Thursday, February 4, 2016

787 firing order gives clues to unidentified customers



With the latest update to the 787 firing order we're able to have some clarity on some unidentified customers.  This is my own analysis based on the information that I have in hand.

What is notable is the number of 787-9s that is on the firing order for United Airlines.  To date, UAL has announced a total 787-9 commitment of 18 787-9. 14 have been delivered with 5, not 4, but five more 787-9s yet to be delivered.  There can be one of three explanations for this apparent discrepancy: 1) UAL has converted existing options into firm orders but has not been announced, 2) UAL has converted 2 existing orders for the 787-10 into the 787-9 which has not been announced or 3) UAL is one of the unidentified customers who has ordered 2 787-9.  I am leaning towards number 3.

More revelations from the firing order: There appears to be a direct purchase of at least 1 787-9 from Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight.  Here it could only be that this order is currently listed as an unidentified customer for 2 787-9s.

Abu Dhabi Amiri Flight isn't the only Middle Eastern order for an executive 787-9.  It appears that the House of Saud has bought a 787-9BBJ to join the two 787-8BBJs already in their fleet.  The Saudi Ministry of Finance will be taking a 787-9BBJ sometime next year and it appears that this is the only -9BBJ that they will buy for now.

787 Full Production Table

11 comments:

greg smith said...

Why the delay in posting Hainan's,Xiamen's,and Oman Air's 787-9 orders in Boeing's Order book..
Especially with deliveries beginning this year..

Uresh said...

Hainan - posted still listed as unidentified
Xiamen - posted still listed as unidentified
Oman - posted - being leased from CIT Leasing (customer)

Andrew Boydston said...

Uresh, I've noticed Boeing has added 1 787 to its total during January from an ALC order. I have added that one as a 787-9, since ALC only shows only the bigger types on its order count, and it's been awhile since a 787-8 has been ordered. My own tally now shows 1144 787's on order instead of your 1143 total and I have arbitrarily added one 787-9 to the type count on my notes: Do you agree with those changes? Let me know if I am in error.

Andy

b767300er said...

@1coolguy1

You post an earlier question in an earlier blog of Uresh about how many pre delivery flights of the 777 and the 737 are makend before the delivery t the customer. Because i was in holiday, i could't get the exact numbers. Now I am back I can.

I have made a check of the last 50 actual delivery's of each type.

737: Average of 3.26 flights before delivery
777: Average of 4.44 flights before delivery
787: Average of 4.12 flights before delivery

Hopes this answers your question.

Uresh said...

Andrew,
I have 1143 which is the correct number. You may be accounting for the 787-8 ordered by Crystal Cruises twice. I'm accounting for it as a BBJ.

Tom Toms said...

Uresh, any idea whats happening to VS G-VDIA? Your current production table shows it back on the production line?

Uresh said...

There might be an engine issue on that particular aircraft.

Piotrek_ said...

CKE is probably BBJ, but list doesn't show customer, just operator. LN4 and LN5 are indeed listed with BBJ as customer.

1coolguy1 said...

b767300er - Thank you! Surprising the 787 is now using fewer flights than the 777.

Randy Austin said...

Both the 787 and 777 flights before delivery are distorted by the requirement to fly away for paint. When the paint facility becomes operational in CHS the 787 number should come down a little.

Christopher Kemp said...

Hi Uresh. Any idea what is going on with the United 787-9s? There seem to be many more pre-delivery test flights than normal for ZB-181 and ZB-182.