787 still faces uphill production issues as flight testing winds down

UPDATE (8/2/2011): ZA233 is now expected to have its B-1 test flight today. The sensor in question was not connected propoerly and the issue has now been rectified. It should be flown to Lackland AFB in San Antonio Texas in about a week or so.

Boeing's 787 program is currently winding up the flight testing and certification program for the 787 as ZA102 has flown more than 2/3 of the needed 300 flight test hours for the F&R/ETOPs flight testing campaign. This aircraft just returned from more than two weeks for flight testing around the western Pacific flying out of Guam. According to the latest stats, ZA102 has completed about 218 hours which puts it on track to complete the final phase of 787 testing in about 11 to 12 days (assuming 7 flight hours per day). Given that Boeing would wait about 30 days for final type certification from the FAA, this would give Boeing the opportunity to finally start deliveries to ANA around mid September. Indeed ANA has announced that the 787 will fly charter service between Narita and Hong Kong starting in October, one month after receiving it's first 787. However, questions are arising as to the timing of future deliveries to ANA and other customers after the first delivery.

As Boeing prepares for the delivery of ZA101 it is currently in the midst of another 787 assembly stoppage in 40-26 as issues with the assembly completion of the rear fuselage sections is forcing Boeing to institute this halt. It appears that Boeing will have these start and stop production hiccups on the 787 final assembly line for the foreseeable future and this is going to complicate Boeing's attempts to ramp up to 10/month by the end of 2013. They're were planning to be at a 2.5 production rate during this summer but now they're saying that the 787 line in Everett will be at 2.5 sometime in 2011. My opinion is that Boeing will not reach 10/month until sometime in mid/ late 2014. The ongoing change incorporation program along with supplier challenges will continue to weigh down the 787 production rate in the near term.

Even so Boeing is still experiencing issues in getting the 30 787s that they have assembled ready for customers. With Boeing trying to correct many of the supplier defects in parts as well as incorporate the changes mandated by the FAA as a result of test flying, Boeing is still having trouble getting planes ready for delivery. Re-work is simply taking way too much time due to the amount of work that has to be done on each airplane though later airplanes need less time in re-work. We have to all stay tuned for development regarding this issue in the 787 program. Boeing has reduced its guidance ithat they will deliver this year (from upwards of 40 to now upwards of 30). It is understoood that the number of 787s will comprise the majority if not all of the reduction guidance.

Lastly, ZA233, a 787 for Air India made it first flight today (July 31, 2011) but unfortunately lasted only 15 minutes as the aircraft an inflight anomoly which they said is a failed sensor. Boeing is currently checking all these sensors in the assembled aircraft. This airplane is scheduled to make the trip to San Antonio for change incorporation and re-work and then be delivered to Air India by the end of the this year. This issue is not expected to cause any delays.

Flightblogger: 787 production line halt for 1 month

Flightblogger revealed today that Boeing has halted any further shipments of 787 parts into Everett in order to allow the supply chain to catch up with shortages of parts as well as to address engineering changes.

According to the post this is the first work stoppage this year for the 787 line and started in early July. The stoppage will last until the first week on August though manufacturing work will continue on the airplanes that are currently on the line as well as those that are under going change incorporation.

Some corrections to my earlier post via Flightblogger's post: LN 46 which is the first 787 to be built in Charleston should start final assembly later this month perhaps as early as late this week and that aircraft will go to Air India.

Lastly, Flightblogger is also reporting that Boeing is planning to update the 787 delivery guidance during it's 2nd quarter results conference call scheduled for July 27th. Boeing is maintaining its plans to deliver 12 - 20 787s by the end of this year as well as to increase production from 2 to 2.5 787 per month this summer and to be pushing out 10 787s per month by the end of 2013. There should be more clarity on July 27th as to those plans.

Boeing is still preparing to deliver ANA's first 787 during the 3rd quarter (August/September) but what is unknown is the pace of follow on deliveries which appear to be sliding to the right. Air India was supposed to be receiving its first 787 around November and now it is understood to be scheduled for December. Similarly, Flightblogger said that Ethiopian was supposed to receive its first 787 in December 2011 and is now expected to receive it in March 2012.

These slides are probably a result of the extensive amount of re-work and change incorporation that each aircraft has to have done before they are delivered as well as feeding these changes back into the supply chain.

Read Flightblogger's post:

Flightblogger: Boeing holding 787 line for a month, to update 2011 delivery guidance

787/747 Update

Boeing continues to make steady progress towards the 787's delivery target schedule for sometime next month or the month after. ZA102 (LN9) has already flow about 86.25 hours of the approximately 300 hours needed to to complete F&R/ETOPs testing as of July 10th. Currently the airplane is in Hawaii for tests and will be returning to Paine Field today.

ZA002 has just completed SROV testing in Japan with final testing between Tokyo and Nagoya. From all indications, the testing went very well and the production aircraft will be service ready when they start reaching customers. Here's a recap of ZA002 schedule from the past week in Japan:

Flight 1 LV. SEA 7-3-11 5AM ARR. HND 7-4-11 6:30AM
Flight 2 LV. HND 7-5-11 6:30AM ARR. ITM 7-5-11 7:30AM
Flight 3 LV. ITM 7-5-11 11:30AM ARR. HND 7-5-11 12:30AM
Flight 4 LV. HND 7-6-11 6:30AM ARR. KIX 7-6-11 8:00AM
Flight 5 LV. KIX 7-6-11 12:00PM ARR. HND 7-6-11 1:30PM
Flight 6 LV. HND 7-7-11 6:00AM ARR. OKJ 7-7-11 7:30AM
Flight 7 LV. OKJ 7-7-11 11:00AM ARR. HND 7-7-11 12:30PM
Flight 8 LV. HND 7-7-11 3:00PM ARR. HIJ 7-7-11 5:00PM
Flight 9 LV. HIJ 7-7-11 7:00PM ARR. HND 7-7-22 8:30PM
Flight 10 LV. HND 7-10-11 6:25AM ARR. NGO 7-10-11 7:30AM
Flight 11 LV. NGO 7-10-11 6:00PM ARR. HND 7-10-11 6:45PM

When ANA starts revenue service with the 787, the destination will either be Okayama or Hiroshima from its base at Haneda International Airport in Tokyo.

