Thursday, January 10, 2019

2019 - 787 Who Gets What - A Program Look Ahead

Boeing will attempt to surpass the widebody delivery record which they set last year with 145 787s.

The break in rate to 14/month is supposed to occur sometime in the 1st quarter and many suppliers are already producing various components at the higher rate.  The true test will when the first 787 at the higher rate is loaded either in Charleston or Everett but it is one thing to assemble the aircraft at 14/month and another matter when delivering the product at that rate.

I expect that Boeing will deliver around 164 787s this year.  At 14/month Boeing can roll out 168 787s but since they're going to break rate at some unknown point this quarter I am not assuming that they will assemble and deliver 168 787s this year.  I am assuming that Boeing will break rate by mid February and start delivering at 14/month around early April.  Thus the delivery rate for the first quarter will be at 12/month.   That is 36 deliveries.  Thereafter I am assuming a delivery rate of 14/month which will be 126 deliveries for a total of 162 787 deliveries plus the two 787s that weren't delivered in 2018 (a 787-9 for Air China and a 787-10 for United Airlines).

In 2019 there are several customer who will be first time 787 operators:


-->
1st Time 787 Operator1st Time 787-8 Operator1st Time 787-9 Operator1st Time 787-10 Operator
EgyptAirEl Al AirlinesAviancaANA
Hong Kong AirlinesEgyptAirEva Air
Suparna AirlinesHong Kong AirlinesKLM
Turkish AirlinesQatar AirwaysSaudi Arabian
WestjetSuparna AirlinesVietnam Airlines
Turkish Airlines
Westjet

EgyptAir and Hong Kong Airlines will be taking their first 787s on lease as will Vietnam Airlines as they induct the 787-10 into their fleet. Qatar Airways will also taking delivery of their first 787-9 after taking delivery of 30 787-8s. Westjet is inducting the first of 10 787-9s and Turkish is also starting deliveries of the -9.

In terms of the breakout of the deliveries, this is pretty interesting.  Charleston, it seems, will out deliver Everett by a margin of 6 airplanes (85 to 79).  Charleston will deliver 1 787-8, 50 787-9 and all 34 787-10 while Everett will deliver 9 787-8 and 70 787-9s.  The delivery mix will see 10 x 787-8 (same as last year), 120 787-9 (also same to last year), and 34 787-10 vs. 15 from last year.  The 787-10 is what is driving the the increase in deliveries this year with 19 more.

-->
LocationPlanned 2019 DeliveriesCharlestonPlanned 2019 DeliveriesEverettPlanned 2019 DeliveriesModelPlanned 2019 Deliveries
Charleston85787-81787-89787-810
Everett79787-950787-970787-9120
787-1034787-1034
Now unfortunately I do not have project delivery dates so I can't give a breakout of the monthly delivery profile.  It is clear that Charleston will be running at the same rate as Everett when the break in rate occurs.  

So in addition to new operators there is one new lessor that will be taking their first 787, this is Avolon and they will be leasing a 787-9 to LOT Polish Airlines.

Surprises

So the firing order for 2019 does reveal a couple of surprises.  Among them are:

1) Ethiopian is taking at least 2 787-9 on lease from CIT.  This might be part of the order for 6 787-9 they announced at Farnborough.

2) The Government of Tanzania is purchasing a 2nd 787-8.  I'm not sure if this is a VIP aircraft or one that will be placed in service with Air Tanzania but I'm guessing it's the latter. thus I'm listing as going to that airline. It has to be one of the 3 unidentified 787-8 that was booked last year.

3) Juneyao Airlines was supposed to take 2 787-9 in 2019 but the firing orders shows a third to be delivered this year thus they must behind the order for 2 787-9 with GE Engines placed on September 25, 2018.

The customer taking the largest delivery of 787s is Aercap (13) followed by ALC (12). Etihad is taking the largest number 787s as an operator (11).

