Prospective 787 customers and August production and delivery review

On the heels of QANTAS' return to the 787 order book, I thought it would be good to review other potential 787 orders that may firm up by year end.  This is by no means an exhaustive list but the more visible ones.

QANTAS – They still have 15 options (delivery slots with a delivery date) and 30 purchase rights (no specific delivery date).  QANTAS exercised the 5 options for delivery from 2017 to 2019.  The remaining 15 options are for 787-9 delivery slots from 2020 to 2021 while the 30 rights are for delivery from 2021 to 2025.  As I had mentioned previously, I expect that QANTAS will take a piecemeal approach to exercising these options and rights as they come due depending on business conditions and new route development plans.

Emirates - This order has been rumored to be going Boeing's way though Tim Clark has poured called water on these rumors by saying that he 787 doesn't have enough thrust to operate without payload restriction in Dubai hot and arrid environment.  Still I do expect that Emirates will pull the trigger on an order comprising of 787-9 and 787-10 at the Dubai Air Show during November 8th through 12th.

Qatar Airways - Qatar has taken delivery of 22 out of 30 787-8s that they had ordered.  They will receive the remainder of their order of 8 aircraft by the end of the second quarter of 2016.  They still do have 30 options left and I do believe that they will exercise them also for a combination of 787-9s.  I'm not sure if they will be in for the 787-10 given Qatar's 787-8 experience with the Charleston team and the 787-10 will be built exclusively in Charleston.

El-Al - The Israeli airline announced that they will be taking on 15 787-8 and 787-9 through a mixture of direct purchases from Boeing as well as leases.  They also will have 13 787 options for future growth.  This order should be firmed up in the next few weeks.

Hainan Airlines – They have said that they are committing to ordering 30 787-9s with deliveries starting in 2021 but this order has yet to appear on Boeing’s order and delivery web site. They may be the unidentified customer that had ordered 30 787-9 in two separate tranches (24 and 6).  Interestingly, there are 2 787-9 on the 787 firing order that are being leased to Hainan.  These airplanes should be delivered next year.

Phillipine Airlines – They’re looking to increase their widebody fleet and are looking at an order of 6 A350s or 787s.  Word is that the A350 has the edge in this contest.

Turkish Airlines – Turkish Airlines has been saying that they are evaluating the 787 for years but have yet to announce a decision.  The airline has bought form both Boeing and Airbus so this order, when it does come, can go either way.

If any readers have any other information on potential orders that are coming up or that would be announced, please feel free to add it to the comments section.

Production and Deliveries

As we’re getting closer to the end of August, the delivery schedule for the remainder of the month is becoming clearer.  Boeing has delivered 6 787s thus far but expects to deliver 8 aircraft in the next one week.  Four of these airplanes still have yet to conduct their C-1 customer acceptance flights which all should be flown tomorrow, August 25^th. 

LN126-Del-8/25
LN329-Del-8/26
LN332-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN333-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN334-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN335-C1-8/25, Del-8/28
LN336-Del-8/28

LN341-Del-8/28

At the end of the month I expect that Boeing would have delivered 14 787; 6 787-8 and 8 787-9, 2 787-8 for American, 2 787-9 each for Vietnam Airlines and AerCap (leased to LAN), 1 787-9 each for Air Canada, Air New Zealand, ANA, and United.  Finally 1 787-8 will be delivered each to AerCap (leased to Thai), BBJ (Sultan of Brunei), Scoot, and CIT (leased to Aeromexico).