Next stop for ZA002 is India where it will fly be shown to customers Air India and Jet Airways. Air India is expecting it's first 787 in December of this year while Jet Airways will receive its first airplane sometime in 2014. ZA002 will fly from Haneda in Tokyo to Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi and then on to Mumbai. From there it is not known if ZA002 will fly back to Seattle or will fly on to other destination for other visits with customer airlines.

The 787 test fleet continues to fly occasional Boeing test flights with ZA001, ZA003 and ZA005 taking flights over the past week or so.

Production continues at Everett at a rate of two 787s per month. Boeing will starting final assembly on ZA261 (LN44) for Ethiopian Airlines on July 20th but more importantly, the first 787 to be assembled in North Charleston, SC will start final assembly on August 17th. That airplane ZA286 (LN46) for United Airlines already has its wings delivered to the final assembly hall and will be waiting for the forward fuselage from Wichita as well as the center and rear section just next door to the final assembly hall. the horizontal tail plane form Grottaglie, Italy as well as the numerous other parts (tail fin from from Washington State and landing gear) are expected to be delivered soon. Boeing is expected to increase production from 2/month to 2.5/month though it is still unclear when this increase is supposed to happen. The current schedule doesn't show assembly start dates past airplane number 46 which indicates that Boeing is currently reviewing plans for future assembly start dates and thus reviewing the ramp up to the 2.5 rate.

Meanwhile Boeing has added a third 747-8I to the flight test program. The aircraft, RC003/N5020K will be used to perform high intensity radio frequency tests. It is in Southern California currently. The 747-8F F&R testing has continued but RC523 has not carried out any test flights recently. Boeing is very close to finishing off the 747-8F test program and anticipates delivering the first 747-8F to Cargolux this summer.

Boeing starts 787/Trent 1000 F&R and ETOPs Testing

Boeing announced the start of F&R/ETOPs testing today. The sole aircraft that is conducting the tests, ZA102, kicked the testing off yesterday with a seven hour and thirty minute flight along the west coast of the US. This airplane will be conducting all the F&R and ETOPs testing with the Trent 1000 engine.

This phase should last about 300 flight test hours after which Boeing should receive type certification and can proceed with deliveries to ANA around August or September. Given the amount of testing and allowing for maintenance, I anticipate that this final phase of testing should last about 45 days which means a mid August completion for the final phase of testing.

Boeing will still have to submit any remaining deliverables to the FAA and EASA and they would take at least a couple of weeks to issue the final type certification for the 787. Therefore, it is looking like an early to mid September delivery time frame for the 787 to ANA.

F&R is testing that measures the production aircraft's response to normal as well off-normal operations which would include simulated engine and systems failures. This testing is only to certify the Trent-1000/787 engine airframe combination.

Boeing is still in discussions with the FAA regarding F&R/ETOPs testing for the GEnx version. Until those discussions are completed it is unknown which aircraft(s) with the GEnx-1B engines will be used for those tests. It is anticipated that GE F&R/ETOPs should start around August. Given this time frame the GEnx powered 787 should be delivered to Japan Airlines around October.

Meanwhile Boeing is still using the other airplanes for testing purposes. ZA001 just returned from Europe and the Paris Air Show and will be spending a week at Boeing Charleston as workers prepare to load the first 787 into the tooling fixtures at that plant. ZA002 will be making the trip to Japan for service ready validation operational validation. That airplane will be there for about a week conducting those tests. ZA003 is conducting Boeing test flights to evaluate the hybrid laminar flow control system proposed for the 787-9. ZA004 is conducting nautical air miles tests (NAMS) using the package "B" Trent 1000 engines. This testing will be used to evaluate the improved fuel efficiency over the package "A" Trents. ZA005 and ZA006 will continue certification flight tests with the GEnx-1Bs.

Here's Boeing Press Release on the start of F&R/ETOPs:

Boeing Begins Final Phase of 787 Flight Testing

EVERETT, Wash., June 27, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) yesterday started Function & Reliability (F&R) testing and extended operations (ETOPS) demonstrations on the 787 Dreamliner. This is the final phase of flight testing prior to certification of the airplane.

"We are ready for this final phase of flight testing," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "The team has created a solid plan for accomplishing the hours and test points required for F&R and ETOPS testing in support of delivery to our customer ANA in the August to September time period."

F&R testing simulates various normal and non-normal operations for the airplane, in a realistic airline-like flight environment. ETOPS refers to extended operations – for twin jets, flights that are more than 60 minutes away from a suitable landing field. During ETOPS demonstrations the company validates the airplane's ability to safely divert for a variety of reasons, including long diversions with one engine shut down.

In addition to F&R and ETOPS testing for the 787 with Rolls-Royce engines, Boeing continues certification testing on 787s with General Electric engines and will conduct a separate F&R/ETOPS test program for that version of the airplane. Other activities will continue on the flight test fleet to support Boeing objectives including examining potential technologies for the 787-9 and testing engine improvement packages.

Paris Air Show, 2011, Final Order Summary

Paris 2011
Order Tracker

Airbus
30 x A320neo – SAS
60 x A320neo – GECAS
4 x A330-300 – Saudi Arabian Airlines
20 x A320neo – Air Lease Corp.
16 x A321neo – Air Lease Corp.
11 A330 – Air Lease Corp.
1 x A321 – Air Lease Corp.
6 x A321neo – TransAsia Airways
50 x A320neo – CIT
40 x A320neo – JetBlue
10 x A320neo – Garuda Indonesia
15 x A320 – Garuda Indonesia
150 x A320neo – Indigo
30 x A320 – Indigo
20 x A320neo – LAN Airlines
40 x A320neo – Republic Airways
40 x A319neo – Republic Airways
6 x A350-900 – ALAFCO
18 x A320 - Avianca/Taca
33 x A320neo – Avianca/Taca
30 x A320neo – ALAFCO
72 x A320neo – GoAir
2 x A380 – Skymark
200 x A320neo – Air Asia
10 x A380 – Hong Kong Airlines

