Thursday, September 4, 2014

787 Report - August, 2014 Month End



With four months left in the year, Boeing is making a push to meet its 2014 787 delivery guidance.  Through the end of August, Boeing has delivered 69 787s in 2014.

Deliveries totaled 13 for August. but Boeing only rolled out only 8 787s to the flightlines in Everett and North Charleston.  That puts the 787 production efficiency at 0.62 (the 787 production efficiency is arrived at by dividing the number of 787s rolled out by the number of 787s delivered during the month).  Overall efficiency in 2014 is 1.27 which indicates that Boeing is rolling out more 787s in 2014 then they are delivering. Notable deliveries included the first 787-8 to Xiamen Airlines, Royal Jordanian and the last -8 to British Airways.

Boeing has delivered 183 787s through the end of August since deliveries began 3 years ago and it does look like they will break 200 deliveries in early October.  It is unknown who the lucky customer is that will take delivery of the 200th 787.

Production was slow in August as Boeing is starting the process of transitioning the 40-24 production over to 40-26.  However, sources have also told me that they are still dealing with some traveled work which is causing the completion of work either at the EMC or on the flightline.  With four months remaining, Boeing needs to deliver at least 10 787s a month if they are to meet their guidance of 110 deliveries in 2014. Internally Boeing hopes it can exceed that number and try to deliver about 120 787s including at least 2 early build 787s to customers this year.

In terms of production in September, it looks as if Boeing will start final assembly on 9 Dreamliners in this month.  These will include some of the last 787s that will be delivered in 2014.  The time it takes Everett to build, test and deliver a 787 is about 100 to 120 days.  It takes Charleston about 110 to 120 to do the same.  If this trends holds up then Boeing will be hard pressed to deliver 110 787s this year.  Clearly traveled work has to trend down and both assembly lines need to get more efficient if they are to hit the target.  Clearly taking 4 months to build and deliver a 787 is not going to cut it

Looking ahead to September deliveries, it appears that Boeing will try to finish the 3rd quarter with a bang similar to what they did in June.  That month they delivered 15 787s.  They could deliver anywhere from 13 to 15 787s depending on how flight testing progresses.  Deliveries in September should include the 1st 787-9 to Virgin Atlantic Airways and the first 787-8 delivered to Avianca.  I expect 3 787-9s to be delivered including one each to ANA and Air New Zealand.  Ethiopian should take delivery of its 10 787-8 from their direct order of 10 Dreamliners from Boeing.  This will not be Ethiopian's last 787 though as they will be taking several more on lease from AerCap.

While Boeing has been delivering aircraft at a very good pace there is still clouds that hang over the program.  Last month, there were two cancellations for the 787 totaling 9 aircraft.  It is widely believed that the first one is Lion Air (Batik Air) which had ordered 5 787s.  The second one is Transaero which announced that they had cancelled their order for 4 aircraft.

Boeing's Press Release on delivering United's 1st 787-9:
Delivery of UA's 1st 787-9. Photo Courtesy of the Boeing Co.

Boeing Delivers First North American 787-9 Dreamliner to United Airlines

787-9 joins 11 787-8s already in United's fleet

SEATTLE, Sept. 4, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE:BA) and United Airlines are celebrating the delivery of the airline's first 787-9 Dreamliner. United will become the first airline in North America to operate both the 787-8 and 787-9 variants of the Dreamliner family when the airline launches 787-9 service later this month. 
"We're proud that United has become the North America launch customer for both the 787-8 and 787-9, marking another important milestone in the successful history of Boeing and United working together," said Brad McMullen, vice president of North America Sales, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. 

Earlier this year, United announced it will fly the airplane on what will become the longest 787 route -- nonstop service between Los Angeles and Melbourne, Australia. 