If the remaining 8 deliveries occur then Boeing would have 14 for August, 90 for 2015 and 318 program deliveries.  That would mean that Boeing would need to deliver an average of 7.5 787s per month for the remainder of the year in order to meet its 2015 delivery goal of at least 120 787s.  I believe they can deliver 135 by year end surpassing their goal by 12.5%.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

QANTAS finally commits to 787, Boeing set to deliver 13 787s by end of August

QANTAS 787-9

After years of struggling to return to profitability, Australian carrier, QANTAS, has returned to the black and has started ordering the 787.  Actually QANTAS had the 787-9 on order but cancelled an order for 35 aircraft in 2012 when their financial situation was bleak.  They retained the 787-8 order for Jetstar (14 aircraft) as well as retained the 20 options and 30 purchase rights at the time of the cancellation.  The purcahse rights have no production slots assigned to them whereas the options do.  QANTAS will exercise the options first as the expiration dates come due.

The carrier ordered 8 787-9, 3 of which are conversion of 3 Jetstar 787-8 to 787-9, and exercised 5 options.  The first four are to arrive between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018 while the second set of four will arrive between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019.  These 8 aircraft will replace 5 747-400.  QANTAS is not reducing overall fleet capacity but the use of the smaller 787-9 will give the airline more flexibility to down-gauge routes that are currently using the 747-400.  Jetstar's 11th 787 is already on the flightline and should be delivered next month.

QANTAS still retains 15 options and 30 rights for any model 787, thus I do see that the 787-10 can very well be in QANTAS' future.  The replacement strategy seems to be to only exercise the rights/options just before they are about to expire thus taking advantage of long term fleet and route planning at QANTAS as they replace the 747s.

ANA 787-9 ZB411 (LN329, JA872A)

In other 787 news, Boeing is looking to deliver 13 total 787s in August (I was predicting 15 earlier but 2 were pushed to early September).  3 aircraft (one each for ANA (787-9), CIT/Aeromexico (787-8), and Air New Zealand (787-9) have had their customer flights and should be delivered in the next week.  Air New Zealand will be receiving ZB001, the first 787-9 produced, after the aircraft had undergone a complete refurbishment at the conclusion of the 787-9 test program.  5 more 787s are awaiting their customer flights including one each for Air Canada (787-9), American Airlines (787-8), Scoot (787-8), United Airlines (787-9) and Vietnam Airlines (787-9).  If all the deliveries are made this month, Boeing would have delivered 13 in August, 89 through the first 8 months of 2015 and 317 since program deliveries began almost 4 years ago.

Lastly, ZB412 (LN345, JA873A) otherwise known as the "Star Wars" jet has been completed.  According to plans, this aircraft should have it's first flight on August 26th and then flown to Everett on August 31st where it will be painted in the special Star Wars scheme.  There is to be a special ceremony at the Future of Flight by ANA (I wonder if any of the cast of the new Star Wars movie will be there) around September 12th/13th.  The airplane will return to Charleston on September 14th to continue delivery preparations which should take place around September 29th.  The aircraft will be pressed into ANA service around October 16th.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Planned first flight, customer flight and delivery dates for 787 deliveries in August

Here are the planned B1, C1 and delivery dates for the 787s that are projected to be handed over to customers this month.  This list, obviously, is subject to change and some deliveries may be pushed into September depending on flight testing progress and the need for additional engineering or customer flights.

LN126-C1-8/18, Del-8/25 
LN315-Del-8/30
LN327-Del-8/13
LN329-C1-8/19, Del-8/26 
LN330-C1-8/17, Del-8/24 
LN332-B1-8/12, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN333-B1-8/14, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN334-B1-8/13, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN335-C1-8/21, Del-8/28 
LN336-B1-8/13, C1-8/21, Del-8/28 

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

Boeing 787 deliveries reach over 300; posts 12 deliveries in July

Over 4 years ago the 787 program was starting to emerge from most of the issues that had plagued the program since 2007. The first delivery was right around the corner to ANA. A little less than 4 years after program deliveries began, a time when Boeing was barely reducing 2 787s each month. Now Boeing has reached 300 deliveries coming from 2 different production facilities running at 10 per month for 2 different models of the 787.  Boeing announced #300 though Randy's Journal, but they won't name the carrier.  It's possible that it was ANA but that is speculation on my part.

