Last month Boeing was able to squeeze out one more delivery and turn over 13 787s to customers and end the quarter with 30 deliveries which is par given the production rate. In reality it could have been 32 if it were not for the two British Airways 787-9s that are delayed due to continuing production issues at Zodiac. Still Boeing turned in a very respectable quarter and it will be interesting to hear how they did with the deferred production costs over the past three months when they have the earnings call in next week. Air Canada saw their fleet of 787s increase measurably as they took ownership of 3 787-9s. Virgin took 2 -9s including one that was damaged by an engine fire some months ago and Air Europa received their first 787-8.
For April, Boeing is planning 10 deliveries which will include the 100th 787-9 which is going to Air Canada and the 400th 787 which should be delivered to Etihad Airways. However, it seems that Boeing will be breaking rate and going to 12 787 per month this month based on the load dates for both North Charleston and Everett. For this month it appears that Everett will start final assembly on 7 787s and Charleston will start work on 5. Interestingly enough the assembly build time at Everett looks to decrease to 18 to 19 days from about 22 to 24 days. At Charleston build time has decreased to 25 to 26 days from 30 to 31 days.
Boeing is also now phasing out positions 5 and 6 inside the Charleston final assembly building and using it to park 787s that have completed final assembly. The North Charleston line now mimicks the Everett line.
Boeing continues work on the early build 787s as they have now moved one more aircraft from runway storage to the EMC. ZD003 (LN10) was moved this month to the EMC to start the re-work and rebuild process before being delivered to Ethiopian Airlines next year. Boeing still has three more 787s that they need to start re-work and change incorporation work on including two test flight aircraft but most of the early builds are now well into the change incorporation process. ZD004 (LN12) also for Ethiopian has completed the change incorporation work and will making its first flight soon in preparation for delivery tentatively in June. however, the ongoing issue with the US Export-Import Bank may delay delivery.
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| The wing set for the first 787-10 behind a set of wings for a 787-9. Photo by Chris Edwards of Woody's Aeroimages. |
Orders have been slow in coming. I am anticipating that we'll see a few 787 orders at Farnborough including the much anticipated Emirates order for 100 787s (split between the -9 and -10).
At Risk Orders
Given the large backlog of 787 orders, are there orders that are "at risk" of being cancelled. I take a look at what orders may be at risk for Boeing by model. I'm not looking at potential conversions but those orders that may be cancelled outright.
Let's start with the 787-8.
Boeing has reduced this backlog to about 140 -8s that have to be delivered.
| Customer Name | Customer Code | Model | Ordered | Delivered | Undelivered | Scheduled for Final Assembly |
| AerCap | ILF | 787-8 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 0 |
| Aeroflot | ARO | 787-8 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Air Astana | AKZ | 787-8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Air Austral | AUX | 787-8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Air Europa | ARE | 787-8 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Air India | AIN | 787-8 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 2 |
| Air Niugini | NIU | 787-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| ALAFCO | FCO | 787-8 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| All Nippon Airways | ANA | 787-8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 1 |
| American Airlines | AAL | 787-8 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 4 |
| Avianca | AVI | 787-8 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Biman Bangladesh Airlines | BNG | 787-8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| British Airways | BAB | 787-8 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) | BBJ | 787-8 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Delta Air Lines | DAL | 787-8 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 0 |
| Ethiopian Airlines | ETH | 787-8 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Icelandair | ICE | 787-8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Japan Airlines | JAL | 787-8 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 2 |
| LAN Airlines | LAN | 787-8 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 |
| LOT Polish Airlines | LOT | 787-8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Oman Air | OMR | 787-8 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| PrivatAir | PTS | 787-8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Qatar Airways | QTR | 787-8 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 3 |
| Republic of Iraq | IRG | 787-8 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Royal Air Maroc | RAM | 787-8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Royal Brunei Airlines | RBA | 787-8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Royal Jordanian | RJA | 787-8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 2 |
| Scoot Pte Ltd | NPD | 787-8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| Uzbekistan Airways | UZB | 787-8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 140 | 38 |
Of these I highlighted in red the ones that I view as orders that are at risk of being cancelled. Aeroflot, Delta and Iraqi Airways are the obvious candidates. Aeroflot has stated that they intend to cancel their 787 order but then surprisingly converted 4 787-8 into the 787-9. Despite this conversion I still view them as at risk to be cancelled due to the political and economic instability that exists in Russia today. Delta took over Northwest's 787 order and has repeatedly pushed back first delivery. This order is even more in doubt when the airline committed to the A350 last year. This order is certainly a candidate to be cancelled or to be converted into another aircraft type. With the political instability as well as the low price of oil, the order by Iraqi Airways (through the government of Iraq) is certainly at risk of being cancelled even though years of war, sanctions and neglect has hurt their fleet and their operations. They do need new aircraft but I don't see how this order can be filled given the political and economic distress of the country. PrivatAir had trouble taking delivery of their first 787-8 and apparently this aircraft is on the market to be sold. Biman Bangladesh placed their 787-8 order in 2008 for delivery in 2017 but I have not seen the airline pop up on the assembly firing order as of yet. LOT Polish already has 6 787s but has not determined when or if they will take the remaining 2 on order.
