schedules. It has not yet made a reappearance on the Boeing Everett flightline.

Flightblogger also said that there has been significant progress in installing the fix on ZA002 and ZA004, so much so that these two aircraft are catching up to ZA001 and ZY997 (static test aircraft) in terms of completion.

Now the information that Flightblogger put out certainly got a lot of attention so much so that Boeing released the following statement from Scott Francher:

“The design of the side-of-body solution is on track. Installations of the fittings are proceeding well and we are pleased with the progress we are making on this important effort. We continue to be on track to fly the 787 by the end of the year.”

Now for a bit of analysis. Boeing did not address the specific issue of the need to redesign part of the side of body fix in their statement thus Flightblogger may be on to something. It would be very interesting what they have to say about it on Wednesday's earnings conference call where the big topic will continue to be the 787's long trek to first flight.

Flightblogger: Unanswered questions, cautious optimism

Boeing Statement on side of body fix

Boeing may start 787 re-test in early November

I've gotten word that Boeing test engineers are scheduled to be called back to the 787 static test rig. This could signal the testing of the side of body fix for the 787 to verify what Boeing's FEM is predicting. This is all conjecture at this point but a few weeks ago but Guy Norris reported that some of the flight test personnel are returning to work on ZA001 so it could be a good sign that the rework is going according to schedule.

My gut still tells me that first flight would be around last week of November to the first week of December.

787 - First Signs of Life?

Flightblogger 787 Update

Well now that we've reached the end of the third quarter, Flightblogger Jon Ostrower has but up a 787 update reviewing some of the happenings in the 787 program. Here's a bulleted synopsis:

• James Albaugh visited Boeing Charleston. There is talk of Boeing applying for permits to start clearing land for the 2nd assembly line facility. This comes right on top of Washington's State proposal to Boeing to keep the 2nd line in Everett. Also there seems to be some surveying and construction equipment at the Charleston site.
• Flightblogger made a correction regarding when the first 787-9 while be produced. Earlier he said it would be the 109th airframe to come off the line (LN 109). It will actually be the 139th airframe according to the latest production schedule.
• Well the 787 backlog is shrinking but because customers are cancelling. The latest is TUI which cancelled 10 787-8 but took purchase rights on 13 air frames. Whoop Dee Doo. Flightblogger also lists out the threats to the 787 backlog from other airlines considering cancelling their orders. It's a very dangerous time for the 787. They need to get it the air real soon.
• Production - Dreamliner 11 sections should all be in be earlier next week allowing the 787 line to move forward. The wings for Dreamliner 12 will be bought in early next week and ZA100 (LN7) will be moved out to the paint hangar to get an aqueous wash and paint job. It will not have the side of body fix installed. That will be done later but there is access to the areas of the wing and fuselage in order to install the fix. Dreamliner 11 will start final assembly later next week.

Flightblogger 787 News

Flightblogger's Trip to Spirit Aerosystems Part Two

Flightblogger posted the second part of his report on his trip to Spirit Aerosystems. Here he details Boeing's (and Spirit's) plans for further weight reductions as well as initiatives that Spirit is undertaking in their facility to cut down on time and manpower including the use of AGV (automated guided vehicles) that take fuselage barrels from one facility to another.

Flightblogger also said that there will be a major weight saving measure that would be implemented with LN 34 and the 787-9 will be LN 109. The interesting thing is that the forward fuselage (section 41) for the -9 should be the same as that being built for the -8 version with most of the strengthening and stretching being done on the other sections of the 787.

Flightblogger : Inside the South Hangar, Spirit Road to 10/month Part 2

Flightblogger's Trip to Spirit Aerosystems

Flightblogger took a trip earlier this month to Wichita, KS and met with Spirit Aerosystems execs. What he posted is quite an eye opening insight into the 787 program. In his posting he outlines the progress that Spirit, the best performing 787 partner thus far, has made on building the 787 forward fuselage section along with a few other parts for the aircraft. Flightblogger also reviews the challenges that await Spirit and the other partners as Boeing looks to ramp up production of the 787 over the next 4 years.

One item of great interest is Flightblogger's report on the fuselage section for LN 13, the thirteenth flying 787. With this aircraft Boeing is hope to achieve stability in the production of the 787 across the supply chain. It also incorporate some design changes with the aim of achieving weight savings in the 787. The changes that are being implemented with this airplane is known in the program as NC (Net Change) 5. Ultimately the net effect of implementing NC 5 is to reduce travelled work, stabilize the production and help with weight reduction. There will be further design changes that would have to be incorporated in the supply chain but for now Boeing is on its way of stabilizing the production but there will more changes resulting from flight testing.

Flightblogger : Inside the South Hangar, Spirit Road to 10/month Part 1

Boeing: 787 Side of Body Fix underway

According to a blog posting by Randy Tinseth, Boeing has started the modifications to the side of body joint on ZY997 (static test air frame) and ZA001. He stated in the post that the other aircraft will start the modifications in the coming days.