Boeing's 300th 787 delivery come amidst a drive to increase the delivery rate in the third quarter.  I'm not sure which airline accepted delivery of number 300 but it is either ANA, United Airlines, Etihad or Air Canada.  Through July 31st Boeing has delivered 304 787s, 76 in 2015 and 12 in the month of July.  The aircraft maker also rolled out 11 787s from its factories; 7 from Everett (including the surge line in 40-24) and 4 from Charleston.  11 787s starting final assembly in July with 5 on the main Everett line in 40-26, 1 going to the surge line in 40-24 and 5 in Charleston.

Production efficiency improved this month, particularly at Everett as 9 Everett 787s were delivered vs, 7 rollouts.  Charleston was hurt because of the delayed delivery of the two Kenya Airways jets.  Their efficiency number was not as good given the 3 deliveries vs. 4 roll outs.  Overall the 787 efficiency was .92 a good number but could have been better if Kenya was ready to take its 2 remaining 787s.

July deliveries would have been higher but for Kenya Airways and PrivatAir deferring the delivery of  3 787-8 which are ready to be handed over.  PrivatAir's delivery now looks to be in August and the two Kenya Airways may be handed over in September.

Looking forward, Boeing is planning for 15 deliveries including the PrivatAir delivery.  6 airplanes slated for August delivery have yet to take their B-1 flights including 2 787s at Charleston.  Only 4 are ready for the August delivery but that will, of course, change over the next couple of weeks.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 results from Boeing's 2nd quarter 2015 earnings call

Boeing released its 2nd quarter 2015 earnings this morning.  In it they revealed that cumulative deferred production cost increased by $790 million over the quarter (compared to $793 million during Q1' 2015).  Total 787 program deferred production cost now stands at $27.7 billion, a number which is not expected to decrease meaningfully until production hits 12/month sometime next year (a goal toward which they are tracking well).  They should see a drop in the growth of deferred production cost in the 4th quarter of this year.

As I reported earlier, Boeing had delivered 64 787 up to June 30th, 2015 and over 290 since program deliveries started.  Production is now balanced between both the 787-8 and the 787-9.   The 787-8 saw production cost decline 35% over the first 210 deliveries but more impressive is the -9 cost reduction of 30% over the first 34 deliveries.  The -9 should be more profitable for Boeing than the -8.  This is significant as Boeing has more 787-9 and -10 (assuming that the largest 787 derivative also follows a similar cost reduction curve as the -9) to deliver than the -8s.  This means that higher margin potential for the remaining deliveries is greater.  Boeing sees that the -9 has higher level of  profitability next year.  This is all attributable to lessons learned in the 787 program as well as smoother entry into service  for the -9.

In addressing 787 deliveries for the second half of 2015, CFO Greg Smith said:

"On deliveries, certainly we expect the back half to be healthy on 787 deliveries. But as you know, quarter to quarter, Cai, purely from customer ability to take the aircraft, that moves around a little bit. But we're comfortable about where we are on our guide. If we have the opportunity to change that, we'll do that. But I'd say we're well on track to hit that, our objective on about 120. So I think we're in pretty good shape there. But again, the back half will be important for us."

Thus Boeing is hinting that the third quarter 787 deliveries may be big and I'll be watching that very carefully.

Boeing looking to deliver large number of 787s in 3rd quarter.

As we get closer to the end of July, Boeing is starting a drive to deliver as many as 135 787s this year and key to that will be deliveries for the third quarter. To that end it appears that Boeing will try to deliver a total of 13 787s in July. Most of the aircraft to be delivered this month already have their customer flights (2 have yet to fly a customer acceptance flight). The 300th 787 to be delivered will be amongst this group of 13 airplanes and currently it appears that ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad will have the honors but that may change. The delivery drive won’t end there as Boeing is planning to deliver around 18 to 20 787s in August (some of which were deferred deliveries from earlier months) and 12 to 14 in September. If all the 787s projected for delivery are actually delivered in the 3rd quarter, we can see 45 787s going into customer hands in the quarter which is a huge number. Deliveries are expected to tail off in the fourth quarter, particularly in the last month and a half of 2015 with no more than 27 possible 787 deliveries.

