The break in rate to 14/month is supposed to occur sometime in the 1st quarter and many suppliers are already producing various components at the higher rate. The true test will when the first 787 at the higher rate is loaded either in Charleston or Everett but it is one thing to assemble the aircraft at 14/month and another matter when delivering the product at that rate.
I expect that Boeing will deliver around 164 787s this year. At 14/month Boeing can roll out 168 787s but since they're going to break rate at some unknown point this quarter I am not assuming that they will assemble and deliver 168 787s this year. I am assuming that Boeing will break rate by mid February and start delivering at 14/month around early April. Thus the delivery rate for the first quarter will be at 12/month. That is 36 deliveries. Thereafter I am assuming a delivery rate of 14/month which will be 126 deliveries for a total of 162 787 deliveries plus the two 787s that weren't delivered in 2018 (a 787-9 for Air China and a 787-10 for United Airlines).
In 2019 there are several customer who will be first time 787 operators:
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EgyptAir and Hong Kong Airlines will be taking their first 787s on lease as will Vietnam Airlines as they induct the 787-10 into their fleet. Qatar Airways will also taking delivery of their first 787-9 after taking delivery of 30 787-8s. Westjet is inducting the first of 10 787-9s and Turkish is also starting deliveries of the -9.
In terms of the breakout of the deliveries, this is pretty interesting. Charleston, it seems, will out deliver Everett by a margin of 6 airplanes (85 to 79). Charleston will deliver 1 787-8, 50 787-9 and all 34 787-10 while Everett will deliver 9 787-8 and 70 787-9s. The delivery mix will see 10 x 787-8 (same as last year), 120 787-9 (also same to last year), and 34 787-10 vs. 15 from last year. The 787-10 is what is driving the the increase in deliveries this year with 19 more.
Now unfortunately I do not have project delivery dates so I can't give a breakout of the monthly delivery profile. It is clear that Charleston will be running at the same rate as Everett when the break in rate occurs.
So in addition to new operators there is one new lessor that will be taking their first 787, this is Avolon and they will be leasing a 787-9 to LOT Polish Airlines.
Surprises
So the firing order for 2019 does reveal a couple of surprises. Among them are:
1) Ethiopian is taking at least 2 787-9 on lease from CIT. This might be part of the order for 6 787-9 they announced at Farnborough.
2) The Government of Tanzania is purchasing a 2nd 787-8. I'm not sure if this is a VIP aircraft or one that will be placed in service with Air Tanzania but I'm guessing it's the latter. thus I'm listing as going to that airline. It has to be one of the 3 unidentified 787-8 that was booked last year.
3) Juneyao Airlines was supposed to take 2 787-9 in 2019 but the firing orders shows a third to be delivered this year thus they must behind the order for 2 787-9 with GE Engines placed on September 25, 2018.
The customer taking the largest delivery of 787s is Aercap (13) followed by ALC (12). Etihad is taking the largest number 787s as an operator (11).
As mentioned earlier, Etihad is the operator taking the largest number of 787 but after that the distribution among the operators is fairly spread out. Hainan will take the remaining 9 787-9 on their order of 30 this year and Air Canada will take the final 2 787-9 on its order of 29 in 2019. Other customers that are also taking ownership of their last 787s this year include Air Tahiti Nui (2), Air China (1) I think, Aviation Capital Group (1), Biman Bangladesh Airlines (2). El Al (2 x 787-8 and 1 x 787-9), Korean Air (1), Royal Air Maroc (3), and finally Scoot (2 x 787-9, 787-8 still has 2 outstanding).
It's important to note that this is just a projection and that it can change drastically because of unforeseen circumstances like the Trent-1000 issues.
Moving on to new orders, well there isn't a whole lot that I can add. Boeing has a backlog of 622 787s. At 14/month this is enough production to last until September 2022. Boeing still has a number of MoU/LoIs that need to finalized as well as conversion of existing options and purchase rights but the key now is that they have to maintain a yearly order intake of 168 net airplanes in order to maintain the 14/month rate.
I believe that if they get fewer than 144 net orders per year for the next 2 years, Boeing will be forced to reduce the production rate to 12/month.
Good things are going to happen in the 787 program this year as long as Boeing and it partners Rolls Royce can execute and address any current issues. Boeing's continued drive to reduce deferred production cost showed progress in 2018 and I expect more of the same through the rest of this year.
Lastly, with this post I've updated the spreadsheets to reflect production up to L/N 950 (yes getting very close to 1000 787s). Please use the link below to see the latest production and delivery information.
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