Total Airbus – 914

Breakdown:
A319neo – 40
A320 – 63
A320neo – 755
A321neo - 22
A321 - 1
A330 – 15
A350 – 6
A380 – 12

Boeing
6 x 777-300ER – Qatar Airways
15 x 747-8I – Hong Kong Airlines
2 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
20 x 737-800 – Air Lease Corp.
4 x 787-9 – Air Lease Corp.
5 x 777-300ER – Air Lease Corp.
2 x 737-800 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
1 x 767-300 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
15 x 737-800 - Norwegian Air Shuttle
8 x 777-300ER – Aeroflot
10 x 737-800 – Malaysia Airlines
2 x 747-8F – GECAS
8 x 777-300ER – GECAS
33 x 737-800 – UTair
7 x 737-900ER - UTair

Total Boeing – 138

Breakdown:
737 – 87
787 – 4
777 – 27
767 - 1
747 – 19

Bombardier
10 x CS100 – Undisclosed Customer
10 x CS300 – Korean Air
10 x CS100 – Unidentified Customer

Total Bombardier - 30

ATR
15 x ATR 72-600 – GECAS
10 x ATR 72-600 – Azul
3 x ATR 42-500 - TAME

Total ATR - 28

Embraer
20 x E190 – Sriwijaya Air
2 x E190 – Air Astana
5 x E190 – Air Lease Corp.
10 x E190 – Kenya Airways
2 x E190 – GECAS

Total Embraer - 39

SuperJet
12 x SSJ100 – PT Sky Aviation
8 x SSJ100 – Blue Panorama
Total SuperJet - 20

Paris Air Show 2011, Day 3 Order Summary

Paris 2011
Order Tracker

Airbus
30 x A320neo – SAS
60 x A320neo – GECAS
4 x A330-300 – Saudi Arabian Airlines
20 x A320neo – Air Lease Corp.
16 x A321neo – Air Lease Corp.
11 A330 – Air Lease Corp.
1 x A321 – Air Lease Corp.
6 x A321neo – TransAsia Airways
50 x A320neo – CIT
40 x A320neo – JetBlue
10 x A320neo – Garuda Indonesia
15 x A320 – Garuda Indonesia
150 x A320neo – Indigo
30 x A320 – Indigo
20 x A320neo – LAN Airlines
40 x A320neo – Republic Airways
40 x A319neo – Republic Airways
6 x A350-900 – ALAFCO
18 x A320 - Avianca/Taca
33 x A320neo – Avianca/Taca
30 x A320neo – ALAFCO

Total Airbus – 630

Breakdown:
A319neo – 40
A320 – 63
A320neo – 483
A321neo - 22
A321 - 1
A330 – 15
A350 – 6

Boeing
6 x 777-300ER – Qatar Airways
15 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
2 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
20 x 737-800 – Air Lease Corp.
4 x 787-9 – Air Lease Corp.
5 x 777-300ER – Air Lease Corp.
2 x 737-800 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
1 x 767-300 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
15 x 737-800 - Norwegian Air Shuttle
8 x 777-300ER – Aeroflot
10 x 737-800 – Malaysia Airlines
2 x 747-8F – GECAS
8 x 777-300ER – GECAS
33 x 737-800 – UTair
7 x 737-900ER - UTair

Total Boeing – 138

Breakdown:
737 – 87
787 – 4
777 – 27
767 - 1
747 – 19

Bombardier
10 x CS100 – Undisclosed Customer
10 x CS300 – Korean Air

Total Bombardier - 20

ATR
15 x ATR 72-600 – GECAS
10 x ATR 72-600 – Azul
3 x ATR 42-500 - TAME

Total ATR - 28

Embraer
20 x E190 – Sriwijaya Air
2 x E190 – Air Astana
5 x E190 – Air Lease Corp.
10 x E190 – Kenya Airways
2 x E190 – GECAS

Total Embraer - 39

SuperJet
12 x SSJ100 – PT Sky Aviation
8 x SSJ100 – Blue Panorama

Total SuperJet - 20

Paris Air Show 2011, Day 2 Order Summary

Paris 2011
Order Tracker

Airbus
30 x A320neo – SAS
60 x A320neo – GECAS
4 x A330-300 – Saudi Arabian Airlines
20 x A320neo – Air Lease Corp.
16 x A321neo – Air Lease Corp.
11 A330 – Air Lease Corp.
1 x A321 – Air Lease Corp.
6 x A321neo – TransAsia Airways
50 x A320neo – CIT
40 x A320neo – JetBlue
10 x A320neo – Garuda Indonesia
15 x A320 – Garuda Indonesia



Total Airbus – 263



Breakdown:
A320 – 15
A320neo – 210
A321neo - 22
A321 - 1
A330 – 15

Boeing
6 x 777-300ER – Qatar Airways
15 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
2 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
20 x 737-800 – Air Lease Corp.
4 x 787-9 – Air Lease Corp.
5 x 777-300ER – Air Lease Corp.
2 x 737-800 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
1 x 767-300 – MIAT Mongolian Airlines
15 x 737-800 - Norwegian Air Shuttle
8 x 777-300ER – Aeroflot
10 x 737-800 – Malaysia Airlines
2 x 747-8F – GECAS
8 x 777-300ER – GECAS



Total Boeing – 98



Breakdown:
737 – 47
787 – 4
777 – 27
767 - 1
747 – 19

Bombardier
10 x CS100 – Undisclosed Customer
10 x CS300 – Korean Air
Total Bombardier - 20

ATR
15 x ATR 72-600 – GECAS
10 x ATR 72-600 – Azul
Total ATR - 25

Embraer
20 x E190 – Sriwijaya Air
2 x E190 – Air Astana

SuperJet
12 x SSJ100 – PT Sky Aviation

Paris Air Show 2011, Day 1 Order Summary

Here's a summary of today's commercial aircraft order action from Le Bourget. The biggest surprise was the 17 orders that Boeing received from two unidentified customers for the 747-8I. I'll update this throughout the week of the air show. If I'm missing anything let me know!