This is a large number of deliveries and this is a plan as of now but it is something that Boeing is attempting to accomplish over the next two and half months. The key will be production flights to prepare for the onslaught of 787 deliveries in August. So far only a few 787s that are slated for delivery in August have flown but I do believe that will change over the next couple of weeks. 18 deliveries in one month are possible for the 787 program and it is something they had accomplished during Dec. 2014. Again a good indicator is the number of B-1 flights that take place between now and around August 20th.

For July, Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far with an additional 8 scheduled for delivery over the next 10 days. Air New Zealand will receive one of the 787-9 test aircraft that had under gone re-work and rebuilt to production standards. This aircraft, ZB002 (LN133, ZK-NZD) will be the 298th 787 delivered. After that there are 4 787s that are tentatively scheduled to deliver on July 27th. They are ZB079 (LN286, A6-BLC) for Etihad, ZB536 (LN303, VN-A861) for Vietnam Airlines, ZB410 (LN319, JA871A) for ANA and ZB173 (LN324, N45956) for United Airlines. Note that all these deliveries are 787-9s. As I mentioned, I believe that ZB536 will probably be the 300th but we’ll have to see. Boeing should close out 787 deliveries for July 2015 with ZB558 (LN323, C-FNOE) for Air Canada on July 29th which is also its first 787-9 and ZA142 (LN322, JA840A) a 787-8 for ANA. There were two 787-8 that were scheduled for delivery to Kenya Airways (ZA662 (LN307, 5Y-KZH) and ZA663 (LN317, 5Y-KZJ)) which are now scheduled for a late August delivery.

Finally it looks like Crystal Cruises is picking up some 787s according to this article in USA Today. My sources say that they may be picking up 3 787-8s from the terrible teens (they have a variable number that starts with ZD). The only ones that make logical choice are LN 5, LN17, and LN19 which are all GE equipped 787s. Also on the possible new order front, EVA Airways is saying that they plane on buying 24-26 787s for delivery between 2018 and 2019 according to a report by Reuters. We’ll see when these do in fact materialize.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

787 July 2015 Mid Month Update

Now that the second half of the year is underway, we should expect to see some changes in the 787 program the most visible of which is the production taper of 787 temporary surge line in Everett.  Last month there were 3 787s loaded into the Surge position 1 to start final assembly.  Starting this month Boeing will load only one 787 into the surge line in building 40-24 and that will come at the end of the month for the next four months.  40-24 is going to be a very lonely place until 777X production get started in three years.

The 2 787s from surge production are being allocated one each to the main lines in Everett 40-26 and North Charleston 88-30.  In fact North Charleston production is already very busy with 8 airplanes on the final assembly floor and another 6 on the flightline.

Boeing can deliver a total of 12 787s this month,  8 787-8 and 4 787-9.  I expect that there can be up to 6 deliveries in July from North Charleston including one 787-8 for PrivatAir that was assembled At Everett but ferried to South Carolina.  One 787-8 for Kenya Airways was supposed to be delivered in June but was held up at the request of the customer for unknown reasons.  Sources say that this airplane should be delivered this month which would be the 6th delivery out of North Charleston.  Some notable deliveries would include the first 787-8 for Scoot and Vietnam's first 787-9 as well as the aforementioned first 787-8 for PrivatAir.  Boeing has already delivered 2 787, both to Jetstar.

Thus far through today, July 15, 2015, Boeing has delivered 2 787s this month, 66 in 2015 and 294 total since deliveries began in September 2011.