My estimate is that the actual installation of the fix and closeouts of the 787 should take about 4 to 5 weeks. This should bring Boeing to the end of October in terms of the schedule. They would need a few weeks to test the fix on the static airframe and to analyze the data to make sure that full strength has been returned to the side of body.

787 "mod" underway

Lastly, Randy said that ZA001 is still located in the paint hangar while ZA002 is in the temporary structure on the flight line, ZA003 is in the factory, ZA004 is in the rented hangar at ATS, ZA005 is in the factory and ZA006 is next to ZA004 at ATS. ZY998 is out on the flightline presumably waiting for ZA002 to vacate the temporary structure so then it can receive it's mods.

Flightblogger is also reporting the same information and has a few more details.

Flightblogger 787 fix post

Flightblogger: Fix installation to start next week

Flightblogger is citing program sources as saying that Boeing will start installing the side of body reinforcement fix for ZY997 and ZA001 next week. The fix should take about a month to complete meaning that ZA001 should reemerge from the Boeing paint hangar around mid to late October. Modifying each aircraft takes about three months but that time includes the time needed to prep each aircraft to receive the modification and to remove the necessary panels and gain access to the areas where the work crews will install the parts. The actual parts installation should take about a month.

ZY997 is receiving the fix concurrently with ZA001 will undergo the same wing stress test that had revealed the problem in the first place. This is to ensure that the modifications work as modelled on Boeing's 787 FEM. Once the fix is validated then ZA001 should be cleared to undertake high speed taxi tests and rejected take off tests prior to first flight.

Lastly, Flightblogger says that Boeing is about to start final assembly on ZA104 (LN10) which is the 4th production 787. The 787 line in building 40-26 should pulse today clearing the way for ZA104 to be moved into position 1 on the assembly line. That means that ZA100 will be in position 4, ZA101 will be moved to position 3 and ZA102 will be moved to position 2.

Look for the other test flight 787s to also have the modification installed in them over the next couple of months. Timing is still yet unknown.

Flightblogger: 787 fix installation to start next week

Flightblogger: Where in the world are the 787s?

Flightblogger posted a great article today showing how close Boeing is to starting the installation of the side of body fix on several of the test flight 787s.

In his post, Flightblogger detailed the locations of the 6 test 787s plus the static and fatigue frames and the 3 production frames. Here's a synopsis of the locations of these airplanes:
ZY997 - building 40-23 - all prepped for installation of fix, awaiting parts installation
ZY998 - Boeing Everett flightline
ZA001 (LN1) - paint hangar 45-04 - all prepped for installation of fix, awaiting parts installation
ZA002 (LN2) - temporary hangar on Boeing flight- prepping for side of body fix
ZA003 (LN3) - building 40-24 (767 line)
ZA004 (LN4) - ATS hangar - prepping for side of body fix
ZA005 (LN5) - building 40-24 (767 line)
ZA006 (LN6) - stored on Boeing Everett flightline to be towed to ATS hangar to be prepped for side of body fix
ZA100 (LN7) - building 40-26 position 3
ZA101 (LN8) - building 40-26 position 2
ZA102 (LN9) - building 40-26 position 1

Additionally ZA104 (LN10) has some parts already in building 40-26. There should be line move occurring very soon which allow the reaming parts to be flown in and final assembly start on this aircraft.

Getting Oriented: Where's the 787 fleet? Part Two

Also some great stuff from Randy Tinseth at Boeing:

Mod Squad

Undercover Airplane

787 production continuing

Well after a restful (somewhat) Labor Day weekend here's some 787 news. Production is continuing on production standard aircraft and now there is more room in 40-26 to build those production aircraft. ZA004 is due to move out soon if it has been moved out already from the final assembly line to hangar space that Boeing has leased from ATS at Paine Field. ATS is Aviation Technical Services and does heavy checks and other maintenance services to airlines and cargo operators. I think Boeing would put two of the 787s in the ATS hangars in order to perform the side of body fix without effecting current production of the 787. ZA006 should be moving out later this week either to the flight line or to another hangar spot (not sure if it would be a Boeing or ATS hangar). Also of note is that some of the aircraft do not have their engines on. This is to make the installation of the modification easier though the engines are still on ZA002 and ZA004, they were not on ZA005 and ZA006.

This would leave Boeing with three 787 in production at their final assembly line in Everett: ZA100 (LN7) in position 3, ZA101 (LN8) in position 2 and ZA102 (LN9) in position 1. Some parts for ZA104 (LN10) such as the wings and tail section have already arrived but when all the parts are delivered, that airplane will be quickly moved into position 1.

Boeing's LCFs have been busy conducting flights across the supply chain. Now some of these flight could be training flights and/or repositioning of shipping fixtures but undoubtedly there is also some movement of the fuselage sections between suppliers in Europe and Japan and GA in Charleston, SC.

GEnx hanging off 747-8F

Photo Courtesy of the Boeing Co.