Paris 2011 Order Tracker

Airbus
30 x A320neo – SAS
60 x A320neo – GECAS
4 x A330-300 – Saudi Arabian Airlines
20 x A320neo – Air Lease Corp.
16 x A321neo – Air Lease Corp.
11 A330 – Air Lease Corp.
1 x A321 – Air Lease Corp.

Total Airbus – 142

Breakdown:
A320neo – 110
A321neo - 16
A321 - 1
A330 – 15

Boeing
6 x 777-300ER – Qatar Airways
15 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
2 x 747-8I – Undisclosed Customer
20 x 737-800 – Air Lease Corp.
4 x 787-9 – Air Lease Corp.
5 x 777-300ER – Air Lease Corp.

Total Boeing – 52

Breakdown:
737 – 20
787 – 4
777 – 11
747 – 17

Bombardier
10 x CS100 – Undisclosed Customer

ATR
15 x ATR 72-600 – GECAS

Embraer
20 x E190 – Sriwijaya Air
2 x E190 – Air Astana

787 test flight fleet done

On the eve of the Paris Air Show, James Albaugh. President of Boeing Commercial aircraft, revealed that Boeing is done with 97% of the required testing on the Trent 1000 powered and that the Boeing test flight fleet ZA001- ZA006 would not be flying for certification purposes. Boeing still has to complete SROV activities in Japan early next month as well as start ETOPs/F&R testing using ZA102 (LN9) for the Trent-1000 engines.

It is unclear which GEnx powered 787 will be used to conduct the ETOPS/F&R testing for the GEnx version of the 787 though ZA177 a GE powered 787 is still in change incorporation and maybe a possible candidate to conduct those tests around August or September depending on the progress of its change incorporation. If not then the only option is for ZA005 or ZA006 to conduct those tests.

ZA102 was supposed to start F&R testing in early June but as of today it still has no started and now Boeing is saying late June for the start of testing. I have no word from sources as to the actual start date thus far.

Even though Boeing's 787 test flight fleet certification duties are over, their flight testing duties are on going with ZA004 undertaking NAMS (nautical air mile) testing with the package "B" Trent 1000 engines. ZA003 is testing the hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) which, it is hoped, will reduce drag by delaying the transition of laminar air flow over the horizontal tail plane to turbulent air flow. If these tests are successful, then it is planned to introduce this system on the HTP for the 787-9 and possibly to the 787-8 as well. ZA001 will fly to Paris for the air show then on to Warsaw and Berlin for marketing related activities with Air Berlin and LOT. As mentioned earlier, ZA002 will be dispatched Japan for Service Ready Operational Validation Testing.

Below is the schedule for the SROV tests with ANA in Japan:

Flight 1 LV. SEA 7-3-11 5AM ARR. HND 7-4-11 6:30AM
Flight 2 LV. HND 7-5-11 6:30AM ARR. ITM 7-5-11 7:30AM
Flight 3 LV. ITM 7-5-11 11:30AM ARR. HND 7-5-11 12:30AM
Flight 4 LV. HND 7-6-11 6:30AM ARR. KIX 7-6-11 8:00AM
Flight 5 LV. KIX 7-6-11 12:00PM ARR. HND 7-6-11 1:30PM
Flight 6 LV. HND 7-7-11 6:00AM ARR. OKJ 7-7-11 7:30AM
Flight 7 LV. OKJ 7-7-11 11:00AM ARR. HND 7-7-11 12:30PM
Flight 8 LV. HND 7-7-11 3:00PM ARR. HIJ 7-7-11 5:00PM
Flight 9 LV. HIJ 7-7-11 7:00PM ARR. HND 7-7-22 8:30PM
Flight 10 LV. HND 7-9-11 1:00PM ARR. SEA 7-9-11 6:30AM

787 and 747-8: Coming to the finish line; delivery set for Aug./Sept. for 787

Boeing has for all intent and purposes declared that the finish line is insight for the 787-8 and 747-8F airplane flight tests and are preparing the gaggle of airplanes sitting at Everett Field for delivery to customers. These announcements came at Boeing Investor's Conference held on May 24th. Boeing program manager's also made revelations regarding the 787-8 and its future variants both in terms of new product development as well as production.

Flight Testing

787

Boeing confirmed that F&R and ETOPS testing will start in early June. Earlier I had reported a June 9th start date and that date looks to be solid. Functionality and reliability testing will test the aircraft as if it is in a commercial airline environment with simulating failures and other problems to see how the 787 will handle it. The test airplanes will be used but critical to this testing will be the use of ZA102, the ninth 787 built and recently re-worked to full production standard with all the necessary change incorporation modifications that were needed. This is the standard that all production 787 in which all will be delivered. So far the Rolls Royce powered 787s have completed 96% of required testing and the GEnx powered 787s are done with 75% of testing.

The FAA must issue an amended type inspection authorization (TIA) before Boeing can start F&R and ETOPs testing but that should happen soon. Thus far, of the 4,200 deliverables that needs to be completed for type certification of the Rolls powered 787, less than 150 remain to be done and of those less than 40 need to be submitted to the FAA directly. ETOPs certification will be accomplished on test points that need to be run and not the number of flight hours. Those test points will be run during the 300 hours needed for F&R testing thus both tasks will be tested concurrently.

As this required testing draws to a close, Boeing will send ZA002 during the week of July 4th to Japan for service ready validation operations (SRVO) where the airplane will be inducted into ANA's operations. This testing is to ensure that the 787 is ready for life as a passenger carrier and not a test airplane. ANA and Boeing will conduct fit checks with maintenance stands and jacks within the hangar, ground servicing operations, refueling and maintenance activities, as well as simulate operations between initial city pairs that ANA will fly the airplane on like Tokyo, Osaka, and Hiroshima. Read Boeing's statement:

Boeing and ANA to Conduct 787 Service Readiness Validation in Japan

-The first time the 787 will fly to Asia and Japan

TOKYO, May 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] and ANA today announced how the two companies will work together to help prove the 787 Dreamliner's readiness to enter service on a commercial basis. Using the second flight test aircraft, known as ZA002, they will simulate in-service operations across several airports in Japan in a service ready operational validation. The validation is expected to take place the week of July 4. Anticipated city pairs include trips between Haneda Airport in Tokyo and airports in Osaka (Itami and Kansai), Okayama and Hiroshima.
This will be the 787's maiden appearance in Japan. ANA is the launch customer for the aircraft and has 55 Dreamliners on order. The 787, which will be deployed across the ANA route network, is an integral part of ANA's strategy to strengthen its position and support its growth and expansion plans.

