Pictures Courtesy of BoeingBoeing started the final assembly of Dreamliner 6 according to a press release:
EVERETT, Wash., March 19, 2009 - The sixth and final Boeing [NYSE: BA] 787 Dreamliner designated for flight test is now undergoing final assembly in Everett, Wash. The airplane, designated ZA006, will be powered with General Electric GEnx engines. Progress continues on the fleet. The first flight test airplane, ZA001, is getting its paint touched up this week before finishing factory testing. Power was brought onto the second airplane, ZA002, in late February and build verification tests are progressing well. Production work continues on ZA003, ZA004 and ZA005. In all, assemblies for 31 Dreamliners are currently in production throughout the supply chain. The 787 Dreamliner has orders for 878 airplanes from 57 customers.The thing to note that power has been turned on on Dremaliner 2 (ZA002) which is an important milestone as that airplane is need to perform ground vibration testing prior to first flight. ZA001 is finishing up painting and then will proceed with factory gauntlet testing in building 40-24 (767 line). After that it should have intermediate gauntlet testing done out on the Everett flight line. I anticipate, barring any issues that may arise with the factory gauntlet, that ZA001 should be on the flight line by mid to late April.
According to Flightblogger in a posting today, parts for Dreamliner 7 will start arriving this week starting with the horizontal stabilizer. I believe Dreamliner 7 wil start final assembly around late April to early May. This will be the first production airplane which is a big deal for this program. Dreamliner 2 will start ground vibrations testing next week.
By the way, Randy Tinseth has a great entry on his blog at Boeing with an additional picture. Read it here.
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40 comments:
Good news! Are you still hoping for an April flight if all goes smoothly?
Several questions from last blog which you did not answer:
1. Which part of the flight testing is most challenging?
2. Could you descibe what the "gauntlet" tests are like.
3. When production starts on plane #7, if there are meaningful changes required as a result of flight testing, would that throw the delivery scheduloe off. Since flight testing will take close to a year, there should be close to 14 or more plans completed. Is this correct?
4. Do the assembled planes #7-20 have to be tested in any way? Is that elaborate or standard flight type of testing.
Thank you for answering as many of these as possible
There is absolutely no chance that the 787 will fly in April. The gauntlet testing will take about two months alone and that's assuming that major problems are not revealed in the gauntlet testing.
1) Most challenging part of the flight test-All of it is challenging. This is all new technology that is being tested not just an airplane.
2) Gauntlet test is testing of all the airplane systems teogether as if it is in flight but it's done on the ground. They want to make sure that the entire airplane system is integrated the way the engineers had designed it.
3)There would have to be major issues that are revealed to do that. For example Boeing found that the center wing box was buckling so they had to strengthen it. They found this out while testing the wing box but that helped contribute to the 2 year delay. It would have to be something of that magnitude or even if they found incorrectly installed fasteners like they did, then the rework would take time. If they find minor issues which can be easily corrected on all the airplanes that have been assembled all they way back up the supply chain, then it won't be a show stopper as they have a plan to integrate those changes back up the supply chain.
4) All the airplanes will be flown by Boeing before delivery. Boeing and all airplane manufacturers test every airplane they assemble to make sure that it was done correctly and that there are no issues. It would be a standard test flying which takes about 2 to 3 weeks.
What are "ground vibrating tests" and how long do they last for?
What are the odds that there is a major problem discovered during flight testing...as you described in the example of the wingbox.
After a two year delay, etc. should we expect that most issues have been visited and "tested" and that the flight test should go well.
Is that an incorrect assumption and anything can go in unexpected ways? How would you describe it in terms of probabilities
How confident are you that the testing period will go smoothly.
Is there any way to have assurance that things that were planned will work as planned or is there always a possibility of some unexpected problem. ...and can it be a major problem
You talk about Plane #1 being out on the flight line by mid to late April.
Are you saying it will be ready to fly then or that there are a series of tests "on the flightline". If the latter, which tests are those and how long do they take
Starting with Plane #7, how many planes will be produced during the ensuing year. (I read somewhere that there are presently 31 planes "in the system").
Put another way, how many planes will be produced and ready to be delivered ( if there are no big problems discovered during flight testing) by the time the planes 1-7 have finished their test and ready for certification
Well there are things that would only reveal themselves in flight testing. But Boeing and it's suppliers have done a lot of pre-flight testing of the structures and systems and they'll continue to do it even after the aircraft has entered service. Hopefully they've captured all the major problems at this point but it's hard to give odds on if they'll find something major. I think it'll be small.
There is always a chance that something can go wrong but hopefully Boeing would have identified any major issues and have taken corrective action.
It'll be out on the flight line (I think in mid to late April) for gauntlet testing. It won't be for first flight. That's not going to happen until June I believe.
They'll continue to assemble planes throughout the flight test program and then store them (i.e not fly them) untilthe FAA and EASA has certified the 787. I'm not sure how many will actually be produced between now and next March but I'm guessing that they'll assembly 1.5 to 2 per month.
Why are they only producing 1.5 -2 planes per month. I gather that would bring it to close to 20 planes....and is that because planes 21-on are modified versions of the first tranch.
I guess they are building up the production line slowly, because when they first discussed production , they thought they could work their way up to one plane every few days...I guess that is after all the kinks are worked out and they have a second line, and they have figured how to do it correctly..
That's correct, they're gradually increasing the production rate so as not to over stress the supply chain.
Has the fastner problem been removed and replaced from the first six planes?
Do planes 7 -20 have fastner problem exposure or are they free of that issue.