Update: See fleetbuzzeditorial.com posting of pictures of the first 747-8 with it's engines:

747-8F with engine pics

Boeing said today that they have installed the GEnx-2B engines off the 747-8F. This airplanes is moving through it's assembly and testing activities pretty fast. In fact the GEnx will most likely fly on the 747-8 before it flies on the 787 which is the airplane it was meant for (forget about the engines that are flying on the GE 747 test bed).

Speaking of which it sounds like the 747-8 will fly before the 787 perhaps around early to mid November and the 787 will follow a week or two later.

Boeing's Press Release is below:

News Release Issued: September 2, 2009 8:00 AM EDT

Boeing Hangs GEnx-2B Engines on the 747-8 Freighter

EVERETT, Wash., Sept. 2 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) continues to make progress on the assembly of the 747-8 Freighter, as mechanics completed the installation of the new GEnx-2B engines on airplane No. 1 in final assembly at the factory in Everett, Wash.

"We are another step closer to bringing the 747-8 Freighter to market," said Mo Yahyavi, vice president and general manager of the 747 program. "This production milestone is a reflection of the strong working together relationship among Boeing, GE Aviation, Middle River Aircraft Systems and Spirit AeroSystems."

The GEnx-2B continues its progress through its engine certification testing. It recently completed the first phase of flight testing on GE's 747 flying testbed.

"The GEnx-2B engine has performed very well during more than 1,500 hours of ground certification tests and 100 hours of flight testing," said Tom Brisken, general manager of GE Aviation's GEnx program. "We look forward to watching the GEnx-powered 747-8 Freighter take its first flight, ushering in a new era of improved aircraft efficiency."

The GEnx-2B is based on the GEnx-1B engine launched with the 787 Dreamliner. The GEnx-2B engine has been designed for the 747-8 and rated at 66,500 pounds of thrust.

"The 747-8 and the GEnx-2B are a perfect match," said Keith Leverkuhn, vice president and general manager of Boeing Commercial Airplanes Propulsion Systems. "The combination of these two technologies will provide our customers with improved fuel efficiency and reduced emissions and noise as well as lower cost of ownership."

With the GEnx-2B engines, the 747-8 Freighter will be 17 percent more fuel efficient than the 747-400 Freighter, resulting in a 17-percent reduction in carbon emissions. It also will have a noise footprint that is 30 percent smaller than its predecessor, making it a QC2-compliant airplane on both departure and arrival.

The 747-8 Freighter is expected to make its first flight in the fourth quarter of this year, with first delivery scheduled for the third quarter of 2010. Boeing has secured 78 orders from leading cargo operators for the new 747-8 Freighter. Cargolux, Nippon Cargo Airlines, AirBridgeCargo Airlines, Atlas Air, Cathay Pacific, Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, Emirates SkyCargo, Guggenheim and Korean Air all have placed firm orders for the airplane.

Breaking: Scott Carson retiring from Boeing on 12/31/09, James Albaugh to take over BCA

As I reported on this blog last week I heard rumors that Scott Carson may retire from Boeing. Well the rumors were correct and Boeing announced Carson's retirement effective at the end of this year. Boeing IDS (Integrated Defense Systems) Head James Albaugh will take over Scott Carson's role as head of BCA effective September 1, 2009. Dennis Muilenburg will take over Jim Albaugh's role as head of IDS also effective as of September 1, 2009

Given the delays to the 787 program this is not much of a surprise and it may not be the last reshuffling of BCA management. I expect more turnover both within BCA and the 787 program. However, much of this probably won't happen until after the 747-8 and the 787 both have started their test flight programs.

Read Boeing's announcement below:

Boeing Executive Scott Carson Announces Retirement; Albaugh Named Commercial Airplanes Leader, Muilenburg to Head Integrated Defense Systems

CHICAGO, Aug. 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Scott Carson announced today that he will retire from the company at the end of the year.

Boeing Chairman, President and CEO Jim McNerney has named Jim Albaugh, 59, to Carson's leadership role at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), and Dennis Muilenburg, 45, to succeed Albaugh as president and CEO of Boeing Integrated Defense Systems (IDS). Both appointments are effective Sept. 1.

Carson, 63, has led BCA since 2006 after two years heading up the unit's sales organization, where he was credited with reinvigorating sales of Boeing commercial airplanes and related services to airline customers and leasing companies around the world. He previously served as BCA's executive vice president and chief financial officer, where he led the finance and business strategy organizations, as well as information systems and services. He also held leadership positions in the company's defense business and was the first president of Connexion by Boeing.

"The Boeing board of directors and I appreciate Scott's long record of accomplishment across many disciplines, functions and businesses, and the enduring contributions he has made to Boeing through 38 years of service," said McNerney. "Thanks to his leadership and operational experience, Boeing Commercial Airplanes has performed extremely well in a tough business environment and remains positioned solidly for continued market success."

