Wednesday, September 16, 2015

787 deliveries in September set to slow down ahead of 3rd quarter end



787 deliveries look to slow down this month compared to the 13 airframes handed over in August.  So far in September, Boeing has delivered 3 787s and I project that there will be 7 to 8 more deliveries by month’s end.  Again the two 787-8 for Kenya Airways are sitting in storage this time in Everett to where they were recently ferried.  The windows and doors are sealed indicating a long period of storage.  It seems they won’t be going anywhere soon.  Another 787-8 for PrivatAir is also still waiting to be delivered but the reason for the delay is unknown while for Kenya Airways it’s the lack of financing to complete the purchase coupled with the closure of the Ex-Im Bank (thank you US Congress).  What is unknown is how many other future 787 deliveries may be impacted by Congress’ refusal to renew the bank’s charter and allow it to finance foreign purchases of US made products.

Notable deliveries this month include the first 787-9 to British Airways and Xiamen Airlines’ final 787-8.  United should also be receiving 2 787-9s and the recently unveiled Star Wars 787-9 for ANA will also be delivered by the end of the month.
Monthly 787 Deliveries by Model
Boeing is now just starting to deliver more 787-9s than 787-8.  In September, I expect that Boeing will deliver 6 787-9 and 4 to 5 787-8.  The 787-9 to 787-8 delivery ratio will only get larger as time wears on due to the large number of 787-8s already delivered without additional orders to increase the -8 order backlog.

Looking at future deliveries, one cannot help but notice that certain airlines will get a majority of their 787 fleet delivered in short order.  For example, British Airways will receive 16 of the 22 787-9 over the next 13 months starting this month.  American Airlines, who took it's first 787-8 in January 2015 will have 17 in its fleet by the end May 2016.  United took it's first 787-9 in September, 2014 and should have all 18 aircraft in their fleet by the end of June 2016 a period of 21 months.  Virgin Atlantic has 17 787-9 on order and has 7 in their fleet already.  They will have 13 aircraft by the end of June 2016 also a period of 21 months from the time they took first delivery.  Boeing large and important clients are taking on the new aircraft in significant quantities as they look to renew fleets, reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and supply a better product to their customers...despite 9 abreast seating.  Other airlines are in no rush, for example, Etihad has 41 787-9s on order and has taken delivery of 5 this year and will take another 5 next year.  A very slow process compared to British, American, United and Virgin.  Deliveries in 2017 will look very interesting but I can see Air France and KLM getting much of their fleets filled out during that time.

787 Full Production Table

19 comments:

Ztev Konrad said...

As other 'foreign' airlines are taking delivery but not Kenya Airways, it cant be ExIm holding up delivery. It seems Kenya is in dire financial straights and no reputable financier will touch them, and ExIm shouldnt either.

1coolguy1 said...

Uresh - In your chart you have a delivery line for the -10. Is that relevant when it is 2-3 years off from actual delivery? I suggest deleting that portion of the chart, as it seems somewhat confusing and certainly premature.

Pat Paris said...

It's a great chart Uresh. At current delivery rates it looks like the -10 will begin assembly in approximately 15 months. Anyone moderately familiar with the 787 program knows there are no -10s out there and should understand your chart is prepared for future -10 deliveries.

1coolguy1 said...

Pat: Details, details - The latest delivery date for the -10 is listed as "2018". We are in 2015, so a graph including the -10 three (3) years in advance is not useful.
My comment AND the graph concerned delivery, NOT assembly, which for some reason you refer to in your response of 15 months, making the comment irrelevant.

Uresh said...

I'm keeping the -10 in the chart.

John N Mitchell said...

I see no reason to remove the -10 from your graphs.
For those who don't like it, you don't have to look at it.

Geoff said...

Thanks Uresh, Like the chart. I was able to figure out the 10's are not out yet.

Rob D said...

I like the graph as is, I think it one of the more interesting one Uresh has posted. Thank you for all of your hard work, I have really enjoyed following your blog!

Pat Paris said...

1NotCoolguy1, I believe you were first to whine about details. It 's impolite and unprofessional to whine about someone's hard work about such menial items especially in a forum such as this. Also, do yourself a favor and change your screen name.

Nick said...

Hi Uresh, I'll echo the others in saying I like this chart too! I'm wondering if it would be possible to include a line for total deliveries (maybe without any shading beneath to keep things simple)?

Uresh said...

That's already in work for the next post.

Brenndon said...

Enjoy this site and all the information and updates on the 787 lines.
Any ideas when the Qantas order for the 9's will show up in the delivers by customer section ? Only the order for Qantas Jetstar 8's are listed

Uresh said...

The order will show up when Qantas and Boeing have finalized it.

Vab Andleigh said...

Here's an interesting article illustrating some of the many new routes being opened up with 787's

http://airwaysnews.com/blog/2015/09/21/realizing-the-787-dream-new-routes-come-to-life-on-the-dreamliner/

David Cummings said...

Arke has returned on of its three dreamliners to TUI and TUI Travel are bow operating it under a new airline name of tui.com

Basil said...

Uresh...what has happened to Charlston of late? Has something stopped the line or similar?
Thanks from Aus!

Traveling Man said...

Short article on Boeing and the consequences of the closing of the export bank:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/30/us-boeing-comair-exim-idUSKCN0RU2DT20150930

Josh said...

The Charleston line is still rolling and should be pushing quite a few planes out this month.

Vab Andleigh said...

this article contains a link to a 4 minute video of a British Airways 787-9 being built from start to finish

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/10/01/dreamliner_time_lapse/