Thursday, May 24, 2018

787 April 2018 Month End Review and May Mid Month Update



Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett100
To be assembled in Charleston78
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage1
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work3
Pre-Flight Prep13
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery6
Donation3
Delivered678
TOTAL902

Better late than never.  My apologies for getting my latest blog post out really late as I have been preoccupied with personal matters that required my attention.  Hopefully I'll be able to regularly update the blog going forward. On to the matter at hand.

April, 2018

787 deliveries were driven lower than expected due to the continuing Roll Royce Trent 1000 issues with turbine blade corrosion and compressor problems on the Package C Trents.  Currently, newly assembled Trent 1000 powered 787s are rolling out of the assembly halls with weights hanging off the engine pylons.  Through May 23rd, I have counted 7 Trent powered airframes sans their powerplants.  While the issues is expected to be an ongoing headache for both Boeing and  Rolls Royce there are a couple of silver linings.  1) it appears that the delay in hanging the engines off the newly assembled aircraft is about 1 month thus I expect that delays in the delivery of these aircraft should be on the order of 4 to 6 weeks depending on Boeing's ability to receive new Trent 1000s at a steady rate. 2) The number of Trent powered 787s to be delivered between now and early 2019 as a percentage of the total deliveries amounts to about 30% meaning of the 129 787s that I have listed on my spreadsheets for delivery to customers, 40 of these are powered by the Rolls Royce engines.  Thus in the near term, the on going reduction in supply of new Trent 1000 engines shouldn't impact deliveries greatly for the remainder of 2018.  This assumes that Rolls Royce doesn't find any more issues with the engines and that they can increase production for replacement engines as well as engines for new production aircraft.

As far as deliveries go, Boeing shipped out 8 787s including the second 787-10 for Singapore Airlines and Virgin Atlantic's last 787-9 on its order of 17 airplanes. Gulf Air's and China Southern's first 787-9 were also delivered during the past month.

Boeing maintained its 12/month production rate though given the low delivery rates, it means that the flightlines are getting more crowded at Everett and Charleston through the end of April.  Boeing delivered 8 787s in April (7 x 787-9 and 1 x 787-10).  For the year Boeing delivered 42 787s (40 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10).  Since program deliveries began big B has turned over 678 (350 x 787-8, 326 x 787-9, 2 x 787-10).

In terms of orders, Boeing booked American's huge 47 aircraft order (22 x 787-8 and 25 x 787-9).  Curiously the 787-8 were booked under Boeing Capital Corp. meaning that American may be leasing them from BCC.

At the end of April, Boeing announced that the 787 deferred production costs came down to $24.69bn during the 1Q2018 from $25.358bn in the previous quarter.  That's a reduction of $668 million which is a substantial amount of reduction for 1 quarter.

May, 2018

Thus far in May, Boeing has delivered 10 787s (1 x 787-8, 7 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10).  The one surprise was the 787-8 meant for Royal Jordanian went to Uzbekistan Airways. It appears that Royal Jordanian sold ZA698 (LN 652) to Uzbekistan Airways.  I expect that Boeing will deliver 2 more 787s by the end of the month.  Through May 21st, Boeing has rolled out 9 787s though I do expect a couple more to roll out by month's end.  Flight testing has been slower due to the continued issues surrounding the Trent 1000.

Orders

Boeing has been enjoying a good order year for the 787 and it appears they're piling on more orders (which I expect to be announced at Farnborough in about 6 weeks).  I do expect that United Airlines will sign on for another 50 787s to replace the 767-300 in their fleet.  The 787 was up against the A330NEO and from the reports I've read, the 787 has the inside track to win this order.  I also expect that Emirates will firm their order for 40 787s as well and perhaps Hawaiian will also firm up their order at this time.

In the meantime, follow the production and delivery story by viewing my spreadsheets.

787 Spreadsheets

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