McNerney said that Carson and Albaugh will work together to ensure a smooth transition of customer and other business relationships, and that Carson will also assist on special projects for the company through year end. He will continue to lead the United Way of King County's 2009-2010 fund-raising campaign, even after his retirement.

Albaugh, a 34-year company veteran with extensive experience in development programs and manufacturing, has led Boeing's defense, space and associated services businesses since 2002. Under his leadership IDS revenue has grown from $25 billion to an expected $34 billion in 2009, and now accounts for roughly half of Boeing's annual sales. Prior to his most recent assignment, he led Boeing's growth in space and communications, including network-centric operations, global missile defense, combat systems, and system-of-systems technologies. He began his career with Rockwell's aerospace and defense businesses, which Boeing acquired in 1996.

"Jim is a seasoned and effective aerospace executive with substantial experience leading and integrating technically complex businesses and programs from initial development through full production and delivery. His program management and engineering focus will help ensure the success of BCA's key development and production programs," McNerney said. "On top of that, as a Washington state native and the leader of more than 9,000 IDS employees working in the Puget Sound region, he is familiar with the people, issues and programs in the area. He is the ideal leader for BCA at this time," he added.

Muilenburg moves to his new position from Integrated Defense System's Global Services & Support unit, where he served as president of the $8 billion business that provides global after-delivery support for military platforms and systems, as well as a broad array of defense and government services. Prior assignments include leadership of the Combat Systems Division and Future Combat Systems, the company's development program for the U.S. Army. He also led the overall engineering development of Boeing's program to modernize global air traffic management systems.

"Dennis is ready to step up and lead the IDS team," said McNerney. "His experience in technology integration; track record delivering large-scale programs on time and budget; and work with customers in new, developing markets will help us generate new momentum and long-term growth," he added.

Albaugh holds bachelor's degrees in mathematics and physics from Willamette University, and a master's degree in civil engineering from Columbia University. He will relocate soon to the Seattle area.

Born in Iowa, Muilenburg earned a bachelor's degree in aerospace engineering from Iowa State University and a master's degree in aeronautics and astronautics from the University of Washington. He will continue to be based in St. Louis and spend substantial time in the Washington, D.C. area.

A replacement for Muilenburg will be named at a later date.

Boeing releases updated schedule and conference call

UPDATE (9:30PM): Flightblogger posted a nice summary of today's events concerning the 787:

Flightblogger's 787 Update

Also I enquired with Boeing as to the disposition of the first three 787s. The Boeing response is below:

No decision has been made on those airplanes. There are a number of ways they could be used, including for testing on other programs.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with these three airplanes after the flight test program is done. Perhaps they could donate one to the Smithsonian and get a tax write off on that airplane? It would look great next to the 707 at the NASM Annex at Dulles!

UPDATE (1:15PM): In response to how long it would take to install the fix on the 787 I got the following response from Boeing:

For the airplanes already assembled, it will take approximately three months to complete the modification on each airplane. That includes the initial preparation time. That said, the static airframe, ZA001, ZA003, ZA004 and ZA005 are currently being prepared for the modification. In the future, when airplanes entering assembly, the retrofit will occur during the final body join process.

With regard to ZA002, ZA006, ZY998, ZA100 and ZA101:

Preparations on these airplanes will begin very soon but we are not going to provide a specific schedule on an airplane-by-airplane basis.

Boeing has released their schedule for the 787 though it's purposely devoid of exact dates it generally conforms to what was reported earlier by Flightblogger.

Press Release Summary:
1) 787 first flight to take place by the end of the year 2009
2) 787 first delivery to take place by 4th quarter 2010
3) Airplanes 1 through 3 are commercially valueless and will be reclassified from current inventory to R&D - Boeing will take a $2.5bn pre-tax non cash charge against earnings in the third quarter
4) Side of body fix has completed initial testing and is finishing up detailed design
5) Test aircraft are being prepared for installation of the fix
6) Installation of the fix should begin in the next few weeks.
7) Boeing 787 program not in a forward loss position meaning that it will be a profitable program

Takeaways from the conference call:
1) With the new schedule, Boeing has one year to test, fix and certify the 787 for commercial service. They had added extra margin to preserve this new schedule.
2) Modifications to aircraft LN 1 through LN 15 (plus ZY997 and ZY998) will take place at Everett and after that the modifications will take place a supplier facilities.
3) Boeing currently talking to customers on the 787 schedule and getting their input and feedback
4) Production at the 10/month rate won't be achieved until late 2013; 2nd production line will support the 10/month rate but the single line will only achieve the 7/month rate. Suppliers have the current capacity to supply 10/month. Interestingly enough he only talked about Charleston and Everett. No other locations for the 2nd line.
5) 787-9 first delivery pushed back to late 2013 (I wonder if the 2nd line will be dedicated to the 787-9?) - Answer - According to Guy Norris this will be the case, the 2nd line will be dedicated for 787-9 production.
6) The side of body stress condition is now accurately modelled and the fix is modelled as well. The fix entails adding 4 to 5 reinforcements to each stringer. The pacing items for the fix is the limited accessibility to the areas that the reinforcements and the number of technicians that can be inside installing the fix.
7) With the exception of the side of body issue, Boeing is pleased with the way testing has gone, especially gauntlet testing. Airplanes 1 and 2 are ready for flight pending the installation of the reinforcements.
8) There are no takers for the first three 787 (LN 1 through LN 3) due to the extensive modifications and rework that they had to go through, thus they are not commercially valuable and their expenses and value will be charged to R&D and taken off current inventory. Airplanes 4 though 6 does have commercial value (though less than $2.5bn) and will be sold to VIP customers after refurbishment. The program on the whole is not in a loss making position and the charge off is a one time event that will taken against 3rd quarter earnings.

