Friday, June 20, 2014

Revised June Delivery Estimate For 787

In my previous post, I estimated that Boeing could deliver about 14 787s in June.  New information now leads me to revise that estimate upwards to as many as 16 though it is quite possible that some of these deliveries can spill over into July for delivery.  They have already delivered 8 thus far in June.

Obviously with the quarter end coming up, Boeing wants to book as many deliveries and income as possible, thus this is the rationale for the push to deliver as many as possible.

Given the new information here is a list of aircraft that I believe can be delivered in the next 10 days:

ZA267 (LN 168, ET-AOV)
ZB003 (LN 169, ZK-NZE) - this plane should deliver at the end of the month but expect it to stay in Everett until July 10th for crew training.
ZA219 (LN 175, VK-VKF) - this plane also should deliver at the end of the month but the delivery may spill over to July.
ZA541 (LN 185, CC-BBF) - should deliver around 6/24.
ZA295 (LN 186, N28912) - should also deliver around 6/24.
ZA456 (LN 187, G-ZBJG) - this aircraft still needs to conduct its first flight but is tentatively scheduled to be delivered at the end of this month.
ZA588 (LN 190, HS-TQA)  - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.
ZA321 (LN 191, G-TUIE) - should be delivered at the end of this month but it may spill over to July.

If Boeing can deliver all 8 then they would have achieved 50 787 deliveries in the first 6 months of 2014 and will have put themselves in a good position to deliver 60 to 70 more in the second half of the year.



tommy said...

I was surprised that you didn't have VT-ANC on this list until I saw that you had it delivering in May. Boeing does not list it on their official list of may deliveries. What is going on with this one? has it flown away yet?

Also, I saw you post on that Air Canada's first -p is ln# 323. Any other post ln# 255 nuggets you can share with us?

Rene Rosales said...

What sort of change incorporation is 787-9 LN202 undergoing? Is it just bringing it up to current standard, or is it possibly related to the mandated changes for the RAT / altitude hold wheel? Would be very interesting if Boeing were actually making those changes this early.

Uresh said...

Since much of the early build 787-9 were constructed prior to the issuance of the amended type certificate, those airplanes will have to go through some sort of change incorporation in order to bring them up to the FAA approved certification standards.

TurtleLuv said...

VT-ANC flew off into service today. The end of a chapter in a way. The last backlog frame to not lose its original customer is out of Boeing's hands. Now just the 14 rejected frames remain.

It never ceases to amaze me what a cluster!@#$ the 787 program has been, and how far it has come. KPAE will look strange next year without a bunch of half finished 787s littered about.

1coolguy1 said...

"Harvard Business School" study in how NOT to bring a product to market.
What will be interesting is when "the books" are written that will expose what a mess the 787 progression was from the start through to the wing cracks, at least.
In corporations "stuff" is supposed to travel up. In this case it appears fairly clear McNerny had NO right being Boeing's leader when such a game changing technology was to be brought to market.
Possibly the B-29 was the last, large plane produced that incorporated so many new, untried technologies of change.
The Board should be held accountable for passing over Mulally in favor of McNerny, from GE by way of 3M. It's just unfathomable why they did NOT choose Mulally, who had just successfully "fathered" the incredibly well managed 777 project.
The shareholders should sue the board for malfeasance and then dump McNerny.

Pat Paris said...

Will -9 LNs 169 and 181 have to go through cane incorporation and rework also as LNs 146 and 202? 169 is ready for delivery.

Uresh said...

Both have already gone through change incorporation.

Daetrin said...

Wow, there are half a dozen new birds being moved to the EMC. Would you know what the reason for this is, e.g. no space on the flight line, travel work, or is there some change they all now need. These are all post LN193 birds, so it shouldn't be the wing fix

Randy Austin said...

The engineer of the train wreck called the 787 was Alan Mullaly, McNerny's only fault was being one of the board members who believed his story and bought the snake oil. McNerny did everything he could do to straighten things out when he became CEO but by then it was far too late.

Should be very little change incorp going on with the -9's, most of it is probably still traveled work. The RAT/MCP Altitude selector which apply to both airplanes will be fixed later.

Uresh said...

There will always be change incorporation when you test while you build. Look at the F-35 program. They're still testing it even after building over 100 of them and IOC won't be until next year unless the fire exposed a more serious problem.

Truth of the matter is that the -9 flight test program was executed flawlessly and there will always be change incorporation given when you build while you's the nature of the beast. The -9 program is extremely healthy and should be extremely profitable for Boeing as will the -10. Program profitability will only increase as more -8 are converted to -9 which II expect to happen.