There was some good news and some potentially not so good news for the 787 program.  First the not so good news.  Zodiac Aerospace has more trouble again when an explosion occurred (a possible chemical explosion) at its interior fabrication plant in Newport, Washington.  Both Boeing and Airbus are reviewing the impact to their production lines but I do believe that this will impact Boeing more than Airbus.  It is unclear if it will impact 787 deliveries at this point.

The good news for the 787 program is that the 787-10 has completed its CDR (critical design review) and is on its way to having 90% of detailed engineering drawings completed by the end of the year.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Enterprising Pilot Turns 787 Scraps into Works of Art

Photo Courtesy of Michael Kurchina

Ever wonder what happens to the scrap carbon fiber cutouts that results from the production of 787 fuselage sections?  Spirit Aerosystems cuts out 18 window panels from each 787 section 41 it produces for Boeing.  That is 180 carbon fiber "windows" that are discarded each month.

Photo Courtesy of Michael Kurchina

Photo Courtesy of Michael Kurchina

This is where Rouge pilot (the LCC division of Air Canada) Michael Kurchina steps in.  After arranging a visit to Spirits' 787 production facilities in Wichita, KS, Michael was granted permission to take a couple of the carbon fiber window cutouts during his visit.

Photo Courtesy of Michael Kurchina

Michael was also given permission to take the flight deck window cut outs of Air Canada's first 787-8.

Photo Courtesy of Michael Kurchina

This is where Michael turned a hobby into a 2nd career.  He got permission from Boeing, Spirit and Air Canada to receive the carbon fiber window cut outs from the 787s that are destined only for Air Canada on a regular basis which are turned into personalized and polished display plaques.  He produced a few for the Future of Flight as well as for pilots and executives at Air Canada including CEO Calin Rovinescu.

Michael receives regular shipments of the window cutouts from Spirit from the section 41 of Air Canada's Dreamliners via Fed Ex.  The section 41 has 18 window cutouts (9 on each side) thus he has the potential of receiving almost 1000 cutouts coming from Air Canada's 787 order (including if the carrier exercises its options).

When he receives them with a large cut out grove in the middle (from the diamond or carbide cutting tool) which he fills, coast with polyurethane and sands down.  Michael actually codes each panel with the line number, registration, fin number, serial number, variable number and the position on the actual aircraft that the cut out came from.

Photo courtesy of Michael Kurchina

Michael then produces the graphics which includes the aforementioned details on the graphics which is done on Fuji Metallic by Fotobox which is cut out and then laminated.  Michael cuts them out by hand.

Photo courtesy of Michael Kurchina

The cutouts are then mounted in a specially constructed jig.  Michael enlisted the help of Adam Mills who then sprays the window panels with automotive clear coat for protection. After it's dried the clear coat is sanded with three different grits of sandpaper (1000 dry, 1500 wet, and 3000 wet), two levels of polish and finally a rubber edge is then put on around the perimeter of the window cut out.

Michael can be reached at aviatorwindows@gmail.com with regards to interest in his window plaques.  As far as getting the cut outs from 787s other than those going to Air Canada, Michael says he would need permission from Boeing, Spirit (section 41 supplier) and the 787 customer. For now he's not planning for that but it may change if he adds staff and he sees a demand for these unique window plaques.

Here are some videos of how these window plaques are made:

787 Dreamliner 2015 mid year report

2015 so far is a good year for the 787.  Midway through 2015 Boeing has delivered 64 787 including 23 787-9.  In June Boeing delivered 10 787 - 6 787-9 and 4 787-8.  One the production front, the program loaded 64 different air frames to start final assembly and rolled out 63 by June 30th.

In terms of efficiency, the Everett lines were slightly more efficient at a ratio of 0.96 for the first half of 2015 versus North Charleston at 1.05.  June was not a very efficient month for North Charleston as its efficiency ratio in June was 2.0 versus Everett at 0.88.  For North Charleston the score was skewed by 4 deliveries made in May and only 2 in June while production rate was around 3 and 4 respectively.  In other words there was an extra delivery made in May and I suspect there will be 4 deliveries from North Charleston in July.

