Thursday, October 1, 2015

787 deliveries continue to exceed guidance. 3rd quarter 2015 787 deliveries stand at 37



Monthly 787 Deliveries by Model
Deliveries of 787 continue to exceed factory output for the third month in a row as Boeing shipped 11 787s to customers versus 10 rollouts from the plants in Everett and North Charleston.  For the 3rd quarter which just ended, Boeing has delivered 37 787s versus rolling out 31 aircraft.  This means the delivery backlog is shrinking which is very good news for Boeing.  The overall program efficiency is 0.91 (10 aircraft completed versus 11 delivered).  Everett's efficiency ratio is 0.67 (6 787s rolled out versus 9 delivered).   North Charleston didn't do as well as they had an efficiency of 2 (4 roll outs versus only 2 deliveries).  Of the 17 787s that are currently complete, 8 were built in Charleston (including the 2 Kenya Airways jets).  That's a large number compared to the monthly output from Charleston.  This output has increased due to the phase out of the Everett surge line which is currently producing only 1 per month.  I don't know the reason for the slow down in the Charleston delivery rate but it could be related to customer readiness to take delivery of the aircraft.  Also one cannot help notice that a few 787s have been flown to Everett and were (or will be) delivered from that facility.

Boeing has delivered 329 to date since program deliveries began 4 years ago.  This number includes 54 787-9 and 275 787-8. 2015 year to date deliveries stand at 101.  Boeing has said that they plan to deliver over 120 787s this year and I believe they can achieve over 130 this year.  Over 60% of the total 787-8 order book has been delivered while over 10% of the total 787-9 order book has been turned over to customers.  What is noticeable is that since June the number of 787-9 delivered has either equal or exceeded the number of 787-8 delivered.  I expect this trend to continue for quite a while since most of the -8s have been delivered, of course this is barring any large -8 orders that Boeing books over the next few years.

Notable 787s that were delivered included ZB412 (LN 345, JA873A) a 787-9 for ANA otherwise known as the "Star Wars jet."  ZB362 (LN 346, G-ZBKA) for British Airways.  This is the carriers first of 22 -9s.  They should have over 16 in the fleet a year from now.  ZA685 (LN 343, B-2763) is the 6th and last 787-8 for Xiamen Airlines. ZA225 (LN 344, VH-VKL) is the last 787-8 for Jetstar.  All future 787 for QANTAS will now be delivered directly to that carrier.

Even though this is preliminary, I expect that Boeing can deliver up to 14 787s but this number includes the 2 Kenya Airways jests which I list as "In Storage."  Some notable deliveries planned for October include the first 787-8 to Oman Air, 2 787-8s to Qatar Airways, 2 787s to Scoot (one -8 and one -9) and two more 787-9s to British Airways.  If Congress can resolve the Ex-Im Bank issue (October 2015 might be the last chance to do this until 2017) then the two Kenya Airways 787-8s can also be delivered.

Lastly, word though an article by Flightglobal, indicates that Emirates won't make a decision on the 787-10 vs. the A350-900 until next year.  So we can now forget about any major Emirates orders coming from the Dubai Airshow next month.

787 Full Production Table

15 comments:

b767300er said...

Hi Uresh,

Just a question from the Netherlands.
There are some issues with the KLM businesclass seats.
Do you know if the mentioned dates voor L/N 256 and L/N 368 are still set on 30/11/2015? Do you know what the issues exact are? certification issues or delivery issues (They come from Zodiac)
Hope you can answer my question.

Uresh said...

I heard that there has been delays delivering premium seats for KLM's -9s but I don't have any information on impact to the delivery schedule as of yet.

Jet.Fuel.773-er said...

Since those 2 787-8's are in storage from the closure from the Ex Im bank, how would those birds find find homes if the banks is till closed?

Uresh said...

They're not going to be sold to anyone else but Kenya Airways.

Hiromichi Notake said...

Japan Airlines and 2 ANA will be registrated as follows:

Japan Airlines: ZB026(L/N494) will be JA866J.

ANA: ZB694(L/N497) will be JA887A.
ZB695(L/N504) will be JA888A.

Mario Franjic said...

Can You tell me, please, why the exact type of the engines installed on any of those Boeing 787-8s and Boeing 787-9s were not specified in the ´Delivered 787 List´, and not just Trent 1000 or GEnx-1B mark, but their full marks; f.e.: GEnx-1B74/75, Trent 1000-D... I am sure it is an important and interesting data. Besides, wouldn´t it be in order to put, in the same list, if this is the model 787-8 or 787-9?
Nice regards
Mario

Daetrin said...

Any idea why LN 366 & 368 are in 40-24? Seems a few have had to go back there for some reason. Just like in Charleston there have been a few having to be in Position 6.

Are they falling behind due to a change in manufacturing, a late part, other?

Hiromichi Notake said...

ANA will be registrated as follows:

ANA: ZB696(L/N509) will be JA890A.(Because JA889A has already been registered in the "Kyoritsu Air Company Ltd".)

Pablo Alejandro Higuita said...

Hello... LN 511 for Avianca.. can't be N789AV: http://www.airfleets.es/ficheapp/plane-a320-4789.htm ..

Evan Robinson said...

What affect with flooding in CHS have on production?

Uresh said...

No effect but if an employee has trouble getting in then obviously he has to let them know. B-1 flights still follow normal Boeing protocols. If visibility is below 1500 feet the B-1 doesn't take place.

Joe Cook said...

Hi Uresh,
I love your site. I look at it every few days.

Here is something I have been ruminating about for awhile: very few new orders the last few years while monthly production has increased dramatically. I'm thinking that in about 2-2.5 years, Boeing will have to look at a production rate decrease in order to keep backlog robust. Instead, they are still planning to go from 12 to 14 a month during that time period. I'd be interested in our thoughts: do you think the market will support 14 a month over the long term?

Of course, there are the arguments about growth versus replacement, and also the argument that there would be more orders if there were more production slots. I personally think many of the production slots are soft.

David Cummings said...

Hi,
You have to remember the Emirates order could be for around 100 aircraft, which would be nearly a years worth of construction in a single order. Add to this other airlines starting to replace 757/767 aircraft will start looking towards either the 787 or the A350.

pkade said...

Aeroflot wants to cancel their order. This could actually be of benefit to Boeing since Boeing could resell those slots at a higher price. Do you know when the order was first placed?

Uresh said...

Old news....see here: http://www.nyc787.blogspot.com/2015/06/paris-air-show-2015-day-2.html