HEre are other articles that have been posted since the call and they all have some information on stuff that I might have missed:

Fleetbuzz Editorial-787 schedule
787 Podcast from IAG
Guy Norris' August 27, 2009 Update

Boeing Announces New 787 Schedule and Third-Quarter Charge

Boeing Press Release is below. There will be a conference call at 10AM today and will listen to it and try and get as much information as I can. The schedule jives with what Flightblogger had posted earlier.

CHICAGO, Aug. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) today announced that the first flight of the 787 Dreamliner is expected by the end of 2009 and first delivery is expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The new schedule reflects the previously announced need to reinforce an area within the side-of-body section of the aircraft, along with the addition of several weeks of schedule margin to reduce flight test and certification risk. The company projects achieving a production rate of 10 airplanes per month in late 2013.

"This new schedule provides us the time needed to complete the remaining work necessary to put the 787's game-changing capability in the hands of our customers," said Boeing Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney. "The design details and implementation plan are nearly complete, and the team is preparing airplanes for modification and testing."

Based on the revised schedule and other assumption updates, the company has determined that the 787 program is not in a forward-loss position.

However, separate from the updated program profitability assessment, the company has concluded that the initial flight-test airplanes have no commercial market value beyond the development effort due to the inordinate amount of rework and unique and extensive modifications made to those aircraft. Therefore, costs previously
recorded for the first three flight-test airplanes will be reclassified from program inventory to research and development expense, resulting in an estimated non-cash charge of $2.5 billion pre-tax, or $2.21 per share, against third-quarter results. This charge will have no impact on the company's cash outlook going forward.

The 787 team working the side-of-body reinforcement has completed initial testing and is finalizing design details of new fittings that are expected to ensure full structural integrity of the joint. The static test procedure that uncovered the issue will be repeated and the results fully analyzed before first flight is conducted. Fatigue testing also will be performed on stringer components to validate the long-term durability of the modification.

The first 787 test airplane and static test unit have been prepared for the new fittings. Installation is expected to begin within the next few weeks.

Boeing will discuss this announcement during a webcast starting at 10:00 a.m. EDT today. That webcast is accessible through http://www.boeing.com/. The company will update its 2009 financial guidance in October when it reports third-quarter results.

End of August and the 787 summertime blues

Well we're quickly approaching the end of August, the end of summer and hopefully the end of a period that Boeing would like to forget. If it weren't for the side of body issue the 787 would be flying around Boeing Field now for about two months. Now we have to wait about another three month for that happen (if Flightblogger is correct) and another month from now to hear Boeing's revised schedule. Too much is now riding on this for them to get it wrong. So with that in mind let's try and look ahead to what's yet to come.

As some of you may know, Boeing big wigs flew into Everett last week from Chicago and I believe the big topic of conversation was the 787. But I am hearing that Scott Carson might be retiring at the end of this year. Coincidence or not we'll see but right now it's just a rumor. I wonder if it's another coincidence that Boeing filed building permits today for the North Charleston site. Me thinks not! Boeing needs the second line to recover the lost ground in 787 production so the second line is inevitable (I said so a year ago) and I think Boeing will add additional autoclave capabilities to the 2nd line. The question will be where will the 2nd line go? At this point, if I'm a betting man it will be North Charleston but that will hinge on the vote by Boeing Charleston workers weather to decertify its union on Sept. 10th. If it is decertified then I think North Charleston is a shoo in despite what concessions Washington State and the IAM would give to Boeing. Boeing needs to have uninterrupted production if they are to catch up with deliveries. IAM going out on strike every 3 to 4 years will only get in the way of that.

Now articles are out that Air Berlin is considering cancelling it's order for 25 787-8s whether this is a bluff to wring out more concessions from Boeing is unclear though it sounds like Air Berlin is making an issue of the delays as a cornerstone of their arguments. That's a little surprising as they would be grateful for the delays as Air Berlin has a lot of capacity right now and they would probably need to add capacity in the future after the world economy recovers and air travel with it.