"ANA is eager to introduce the innovative 787 Dreamliner to Japan," said Shinichiro Ito, ANA president and chief executive officer. "Giving our employees the opportunity to gain experience with the airplane will help ensure a smoother entry into service later this year."

"We've put the airplane through its paces in a rigorous flight test program," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "Now, as we get closer to first delivery, we'll prove out its capabilities and reliability in a revenue-like environment."

ANA's maintenance crews also will practice maintenance and servicing of the 787 during the validation. This will include typical ground servicing activities, fit checks of airplane jacks and maintenance hangar stands, towing and refueling the airplane, and other routine maintenance operations. Watch this video to see how Boeing and ANA are planning for the validation.

Similar service ready validations have been conducted with great success on previous Boeing programs, including the 777, 737NG and 757-300.

Boeing plans to deliver the first 787 to ANA in the August to September timeframe.

After SRVO is completed along with ETOPs and F&R , Boeing will submit PSOC (program statement of compliance) which will allows the FAA to rule on type certification for the 787 and allow Boeing to deliver in August/September. My gut feeling is we can see first delivery around mid to late August after ETOPs and F&R testing is completed in mid to late July.

There was no word on testing for the GEnx powered 787 though Boeing is completed with 75% of testing. Boeing still has to announce when F&R and and ETOPs testing will start on ZA005 and ZA006 but I anticipate that Boeing will have to have on production GEnx powered 787 ready to support that testing. It could be ZA177 which is the 23rd 787 built and destined for Japan Airlines. It is currently undergoing rework and change incorporation at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. Still I would not completely rule out a production plane straight off the assembly line especially if it require very little work to get it ready for flight. Considering that carriers such as JAL, Air India and China Southern have ordered the GEnx-1B, Boeig will be under pressure
to finish up certification activities for the GEnx powered model. I wouldn't expect first delivery to JAL until October at the earliest. GE has received more orders for it's GEnx-1B engines to power the 787 than Rolls Royce has for the Trent 1000 engines.

747

Like the 787, the 747-8F is also nearing the end of its certification tests. It still has to conduct F&R testing and the the start of this testing is dependent on the FAA signing off on part of the Honeywell design flight management software and its readiness to conduct F&R testing. Still according to Guy Norris Boeing expects the start F&R testing around the end of May. To signify how far 747 testing has come, Boeing has sent one 747 test airplanes to Lackland AFB to undergo change incorporation and preparations for delivery. RC503 has been at Lackland AFB since May 13th for the required rework. Flight testing on the 747-8I continues and is currently well over 200 flight test hours between the two flight test aircraft. Boeing has said that the flight test program for the 747-8I will be about 600 flight test hour thus this program is already more than one third of the way through the flight testing hours that is needed.

Production

Boeing also addressed production rates at the conference. Currently, production of the 787 is at two per month. Interestingly, James Bell, Boeing CFO said that Boeing would have built 40 production standard 787s by the time the first one is delivered to ANA. Given that Boeing has just started work on the 35th production standard 787 and at the current pace of 2 per month, Boeing should be at number 40 around August. Boeing is being extremely cautious when it comes to increasing production rates, especially on the 787. They have stated that until they know that they can handle the next production increase without travelled work the rate won't increase. That said they are saying that the 787 production increase to 2.5 per month is expected to start later this summer (August/September in my opinion). Additionally Boeing North Charleston will come one line in July with the first 787 for United Airlines to be loaded in the tooling jig. With all the problems that Boeing has had with the production system, Boeing has indicated t hat they are prepared to move production of the horizontal stabilizer for the 787-9 from Alenia and back in house within Boeing at Seattle. This was in many way not unexpected given Alenia's performance on the HTP for the 787-8. However, Boeing may need to negotiate the move of that work from Italy to Seattle with Alenia as it is Alenia that owns the design though it is unclear if the current agreement between the two firms extended to the 787-9. This tale (pun intended) is not over.

Future 787 Variants

Boeing has always left the option of building variants of the 787 including the larger 787-10 (now known as the 787-10X). During the conference Boeing, while not outright launching the 787-10X has given strong indications that they intend to do so. They plan on a stretch of about 6m which would accommodate an additional 43 passengers over the 787-9 which can carry 290 passengers. This would squarely put it in competition with the A350-900 and can possibly be seen as a replacement for the 777-200 and possibly the 777-200ER. The expected range is going to be less than that of the 787-9 due to keeping the same wing as the -9 variant. James Albaugh, head of BCA said of the -10X, "I believe this will be an airplane we will probably do."

Boeing to start 787 ETOPs testing June 9th.

According to sources, Boeing's latest schedule, thus far, has the 787 program starting F&R and ETOPs flight testing on June 9th. This information comes on the heels of ZA102 restarting flight tests after several months going through re-work and change incorporation at ATS Hangar 3 in Everett.

This aircraft flew a 50 minute check flight and landed back at Everett. No word yet on first delivery date but it is anticipated that ETOPs and F & R testing should take about a month followed by type certification for the Rolls Royce powered 787. Currently Boeing is 95% through the certification program for the Trent 1000 powered aircraft and 75% complete on the GEnx-1B powered version of the 787. Delivery of the first GE powered 787 to Japan Airlines is expected about a month or so after delivery of the first 787 to ANA.

787 North Charleston Factory becoming a hot button political issue

Wow, who'd ever thought that the 787 and the where it is built would be a hot button topic between the national political parties but there you have it. Republicans want President Obama to weigh in on the decision by the NLRB to pursue action against Boeing for locating a 2nd 787 production facility in a right to work state, South Carolina.