With quarter end there usually is a push to get as many airplanes delivered as possible but Boeing 787 deliveries from May to June were down from 13 to 10.  While still respectable, the 787 delivery number was hurt by continued issues with seat installations in airplanes destined for American Airlines and Etihad Airways.  Additionally, the change in production rate in Charleston may have slowed things a bit as Boeing is being careful with the break in rate at both 787 lines now that the surge line is winding down.

Speaking of the surge line, there are only 4 more 787 air frames that are scheduled to be built on that line.  Boeing will now slow that line down to a point where only 1 787 will be loaded each month from July to October (there were 3 loaded in June). With the 2 surge air frames now going to 40-26 and 88-30.  There will be an increase in the number of air frames on the Charleston flight line as there is a transition time where deliveries will have to catch up to the production rate.  This may not happen until the end of the summer.

For the last half of this year, expect that 787-9 deliveries will outnumber 787-8 deliveries which is expected as there are over 475 787-9 to be delivered against just under 200 787-8.  In fact June 2015 was the first month where 787-9 deliveries did outnumber 787-8 deliveries as mentioned earlier.  I expect this trend to more or less continue each month.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing donates first 787 to Centrair

Well I reported sometime ago that Boeing was going to donate ZA001 to a Japanese exhibitor.  Well the question of whom is solved and it is going to Centrair in Nagoya where parts of the 787 are constructed including the center wing boxes.  I expect the aircraft is expected to depart around June 21 or 22nd for Nagoya.  Here's the press release:

Centrair and Boeing are pleased to announce the donation of the first 787 Dreamliner ever made – a flight test airplane known as ZA001 – to Centrair.

35% of the Dreamliner's airframe structure – the main wing, forward fuselage and center wing box – is manufactured in the Greater Nagoya area and transported from Centrair to Boeing's final assembly plants in the U.S. in a specially converted 747-400 freighter known as the Dreamlifter. Centrair is the only airport in Japan served by the Dreamlifter, which means that ZA001 is coming back to the place that literally gave it wings.

Centrair is delighted that Boeing has chosen to donate the historically significant first test plane, ZA001, to Greater Nagoya, which plays such an important role in the manufacturing of the 787 Dreamliner. Boeing donated the third 787 test airplane, ZA003 to Seattle’s Museum of Flight in November 2014, and the second, ZA002, to Pima Air and Space Museum in Arizona in March this year.

ZA001 first took to the skies on December 15, 2009 from Paine Field, adjoining Boeing's Everett factory, watched by more than 12,000 people. The last flight of this airplane to Centrair is like a "homecoming" for ZA001.

ZA001 will be put on display at Centrair. Through the exhibition, Centrair expects to raise interest in aerospace – and contribute of this "next generation industry" for the Greater Nagoya region. The airport also hopes that it will spur the imagination of the young people of Japan and the next generation of aerospace pioneers.

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 4

Talk about pulling your nuts out of a fire at the last minute.  Airbus was on the verge of being embarrassed on their home soil until a last minute deal with Wizz Air for 110 A321neos saved their chestnuts.  There are two bright spots for Boeing: 1) they were able to hold their own with Airbus in terms of Air Show orders this year and apparently the Wizz Air order could have easily gone in Boeing's favor and 2) Boeing did beat Airbus on widebody orders.

However, everyone knows that this is just 4 days out of 365 and we have a whole other 6 months + coming up that would see some major fleet contests being decided including the Emirates decision widely expected in November.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)

Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)

Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)

Wizz Air – 110 x A321neo (MoU), 90 x A321neo (Purchase Rights)

VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR

Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 3

Day three bought more widebody orders for Boeing especially a nice shot in the arm for the 747-8.  Volga-Dnepr signed an MoU for 20 747-8F that will be partly purchased direct or acquired via lease.  Another shot in the arm came in the form of Ethiopian taking up 6 early build 787-8 airframes which I reported earlier but just confirmed today by the airline and Boeing.  This leaves Boeing with only 4 early build 787-8 left to sell:  LN4, LN5, LN17, & LN19 (the last 3 are GE-powered airplanes).

