787 Flight testing, Paris 2015 preview, and 787 order cancellation

In a period of 4 days, June 10 to June 13th, the 787 program conducted 7 B-1 flights which is quite a few in a short span of time.  It does raise the question of how many 787s Boeing is planning to deliver by the end of this month.  Thus far in June Boeing has delivered 2 787-9s, a low number for sure.  But like in previous quarter ends, they usually end the quarter with a slew of deliveries and the 2nd quarter, 2015 doesn't look to be any different.  One thing that is interesting to note is that it appears North Charleston will deliver only 2 787s this month.  Given the flight test activity of the last few days, I believe that Boeing will ultimately deliver a total of 12 787s including the 2 already delivered.  This will include around 8 787-9 and 4 787-8.

Last week, we saw a cancellation for 15 787s.  We still don't know which model or the customer but Jon Ostrower tweeted a possible tantalizing clue:

Boeing nabs 10 777Xs. Customer count unchanged at six - someone topped up. Books cancellation for 15 787s, related? pic.twitter.com/hrV1g5hme4

— Jon Ostrower (@jonostrower) June 11, 2015

If the customer who bought the 10 777X is the same as the one who cancelled the 787s then the only tow possibilities can be ANA and Etihad.  However this is where it gets interesting.

When Air Berlin cancelled it's order for 15 787-9s last year on September 26th, another order for 15 787-9 also was recorded on the same day.  It is widely rumored that there was transfer of the order from Air Berlin to Etihad which, given that Etihad partly owns Air Berlin, is unsurprising.  It now appears that Etihad may have traded in those 15 787s (the unidentified 787-9) for the 10 777X increasing their order to 35.  More information may be coming in the next few days during the Paris Air Show.

So speaking of the Paris Air Show, from some of the noise that I've been hearing, it may be quiet with regards to 787 orders though there may be an announcement by Qatar Airways regarding their 787 options of which they have 30.  Also I expect that the some of the unidentified customers for the 787 will be made public including Ethiopian's top up order for 6 787s coming from the early build 787s that are currently stored at Everett. Hainan's 30 aircraft order for the 787-9 should also be made public during the coming week.  I'll be staying on top of the news coming from Le Bourget during the week and updating this blog as the news comes out....unless I'm a sleep.

787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer
2015 Projected Operator Deliveries
2015 Projected Customer Deliveries

787 Build Location By Operator 
787 Build Location By Customer

Boeing loses order of 15 787s

Boeing lost an order of 15 787s. The cancellation occurred during the last week and maybe tied to a simultaneous order of 10 777s.  It is not known who cancelled the order but the list of suspects include the following:

Customer Name	Customer Code	Model	Ordered	Delivered	Undelivered
AerCap	ILF	787-9	48	2	46
Aeroflot	ARO	787-8	22	0	22
Air Canada	ACN	787-9	29	0	29
Air China	BEJ	787-9	15	0	15
Air France-KLM Group	FXN	787-9	25	0	25
ALC	HAZ	787-9	15	0	15
All Nippon Airways	ANA	787-9	44	4	40
American Airlines	AAL	787-9	22	0	22
British Airways	BAB	787-9	22	0	22
CIT Leasing Corporation	TCI	787-9	16	0	16
Delta Air Lines	DAL	787-8	18	0	18
Etihad Airways	ETI	787-9	41	3	38
Gulf Air	GUL	787-8	16	0	16
Japan Airlines	JAL	787-9	20	1	19
Unidentified Customer(s)	UNK	787-9	15	0	15
Unidentified Customer(s)	UNK	787-9	24	0	24

Additionally there are two unknown customers who placed orders of 15 and 24 respectively.  This list doesn't include those orders for the 787-10 only outstanding orders for the -8 or -9.  The unknown customer for the 15 787-9 is widely believed to be Etihad as it appeared at the same time as the Air Berlin cancellation of their 787 order.  The second unknown customer order (for 24) was added to the order book very recently.