Now let's see what's happening on the tarmac at Everett. Well not too much there there is a big pup tent in the middle of the Boeing flight line where several of the 787 that will be in line for the fix will receive it. Out on the flight line there are 4 787s: LN2 (in ANA livery), ZY998 the fatigue air frame, LN6 and another test flight 787 in the Boeing 787 livery which I suspect may be LN 5. I think LN 4 is probably in 40-26 and LN 3 is still in 40-22 and LN 1 in the paint shop. That means that LN 7 and LN 8 probably have made or will make a line move soon to clear way to start final assembly on LN 9. The parts of this aircraft are in Everett.

Guy Norris also reported that tests are still going on on LN 2 on the Boeing flightline. He also has a great article on Boeing's moves in Charleston as well.

Guy's August 25 787 update
Guy's Boeing-Charleston Article
Air Berlin Mulls 787 Cancellation

Lastly, is Wall Street turning bullish on Boeing and specifically the 787? According to Scott Hamilton at Leeham & Co. a couple of Wall Street analyst now have a brighter outlook on the 787.

Scott's article on 787 forward loss.

Boeing may take first steps to locate 2nd 787 line in Charleston, SC.

According to KING5 (local TV station in the Seattle area). Boeing will file building permit applications as early as tomorrow to expand the Charleston, SC plant which they had just purchased from Vought a month ago.

While there has been no definitive decision about the location of a 2nd production line, the move maybe a precursor to an announcement that Boeing intends to locate the 2nd line in South Carolina. The 2nd production line will be sorely needed if Boeing is to catch up to promised deliveries of the 787 that were delayed due to the on going issues within the program.

Another scenario (in my mind) is that it would be used as leverage to win concessions from the unions, Washington State and the City of Everett. In other words a bluff. While I may not be the best at Texas Hold 'Em, I would say that Boeing is has a pretty good hand for the time being. This story is far from over and I would not expect the Boeing announcement on the 2nd line until after flight testing on the 787 is under way.

Boeing to file building permits.

Does flying on an A380 mean lower fares for passengers?

When Airbus started marketing the A380, the argument made by some is that because you're packing so many people into a more efficient aircraft (for it's size) that air fares should go down. Well I wanted to to see if that was true. When Emirates started running it's A380 from Dubai to JFK direct it was was hard to compare air fares as there wasn't any competition on that non stop route (unsurprisingly Emirates reallocated that flight to the Dubai-Toronto route).

Now that Air France is on the verge of starting a Paris-New York flight on an A380, it does give this blogger an opportunity to comparison shop the airfares.

For my comparison I kept a few things static across the different carriers I looked at: Flying out December 15th and returning December 22nd. Air fare is the lowest for a single adult.

The comparison would be against AFoo7 (outbound to CDG) and AF006 (inbound to JFK). Both these flights are on the A380.

The total air fare for this flight (from the Air France Web Site) is $824.10.

I compared that against the following Air France flights between JFK and CDG:
AF007/AF006 (A380-800) - $824.10

AF023/AF022 (777-200ER) - $781.10

AF011/AF010 (777-200ER) - $886.10

AF009/AF008 (777-200ER) - $762.10

The following American Airlines Flight between JFK and CDG:

AA044/AA045 (767-300ER) - $679.00

The following Air France flights between Newark Liberty (EWR) and CDG:

AF019/AF018 (A330-200) - $885.10

The following Continental Airlines Flights between EWR and CDG:

CO056/CO057 (767-400ER) - $680.00

CO054/CO055 (757-200) - $680.00

Now a couple of things. This does not necessarily mean that the A380 flight is more expensive to operate on the New York - Paris route just that the air fares that the paying public pay is more expensive compared to most of the other flight options flown on older equipment. Indeed the A380 flights is the third most expensive in the New York-Paris market out of the 8 daily non stops. One explanation is that the other two Air France flights AF011 - 9:45PM and AF019 - 7PM are prime time flight as is AF007 - 7:10PM. CO54 leaves at 8:45PM also prime time while AA044 leaves at around 5:50PM a little before the prime time flight hours to Europe. Also I did not include Delta as they code share their Paris flights on Air France and the air fares are the same.

What about across the Pacific?

Ok to make sure that I wasn't seeing things, I did a similar comparison between Sydney, Australia and LAX. I compared the fares on QANTAS flight using the A380 (QF012/QF011) vs flight offered by QANTAS (on a 747-400) and it's competitor. I assumed in all cases that departure date from LAX on Nov. 25, 2009 and returning from Sydney on Dec 2, 2009. The airfare is for a single adult roundtrip on non stop service. Here are the results:

QANTAS Flights:

QF012/QF011 (A380-800) - $1913

QF108/QF107 (747-400) - $1404

NOTE: QF012 departs LAX at 10:30 PM and QF108 departs LAX at 11:45PM, a difference of only 1h hour and 15 minutes but a difference in price of over $500!!

VAustralia Flight:

VA002/VA001 (777-300ER) - $844.10

This flight departs LAX at 8:10PM.