| Customer Name | Customer Code | Model | Ordered | Delivered | Undelivered | Scheduled for Final Assembly |
| AerCap | ILF | 787-9 | 48 | 11 | 37 | 9 |
| Aeroflot | ARO | 787-9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Aeromexico | AMX | 787-9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4 |
| Air Canada | ACN | 787-9 | 29 | 9 | 20 | 10 |
| Air China | BEJ | 787-9 | 15 | 0 | 15 | 8 |
| Air Europa | ARE | 787-9 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 0 |
| Air France-KLM Group | FXN | 787-9 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 2 |
| Air New Zealand | ANZ | 787-9 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| Air Tahiti Nui | THT | 787-9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| ALC | HAZ | 787-9 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 3 |
| All Nippon Airways | ANA | 787-9 | 44 | 11 | 33 | 12 |
| American Airlines | AAL | 787-9 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 6 |
| Arik Air | AKD | 787-9 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| Aviation Capital Group | CGP | 787-9 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Avolon | VLN | 787-9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| British Airways | BAB | 787-9 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 11 |
| Business Jet / VIP Customer(s) | BBJ | 787-9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CIT Leasing Corporation | TCI | 787-9 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 3 |
| El Al | ELY | 787-9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Etihad Airways | ETI | 787-9 | 41 | 5 | 36 | 8 |
| Gulf Air | GUL | 787-9 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| Hainan Airlines | HNA | 787-9 | 24 | 0 | 24 | 8 |
| Japan Airlines | JAL | 787-9 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 5 |
| Jet Airways | JPL | 787-9 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
| Korean Air | KAL | 787-9 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 2 |
| LAN Airlines | LAN | 787-9 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| MG Aviation | NKA | 787-9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Norwegian Air International Ltd | NSB | 787-9 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| QANTAS | QAN | 787-9 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Saudi Arabian Airlines | SVA | 787-9 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Scoot Pte Ltd | NPD | 787-9 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| TUI Travel PLC | BRI/TTP | 787-9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Unidentified Customer(s) | UNK | 787-9 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 0 |
| Unidentified Customer(s) | UNK | 787-9 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Unidentified Customer(s) | UNK | 787-9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Unidentified Customer(s) | UNK | 787-9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| United Air Lines | UAL/CAL | 787-9 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 4 |
| Vietnam Airlines | VIE | 787-9 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Virgin Atlantic Airways | VAA | 787-9 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| Xiamen Airlines | XIA | 787-9 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| Total | 451 | 123 |
The 787-9 is proving to be the most popular 787 variant accounting for almost half the 787 order book. over the past few years there have been a few conversions to the -9 from the -8 thus I see very few at risk orders on this book. Still Aeroflot which converted 4 -8 into -9s around the time that they said that the carrier was cancelling the 787 order is certainly at risk for the same reasons that the -8 order is at risk. Arik Air placed their order for the -9 in 2007...9 years ago and the most latest information is that they were to be delivered this year. Given that Arik had also ordered the 747-8 (2) and several 737 (10), they've only taken delivery of 2 737s.
787 Full Production Table
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