I've bold the more likely candidates who cancelled this order.  We'll know who the culprit is when Boeing releases it's month end  order and delivery report in the first week of July.  Boeing did convert an order of 10 787s for United into 10 777-300ERs and are looking to add more 777 orders to the book to bridge the production gap between the 777 classics and the 777X.  They certainly don't mind doing it at the expense of the 787 as it does free up more production slots for customers looking to add that airplane to their fleet but can't get the required delivery slots.  In the long run it could be win-win for both programs.

GE powered 787-9 receives Amended Type Certificate clearing way for first delivery next week.

The FAA granted Boeing the amended type certificate for the GE powered version of the 787-9 clearing the way for deliveries to begin later next week with the first aircraft going to United Airlines.  That delivery should occur in the middle to late next week.

Boeing is slowly ramping up 787-9 production this year and is on track to deliver 10 to 12 this year though I'm in favor of the higher number.  The airplanes that are coming off the production line still have to go through some change incorporation at the EMC but I believe this should start to tail off by the middle of the fourth quarter (November).  2015 might prove to be a big year for deliveries of the larger 787 model.  I believe that Boeing can deliver around 50 to 55 787-9 which would be almost 50% of their 2015 deliveries.  If they are able to accomplish that coupled with a successful drive to reduce production and assembly costs, then the 787-9 can be extremely profitable for Boeing in 2015.

It could also help if Boeing can convert more customers from the 787-8 to either the 787-9 and/or the 787-10.  Already some airlines are getting out the 787-8 like Air Berlin which still has to confirm their conversion from the -8 to the -9.  This can only help the overall profitability of the 787 program in the long run.  Yesterday, Boeing showed a cancellation of 5 787s from it's weekly order report.  Speculation immediately fell on Lion Air/Batik as the source as they have been talking about converting that order into 10 737s.  There was also an unidentified order for 10 737s posted along with the cancellation thus Lion Air does seem to be the logical choice.

Thus far in August, Boeing has delivered 8 787s but I do expect 5 more to be delivered in the next 9 days. I'll give a fuller report at the end of the month along with a preview of September's deliveries around Labor Day.
787 Full Production Table

787 Current Production Table

Delivered 787 List

787 Production and Delivery Trends

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

Current 787 Operators

Total 787 Deliveries By Customer

2014 Projected 787 Deliveries

787-9 Flight Testing Tracker

787 test flight fleet done

On the eve of the Paris Air Show, James Albaugh. President of Boeing Commercial aircraft, revealed that Boeing is done with 97% of the required testing on the Trent 1000 powered and that the Boeing test flight fleet ZA001- ZA006 would not be flying for certification purposes. Boeing still has to complete SROV activities in Japan early next month as well as start ETOPs/F&R testing using ZA102 (LN9) for the Trent-1000 engines.

It is unclear which GEnx powered 787 will be used to conduct the ETOPS/F&R testing for the GEnx version of the 787 though ZA177 a GE powered 787 is still in change incorporation and maybe a possible candidate to conduct those tests around August or September depending on the progress of its change incorporation. If not then the only option is for ZA005 or ZA006 to conduct those tests.

ZA102 was supposed to start F&R testing in early June but as of today it still has no started and now Boeing is saying late June for the start of testing. I have no word from sources as to the actual start date thus far.

Even though Boeing's 787 test flight fleet certification duties are over, their flight testing duties are on going with ZA004 undertaking NAMS (nautical air mile) testing with the package "B" Trent 1000 engines. ZA003 is testing the hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) which, it is hoped, will reduce drag by delaying the transition of laminar air flow over the horizontal tail plane to turbulent air flow. If these tests are successful, then it is planned to introduce this system on the HTP for the 787-9 and possibly to the 787-8 as well. ZA001 will fly to Paris for the air show then on to Warsaw and Berlin for marketing related activities with Air Berlin and LOT. As mentioned earlier, ZA002 will be dispatched Japan for Service Ready Operational Validation Testing.