AS many of you all know, Boeing decided to place a 2nd assembly line for the 787 in Charleston. IAM 751 which represents Boeing machinists in Washington were incensed by the decision and filed a complaint with the NLRB alleging that the decision was "payback" for four strikes, the last of which was very damaging to Boeing.

The issue, for many, is can the Union (through litigation) force a company to alter or make business decisions that it disagrees with. Not surprisingly this has many people up in arms and can be the NLRB says it's an illegal transfer of work. The problem with that argument that Boeing didn't transfer work from Everett to North Charleston. The Boeing workers in Everett didn't lose their jobs with the decision to open a 2nd line in North Charleston nor are they going to...not with a backlog of over 850 787s to be delivered. Everett will be building 7 787 per month and North Charleston 3 per month when the full currently planned production rate is realized. Thus the NLRB case maybe on shaky ground in my opinion. What does seem certain is that this will be another wedge between Boeing and IAM 751 which will do neither side any good in 2012.

In the end I agree with what Flightblogger had said...Boeing will probably agree to make the 787 surge line in building 40-24, a temporary assembly line that allowed production to be increased as North Charleston came online, to be permanent. Boeing may need to increase production anyway to get back on schedule after the three years of delays in any case. Boeing will still have North Charleston opening up in the next few weeks and it will still give them redundancy in case there is a strike in Everett.

Back to the Republicans asking Obama to weigh in on the NLRB complaint against Boeing. This also puts the President on shaky ground and he doesn't want to appear anti-business (a charge that has been frequently hurled at him) but he does need the support of the unions going into 2012. It'll be interesting to see if the White House responds but I'm willing to bet that he won't take the bait and will remain on the sidelines on this one.

CNN: Top Republicans demand Obama weigh in on Boeing dispute

Trent 1000 engines get ETOPS 330 approval from FAA

Today the FAA gave Rolls Royce its seal of approval for ETOPS 330 (meaning the engine can operate on flights that are 330 minutes from the nearest airport). This is an important milestone but one that should not be confused with the ETOPS approval needed for the airframe (787) and engine (Trent 1000 or GEnx-1B) combination. That testing should start next month along with functionality and reliability testing. Boeing seems to getting close to those needed tests which will be the final set of tests prior to type certification and first delivery to ANA which is still expected in late July.

To add further evidence, ZA102 (LN 9), a 787 that has already flown in support of 787 flight testing and certification has been pulled out of the ATS Hangar 3 to the Everett flightline. It had spent months in the hangar going through change incorporation and re-work in order to participate in the F&R and ETOPs testing. It appears that Boeing is preparing it to resume flight tests.

ZA004 did start the process of swapping out its Trent-1000 package "A" engines on April 27th (starting wit the left engine) and the process should be concluded around May 18th (with the right engine). After some ground testing the aircraft will reenter flight testing probably around early June.

Lastly, Boeing also confirmed that the final version of the software that runs the 787 electrical systems has been installed on all flight test aircraft. This is the final hurdle required by the FAA that allows Boeing to proceed with the final phases of flight testing in light of the fire on ZA002 last November. Currently Boeing says that they are through 95% of the testing on the Rolls Royce powered 787 and 75% of required testing on the GEnx-1B powered airplanes. It should be noted taht flight testing has been muted in teh last few days. I'm trying to find out why.

The 787 is now finally on the road to the home stretch.

Production and Delivery

The 787 flight test program is going well, so well that Wall Street Analyst, in a survey, said that they believe that the 787 will be delivered on time by the end of the 3rd quarter, though many believe that end of July, 3 months from now, will see the delivery of the first 787 to ANA.

Susanna Ray: Boeing’s Delays on 787 May End as Analysts See On-Time Entry

To that end Boeing announced this afternoon that the first 10 pilots from ANA have arrived in Seattle to start training in Boeing's simulators (why they didn't go to the Boeing 787 training center in Tokyo is unknown).

Boeing Begins 787 Dreamliner Pilot Training with Launch Customer ANA

Start of 787 flight training marks significant milestone toward first delivery

SEATTLE, April 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has started 787 Dreamliner pilot training with launch customer ANA (All Nippon Airways). Ten pilots from ANA began the training program with classroom instructions in Tokyo earlier this month. Training on simulation devices began April 23 at the Boeing Flight Services training campus in Seattle, Wash. First delivery of the 787 is scheduled for the third quarter of this year.

"The start of customer training is an exciting milestone on any new airplane program," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "In the case of the 787 Dreamliner, we're seeing the results of a special working relationship between Boeing and ANA. We worked side by side with ANA for more than four years conducting simulator evaluations, curriculum reviews and cross-training so that each team learned from the other. It has truly been a collaboration between committed individuals dedicated to ensuring success," Carbary said.

The Boeing 787 flight training program uses an innovative suite of training devices including a full-flight simulator, flight training device and desktop simulation station to ensure that pilots are ready to fly the Dreamliner.

With the 787 pilot training courses, pilots can transition to the new airplane in five to 20 days, depending on pilot experience. Boeing 777 pilots can qualify to fly the 787 in as little as five days, given the high level of commonality between the two airplane types.

"This is a significant milestone for our company," said Hideyuki Shibuichi, senior vice president of Flight Operations for ANA. "Getting our pilots trained and prepared is essential to being ready to take delivery of the airplane later this year."

In order to bring training closer to customers around the world, Boeing has installed a network of eight 787 training suites at five global campuses: Seattle, Singapore, Tokyo, London Gatwick and Shanghai.

This clearly shows the confidence that Boeing and ANA have in meeting the first delivery of the 787 in a few months time. What is unclear is deliveries of the 787s that are in the process of being re-worked and have the required changes incorporated into them. Dominic Gates published a damaging article that puts into doubt Boeing's ability to delivery up to 20 787s this year with one engineer calling the change incorporation and re-work "a mess." Of the major tasks that are taking long to complete is the removal of sealants from the wings and resealing them. Apparently this process is taking weeks and requires gutting the aircraft. The computerized inventory system that Boeing is using in the program is also causing trouble and extending out the re-work schedule on the planes.

