Showing posts with label Iran Air. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran Air. Show all posts

Saturday, October 1, 2016

787 orders may be on the rebound with Middle Eastern Orders

After 9 months of lackluster 787 order activity, Boeing may be seeing some activity mainly coming from Middle Eastern customers.  To date Boeing has recorded 19 net new 787 orders this year which is below their project 787 order goal of about 100.

That said, it seems that there are several deals in the hopper that may yield some very promising results.  As mentioned before these deals are coming from the Middle East but these deals may be larger than originally thought.

Saudia announced this week that they are purchasing 15 777-300ER and 13 787s.  Immediately speculation was that this 787 was an order that is on Boeing's books as an unidentified 787-9 order posted on Dec. 5, 2008.  I have not been able to confirm that as of yet.  However a Twitter user from Saudi Arabia has posted some interesting tidbits about the Saudi order:


Translated (via Google Translate) it says:

"According to what I received from my sources in the "Arabia" that there are additional to the deal for the Boeing 787-10 will be signed soon, the number of 13 aircraft"

On September 28th this Tweet came out:




Translated it says:
"Agreement "Saudi Arabia" of the new acquisitions on the 63 aircraft included 13 Boeing 787s, I received a little while ago that the 10 planes wold be 787-10 and the other three 787-9"
 Let's put this all in perspective.  Saudia had an initial order of 8 787-9s of which 4 have been delivered and the remaining 4 will be delivered next year. But according to this table below, Saudia should receive 7 787s next year.  Currently I only show four but there is an order from the Saudi Ministry of Finance for 3 787-9 to be delivered in 2017.



The 3 787-9 for Saudi Ministry of Finance has been on the firing order for some time and looking at the Saudia Airlines fleet table above for the future fleet it shows the 787s for the airline coming from the Saudi Ministry of Finance.  Thus it seems the 13 unidentified orders are for the Saudi Ministry of Finance of which 3 will be 787-9 that will be delivered next year along with 4 direct purchased 787-9.  Saudia (via the Saudi Ministry of Finance) will receive the 787-10 starting in 2018.  I believe there may be more clarity on this issue when Boeing releases its monthly order and delivery report for September.

The other big news was broken by Bloomberg was regarding Qatar Airways' widebody order with Boeing.  This is a new order that has not hit the order book as of yet.  It was supposed to be announced at Farnborough this year but was delayed by the Qatari government due to the stalled F-15 deal with Washington.  U-Turn Al has been upset with Airbus for their delays on the A320neo and the A350 thus it appears that Boeing will be benefiting from Airbus' screw up.  One has to wonder if there is a 737MAX order in there as well as rumored.

Bloomberg is reporting that the talks are for at least 30 777 and 787 no word on how many of each of which sub-type.  Now Qatar Airways has said that they intend to exercise the 30 787 options and I had expected them to do that at Farnborough this year.  I still believe that they will exercise all 30 for a mix of 787-9 and 787-10 as well as take additional 777s.  Thus the order that Bloomberg refers to may be larger than 30 and I believe it may be as much as 45 to 50 total aircraft of which 30 are 787s and 15 to 20 are 777.

Another transaction that is hotly anticipated is the Emirates decision between the 787 and the A350-900.  The decision has been dragged out for a long time but word is that it should come by the end of the year.There aren't really any big showy air shows scheduled over the 4th quarter so we'll see how this one is announced but I'm still thinking that Boeing is the odds on favorite to walk away with the order.  I do think it would be a mixture of 787-9 and 787-10.  The 787-10 give Emirates the ability to fly high density medium haul routes like to India and points east of India as well to some high density routes to eastern Europe where a 777 or an A380 are too many seats.  I can see them taking 30 or so 787-9s and 45 787-10.

While Boeing has permission to sell aircraft to Iran Air, it appears that the discussions have revolved around supplying the main Iranian carrier with 737s and 777s and possibly some 747-8Is.  While the 787 may have been ruled out for Iran Air there are private Iranian airlines that may have interest in the 787 including Mahan Air.  A 787 order from Iranian airlines may not come until next year at the earliest.

And there is the order for 8 787-9 from Pakistan International Airlines which is awaiting final approval from, I believe, the Government of Pakistan.  We can possibly see this order on Boeing's order book by the end of the year.

