Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Boeing achieves 2.8 book to bill on 787 in 2013, readjusts Everett assembly lines

During 2013 Boeing took in 182 787 order (the majority in 787-10) while delivering 65 of them.  This equates to a book to bill ratio (a measure of demand) of 2.8.  The higher the book to bill the higher the demand for that product.  It does remain unclear, however, if Boeing can maintain that kind of performance on the 787. In 2012 the book to bill was 1.09 (50 orders to 46 deliveries).  Undoubtedly the addition of the 787-10 helped tremendously as this airplane accounted for 132 of the 182 net orders Boeing took in.  Boeing needs to ride the 787-10 wave in 2014 and if the 787-9 meets its performance guarantees, it can spur a new flurry of orders for that airplane as well. Boeing will need to book at least 120 to 130 orders to maintain a healthy book to bill ratio in the coming years.  This may prove to be difficult as the A350 will be coming on line as well.

Boeing adds 5th position on assembly lines.

Boeing production machine is getting revved up for the 2014 production year.  While producing at 10/month will help drive some cost reductions that they desperately need, Boeing is only re-working the 787 assembly lines.  In Everett they have inserted a 5th position into the main production line in 40-26 as well as the surge line in 40-24.  Sources say that this position (which is the new position 1) is to allow wing integration work prior to the main wing-body join.  This is suppose to say time integrating wing components after the main join.  Thus the spreadsheets will show a 5th position for Everett.  It does appear that Charleston is already using the same plan as they are also using 5 (out of 8) positions for final assembly of the 787s. 

Boeing does look like it will start assembling 11 787s this month but I expect them to be at 10 next month with 2 from Charleston and 8 from Everett.  In terms of deliveries in January I can see Boeing delivering about 8 aircraft.  Here's my breakdown this month:

Air India - 2
ANA - 3
BBJ - 1
ILFC - 1
Qatar - 1

I was expecting Qatar deliveries to be greater but they have been very particular about the condition of the 787s at delivery and thus these aircraft have been parked at Charleston for a vey long time.  Boeing has switched production of the Qatar 787s to Charleston but with the pickiness exhibited by this customer, Boeing may switch it back to Everett.

Lastly, let me leave you with the Tweet of the Day:

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators



william said...

Hey Uresh just for you info that line 129 Za469 flew to Portland yesterday for some unknown reason. Maybe to the paint shop??

Uresh said...

Only for paint...the only reason Boeing would fly airplanes to Portland.

william said...

That's what I thought that that's also the Qatar's frame that sat in Fort Worth for 1-1.5 months last year.

larmeyers said...

Hi Uresh, saw that the early build storage/EMC aircraft - with exception of Transaero - have reverted to original buyers. What happened? Will they try to be moved to other airlines? thanks!

Uresh said...

Those are the customers that Boeing still has assigned those airframes to so until they change it I'll keep the original customers on those frames too.

Pete Templin said...

Boeing had a book to bill of 2.8, which would equate to 1.08 at the target build rate of 14/month. Over the long haul, Boeing won't be able to sustain a book to bill >1.0 unless it's taking orders with a very long lead time. Anything over 1.0 means the backlog is growing, and I'm sure there's an asymptotic limit on their sales success if the lead time gets too long.

Andrew Munsell said...

Here is an article I found on flightaware about the -9 and testing. It shows some pictures of the test equipment.