Saturday, June 11, 2016

Boeing posts 14 787s deliveries in May



Boeing delivered 14 787s in May which was 1 more than I had expected them to deliver in the month.  The 14th unexpected delivery was a 787-9 to Japan Airlines and this certainly helps Boeing to get back on track in terms of the delivery target for the year.

In the past month Boeing started final assembly on 12 787s and rolled out 13 to start the flight testing and delivery process.  Over all the efficiency ratio for the month of May is a decent 0.93 (13 roll outs divided by 14 deliveries).  For Everett, the ratio was 1 which meant that they delivered the same number of 787s that they rolled out (8 rolled out and 8 delivered).  For North Charleston, the ratio was much better at 0.83.  That plant rolled out 5 787s and delivered 6 which meant that they delivered airplanes that were intended to be turned over in April.

One notable delivery made by Boeing in May was to Air Austral's first 787-8 which was ZD002 (LN 22, F-OLRC).  This was the first early built 787 to be delivered since March 2015.  I expect Boeing to deliver 5 more early build 787-8s this year including one this month (if all goes well; more on this later). Other notable deliveries made in May was the last 787-8 that ANA had on order and the first 787-9 for Air China.

Through May 2016 Boeing has delivered 417 787s since program deliveries began in September 2011.  54 have been delivered in 2016 through the end of May.  Of the 54 787s delivered through May, 40 are 787-9s and 14 are 787-8s.  In May Boeing delivered 6 787-8s and 8 787-9s.  The number of 787-8s to be delivered has continuously decreased as others for the smallest version of the 787 family has dried up.  Over 70% of the current total orders for the 787-8 have been delivered leaving about 126 -8s to be delivered.  In comparison, Boeing has yet to deliver 457 of the larger and more expensive 787-9s.  Over 20% of this order book have been delivered.



In June I expect Boeing to continue the 12/month production rate with 6 787s entering final assembly each in Everett and North Charleston.  This will include the 1st 787-8 for Uzbekistan Airways.  An interesting point to make is that Everett is taking about 21 days to assembly the 787 (from loading in position 1A to roll out from position 4).  For North Charleston the number of days is about 28 to 29.  Each 787s that rolls out still spends some time getting minor assembly tasks completed as well as some ground testing before being released to Boeing flight test but the aircraft is, in essence, assembled.

I expect that Boeing should be able to deliver 15 787s in June.  Thus far they have delivered 2 (both 787-9s) including the first to Steven Udvar-Hazy's Air Lease Corp. (ALC) which leased the aircraft to Hainan Airlines.  Most of the aircraft that are scheduled for a June delivery have already have had their B-1 flights.  Two 787s including one in Charleston that still has to be painted have yet to make their first flights and it is starting to gt a little tight schedule wise.

Other notable deliveries will be an early build 787-8 to Ethiopian Airlines. This aircraft, ZD004 (LN 12, ET-ATL) is currently in paint and one of 6 early build 787-8s that Ethiopian agreed to buy last year.  The only hiccup may come in the form of the (continuing) issues at the Ex-Im Bank as only 2 of the 5 board seats a re filled.  A minimum of 3 need to be filled in order for financing of purchases over $10 million to be approved.  Currently the Republican controlled House of Representatives are holding up the approval of the board nominees.  Boeing is still currently showing delivery of ZD002 for June 29th with a C-1 customer flight scheduled for 6/21.  If Boeing can deliver 15 787s in June they'll be half way to my predicted delivery target of 139 787s.  They would need to average 12 deliveries per month for the second half of the year to accomplish that goal.  Stay tuned and let's see what happens.

787 Full Production Table
Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2016 Projected Operator Deliveries
2016 Projected Customer Deliveries
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

An Appeal

For 8 years I've shared my passion for aviation through this blog.  It obviously doesn't pay the bills and thus is a labor of love.  I've worked in the finance field for over 25 years, specifically covering residential mortgage backed securities. Now major changes in this industry bought on by new regulations in the wake of the 2007-2008 financial crises is forcing companies to reduce headcount and put a lot of talented people out of a job including myself.  I am part of a dying industry and I recognize the need to move onto something which I can be passionate about while at the same time being able to support my family.

Thus I am making an appeal to those of you who read and follow my blog.  If you are in the aerospace industry or related to the aerospace industry and can use someone with my skill set, please contact me so I can send you my resume and perhaps starting a dialog that would be mutually beneficial.  I know it's probably unusual for a blogger to be asking for a job though a blog but if I can reach people who can help me then why not.  Thank you for your support!