United Flight:

UA839/UA840 (747-400) - $894.10

This flight departs LAX at 10:17PM

Delta Flight:

DL17/DL16 (777-200LR) - $2635

This flight departs LAX at 10:50PM

Of the five round trip flights analyzed here, the A380 flights is the 2nd most expensive with the Delta flights flown on a 777-200LR being very expensive (by over $700). But very interestingly is that a QANTAS flight that leave an hour and fifteen minutes later is over $500 less in air fare! If I were going to Australia and trying to save some dough well the choice is clear and I would take the QF108 flight (if I am so intent on flying the Qantas product).

In summary the hype of the A380 for the paying passenger really doesn't live up to the reality on the competitive routes. Qantas even beats it's own pricing on one of its most lucrative routes as does Air France when you compare the A380 fares vs the non A380 fares in the same market. The A380 doesn't deliver value to the flying public.

Flightblogger: Boeing preparing revised 787 plan

On the heels of ZA002 performing it's slow and medium speed taxi tests (last such tests for a few months), Flightblogger revealed today that Boeing is in the final stages of preparing a document called Z18 (18 for the 18th revision) which outlines construction and schedule of each 787 in the pipeline for Boeing and each one of it's partners.

Flightblogger reveals that first flight for ZA001 may take place between late November and early December. This would equate to a five month delay to the 787 program on top of the other delays. First delivery to ANA would be 4th quarter of 2010. Boeing has yet to reveal it's schedule and should do so in about 5 weeks or so.

The Z18 document is intended to make sure that everyone (Boeing, suppliers, and even customers) are on the same page with regards to assembly production and delivery of each of the 787s that Boeing is committed to delivering including all financial considerations.

The wrinkles are not going to put a wrinkle in Boeing's 787 plan.

With regards to the wrinkle issue, Flightblogger says Boeing is applying the fix to the affected airframes while it has stopped winding fuselage barrels for airplane 30 on out. The permanent fix has yet to be developed though in my communications with Boeing it seems that they would need add additional plies to the affected areas when applying the composite tape before autoclaving the structure. The affected area is the stringer edge step. Until the permanent fix is determined, the resources in Grottaglie will be reallocated to preparing the 13 sections at that worksite for shipping to Global Aeronautica. This will accelerate the preparation of the existing barrels and when Boeing and Alenia are ready to start winding barrels for airplane 30 on out, those resources will be shifted back again to get that work flowing again. It looks like that there won't be any schedule disruptions due to the wrinkle issue.

Flightblogger also says that starting with airplanes 11, 12 or 13 Boeing and it's partners will implement NC 5 (for Net Change 5). This is a standardization of the structural, wiring and systems design across all the suppliers so that travelled work is kept to a minimum and commonality is maxed out when the parts arrive in Everett for final assembly.

It is here where Boeing is hoping (I believe) that there will be no more travelled work in the production system going into Everett and this would form the basis of the production ramp up. Flightblogger says that parts for airplane 10 (LN10) should start arriving at the end of this month. I would expect that airplane 4 and 5 which are in 40-26 would be moved soon to another location so that LN 7 and LN 8 can move down the line and LN 9 can start final assembly though this is be slowed until the side of body fix in installed and tested. Boeing still wants to modify as few planes as possible after the wing-body join.

Flightblogger: What is Z18?

747-8 is alive with power and 787 update

Boeing's first 747-8F came alive with power on on last Friday morning in Everett. The new est member of the 747 family will also be the longest airplane in the world at over 250ft (beating the A340-600 by over a yard - take that Airbus!). The aircraft still has to run through a host of check out and assembly activities before being pulled outside to the Boeing flightline. There a whole host of information put out including Randy Tinseth's blog (Randy's Journal). So far it's looking like the 747-8F is having a smoother assembly and testing flow compared to its smaller cousin the 787. Boeing was expected to conduct taxi tests on ZA002 but had postponed it to an unspecified issue. The flight test team will probably try again tomorrow or Wednesday.

Big Time (Randy's Journal)
Guy Norris' 747 power on post
Guy's 747 follow up
Flightblogger RC501 Power On

Power on for this airplane is a big deal as Boeing can now start to retire technical risks associated with the design.

787

Now onto the 787. As mentioned earlier, Boeing had postponed the taxi test for ZA002 with no explanation given. I suspect that there was some issue that is expected to be resolved as the flight test team will have another crack at it tomorrow according to Guy Norris.

Guy Norris: August 14 787 Update
Guy Norris: Taxi test postponed
Flightblogger: Brakes put on taxi test

On the heals of Flightblogger's story about the stop work order on sections 44/46 at Alenia, Randy Tinseth also posted a fairly detailed explanation of the issues and Boeing's response to it.

787/Alenia

In his blog entry, Randy Tinseth reassures that the issue is not going to cost the 787 in terms of financial implications or schedule and as I reported earlier, there won't be any weight or aerodynamic penalties either. He also goes to say that the issue has not cropped up on the 6 test flight aircraft that have already been assembled and would not have caused a delay in first flight.

