Sunday, January 31, 2016

787 recap for January 2016

Coming out of the 2015 Holiday Season, Boeing is getting production of the 787 back on pace as they rolled out 11 Dreamliners and started final assembly on 11 more.  Unofficially Boeing delivered 7 aircraft including 2 787-9 to Saudi Arabian Airlines out of 4 that they will take ownership of this year.  Boeing may have delivered an 8th 787 to Virgin Atlantic Airlines but I'm still waiting for confirmation of the handover.

Because of the slow start to 2016 787 deliveries, the production efficiency numbers are quite high especially for Charleston which had delivered only 2 787s while rolling 6 out of final assembly (a production efficiency of 3).  Everett fared a little bit better as they delivered 5 aircraft while rolling out another 5 for an efficiency of 1.

Overall, with the 7 deliveries and 11 roll outs, the 787 production efficiency is at 1.57 which not desirable whereas a number under 1 points to a a highly efficient production system.

I expect Boeing to be back on track in February with higher delivery numbers and better efficiency as they shrug off the Holiday usual slowdown.  Right now Boeing is projected to deliver 14 787s which should put them back on track for 139 deliveries this year.  Through the end of January, Boeing has delivered 370 787s since the start of program deliveries.

Overall 787 production improved to a great extent that the company reported that 787-8 production cost dropped 40% over the last 240 deliveries while 787-9 production cost dropped 30% over 74 deliveries made through December 2015.  Importantly the program is now cash positive which will go a long way in reducing the accumulated deferred production cost which stands at $28.5 billion. Boeing expects to realize a decline in this number soon after they break rate to 12/month which I expect to happen around March.  The delivery rate of 12/month should happen during the second quarter...I'm projecting May for the increase in delivery rate.

Many of Boeing's suppliers have already increased their rate to support the 12/month production target but don't expect to see a huge increase in rate as Boeing has said that the total number of deliveries won't be much higher than what was delivered in 2015.  Again I'm projecting 139 787 deliveries which include several early build 787s.

For February, Boeing already has flown 7 787s that are planned for delivery and another 7 are waiting to fly though a few should have their B-1 flights early in the month.  Several carriers will be taking double deliveries including American Airlines and Qatar Airways for 2 x 787-8 while United Airlines, British Airways and Air Canada should take 2 x 787-9 each in the month as well.  Norwegian Air will take delivery of it's first 787-9 on lease from AerCap.

787 Full Production Table


Nick Johnson said...

Have there been any hints from Boeing to date about next steps in the 787 evolution after the -10? Most of Boeing's past models have had higher gross weight, longer range models within a few years, usually before freighter versions appeared. The -8 would seem ripe for a gross weight upgrade to match the -9, which would take it into ULR territory. An HGW upgrade would also benefit the -10. Even the -9 would benefit - it would make routes like SIN-SFO possible without weight restrictions.

It's been over 4 years since the first deliveries, so even though they still have a large backlog to work down, one would think they have to be planning further enhancements soon as it will take several years to implement them.

Hiromichi Notake said...

Japan Airlines will be registrated as follows:

ZB422(L/N526) will be JA867J.
ZB423(L/N544) will be JA868J.

1coolguy1 said...

As to the deferred production cost, the part no one knows outside of Boeing is just how low they went on the sales PRICE side to sign orders. We all know launch customers receive crazy low purchase prices, yet no one knows to what extent Boeing, for the sake of sales and market share, discounted the -9's and -10's. We can only hope the latter -9's and all the -10's, other than the launch customers, paid prices that were more in line with the planes' value.
So as to the DPC, we will simply have to review their quarterly reports to see what the number does.

Piotrek_ said...

Abu Dhabi Amiri has B788 LN141 A6-PFC leased through AerCap, but it's frame without VIP interior. Maybe they wanted B787-9 with full VIP furnishing, but couldn't get earlier slot?

5-7 years long lease deal wouldn't be something extraordinary, LN141 is frame at full specification so finding new customer and interior refurb won't be a problem for AerCap.

Traveling Man said...

Good question Nick. Like to know if there are any plans along those lines myself.