Monday, August 24, 2015

Prospective 787 customers and August production and delivery review

On the heels of QANTAS' return to the 787 order book, I thought it would be good to review other potential 787 orders that may firm up by year end.  This is by no means an exhaustive list but the more visible ones.

QANTAS – They still have 15 options (delivery slots with a delivery date) and 30 purchase rights (no specific delivery date).  QANTAS exercised the 5 options for delivery from 2017 to 2019.  The remaining 15 options are for 787-9 delivery slots from 2020 to 2021 while the 30 rights are for delivery from 2021 to 2025.  As I had mentioned previously, I expect that QANTAS will take a piecemeal approach to exercising these options and rights as they come due depending on business conditions and new route development plans.

Emirates - This order has been rumored to be going Boeing's way though Tim Clark has poured called water on these rumors by saying that he 787 doesn't have enough thrust to operate without payload restriction in Dubai hot and arrid environment.  Still I do expect that Emirates will pull the trigger on an order comprising of 787-9 and 787-10 at the Dubai Air Show during November 8th through 12th.

Qatar Airways - Qatar has taken delivery of 22 out of 30 787-8s that they had ordered.  They will receive the remainder of their order of 8 aircraft by the end of the second quarter of 2016.  They still do have 30 options left and I do believe that they will exercise them also for a combination of 787-9s.  I'm not sure if they will be in for the 787-10 given Qatar's 787-8 experience with the Charleston team and the 787-10 will be built exclusively in Charleston.

El-Al - The Israeli airline announced that they will be taking on 15 787-8 and 787-9 through a mixture of direct purchases from Boeing as well as leases.  They also will have 13 787 options for future growth.  This order should be firmed up in the next few weeks.

Hainan Airlines – They have said that they are committing to ordering 30 787-9s with deliveries starting in 2021 but this order has yet to appear on Boeing’s order and delivery web site. They may be the unidentified customer that had ordered 30 787-9 in two separate tranches (24 and 6).  Interestingly, there are 2 787-9 on the 787 firing order that are being leased to Hainan.  These airplanes should be delivered next year.

Phillipine Airlines – They’re looking to increase their widebody fleet and are looking at an order of 6 A350s or 787s.  Word is that the A350 has the edge in this contest.

Turkish Airlines – Turkish Airlines has been saying that they are evaluating the 787 for years but have yet to announce a decision.  The airline has bought form both Boeing and Airbus so this order, when it does come, can go either way.

If any readers have any other information on potential orders that are coming up or that would be announced, please feel free to add it to the comments section.

Production and Deliveries

As we’re getting closer to the end of August, the delivery schedule for the remainder of the month is becoming clearer.  Boeing has delivered 6 787s thus far but expects to deliver 8 aircraft in the next one week.  Four of these airplanes still have yet to conduct their C-1 customer acceptance flights which all should be flown tomorrow, August 25th

LN332-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN333-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN334-C1-8/25, Del-8/31
LN335-C1-8/25, Del-8/28

At the end of the month I expect that Boeing would have delivered 14 787; 6 787-8 and 8 787-9, 2 787-8 for American, 2 787-9 each for Vietnam Airlines and AerCap (leased to LAN), 1 787-9 each for Air Canada, Air New Zealand, ANA, and United.  Finally 1 787-8 will be delivered each to AerCap (leased to Thai), BBJ (Sultan of Brunei), Scoot, and CIT (leased to Aeromexico).

If the remaining 8 deliveries occur then Boeing would have 14 for August, 90 for 2015 and 318 program deliveries.  That would mean that Boeing would need to deliver an average of 7.5 787s per month for the remainder of the year in order to meet its 2015 delivery goal of at least 120 787s.  I believe they can deliver 135 by year end surpassing their goal by 12.5%.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

QANTAS finally commits to 787, Boeing set to deliver 13 787s by end of August

QANTAS 787-9

After years of struggling to return to profitability, Australian carrier, QANTAS, has returned to the black and has started ordering the 787.  Actually QANTAS had the 787-9 on order but cancelled an order for 35 aircraft in 2012 when their financial situation was bleak.  They retained the 787-8 order for Jetstar (14 aircraft) as well as retained the 20 options and 30 purchase rights at the time of the cancellation.  The purcahse rights have no production slots assigned to them whereas the options do.  QANTAS will exercise the options first as the expiration dates come due.

The carrier ordered 8 787-9, 3 of which are conversion of 3 Jetstar 787-8 to 787-9, and exercised 5 options.  The first four are to arrive between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2018 while the second set of four will arrive between July 1, 2018 and June 30, 2019.  These 8 aircraft will replace 5 747-400.  QANTAS is not reducing overall fleet capacity but the use of the smaller 787-9 will give the airline more flexibility to down-gauge routes that are currently using the 747-400.  Jetstar's 11th 787 is already on the flightline and should be delivered next month.

QANTAS still retains 15 options and 30 rights for any model 787, thus I do see that the 787-10 can very well be in QANTAS' future.  The replacement strategy seems to be to only exercise the rights/options just before they are about to expire thus taking advantage of long term fleet and route planning at QANTAS as they replace the 747s.

ANA 787-9 ZB411 (LN329, JA872A)
In other 787 news, Boeing is looking to deliver 13 total 787s in August (I was predicting 15 earlier but 2 were pushed to early September).  3 aircraft (one each for ANA (787-9), CIT/Aeromexico (787-8), and Air New Zealand (787-9) have had their customer flights and should be delivered in the next week.  Air New Zealand will be receiving ZB001, the first 787-9 produced, after the aircraft had undergone a complete refurbishment at the conclusion of the 787-9 test program.  5 more 787s are awaiting their customer flights including one each for Air Canada (787-9), American Airlines (787-8), Scoot (787-8), United Airlines (787-9) and Vietnam Airlines (787-9).  If all the deliveries are made this month, Boeing would have delivered 13 in August, 89 through the first 8 months of 2015 and 317 since program deliveries began almost 4 years ago.

Lastly, ZB412 (LN345, JA873A) otherwise known as the "Star Wars" jet has been completed.  According to plans, this aircraft should have it's first flight on August 26th and then flown to Everett on August 31st where it will be painted in the special Star Wars scheme.  There is to be a special ceremony at the Future of Flight by ANA (I wonder if any of the cast of the new Star Wars movie will be there) around September 12th/13th.  The airplane will return to Charleston on September 14th to continue delivery preparations which should take place around September 29th.  The aircraft will be pressed into ANA service around October 16th.

787 Full Production Table

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Planned first flight, customer flight and delivery dates for 787 deliveries in August

Here are the planned B1, C1 and delivery dates for the 787s that are projected to be handed over to customers this month.  This list, obviously, is subject to change and some deliveries may be pushed into September depending on flight testing progress and the need for additional engineering or customer flights.

LN126-C1-8/18, Del-8/25 
LN329-C1-8/19, Del-8/26 
LN330-C1-8/17, Del-8/24 
LN332-B1-8/12, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN333-B1-8/14, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN334-B1-8/13, C1-8/25, Del-8/31 
LN335-C1-8/21, Del-8/28 
LN336-B1-8/13, C1-8/21, Del-8/28 

787 Full Production Table