Sunday, May 15, 2016

10 Dreamliners delivered in April, 13 expected in May and Boeing gets a new -9 order!

Since it's been a while between posts, I have a lot of ground to cover so on with it!

April saw Boeing increase it's assembly rate to 12/month split 7 for Everett and 5 for Charleston.  It appears they executed the rate break flawlessly.  They are rolling out the airplanes at 12/month but don't expect to see the delivery rate to hit 12 until June or July (more on expected deliveries a little later).

Boeing did deliver 10 787s in April thus maintaining the 10/month delivery rate.  Through April Boeing has delivered 40 787s with 8 787-8s being delivered as oppose to 32 of the larger 787-9s including the first 787-9 purchased directly by Air France/KLM (for KLM) as well as the 400th 787 which went to Scoot (a 787-8, ZA857, LN 415, 9V-OFE) and the 100th 787-9 delivered - to Air Canada, ZB566 (LN409, C-FGEO).  Thus 2 significant milestons hit in one month.In terms of production efficiency in April, the numbers won't look good given the increase in production rate has yet to be met with a corresponding increase in the delivery rate.With 12 airplanes rolled out to 10 being delivered, the production efficiency was low at 1.2.

Thus far in May, Boeing has rolled out 6 787s and delivered 2 including the last 787-8 for the first buyer of the 787, ANA. Again most of the deliveries are at the backend of the month.  I expect deliveries to come in around 12 to 13 including 1 early build 787-8 for Air Austral, ZD002 (LN 22, F-OLRC) which is expected to deliver around May 20th.  I also expect that with the delivery to Air Austral, Boeing would have delivered 300 787-8 - another milestone achieved.  How ironic that the 300th 787-8 delivered would be an early build 787 that was first assembled in 2010, exactly 6 years ago.  Speaking of early build 787s, Boeing has 2 that have been rolled out and flown including the aforementioned ZD002 but also ZD004 (LN 12), the first of Ethiopian's top up order of 6 early build Dreamliners.  A 2nd one for Ethiopian (ZD006, LN 14) was also rolled out this month as is undergoing final assembly tasks on the interior as well as the tail while sitting on the tower apron at Everett.  The delivery of these early build airplanes will skew the delivery numbers a little higher and increase the production efficiency a bit.  I'm still expecting 6 early build 787 deliveries this year.

However, the deliveries to Ethiopian maybe put on hold due to continuing issues with the Export - Import Bank that would finance the purchase made by Ethiopian.  The issue is that the Republicans in the Senate are blocking the the approval of a third board member to the bank's board.  There are currently 2 board members but a 3rd is needed to approve purchase of over $10 million.  The bank needs a quorum of 3 out 5 board members to approve those large deals.  A single US Senator, Richard Shelby, is blocking the approval of the 3rd board member.

On the order front, Boeing finally signed a deal for 15 787-9 to China Eastern Airlines but I am anticipating that we'll finally see some more 787 order announcements (or revelation of unknown customers) at the 2016 Farnborough Airshow which starts July 11th.  The most anticipated order should come from Emirates for an order of 75 to 100 787s including options.  Turkish Airlines is talking to Boeing and Airbus about orders for the 787/A350 but it seems that those talks have gone on for a few years. Maybe this year will be the year.

Boeing held it's 1st quarter earning call late last month and about the only thing that was news worthy was the better than expected increase in deferred production costs which was $141 million. It raised total deferred production on the 787 program to $28.7bn.  Boeing attributes the lower increase to better mix of 787s being produced (787-9 vs. 787-8) as well as unit cost reductions.  QoQ deferred production cost growth decreased 30%.

Lastly as we look forward to future deliveries in 2016, Boeing still has to get it together in terms of delivery rate.  Some late deliveries are out of Boeing's hand like the late deliveries of 2 787-9 for British Airways which is attributable to issues at Zodiac (again).  However with 42 deliveries completed through mid May out of a projected total of 139, Boeing needs to deliver between 12 and 13 787s each month to hit the delivery mark by the end of the year.  So far in May it's looking ok but I would be more comfortable if they delivered 13 per month knowing that December will be a rather slow month in terms of delivery activity.  It is entirely possible that 500th 787 to be delivered could take place in December but it's way to early to know who lucky number 500 will go to.

787 Full Production Table


greg smith said...

Nice to see if qatar commits to the their last -8 should be delivered soon

Vab Andleigh said...

Given Qatar's growth plans and their large fleet of 777's (50 of them) with similar cockpits to 787s and Qatar's recent troubles with Airbus a320neos, one could certainly speculate to the possibility of a follow-on 787 order

Dave Richardson said...

Air China B789s ZB048 & ZB049 are B-7878 & B-7879 respectivly.

JR said...

The delivery process????

It would be interesting to know how airlines come to the factory to pick up their deliveries. Do they catch a scheduled flight or do they get picked up by Boeing or fly in on their own? Where do they stay and for how long are they there before flying back?


Pete Templin said...

What are the odds LN12/ZD004 is transitioning to long-term desert storage at Victorville? It went into paint on or about 5/14, and paint jobs normally take 9 days. LN435 went there for paint on or about 5/27, so unless they're short on pilots over the holiday, I wonder...

donhoman1944 said...

I am wondering if early 787's are getting more work than painting at Victorville. LN11/ZA841 (Korean Air) spent 2/20 to 3/17 at Victorville and LN22/ZA115 (Air Austral) spent 1/25 to 3/7 at Victorville. So both aircraft spent over a month at Victorville. Does Uresh have any more information?

Uresh said...

It could be that they're taking their time for certain reasons. For example LN 22 was ready well before the delivery date. Air Austral wasn't prepared to take delivery until late May. I do think a lot has to do with not just when Boeing can finish them but also other factors such availability of financing and customer readiness to actually take delivery and press the aircraft into service.

HK Expat said...

All terrible teens take approx. 30 days in the paint hangar in Victorville. the main reason being that they were previously painted so its not only the case of 8-9 days of fresh paint, its also the case of about 20 days to remove the previous paint. paint is heavy so if you simply keep painting on top of the old paint you're adding unnecessary weight to an already over weight aircraft!

Sammy Steffensen Benomar said...

Thank you for your great work about the 787! But I'd just like to correct something incorrect in your 787 production list, the 3rd 4th and 5th 787 of royal air Maroc will not be registered as CN-RGD, CN-RGE and CN-RGF but CN-RGS, CN-RGT and CN-RGU because GD-GE-GF are allredy registration of active 738 in royal air Maroc fleet ��. So I just wanted to give you this information! Thanks again for you work, and keep on!

Uresh said...

Thanks for the kind words and the info!

Dave Richardson said...

Some missing registrations

#439 = G-TUIJ
#446 = B-7835
#453 = B-7837
#455 = B-7800

Also I have #450 as G-CIXO not EI-LNK



Pete Templin said...

It makes sense that a terrible teen is getting a repaint, not a first-paint. However, most airlines that have made YouTube videos and other documentaries about planes getting repainted claim the job takes 13-15 days, not 30. Is there something special about a TT compared to an in-service airliner?

Rob D said...

The 787 is mostly composit

1coolguy1 said...

I wonder if JAL is lamenting its' purchase of the A350-900 and -1000 instead of the 777X, now that the A350 has completely blown its' ramp up and delivery schedule. It seems they overreacted to the 787's late delivery their fleet shut down from the battery debacle. I don't see how Airbus can keep to the 2019 delivery schedule they committed to with JAL.
Any thoughts?