Airbus booked a couple of major MoU for the A320neo but that was about it.  Tomorrow should be the last day for any deals to be announced.  I'm still hoping that Boeing will announce the customers behind a couple of 787-9 deals that have so far remained unknown.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Ethiopian – 6 x 787-8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (LoI)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Unknown Customer – 1 x BBJ 737 Max 9 (Firm)

Volga-Dnepr – 20 x 747-8F (MoU)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

Synergy – 62 x A320neo (MoU)

Unknown Customer – 60 x A320neo (MoU)

VietJetAir – 6 x A321 (Firm)

ATR

Air Madagascar - 3 x ATR72-600
Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR72-600 (Firm)
Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 8 x ATR42-600 (8 Firm, 15 option)
Unknown Customer - 2 x ATR72-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 2

Boeing's order book exploded with a number of 737 orders that were announced today.  Airbus posted three orders, the largest coming from Korean Air for 30 x A321neo.  Still there are two more full days for all the commercial manufacturers to make a splash.  So far the only major manufacturer that has been quiet is Bombardier with the C-Series.  Coming on the heels of news that their aircraft is beating weight and performance specs, the company still hasn't posted a sale for the CS100 or CS300.

On the 787 front there were no new orders but there was an apparent cancellation by Aeroflot for the 22 787s that they ordered a few years back.  Apparently things have "changed" and they no longer needed the aircraft.  Given the political climate between the US and USS...er...Russia this is hardly a surprise.  No word on their orders for the A350 and if they're going to be cancelled.  I do believe that the slots that Aeroflot has given up can be quickly filled given the demand for near term delivery slots for the 787.

One bit of positive news is that ALC will be leasing 10 787-10 to Vietnam Airlines thus complementing their 787-9s.  I'm hoping that tomorrow will give us some positive 787 news but as always, watch this space or follow me on Twitter as I'd retweet information coming out of Paris.

Boeing

AerCap – 100 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737 MAX (LoI)

Korean Air – 30 x 737 Max 8 (LoI), 20 x 737 Max 8 (Options), 2 x 777-300ER (Firm)

Minsheng Financial Leasing – 30 x 737 Max and NG (MoU)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Ruili Airlines (through AVIC Leasing) – 30 x 737 Max (LoI)

SMBC Aviation Capital – 10 x 737 Max 8 (Firm)

Sriwijaya Air – 2x 737-900ER (Firm), 20 x 737-800 (Options)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo

Eva Air – 4 x A330-300ceo (MoU)

Korean Air – 30 x A321neo (Firm), 20 x A321neo (Options)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Peach Aviation – 3 x A320ceo (Frim)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR

Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)

Braathens Aviation – 5 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Cebu Pacific Air – 16 x ATR72-600 (Firm), 10 x ATR72-600 (Option)

Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

Paris Air Show 2015 - Day 1

With day 1 of the 2015 Paris Air Show in the bag, there were a few surprises but on the whole a typical first day at the bi-annual air show. Airbus, which usually saves up order announcements for the big summer air shows (Farnborough or Paris) went out to quick lead.

The surprise was Garuda Indonesia signing LoIs for 30 787-9s along with the 737Max and A350.  No one saw that one coming and it's nice to see the 787 picking up another major customer when this order is finalized.  Despite the A350 order from Garuda, the airlines widebody fleet is mostly the A330 with a few 777-300ERs.