The 787-9 complements and extends the 787 family. With the fuselage stretched by 20 feet (6 meters) over the 787-8, the 787-9 will fly up to 40 more passengers an additional 450 nautical miles (830 kilometers) with the same exceptional environmental performance – 20 percent less fuel use and 20 percent fewer emissions than similarly sized airplanes. The airplane leverages the visionary design of the 787-8, offering passenger-pleasing features such as large windows, large stow bins, modern LED lighting, higher humidity, a lower cabin altitude, cleaner air and a smoother ride.

United operates 11 787 Dreamliners with an additional 54 on order, including the 787-10.

787 Full Production Table

15 comments:

agincourt said...

97 788s in the air at the same time tonight. 9.13 p.m. PST

1coolguy1 said...

Uresh - It almost seems as though the hurdle to increased deliveries are the number of flights. Are they short on test pilots and their supporting engineers, etc?
With the ramp up of the 777 and 737 and the addition of the 787 now, they may just be beyond their ability to stay ahead of production.
What do you hear?

4330462c-e338-11e3-9abe-000bcdcb2996 said...

Why are they shuttering the 40-24 surge line and moving all production to the 40-26? If they are trying to make up for the delays and get these aircraft delivered, they should continue to use both lines for production as well as build a second line in Charleston to increase production as engineers are hired and trained. Since it has been stated that the -10 will be too long to fit into the Dreamlifter, maybe that second line could be dedicated to the production of the -10.

agincourt said...

Interesting to note that Charleston has got all but one of its built planes into the air. Everitt has many yet to get there

1coolguy1 said...

agincourt - you are right - that is very odd. It's as though the pilots and test crews in Everett have been pulled to other tasks. Some of these have been in Pre-flight Prep for quite an extended time.,
Uresh - any idea why this is?

agincourt said...

108 787s in the air tonight Thursday 2032 PDT

David Cummings said...

Some information regarding Virgin Atlantics fleets
G-VNEW (40956) later this month, followed by G-VAHH (37967) in October. Unfortunately, c/ns are only known to me for the first two, but names & expected deliveries for the first ten are as follows:

G-VNEW Birthday girl 09/14
G VAHH Dream girl 10/14 
G VOOH Miss chief 12/14
G VWHO Mystery girl 02/15
G VFAN Pin up girl 04/15
G VWOO Leading lady 06/15
G VBZZ Queen bee 07/15
G VSPY Miss Moneypenny 11/15
G VNYL Penny Lane 12/15
G VERY Miss Molly 01/16

If anyone can help both Uresh and myself with the MSN and or LN's it would be appreciated

Uresh said...

For Virgin this is the LN and Var Numbers:

LN256, ZB029 - G-VOOH
LN267, ZB030 - G-VWHO
LN296, ZB031 - G-VFAN
LN313, ZB032 - G-VWOO
LN338, ZB033 - G-VBZZ
LN370, ZB034 - G-VSPY

b767300er said...

Hi Uresh, thanks for your great website/blog.

TUI Travel PLC is the 787's to be delivered to the redistribution.
It seems to be that TUI Nordic no longer receive 787's and that these are redistributed to the other TUI companies.
Is it possible that you check it for me of the production list is still correct for the productionnumbers below?

Its about l/n:

L/N 300, ZA342, TUI Nordic?
L/N 291, ZA341, TUI Nordic?
L/N 281, ZA324, Thomson?
L/N 260, ZA323, Thomson?

Many thnks in advance!

Uresh said...

The production list is correct as far as I know

b767300er said...

Oke, then I have to wait and see!

Thanks!!

Niels-The Netherlands

b767300er said...

Oke, then I have to wait and see!

Thanks!!

Niels-The Netherlands

RubenF35 said...

Arke will probably take one of the Nordic slots. The Arke wikipedia page states that their third dreamliner is due april 2015.

b767300er said...

Intern Arke documents show that CN36429/LN281 will be PH-TFM for TUI Travel PLC Arke instead of G-TUIH for TUI Travel PLC Thomson

b767300er said...

Productionlist now updated. L/N 281 will now be PH-TFM of Arke iso G-TUIH for Thomson

L/N 291 and L/N 30 still show Nordic. lets wait and see.