Another moment to groan...another 787 structural flaw

My good friend, Flightblogger, aka Jon Ostrower has done it again. He broke the news that Boeing had issued a stop work to Alenia manufactured fuselage barrels due to wrinkles that formed in the stringers of the fuselage barrels for airplanes 7 through 29. Flightblogger cited a Boeing memo (on Boeing letterhead) that was obtained and dated June 23rd. The flaws are traced back to the manufacturing process of the two barrels (section 44 and 46) in Grottaglie, Italy. According to Boeing, a fix has been identified and the patched should be applied soon. The patched would be applied to the the outside of the fuselage to provide structural strength in the areas supported by the stringers.

Boeing told me that the patch fix is permanent to airplanes 7 through 29 and with airplane 30 the fix is incorporated by adding additional plies of composite tape to the skin prior to going into the autoclave during the manufacturing process. The patch won't incur any weight or aerodynamic penalties. Boeing said they have no timetable for the resumption of manufacturing at Alenia.

What is a little disconcerting is that the stop work order was issued on June 23rd which is the same day that Boeing announced the postponement of first flight due to the side of body structural flaw. While Boeing announced the side of body issue, there was no mention of the wrinkling issue found in the fuselage barrels. Now according to an article in Bloomberg by Susanna Ray, Boeing spokeswoman said that “It didn’t have any material impact on the program in schedule or cost, so there was no reason to discuss it publicly.” Clearly Boeing has been burdened by bad news after bad news on this program and is trying to limit the amount of negative publicity on the 787 program. However with news like this coming out the way it did, Boeing's credibility has dropped another notch.

Flightblogger Report

Bloomberg 787 report

Other 787 News

Guy Norris is reporting that taxi test for ZA002 can conduct it's ground taxi tests as early as this weekend pending a safety walk down. Guy also said that this will be the last taxi tests conducted by any 787 until the side of body fix is installed on ZA001. Other than that the next major event to happen will be the installation and testing of the side of body fix on the static air frame (ZY997). The parts are supposedly on the way to Everett if not already there.

Guy's August 13th/14th update

Earlier this week Flightblogger outlined the location of the the aircraft in at Everett:

ZA001 - In the paint shop where it will undergo the installation of the parts to fix the structural issues.
ZA002 - Boeing flight line where it will conduct ground taxi tests and then will be prepped for installation of the fix.
ZA003 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA004 - In building 40-26 (787 line) waiting for side of body fix
ZA005 - In building 40-26 behind ZA006 waiting for side of body fix
ZA006 - Boeing flight line waiting for side of body fix
ZA100 - In building 40-26 behind ZA005 continuing final assembly activities and waiting for side of body fix
ZA101 - In building 40-26 behind ZA100 starting final assembly activities
ZA102 - Wings, horizontal and vertical stabilizers and rear fuselage in back of building 40-26.
ZY997 - In building 40-22 undergoing repairs and waiting for side of body fix
ZY998 - In building 40-23 (747 assembly line) waiting for side of body fix

Read Getting Oriented

Boeing is "weeks away" from issuing a new schedule; Preparing test fleet for fix

According the Chris Musoke, Boeing's 787 chief engineer, they're weeks away from issuing a new schedule for first flight and delivery of the 787. He was speaking at the meeting of the Organization of Black Airline Pilots in Atlanta.

As proof that there is progress towards testing and implementing a fix on the side of body join, Flightblogger says that ZA001 has been moved inside to prepare for installation of the parts and that ZY997, the static test airframe, has scaffolding surrounding the aircraft in preparation of installation and testing of the fix. The parts needed have already been manufactured and shipped to Boeing for ZY997 and ZA001. If this fix does the trick, the parts will be manufactured and installed in all the other aircraft in the supply pipeline as well as those already assembled.

Access to the areas to be fixed will be very tight and will require technicians to get to the areas through an access door into the center fuel tank and several access holes. The first two flight ready 787, ZA001 and ZA002 have already have had these areas closed out and cleaned for testing which means that they would probably have to go though a close out procedure again and have the tanks washed out. The other four airplanes won't have that issue but this should be all minor compared to the problem that has to be fixed.

Flightblogger also reports that assembly activities are continuing on production standard 787 though some assembly activities will be put on hold until the fix is verified and the parts are installed. Airplane 8 has already started final assembly and parts for airplane 9 will start arriving later this week starting with the wings. Also reported that starting with airplane 15, the fuselage part (section 11) of the fix will be installed at Global Aeronautica in Charleston with the wing box part (section 12) of the fix being installed at Everett when the fuselage and wing box are joined in final assembly.

Flightblogger also reported that ZA004 has completed gear swing tests inside building 40-26. ZA003 is probably still inside the 747 assembly building and either ZA005 or ZA006 is outside on the flightline.

Flightblogger: Prepartations start for wing-body fix