Will Boeing make a public announcement of the beginning of "production" when they start on plane #7.
Since you call it an important milestone, will it be seen as that
From your understanding, Has the supply chain healed its weaknesses and has it returned to normalized production supply without flaws in the products.
healed in the sense of functioning at the present level smoothly and orderly.
No not all. They still have fastener rework going on on planes 3 to 6 and beyond. The suppliers are taking care of the most of them while Boeing took care of the rework in planes 1 to 4 but it still an ongoing thing.
They'll probably will make some sort of announcement when they start final assembly on that airplane (LN 7). Beyond that I don't think so.
For the most part the supply chain has settled down but now they're moving into production of airline deliverable airplanes so that going to present a new set of challenges for them and Boeing. There's been changed specs and lessons learned that have to flow throughout the supply chain so the next 12 months will be critical in terms of ramping up the production rate.
When do you think the fastener problems will be completed on planes 3-6? By the time the testing takes place or the flying takes place.
From your answer, I gather plane 1 & 2 are free of the problem
Can you comment on the overall problem of the fastners..i.e. in control...delaying ...problematic..will not interfere with certification. etc
Are you optimistic that the supply chain has learned its lessons and can absorb these changes of specs, etc.
Or is this a big challenge and the answer will not be known until their performance reveals it.
I understand you cannot predict the future..but the question is how confident are you in their adaptability
! nad 2 have most of their fasteners that need to be replaced already done. The 6 test airplanes will havesome more fastener rework to be done after the test flight program but those fasteners are in non-critical areas and do not represent a safety offlight issue.
It sounds like there is still a reasonable amount of risk in front of the 787 program...both in the flight testing and on the production side.
Given the record of slips and failures, why should one have confindence that they will get through the flight tests without glitches as well as ordering the supply line with dicipline and efficiency
Many shareholders have a lack of confidence in the present management and evolution of the 787 program. Years behind and riddled with failures, delays and a supply chain that falls all over itself. the Officers of Boeing have done a terrible job. As transparent as they said they would be, they were not and misled.
Can the 787 program overcome the obstacles of poor management
All programs at this point have risk. In my opinion the greatest risk to the 787 program is not in the ramp up to production or the suppliers adjusting to producing the standard non test flight 787s, rather it's theunknown unknowns that will come out during flight testing. It's hard to quantify something like that.
In an earlier response to someone, you indicated that you thought Boeing had possibly caught most of the larger possible problems.
I realize that there is no such thing as 100% guarantee, but what sort of major unknowns could crop up...and could they be "significant". That is, could there be a major breech of the system, or would there be a teeth rattling flutter, or the exterior starts to crack, etc.
With all the planning and delays, etc and simulations, what type of possibilities are there?
(If there was a major retrofit, the stock would crater worse than it already has and all the Officers should be fired)
I really doubt that there would be any problems like what you're describing. I have know idea what kind of unknown problems could crop up, I guess that's why they're called unknown unknowns.
Uresh, could we see a major ?....One cannot measure the unknown but there must be some intuitive thoughts here...
In my opinion, I don't think there will be a major issue that will be uncovered by flight testing. The underlying technology has been tested long before the 787 was conceived. It's all now coming together.
Many people I know think that there can be some surprises from the software system and its integration.
Would you care to comment on this aspect of the plane and its test flight.
Doesn't alot of the program get tested during the gauntlet period...under circumstances as if it were in flight...
But flight must present other challenges...could you clarify this aspect of the 787
The gauntlet testing is for testing all the software and systems integration so that everything is running together before first flight. All this will happen to minimize any surprises during flight test.
That's all I can tell you. Will there be challenges during flight tests...yes. Do I know what they'll be...no.
Thank you for all you concise and focused answers. It has been quite interesting to read through the comments and responses...its almost like an expanded blog!
I guess the above covers many of the issues and facets of flight testing.
One more question...How long a period of time will it take to complete the flight testing. I read somewhere where close to 3100 hours of fight is required.
Please clarify ...thanks again
The above question has to do with the actual amount of flight time in the air.
What about the amount of time in "flight testing" on the ground before flying. Is there some expected period of time that is needed to complete these tests or is it simply the period of time it will take to accomplish the needed milestones.
Can you give us some frame of reference for both non flight and flight testing.
Do you think the supply chain has been adequately modified and rectified? Will the slow buildup of production allow for any further coordinated changes/adaptations, etc. Where are the weak links in the chain
Is Boeing being honest in its reports. In the past they said things were ok and then announced delays. How do they build back confidence?
Will each milestone be announced? Will there be any transparency in their reports on progress? Will we have to wait for the plane to fly before we know that they are telling the truth?
Thanks for all your answers to all these questions Uresh. It seems that you have a lot of work now dealing with so many questions. But is just as good for us reading them and learning so that we don't have to ask them in the future.
Keep up the good work.
Thanks for your responses to the above slew of questions. It is helpful reading for us and and probably gives you some satisfaction that so many are reading your Blog.
We appreciate your efforts and answers!
Do you know when "gauntlet testing" is scheduled to begin on Plane #1?
Testing should start in about a week or so I think.
Someone asked what ground vibration testing is. This is a very simple explanation. During a ground vibration test they will shake the airplane and measure how it responds. This is used to determine what its natural frequencies are (the frequency at which the structure resonates) and modeshapes (the shape the structure deforms to when it vibrates) as well as the damping in the structure (how quickly the energy from vibration is disipated).
This ground vibration test data is used to validate the dynamic modelling of the structure, and is particularly important for analysing flutter.
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