Another surprise...Qatar's firm order for 10 x 777X.  Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research says that this is not the 777X order that Boeing had booked last week along with the 15 x 787 cancellations.  In fact he confirmed my suspicion that Etihad is the source of the 777X order as well as the 15 787 cancellations (though the order is attributable to an unknown customer, it is Etihad's).  Etihad may announce the 777X order at Paris but it currently unknown if they will.

Boeing

Eva Air – 5 x 777F (LoI)

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x 787-9, 30 x 737MAX (LoI)

Qatar Airways – 10 x 777-8X (Firm), 4 x 777F (Firm)

Airbus

ALC – 1 x A350-900, 1 x A321ceo, 3 x A320ceo

Garuda Indonesia – 30 x A350 (LoI)

GECAS – 60 x A320neo (Firm)

Saudi Arabian – 20 x A330-300, 30 x A320ceo (Firm)

ATR

Air New Zealand – 1 x ATR42-600 (Firm)

Japan Air Commuter – 9 x ATR 42-600 (8 Firm, 1 option)

BahamasAir – 3 x ATR 42-600, 2 x ATR 72-600 (Firm)

Binter Canarias – 6 x ATR 42-600 (Firm)

Bombardier

WestJet Encore – 6 x Q400

COMAC

Ping An Leasing – 50 x C919 (LoI)

Puren Airlines – 7 x C919, 7 x ARJ21 (LoI)

Embraer

Air Castle – 30 x ERJ-190E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option), 30 x ERJ-195E2 (15 Firm, 15 Option)

Colorful Guizhou Airlines – 17 x ERJ-190 (7 Firm, 10 Option)

Skywest – 8 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

United Airlines – 28 x ERJ-175 (Firm)

Superjet International

Yakutia Airlines – 3 x Superjet 100LR (Firm)

787 Flight testing, Paris 2015 preview, and 787 order cancellation

In a period of 4 days, June 10 to June 13th, the 787 program conducted 7 B-1 flights which is quite a few in a short span of time.  It does raise the question of how many 787s Boeing is planning to deliver by the end of this month.  Thus far in June Boeing has delivered 2 787-9s, a low number for sure.  But like in previous quarter ends, they usually end the quarter with a slew of deliveries and the 2nd quarter, 2015 doesn't look to be any different.  One thing that is interesting to note is that it appears North Charleston will deliver only 2 787s this month.  Given the flight test activity of the last few days, I believe that Boeing will ultimately deliver a total of 12 787s including the 2 already delivered.  This will include around 8 787-9 and 4 787-8.

Last week, we saw a cancellation for 15 787s.  We still don't know which model or the customer but Jon Ostrower tweeted a possible tantalizing clue:

Boeing nabs 10 777Xs. Customer count unchanged at six - someone topped up. Books cancellation for 15 787s, related? pic.twitter.com/hrV1g5hme4

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) June 11, 2015

If the customer who bought the 10 777X is the same as the one who cancelled the 787s then the only tow possibilities can be ANA and Etihad.  However this is where it gets interesting.

When Air Berlin cancelled it's order for 15 787-9s last year on September 26th, another order for 15 787-9 also was recorded on the same day.  It is widely rumored that there was transfer of the order from Air Berlin to Etihad which, given that Etihad partly owns Air Berlin, is unsurprising.  It now appears that Etihad may have traded in those 15 787s (the unidentified 787-9) for the 10 777X increasing their order to 35.  More information may be coming in the next few days during the Paris Air Show.

So speaking of the Paris Air Show, from some of the noise that I've been hearing, it may be quiet with regards to 787 orders though there may be an announcement by Qatar Airways regarding their 787 options of which they have 30.  Also I expect that the some of the unidentified customers for the 787 will be made public including Ethiopian's top up order for 6 787s coming from the early build 787s that are currently stored at Everett. Hainan's 30 aircraft order for the 787-9 should also be made public during the coming week.  I'll be staying on top of the news coming from Le Bourget during the week and updating this blog as the news comes out....unless I'm a sleep.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer