Friday, June 17, 2016

Looking good for 15 787 deliveries this month

Half through June  Boeing has delivered 4 787 (1 -8 and 3 -9s) and obviously as is common in this program, Boeing will make the bulk of their deliveries at the end of the month as is usual with them.  The good news is given the flight test activity over the last 10 days, they're well positioned to deliver 11 more Dreamliners to customers.  All 11 have had their B-1 flights and 8 have yet to fly their customer acceptance flights but most if not all of those should be done by the 24th.  One aircraft, a 787-9 for Air Canada, is still in paint.

If Boeing is able to deliver 15 787s this month then the 787 delivery count for mid year 2016 will be 69 which is half the 139 that I project that they will deliver.  This includes 6 early builds aircraft of which one has been delivered and one more should be delivered this month.

Speaking of which, Boeing might have found alternate means of financing sales that would have normally have gone through the Ex-Im Bank.  I'm hearing reports that Wall Street may fill in for the understaffed Export Import Bank and finance these transactions.  This not something that has been verified but if true should clear the way for deliveries of the early build 787s to Ethiopian Airlines.

Production is also going well with 8 airplanes having started final assembly so far this month while 8 others have been rolled out.  I anticipate that by the end of this month, we'll see 13 787 rolled out and 13 other starting final assembly.  The Everett plant is taking about 3 weeks to assemble and roll out 787s on occasion Everett has been able to assemble Dreamliners in as little as 18 days.  This rate will be needed if/when Boeing goes to 14/month.  One of the 787-9s that just started final assembly is the first one for American Airlines.  This airplane should be delivered in late September.

One last bit of speculation.  Qatar is due to receive the 30th and final 787-8 around July 13th.  This is right in the middle of  Farnborough 2016 so I'm wondering if we will see an announcement from Qatar exercising the 30 787 options that they have.  Given the delays tot he A350 and A320NEO, Qatar is not too happy with Airbus(t).  Firming up these options might be away of Qatar showing it's displeasure.  Like I said, just speculation on my part.

787 Full Production Table


1coolguy1 said...

The last two months it appears Boeing's ramp up has come together remarkably.
Is there any reason, given Mays' 14 and Junes' probable 15 deliveries, they cannot establish a delivery rate higher than the 12 as planned, going forward?
It is a big help increasing cash flow as the 777 falls off more than originally expected, so a greater delivery rate would allow Boeing to SELL more early delivery planes than otherwise. Present customers' schedules may remain the same, yet a production level of 1,2 or 3 greater than the planned 12 really gives Boeing a huge selling advantage over Airbus, which is having significant delivery problems. An early delivery date would also allow Boeing to sell those at a premium!

greg smith said...

Still can't figure why they're not showing china eastern's 787 9 order.
Airbus signs with the carrier the exact same day, a few days later,there it is already on their order books

Uresh said...

Most likely they want to have an announcement at Farnborough. That's the only reason I can come up with.

John E said...

Airbus(t) LOLOL

Pete Templin said...

Every rate increase requires a corresponding rate increase with their suppliers. I'd bet that each rate change requires a contract renegotiation (or at least some pre-negotiation went into it ahead of time). Either way, some of those suppliers are under contract for raw parts/materials, and adjusting those things may not be as easy as "we'll take more!". There's also risk of building planes too fast...they need a sustainable rate that'll work well into the future. Building too many now will trigger a rate decrease in the future, which causes all sorts of speculation about Bad Things Coming(tm). I suspect one of the reasons FedEx ordered 50 (+50 options) 767Fs is the USAF tanker order: they KNOW the production line will remain, as will spare parts for 40 years. Look at all of the unrest and speculation about the 747: some people thought the drop to 0.5 planes/month was the beginning of the end, but I figure if they're going to drop the 747, keep running at 1/month until done then reclaim nearly half of building 40 for The Next New Thing(tm) or an improvement to any of the existing programs.

That said, I'm not fully convinced Boeing has their ramp-up fully squared away. Many Everett-assembled planes are taking at least a brief visit to the EMC, often in Bay PH (paint hangar?). Charleston is giving the North Ramp a real workout, they can't seem to get caught up to the right spot in the firing order, yet they're using positions 5&6 as pre-flight testing stations while still aggressively juggling planes in their flightline parking spaces.

1coolguy1 said...

Pete Templin - Good points made in your post, especially concerning possible contract renegotiation with suppliers. As we know, ALL suppliers pursue additional sales, so if Boeing were to press for additional units, I would expect the suppliers would do their best, as plant utilization beyond that planned is where profits are impacted substantially: It's a manufacturers dream to get that phone call.
Just given the May and June deliveries of 14 and 15 when they were to be 12, simply poses the interesting option for Boeing's salespeople, where "for a price" (such as close to list), "we can slip you in the next year instead of 4-6 years out". I imagine there are airlines who want the 787 now rather than later and are willing to pay. This is especially the case given the incredibly slow A350 deliveries, where it's anyone's guess as to what that schedule will actually be the next 2-3 years. Airbus' poor deliveries have severely impacted their customers' fleet planning.
None the less, it will be interesting to watch.

Daniel D'Arcangelis said...

Good point on the slow A350 ramp up. Missed 2015 target by 1 plane, shooting for 60 this year, supposedly, but have only delivered 9 to date, yet to deliver 5 in a single month, let alone average that.

Makes the 787 ramp-up look lightning fast by comparison, even with the battery issues in 2013 halting deliveries for 4 months.