Read more of Dominic's article:

Dominic Gates : Boeing Still Struggling with the 787

Right now modifications are on going in building 40-24 (former 767 assembly line), ATS Hangar 3 and in Boeing San Antonio, Tx. facility. There are two 787 (both for Royal Air Maroc) in 40-24, 5 at ATS and the one JAL 787 in San Antonio. The problem is so severe that Flightblogger is reporting that JAL's first 78 which was supposed to be delivered in October of this year may be pushed out to November or December depending on which source you believe from Flightblogger's article. It does point to trouble on the horizon with getting these airplanes prepared for delivery and EIS.

Fllightblogger : The arrival of JAL's first 787 prompts a tangle of delivery dates

In an earlier post Flightblogger described the work that is on going within the ATS Hangar 3 and also reports that Boeing will be there for some time to come (looks like ATS will be making out handsomely from this). Boeing is so entrenched there that the Hangar has been dubbed "Boeing South." There are 5 spots at this hangar and currently Boeing has 5 787s, all for ANA, occupying all 5 spots within the hangar undergoing rework:

Spot 1: LN 9, ZA102
Spot 2A: LN 31, ZA117
Spot 2B: LN 7, ZA100
Spot 3: LN 24, ZA116
Spot 4: LN 8, ZA101

According to Flightblogger, ZA102 (which should have been completed this month) is due to finish rework by middle of May though it is unknown about the other aircraft.

Flightblogger: A tale of two factories: Boeing set to expand
787 mod operation

Guy Norris also has put out an update on both 787 and 747-8I testing thus far (RC021 the 2nd 747-8I flew for the first time today). In his article he reports that ZA001 was testing failure scenarios and back up systems certification testing. ZA001 is expected to continue with this testing extending it to fuel vent systems and controlability limits with a simulated engine out.

ZA002 will start certification testing on the package "A" EIS standard Trent 1000 engine.

Guy Norris: 747-8 and 787 flight test update

Finally, ZA004 which was to have started the switch to the improved Trent 1000 engines last week apparently will start the conversion process on April 27th (tomorrow). It is currently flying from Yuma MCAS back to Boeing Field. I am assuming that the engine change out will occur at Boeing Field.

747-8I and 787-8 together at last

Boeing Photo

How's this for the ultimate photo in aviation geekdom, the 787-8 and the 747-8I flying in formation together while in test flight during this past weekend? Boeing photographed the pair together and will release it as a poster for purchase.

Home Stretch

Boeing Photos

As 787 flight testing continues, Boeing and its customers are starting to prepare for delivery and EIS of the 787 which should take place this summer.

With much of the test points already completed (90+% on the Trent 1000) Boeing is preparing for the final phase of flight tests. ZA004 will have its package “A” Trent 1000 engines switched out in favor of the improved package “B” engines starting on April 20th with the left engine. That process should be completed by April 30th followed by the right engine removal and replacement between May 2nd and May 11th. The aircraft should resume test flights soon after the remove and replace of the Trent 1000 engines though no new flight date has been revealed.

The much anticipated functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs testing will start in June and should take up that month and into the early part of July and wrapping up the 787 flight test program. In the meantime Boeing announced that approval has been given by regulatory agencies (FAA, CAA, EASA, JCAB, and the CAAC) to start 787 flight training by Boeing developed training devices including full flight simulators.

Concurrently, launch customer ANA announced that they are starting flight training for the first group of 787 pilots and should have 80 trained pilots by March 31, 2012. This adds more confidence that the 787 should be delivered within the summer time frame though it all depends on how remaining testing goes as well as the pace of re-work and modifications on the 787s that have been built.

Lastly, two early build 787-8 that had been allocated for Korean Air were allocated to other customers on the heels of Korean Air’s decision to take 787-9s instead of the -8 model. LN 54 is now going to Air India while LN 59 is now going to ANA. Here's Boeing's Statement on the start of global 787 pilot training:

Boeing Ready to Deliver 787 Pilot Training on Global Scale

Network of training devices qualified in five locations, three continents

SEATTLE, April 18, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) has achieved multiple qualifications for its worldwide network of 787 training campuses. The qualifications mean Boeing Flight Services has training devices that are ready to be used with an approved training course in locations around the globe. "The innovations of the 787 Dreamliner don't end with the airplane itself," said Sherry Carbary, vice president, Boeing Flight Services. "Boeing is changing the game through continued innovation in our advanced suite of training technologies. By bringing this cutting-edge training directly to airlines in the regions of the world where they're based and serve their passengers, we're offering our customers the flexibility and efficiency of flight crew training where they need it, when they need it," Carbary said. Full-flight simulators and other flight training devices for commercial pilot training require qualifications from each airline's home country regulatory agency. Boeing is qualifying its network of 787 training devices with multiple regulators in order to allow airlines the maximum options and regional locations for training their crews. "Providing our airline customers with cost effective flexibility is a top priority," said Roei Ganzarski, chief customer officer, Boeing Training & Flight Services. "We've invested in world-class courseware, trained a global team of experienced instructors, and now have certified a worldwide network of simulators, all to provide 787 operators an efficient and effective 787 training solution." Boeing operates 787 training campuses in five locations: Seattle, Singapore, Tokyo, London Gatwick and Shanghai. As part of the qualification process, Boeing demonstrated, with the regulators' concurrence, that the training devices located at the five campuses around the world were similar or identical in the way they operate. The qualifications from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) on behalf of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) and the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) will allow Boeing Flight Services to deliver the same quality of training at all locations. Last month the CAAC qualified the Shanghai Boeing training campus for 787 training including the full-flight 787 simulator and the 787 flight training device. With this achievement, Boeing has received more than 20 separate qualifications in five locations on three continents in support of 787 entry into service beginning later this year.

ZA001 flies to Canadian East Coast

On April 1st, ZA001 flew to Gander in New Foundland and I just founds out that she's in town to perform cross wind landing tests. Right now that's all the information I have and will try to dig to get some more.

ZA001 is closing on 1,000 flight hors flown and by my estimate has about 996 hours as of April 2, 2011. It can conceivably break through the 1,000 hour barrier tomorrow or Monday...Watch this space.