Lastly, I reported that Turkish Airlines was about to finalize an order for the 787 and 777X.  As of right now that order is on hold as the Turkish government is re-prioritizing finances and Turkish Airlines fleet renewal is not a priority it seems.  Turkish Airlines was going to order the 787-9 and 777-9 as part of their widebody modernization program.  Apparently the delivery of the remaining 777-300ERs are also on hold.  I believe that once Turkish Airlines has righted the ship financially they will be in a position to place the order with Boeing.
Posted by Uresh at 9:26 PM 4 comments
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Thursday, June 23, 2016

Boeing-Iran deal....no 787

A little more detail came out regarding the proposed commercial aircraft deal between Boeing and Iran.  There are no 787s in the deal but here is the breakout:

Direct purchase:
4 x 747-8I
15 x 777-9
15 x 777-300ER
6 x 737 NG
40 x 737MAX

Lease:
29 x 737 NG

In an unrelated note to follow up my previous blog post.  ZB416 (LN 447, JA880A) will fly its C-1 flight on July 21st after returning from Farnborough.  The aircraft is due to be delivered on July 26th.  Thus it appears Boeing will deliver 14 787s this month, not 15.
Posted by Uresh at 7:12 PM 1 comments
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Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Boeing, Iran Air signs a MoU; Boeing starts practices for the 787 demonstration at Farnborough

Number
Testing Complete2
To be assembled in Everett133
To be assembled in Charleston92
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly10
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work1
Change Incorporation and Re-Work6
Pre-Flight Prep11
Production Testing11
Non Customer Flight Tests1
Ready for Delivery4
Donation3
Delivered422
TOTAL702


Boeing confirmed that they have signed an MoU to supply commercial aircraft to Iranian airlines.  The confirmation is understandably short on specifics since any deal has to go through the US Treasury for approvals as well as the Iranian government.  According to news reports the order involves at least 100 aircraft with some reports that it's a mix of 737s and 777-300ERs though there was one report that said the order may also involve 747-8Is.  Interestingly this order is supposedly for flag carrier Iran Air.  There is no word on aircraft orders for other Iranian airlines and more importantly, the media reports makes no mention of 787s being part of the MoU even though Boeing reportedly offered the aircraft.  It doesn't necessarily mean that it won't be ordered.

It's hard to get excited about this order as there are still many complications and steps before we see a 787 in Iran Air colors rolling out of the paint hangar, namely US government approval, continued political tension between the two countries, current US sanctions which places restrictions on financing and banking activity with Iran and needed in order to effectuate the final sale and delivery. Consequently, finalization of any Boeing deal with Iranian airlines will take several months to be completed, perhaps not until early next year.

Deliveries are progressing this month with 5 delivered through yesterday, June 21st.  Boeing is still on track to deliver 14 to 15 787s this month.  It could hit 15 if  they deliver ZD004 (LN 12, ET-ATL) to Ethiopian (long pole in the tent here is financing of delivery payment) and ZB416 (LN 416, JA880A).  The later has started flight practicing the aerial demonstration that it will perform at Farnborough next month.  The practice is taking place at Grant County Airport in Moses Lake.  I'm not sure if it will be delivered prior to month end or after the air show.  Right now, my latest intelligence has it being delivered by the end of this month but it has had its customer flight but I'll try to find out if the schedule has moved.  If you can't make it to Farnborough this year, here's video shot yesterday by #Avgeek OwnsGermany.

Video by OwnsGermany on You Tube

With the start of the major air show less than a month away There are a number of unidentified orders that will probably be announced including one UFO order that is already known (China Eastern Airlines for 15 787-9s).  

Qatar Airways is expected to take its 30th and final 787-8 on July 13th which is during the Farnborough Air Show even though its been ready for some weeks now.  I think the delivery was deliberately pushed to time with a possible air show announcement with Boeing.  My guess is that Qatar will announce the exercise of the 30 787 options at that time to coincide with the delivery of 787-8 number 30.

Lastly,  Boeing started final assembly on American Airlines's first 787-9 5 days ago on June 17th and yesterday they started final assembly on the first of 2 787-8s for Uzbekistan Airways.  There should be two more deliveries today, a 787-9 each to Air China (ZB49, LN 435, B-7879) and British Airways (ZB372, LN 442, G-ZBKK).  There are still 6 aircraft that have to have there C-1 flights if they're to be delivered this month.  Those flights, per the most current information that I have, should be conducted tomorrow and Friday.

787 Full Production Table
Posted by Uresh at 12:56 PM 1 comments
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