Sunday, May 15, 2016

10 Dreamliners delivered in April, 13 expected in May and Boeing gets a new -9 order!



Since it's been a while between posts, I have a lot of ground to cover so on with it!

April saw Boeing increase it's assembly rate to 12/month split 7 for Everett and 5 for Charleston.  It appears they executed the rate break flawlessly.  They are rolling out the airplanes at 12/month but don't expect to see the delivery rate to hit 12 until June or July (more on expected deliveries a little later).

Boeing did deliver 10 787s in April thus maintaining the 10/month delivery rate.  Through April Boeing has delivered 40 787s with 8 787-8s being delivered as oppose to 32 of the larger 787-9s including the first 787-9 purchased directly by Air France/KLM (for KLM) as well as the 400th 787 which went to Scoot (a 787-8, ZA857, LN 415, 9V-OFE) and the 100th 787-9 delivered - to Air Canada, ZB566 (LN409, C-FGEO).  Thus 2 significant milestons hit in one month.In terms of production efficiency in April, the numbers won't look good given the increase in production rate has yet to be met with a corresponding increase in the delivery rate.With 12 airplanes rolled out to 10 being delivered, the production efficiency was low at 1.2.

Thus far in May, Boeing has rolled out 6 787s and delivered 2 including the last 787-8 for the first buyer of the 787, ANA. Again most of the deliveries are at the backend of the month.  I expect deliveries to come in around 12 to 13 including 1 early build 787-8 for Air Austral, ZD002 (LN 22, F-OLRC) which is expected to deliver around May 20th.  I also expect that with the delivery to Air Austral, Boeing would have delivered 300 787-8 - another milestone achieved.  How ironic that the 300th 787-8 delivered would be an early build 787 that was first assembled in 2010, exactly 6 years ago.  Speaking of early build 787s, Boeing has 2 that have been rolled out and flown including the aforementioned ZD002 but also ZD004 (LN 12), the first of Ethiopian's top up order of 6 early build Dreamliners.  A 2nd one for Ethiopian (ZD006, LN 14) was also rolled out this month as is undergoing final assembly tasks on the interior as well as the tail while sitting on the tower apron at Everett.  The delivery of these early build airplanes will skew the delivery numbers a little higher and increase the production efficiency a bit.  I'm still expecting 6 early build 787 deliveries this year.

However, the deliveries to Ethiopian maybe put on hold due to continuing issues with the Export - Import Bank that would finance the purchase made by Ethiopian.  The issue is that the Republicans in the Senate are blocking the the approval of a third board member to the bank's board.  There are currently 2 board members but a 3rd is needed to approve purchase of over $10 million.  The bank needs a quorum of 3 out 5 board members to approve those large deals.  A single US Senator, Richard Shelby, is blocking the approval of the 3rd board member.

On the order front, Boeing finally signed a deal for 15 787-9 to China Eastern Airlines but I am anticipating that we'll finally see some more 787 order announcements (or revelation of unknown customers) at the 2016 Farnborough Airshow which starts July 11th.  The most anticipated order should come from Emirates for an order of 75 to 100 787s including options.  Turkish Airlines is talking to Boeing and Airbus about orders for the 787/A350 but it seems that those talks have gone on for a few years. Maybe this year will be the year.

Boeing held it's 1st quarter earning call late last month and about the only thing that was news worthy was the better than expected increase in deferred production costs which was $141 million. It raised total deferred production on the 787 program to $28.7bn.  Boeing attributes the lower increase to better mix of 787s being produced (787-9 vs. 787-8) as well as unit cost reductions.  QoQ deferred production cost growth decreased 30%.

Lastly as we look forward to future deliveries in 2016, Boeing still has to get it together in terms of delivery rate.  Some late deliveries are out of Boeing's hand like the late deliveries of 2 787-9 for British Airways which is attributable to issues at Zodiac (again).  However with 42 deliveries completed through mid May out of a projected total of 139, Boeing needs to deliver between 12 and 13 787s each month to hit the delivery mark by the end of the year.  So far in May it's looking ok but I would be more comfortable if they delivered 13 per month knowing that December will be a rather slow month in terms of delivery activity.  It is entirely possible that 500th 787 to be delivered could take place in December but it's way to early to know who lucky number 500 will go to.

787 Full Production Table