Friday, December 7, 2012

Projected 787 Delivery Dates for December; AMR in a position to finalize their 787-9 order?

With many of the 787s that are in pre-delivery having gone through their first (B-1) flights. I am going to take a moment and speculate on delivery dates for these airplanes.  These are my own assumptions assuming that these aircraft will have to fly the minimal number of acceptance flights.  For now I'm assuming that these planes will deliver between 21 and 24 days after each B-1 flight though there are exceptions (as in Air India, Chinese carriers, and LOT).  This also assumes that there aren't any issues that would need to be corrected and re-tested in subsequent test flights prior to delivery.

Here's my projected delivery dates for this month:

ZA289 (LN 55, N45905) United Airlines - 12/12/12 - 12/15/12
ZA462 (LN 62, A7-BCK) Qatar Airways - 12/15/12 - 12/18/12
ZA464 (LN 82, A7-BCC) Qatar Airways - 12/24/12 - 12/27/12
ZA510 (LN 59, JA817A) ANA - 12/26/12 - 12/29/12
ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) ANA - 12/27/12 - 12/30/12
ZA287 (LN 52, N27903) United Airlines - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12
ZA183 (LN 84, JA829J) JAL - 12/28/12 - 12/31/12

Again this is my own speculation but it's based on previous and recent deliveries of the 787.  These dates are always in flux and can change easily so I trust the reader will not hold me responsible if all the actual delivery dates turn out to be something totally different. 

Lastly, these numbers could change as Boeing can deliver 787s to Air India (2), China Southern (1) and even LOT Polish (1).  Boeing is making a huge effort to try and delivery these aircraft within the next 24 days and the way we can accurately tell is the flight activity of each of these airplanes over the next 2-3 weeks.

Lastly, the pilots union at American Airlines has ratified the new labor agreement with AMR today. This could be significant for 787-9 order that AA intends to finalize with Boeing as the order is dependent on AMR agreeing to a new contract with their pilots.  Now this was all before AMR entered Chapter 11 so the bankruptcy judge and AMR's creditors may have something to say about this order and whether it can proceed.  Additionally, a report emerged this evening that US Airways had submitted a bid for American in November.  What effect an AMR-US Airways merger would have on the MoU for the 42 787-9 American intends to finalize is unclear though US Airways does have an outstanding order for 18 A350-800 and 4 A350-900 by Airbus.  Boeing can deliver the 787-9 to American starting in 2014 (theoretically) which is much earlier than US Airways can get either variant of the A350 that they have ordered.  Also a combined company may be opened to operating a mixed Boeing-Airbus fleet as with Delta/Northwest and United/Continental.  A US Airways/American tie up would retain the American name.







14 comments:

Michael Lowrey said...

Uresh,

As always, great information. Some comments:

1. While I know that pre-flight prep is going faster these days, I don't think they've gotten so fast that they can get that done including paint and have only one other plane roll out. Or put another way, I suspect that LN 87 has rolled out by now, and that its probably the plane in front of the 40-51 while LN 86 is in for paint.

2.Is EMC Bay C still empty? If so, that's an interesting development indeed…

3. Based upon past pattern, the target delivery for most if not all of those 787 that just did their B-1 flights is December 21st at the latest. Now some may slip to the between Christmas and New Years, but that's not the goal. (Last year Boeing delivered 51 aircraft in December: 47 by the 22nd and four between the 27th and 30th).

Randy Austin said...

I agree with Michael, Boeing goes into the hurry up offense prior to Xmas. Once the flying is done the delivery will be a lot quicker. For my money I think everything but the two QTR's will be done flying by the 21st and contractually delivered before Xmas. QTR will be flying over the break. When all the airplanes actually leave doesn't matter as long as the $$$ changes hands before the end of the year.

moggef said...

Uresh, good update as always! Out of curiosity; the two Air Maroc are CN-RGB and CN-RGC, was there a CN-RGA/LN?

NMflyer said...

Anyone recall the last LN# to roll off the FAL in 2011?

johnv777 said...

NMFlyer - I believe it was ZA286/LN50 United.

JohnV

Andrew Boydston said...

B1 for Japan not on Santa's nice list as per Matt Cowby's page?

"ZA183 Japan Airlines JA829J taxis to 34L for a B1 flight."

Andrew Munsell said...

in 5 days my dad will be on 1 of the UAL 787's from LAX to IAH and i am jealous. it is his revenge since i stepped on the 380 before him (QF32)

Unknown said...

Is it too early to speculate on about what LN# the first -9 flying test article will fall in?

Uresh said...

L/N 126

Brent said...

What's going on in Charleston? There hasn't been a B-1 or line move for some time now.

Uresh said...

Will try to address that soon.

Pete Templin said...

From the looks of your spreadsheet, LN88 moved from E 40-26 Pos 3 to E 40-24 Pos 4 (i.e. it switched buildings), and LN89 moved from E 40-24 Pos 3 to E 40-26 Pos 4 (switched buildings the opposite of LN 88). That seems a bit odd to do...any insight?

Fedupjohn said...

Both lines are sharing Position #4

larmeyers said...

It looks like UA went international tonight with a IAH-AMS turn, substituting a Dreamliner for their usual 763 on that flight.