Thursday, November 9, 2017

Boeing Grows 787 Order Book With Aid of Asian Orders Ahead of Critical Dubai Air Show

As we barrel ahead to the end of the year, Boeing is starting to get some significant traction on the sales front for the 787.  Just today they announced a "fake" order for 300 airplanes (fake because many of these orders were already announced or placed sometime ago) from China.  The order is made up of both widebody and narrowbody aircraft though numbers and types were not detailed in the announcement (hmmmm).  For sure some of these 300 airplanes are new orders but unfortunately we have no transparency into those details as of yet.

However, in the weekly order and delivery report Boeing showed additional orders for 13 more 787s - 8 x 787-9s for China Development Bank and 5 unidentified 787s for an unidentified customer.  Additionally Boeing showed that an unidentified order for 4 787-8s was for Japan Airlines though this announcement was made sometime ago.  Thus Boeing has 96 net 787s orders for 2017 and would need about 50 more to ensure a book-to-bill of under 1.  These orders also brings the total program order book to 1,296

777 Partners announced yesterday that they are resurrecting World Airways which folded about 3 years ago and is in negotiations with Boeing for 10 x 787s (they didn't announce a the sub-type).  These airplanes would be used to fly to Latin America and Asia from hubs in Miami and LA thus this is one potential order.

The other potential order is Garuda Indonesia finally completing their order for 30 787s though that will probably happen when Trump finally stops tweeting (never happening).

The potential for a major order comes starting Monday, November 13th with the start of the Dubai Air Show.  It's at this show where we can see possible 787 orders from the region's major airlines and lessors including Emirates, EgyptAir, and ALAFCO.  Given that Boeing is sending one of the test flight 787-10 (ZC002, LN 565, N565ZC) to Dubai World Central Airport, I'm willing to bet that there should be a significant order announcement(s) planned for the airshow next week with regards to the 787 (and 737MAX).  Stay tuned next week as I'll give order updates.

787 Spreadsheets

1 comment:

Andrew Boydston said...

The feast or famine prediction for Boeing 787's is 70 or low as 24 787 placed at the Airshow.
It depends on whether customers want to use the Airshow as a bully pulpit for its marketing effort. Having already 96 net 787 orders for Boeing's YTD total, is a remarkable milestone for 2017. Making a 1-1 (138 units) book to bill 787 ratio would be above all expectations for Boeing's 2017 sales campaign. It's possible but would be a surprise if achieved.