Below is the schedule for the SROV tests with ANA in Japan:

Flight 1 LV. SEA 7-3-11 5AM ARR. HND 7-4-11 6:30AM
Flight 2 LV. HND 7-5-11 6:30AM ARR. ITM 7-5-11 7:30AM
Flight 3 LV. ITM 7-5-11 11:30AM ARR. HND 7-5-11 12:30AM
Flight 4 LV. HND 7-6-11 6:30AM ARR. KIX 7-6-11 8:00AM
Flight 5 LV. KIX 7-6-11 12:00PM ARR. HND 7-6-11 1:30PM
Flight 6 LV. HND 7-7-11 6:00AM ARR. OKJ 7-7-11 7:30AM
Flight 7 LV. OKJ 7-7-11 11:00AM ARR. HND 7-7-11 12:30PM
Flight 8 LV. HND 7-7-11 3:00PM ARR. HIJ 7-7-11 5:00PM
Flight 9 LV. HIJ 7-7-11 7:00PM ARR. HND 7-7-22 8:30PM
Flight 10 LV. HND 7-9-11 1:00PM ARR. SEA 7-9-11 6:30AM

End of August and the 787 summertime blues

Well we're quickly approaching the end of August, the end of summer and hopefully the end of a period that Boeing would like to forget. If it weren't for the side of body issue the 787 would be flying around Boeing Field now for about two months. Now we have to wait about another three month for that happen (if Flightblogger is correct) and another month from now to hear Boeing's revised schedule. Too much is now riding on this for them to get it wrong. So with that in mind let's try and look ahead to what's yet to come.

As some of you may know, Boeing big wigs flew into Everett last week from Chicago and I believe the big topic of conversation was the 787. But I am hearing that Scott Carson might be retiring at the end of this year. Coincidence or not we'll see but right now it's just a rumor. I wonder if it's another coincidence that Boeing filed building permits today for the North Charleston site. Me thinks not! Boeing needs the second line to recover the lost ground in 787 production so the second line is inevitable (I said so a year ago) and I think Boeing will add additional autoclave capabilities to the 2nd line. The question will be where will the 2nd line go? At this point, if I'm a betting man it will be North Charleston but that will hinge on the vote by Boeing Charleston workers weather to decertify its union on Sept. 10th. If it is decertified then I think North Charleston is a shoo in despite what concessions Washington State and the IAM would give to Boeing. Boeing needs to have uninterrupted production if they are to catch up with deliveries. IAM going out on strike every 3 to 4 years will only get in the way of that.

Now articles are out that Air Berlin is considering cancelling it's order for 25 787-8s whether this is a bluff to wring out more concessions from Boeing is unclear though it sounds like Air Berlin is making an issue of the delays as a cornerstone of their arguments. That's a little surprising as they would be grateful for the delays as Air Berlin has a lot of capacity right now and they would probably need to add capacity in the future after the world economy recovers and air travel with it.

Now let's see what's happening on the tarmac at Everett. Well not too much there there is a big pup tent in the middle of the Boeing flight line where several of the 787 that will be in line for the fix will receive it. Out on the flight line there are 4 787s: LN2 (in ANA livery), ZY998 the fatigue air frame, LN6 and another test flight 787 in the Boeing 787 livery which I suspect may be LN 5. I think LN 4 is probably in 40-26 and LN 3 is still in 40-22 and LN 1 in the paint shop. That means that LN 7 and LN 8 probably have made or will make a line move soon to clear way to start final assembly on LN 9. The parts of this aircraft are in Everett.

Guy Norris also reported that tests are still going on on LN 2 on the Boeing flightline. He also has a great article on Boeing's moves in Charleston as well.

Guy's August 25 787 update
Guy's Boeing-Charleston Article
Air Berlin Mulls 787 Cancellation

Lastly, is Wall Street turning bullish on Boeing and specifically the 787? According to Scott Hamilton at Leeham & Co. a couple of Wall Street analyst now have a brighter outlook on the 787.

Scott's article on 787 forward loss.