In the meantime, I am attempting to keep the 787 location database up to date so if anyone has anything to contribute, I appreciate any information you can send my way!

15 Months In.....

Ok so it has been a while and I've been out of circulation a bit but I'm back so let's get down to business!

All photos courtesy of Boeing

747-8

Boeing's enlarged version of their iconic widebody, the 747-8I, took to the skies on March 20th at exactly the time that Boeing said it would fly. The test flight crew of Mark Feuerstein and Paul Stemer took it up for a four plus hour test flight which exceeded all expectations and allowed Boeing to proceed with test that normally would wait until well after first flight like testing stability and control conditions. The 747-8I that flew, RC001, landed at a little at 2 pm local time at Boeing Field where the two plane test flight fleet will be based. RC021, the next 747-8I to fly is already starting preparation for ground testing and has already had its first APU start at the Everett fuel dock. The 747-8I test program will take about 600 flight hours and should be done in about 8 to 9 months at the outside. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first couple at the end of the year after the aircraft is certified. Meanwhile the 747-8F test program continues apace as that program continues to tick off more certification milestones as it aims for certification and delivery in about 3 to 4 months.

787

787 program is now aiming for first delivery for late July to ANA, according to Flightblogger, which is within Boeing's delivery guidance but is much earlier than expected and may reflect the conservative estimates that Boeing had put out when they announced the latest delivery schedule.

Test flight testing pace has slowed since the January-February time frame indicating that much of the certification testing is already complete and Boeing is ready to move into the final phase of flight test: functionality and reliability testing and ETOPs flight tests. It is expected that this testing should start around May and conclude around mid July. The Trent powered 787s have completed 85% of the certification test points that it needs to achieve while the GEnx equipped 787s are about 70% complete with their certification testing.

Additionally, ZA004 is now expected to switch out it's Trent-1000 "A" package engines for the improved package "B" engines around the first week on April. All the while, Boeing will continue to churn out 787s in Everett. Already Boeing is working on airplane 36 and will start on airplane 37 sometime tomorrow. Boeing is well on it's way to implementing the change incorporation program with many of the 787s at Everett already going through the re-work process in order to be in compliance with the expected FAA type certification expected in July. Boeing is expecting to deliver the first 787 to ANA in July followed by JAL and Air India in October and China Southern probably around the November-December time frame. All in all Boeing will probably deliver about 20 787s this year and I expect that most of those delivered will be the the aircraft requiring less rework though I would think that the earlier build 787s all should be delivered by around February of 2012 at the latest.

Japan Earthquake

A big unknown that has crept into Boeing's plans is the effects of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan will have on not just 787 production but indeed on the production of all Boeing jets. Boeing uses the just in time method of operations to keep inventories (and thus costs) low. However with this potential disruption caused by the earthquake, tsunami and problems at the Fukushima nuclear plant Boeing has admitted that they may have just a few weeks of parts for their airplane programs. For the 787, the major tier 1 suppliers are in Nagoya which is south of the affected zone. However other minor suppliers are situated in the areas that were hit. As it stands Boeing is still saying that as of right now, 787 production is unaffected but long term we will have to watch. Boeing is planning to increase production to 2.5 airplanes per month later this summer (June according to Flightblogger) and with the start of production at Charleston in July will go higher still meaning that the Japanese suppliers will be needed to make sure they have the infrastructure and electrical needs in order to meet the higher output milestones this summer.

Speaking of Charleston, that plant is practically done and I think they may start production on time in July. They are going to be done with the interiors production facility in December and should be in a great position to contribute to the 787 production increase to 10/month.

Boeing selling spree continues, Hainan orders 38 jets including 32 787s

Boeing won an order for 30 787-9, 2 787-8 BBJ and 6 777F in an order announcement that came at the Asian Aerospace 2011 show. These aircraft were ordered by Hong Kong Airlines and are an MoU (subject to being finalized. Hainan Airlines Co. Ltd. ownes Hong Kong Airlines. This is a big day for Boeing widebody offferings as earlier they had announced another MoU with Air China for 5 747-8I.

This is the first significant order for the 787 since United Airlines placed an order for 25 787s in 2010. A delivery date has not been announced but I suspect it will be in 2015 or so.

Air China buys 747-8I

Boeing announced that Air China has agreed, pending Chinese Govt. approval, to buy 5 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft. When finalized, Boeing will have 30 firm 747-8I order from airline customers. The yalso have 8 747-8I orders from Boeing Business Jets. Air China says that the 747-8I will be delivered over the next three years.

Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing, Air China Sign Agreement for 747-8 Intercontinentals

Air China to become first Chinese customer for Boeing's newest jumbo jet

HONG KONG, March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Air China today signed an agreement for the purchase of five 747-8 Intercontinental jetliners. Air China is the first Chinese carrier to contract the passenger version of the new, fuel-efficient 747-8.

The agreement requires Chinese government approval, at which time it will be posted to the Boeing Orders & Deliveries website.

"Air China has been operating 747s since the 1980s," said He Li, vice president of Air China. "The new, high capacity Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental will deliver exceptional economics and a great flying experience to our customers."

Air China, the flag carrier of the People's Republic of China, will use the airplanes to expand its international routes.

"The technologically advanced 747-8 Intercontinental will deliver improved operating economics, efficiency and environmental performance in support of Air China's continued growth," said Marlin Dailey, vice president of Sales & Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "Air China has become one of the fastest growing airlines in the world and today is one of the world's largest carriers. We're proud to be part of their success and look forward to continuing our long and enduring partnership."

The new 747-8 Intercontinental carries 467 passengers in a three-class configuration. The airplane features a new wing design and an upgraded flight deck. The airplane interior incorporates features from the 787 Dreamliner including a new curved, upswept architecture that will give passengers a greater sense of space and comfort, while adding more room for personal belongings. The architecture will be accentuated by lighting technology that provides smooth transitions for a more restful flight.

Using 787-technology GEnx-2B engines, the airplane will be quieter, produce lower emissions and achieve better fuel economy than any competing jetliner. It also increases cargo volume by 26 percent.