Friday, April 3, 2015

1st Quarter 2015 787 Report



UPDATE: Ok so moments after posting this Boeing put out it's O & D numbers for the 1st quarter.  There were 2 unidentified orders for 787-9 one for 6 (probably Oman Air) and one for 24 (wide open on the customer but could be Hainan plus 6 additional 787-9 taken on lease from ALC).  Boeing did deliver 30 787s per my earlier comments below.  Boeing total 787 order book is now over 1,100 and for the first time the total number of 787-9 orders (496) exceeds the total number of 787-8 orders (467).  This is trend I expect to continue as future orders will tend towards the 787-9 and 787-10 as well as conversions of some existing 787-8 orders to the 787-9 or 787-10.

The 1st quarter has come to an end during which Boeing has delivered 30 787s.  This pace keeps them on track for 120 deliveries by the end of the year.  In March, Boeing delivered 11 787s including the first aircraft from a lot of early production aircraft known as the "terrible teens."  This aircraft is ZA841 (LN 11, N507BJ) was sold to Korean Air to be used as a VIP transport for the South Korean government.  This aircraft was flown to Grant County International Airport for some unidentified purpose.  I can only speculate that it is there for storage, pilot and ground crew training, or interior installation.  Boeing has now delivered a total of 258 787s of which are 238 are 787-8 and 20 are 787-9.

What was also interesting about March deliveries was the number of 787-9 (5) delivered vs. the 787-8 (6), almost half of the delivery totals for the month.  For the quarter, Boeing delivered 10 787-9s vs. 20 787-8s.  This will be an important metric to watch as production cost come down on the 787-9 (and the 787 program as a whole) the margins on these larger version will be higher vs. the 787-8.  The more of these airplanes that are delivered the better Boeing's financial results will look.  It is expected that the 787-9 (and the 787-10) should be more profitable to the company to produce than the 787-8.  This profitability will be even more pronounced as Boeing has delivered over 50% of the 787-8 ordered thus far while only delivering less than 5% of the total 787-9 ordered to date.  Boeing has delivered 24% of the total 787 orders thus far.

Boeing booked 3 unidentified orders in March and also announced the firming of ANA order for 3 787-10.  I'm not sure if the two are one in the same.  There are more potential orders on horizon as Hainan Air, Oman Air and QANTAS may add to their existing orders an in significant numbers.  Hainan is talking about ordering 30 787-9.  I believe that this order may be a mix of leased aircraft as well as direct purchase from Boeing.  There is one 787-9, ordered by Air Lease Corp., that will be leased to Hainan Air (LN 430).  Oman Air has 3 787-8 and 6 787-9 on order according to the carriers CEO while Boeing's Order and Delivery website still lists their order as 6 787-8s.  Oman Air is expectign to take delivery of the 2 787-8s this year and the 787-9s next year.  The carrier is envisioning a widebody fleet of 25 all of which may be 787s though they do plan to evaluate the A330NEO.  QANTAS is already taking 787s for its Jetstar subsidiary since 2013 but they still hold 50 purchase rights which have been moved back over the last few years due to the carrier's poor financial health.  Now that QANTAS has regained a firmer financial footing, there is serious talk of exercising those 50 rights, the first of which calls for a delivery in 2017.  That mean that QANTAS needs to start firming these rights late this year or lose them and the valuable early delivery slots that Boeing can use for new or existing customers.  Turkish Airlines may be another carrier that may order the 787 this year through their timing is nebulous as is their intentions.

In April I am projecting 14 787 deliveries including Japan Airlines' first 787-9 (the 3rd 787-9 flight test airplane), and a whole gaggle of 787-8 for American Airlines that have been delayed because of the continuing saga at Zodiac.  Norwegian's final direct purchase 787-8 should also be delivered this month as well.

As far as rollouts are concerned, look for Vietnam Airlines' first 787-9 to come out of 40-26  as well as Air India's potentially final 787-8 emerging at the end of April from 40-26.  Xiamen's penultimate 787 will emerge from Charleston's 88-30 final assembly building around the third week of April. I believe we should see 5 787-8 and 5 787-9s rolling out of Boeing's factories this month. The only notable 787 that will start final assembly this month is the first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing will start assembling 6 787-8s and 4 787-9s in April.

787 Full Production Table
787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

10 comments:

Michael Mohr said...

According to Randy's journal it appears that Hainan possibly firmed their order for 30 787's the last week of March

Uresh said...

the 787-9 UFO orders are 2 separate orders of 6 and 24. I believe the 24 is for Hainan (with the other 6 being leased from ALC) and the 6 787-9 is for Oman Air.

Momo1435 said...

If Oman Air placed this order the conversion of the existing order would also been booked last month, that makes it unlikely that they are behind this new order.

One other thing, the 787-9 already overtook the 787-8 in December 2014 for the 1st time. It was just by a small margin, which was reversed in the 1st 2 months of this year with the Air Austral order and 2 conversions from the -9 to the -8 by AerCap and AA.

John N Mitchell said...

Slightly of subject:
Celebrating the half-millionth passenger on LOT Polish Airlines' Boeing 787 Dreamliner in this video at: http://fb-222.sfglobe.com/2015/03/31/an-unexpected-surprise-at-an-airport-has-passengers-whipping-out-their-phones/?src=fbfan_38765

Piotrek_ said...

ZB021 ZB021 delivery rescheduled to June?

Andrew Boydston said...

Awesome as always Uresh, I thought the 24 were Hainan's and the 6 was for its leasing partner, but you have better information on the Oman customer. Hainan wanted 30 787-9 in total and was going to lease some of the 30. That was my assumption :(

Hiromichi Notake said...

ZB416(L/N447) will be registrated as JA879A.

Hiromichi Notake said...

Japan Airlines fleets will be registrated as follows:

ZB022(L/N362) will be JA862J.
ZA202(L/N385) will be JA843J.
ZB023(L/N391) will be JA863J.
ZA203(L/N434) will be JA844J.
ZB024(L/N438) will be JA864J.
ZA204(L/N441) will be JA845J.

Christopher D. Dye said...

I suspect 787 orders will grow rapidly now that potential customers can see that the plane has proven itself in wide spread service and Boeing seems to have finally gotten 788/9 production under control. Also, if in fact B's costs to build the 789/10 are much lower than those of the-8, maybe B has some pricing flexibility in competing with the 330neo.

CubJ3

Christopher D. Dye said...

787 orders likely to grow rapidly now that customers know how well the plane is performing in wide spread service and B seems finally to have gotten production on the right track. Also, if cost to build 789/10s are less than for 787, then B may have some pricing flexibity in competingwith the 330neo.