-->
OperatorTotal Expected 787 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-10 Deliveries (2019)
Aeroméxico2020
Air Canada2020
Air China1010
Air Europa4040
Air France2020
Air New Zealand1010
Air Tahiti Nui3030
Air Tanzania1100
American Airlines2020
ANA5032
Avianca1010
Biman Bangladesh Airlines2200
China Eastern Airlines2020
China Southern Airlines7070
EgyptAir6060
El Al Airlines7250
Ethiopian Airlines2020
Etihad Airways11083
Eva Air6024
Gulf Air2020
Hainan Airlines9090
Hong Kong Airlines2020
Japan Airlines6330
Juneyao Airlines3030
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines4004
Korean Air1010
LAN2020
LOT Polish Airlines4040
Neos1010
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA5050
Oman Air1010
QANTAS3030
Qatar Airways6060
Royal Air Maroc3030
Saudi Arabian Airlines3003
Scoot Pte Ltd2020
Shanghai Airlines4040
Singapore Airlines7007
Suparna Airlines5050
Thomson2020
Turkish Airlines6060
United Airlines8008
Uzbekistan Airways2200
Vietnam Airlines3003
Westjet3030
Total1641012034
As mentioned earlier, Etihad is the operator taking the largest number of 787 but after that the distribution among the operators is fairly spread out.  Hainan will take the remaining 9 787-9 on their order of 30 this year and Air Canada will take the final 2 787-9 on its order of 29 in 2019. Other customers that are also taking ownership of their last 787s this year include Air Tahiti Nui (2), Air China (1) I think, Aviation Capital Group (1), Biman Bangladesh Airlines (2). El Al (2 x 787-8 and 1 x 787-9), Korean Air (1), Royal Air Maroc (3), and finally Scoot (2 x 787-9, 787-8 still has 2 outstanding). 

-->
CustomerTotal Expected 787 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-8 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-9 Deliveries (2019)Total Expected 787-10 Deliveries (2019)
AerCap130130
Air Canada2020
Air China1010
Air France2020
Air Tahiti Nui2020
ALC12084
American Airlines2020
ANA5032
Avianca1010
Aviation Capital Group1010
Avolon1010
Biman Bangladesh Airlines2200
BOC Aviation8080
China Eastern Airlines6060
China Southern Airlines4040
CIT Leasing3030
El Al Airlines3210
Ethiopian Airlines1010
Etihad Airways11083
Eva Air3003
GECAS4040
Government of Tanzania1100
Gulf Air2020
Hainan Airlines9090
Japan Airlines6330
Juneyao Airlines3030
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines4004
Korean Air1010
LAN2020
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA1010
QANTAS3030
Qatar Airways6060
Royal Air Maroc3030
Saudi Ministry of Finance3003
Scoot Pte Ltd2020
Singapore Airlines7007
Suparna Airlines3030
TUI Travel2020
Turkish Airlines6060
United Airlines8008
Uzbekistan Airways2200
Westjet3030
Total1641012034

It's important to note that this is just a projection and that it can change drastically because of unforeseen circumstances like the Trent-1000 issues.  

Moving on to new orders, well there isn't a whole lot that I can add.  Boeing has a backlog of 622 787s.  At 14/month this is enough production to last until September 2022. Boeing still has a number of MoU/LoIs that need to finalized as well as conversion of existing options and purchase rights but the key now is that they have to maintain a yearly order intake of 168 net airplanes in order to maintain the 14/month rate.

I believe that if they get fewer than 144 net orders per year for the next 2 years, Boeing will be forced to reduce the production rate to 12/month.

Good things are going to happen in the 787 program this year as long as Boeing and it partners Rolls Royce can execute and address any current issues.  Boeing's continued drive to reduce deferred production cost showed progress in 2018 and I expect more of the same through the rest of this year.

Lastly, with this post I've updated the spreadsheets to reflect production up to L/N 950 (yes getting very close to 1000 787s).  Please use the link below to see the latest production and delivery information.


-->

8 comments:

Tom Shek said...

Does Hong Kong Airlines have an order for 787s?

Uresh said...

They’re leasing them.

Emily said...

Uresh,

I have noticed in your re-tweets of Flightaware that a few AA 787's are moving from DFW to PAE. Is this for maintenance? Repairs? Something else?

Thanks!

johnv777 said...

Uresh, I am curious about the lone 787-8 to be assembled in Charleston. Your data shows the last -8 to deliver out of Charleston was for AA back in Feb, 2017, almost 2 years ago, Since then all have been built in Everett. Why would Boeing do this and potentially disrupt the rhythm of building just -9 and -10 frames in Charleston. Any insight?

Uresh said...

I'm not sure. It's probably for maintenance or one of the extensive checks mandated by the FAA.

Uresh said...

It all scheduled driven with regards to build location. I'm guessing that certain customers needed their aircraft by a certain date so Boeing has to schedule the build locations (except for the 787-10) in such a way that the customer takes delivery within a certain time frame. I don't think it's that unusual.

HK Expat said...

AA is installing premium economy on their planes @PAE. That's why you are seeing those flights.

Phil Garnatz said...

The "787 Monthly Delivery Tracking" tab needs a few edits for the new year.
cell K:3 needs label "2019" and
cell K:4 needs =P128