Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Eva Air orders 18 787-10 firm + 6 787-10 options

Eva Air finalized an order for up to 24 787-10.  The order includes 18 firm 787-10 and 6 options.  In addition the order announcement stated Eva will take 2 additional 777-300ERs.

This was an order that Eva announced months ago but was finalized this month.  Please see Boeing's press release below:

Boeing, EVA Airways Finalize Taiwan's Largest Ever Commercial Airplane Purchase

Deal includes up to 24 787-10 Dreamliners and two 777-300ERs

EVA joins 787-10 launch customer airline group, will be first Taiwanese carrier to operate Dreamliner

SEATTLE, Nov. 24, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE:BA] and EVA Airways today finalized a historic order for up to 24 787-10 Dreamliners and two 777-300ER (Extended Range) jetliners. The order, valued at more than $8 billion at current list prices, marks the largest single commercial airplane purchase in Taiwan aviation.
"EVA participated in development of the Boeing 777-300ER and became a launch customer in 2005," said EVA President Austin Cheng. "From that first delivery through today, we operate 22 of these high-performance long-haul aircraft. We believe the future of the airline industry will be built on fuel efficiency and cabin comfort. The new Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner's high fuel efficiency and long-range flying capabilities meets these requirements and our operational needs. These planes will support our growth well into the future."
EVA Airways becomes the newest Dreamliner customer and will join the 787-10 launch customer team as one of the first airlines in the world to introduce the newest member of the 787 Dreamliner family.
"We are honored to welcome EVA Airways as Boeing's newest member of the 787-10 Dreamliner launch customer group," said Boeing Commercial Airplanes President and CEO Ray Conner. "For many years, EVA Air has been pushing the boundaries of aviation. Ten years ago, EVA was a launch customer for the 777-300ER. With today's order, Boeing is proud to continue playing an integral role in revolutionizing Taiwan's aviation history as EVA becomes one of the first customers around the world to operate the 787-10."
EVA Airways continues to modernize its long-haul fleet to replace aging aircraft and plans to grow its fleet to more than 100 units by 2020. These new 787-10 Dreamliners will allow the airline to expand into new markets. They will be deployed on medium-range and long-haul flights and will be operated in tandem with the 777-300ERs to form the backbone of EVA Airways' fleet.
EVA Airways currently operates more than 40 Boeing airplanes and with today's order, the airline's backlog will increase to 37 airplanes, which includes fourteen 777-300ERs, five 777 Freighters and eighteen 787-10s. 
EVA Airways' 777-300ER fleet continues to grow and the carrier is the world's eighth largest 777-300ER operator in the world and fourth largest in Asia.
The 787-10 will be the third and longest member of the super-efficient 787 family. With its greater passenger and cargo capacity, robust range and passenger-pleasing features, the 787-10 will complement EVA's Boeing widebody fleet while setting a new benchmark for fuel efficiency and operating economics.
The 787-10 will be 25 percent better in fuel and emissions than the airplanes it replaces and more than 10 percent better than anything offered by the competition for the future.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Boeing delivers 350th 787

Today Boeing reached 350 787 deliveries when they delivered 2 787-9, one each to British Airways and ANA.  It is unknown which delivery allowed Boeing to hit that milestone but a little four years after program deliveries began Boeing seems to have this program under better management though financial loses still plague the 787.

The two aircraft that were delivered today are: ZB365 (LN 361, G-ZBKD) for British Airways and ZB413 (LN 370, JA875A) for ANA.  Both should flyaway tomorrow, November 24th.  Boeing has delivered 10 787s this month (with another 4 planned deliveries yet to come) and 122 year to date.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

2016 Look Ahead for the 787 Deliveries

Projected 2016 Deliveries (Operator)Expected Total DeliveriesExpected 787-8 DeliveriesExpected 787-9 Deliveries
Air Austral220
Air Canada10010
Air China707
Air Europa550
Air France101
Air India220
Air New Zealand303
American Airlines844
British Airways11011
Crystal Air110
Ethiopian Airlines440
Etihad Airways505
Hainan Airlines808
Japan Airlines734
KLM - Royal Dutch Airlines606
Norwegian Air International Ltd404
Qatar Airways550
Royal Air Maroc330
Royal Jordanian110
Saudi Arabian Airlines303
Scoot Pte Ltd220
United Airlines505
Uzbekistan Airways220
Vietnam Airlines505
Virgin Atlantic Airways404
Xiamen Airlines101

With 2015 winding up, this is a good time to look ahead to production and delivery of the 787 in 2016.

According to sources, Boeing should deliver 140 787s including 7 early build 787s in 2016. Next year will see many changes for the 787 program not the least of which is the break of rate from 10/month to 12/month. Given that 133 787s will be new builds this indicates that the increase in production rate will allow Boeing to deliver 13 more 787s in 2016.  

In 2015 we started seeing the 787-9 deliveries outpacing those of the 787-8.  In 2016 the number 787-9 deliveries should out deliver the 787-8 by a margin of 2.68:1, 102 787-9 should be delivered vs. only 38 787-8s.

Another milestone that should take place by the end of 2016 is the start of 787-10 production.  The first 787-10 test aircraft should load into position 1A in Charleston late in the 4th quarter of 2016.  In order to protect current 787 production from any unforeseen assembly issues, Boeing will reallocate 787-8 and 787-9 production slots from Charleston to Everett.  These slots will include aircraft that will enter final assembly before loading of ZC001 (LN528) as well as after it has started final assembly.  The extra margin will allow Boeing to conduct tests inside the assembly building as well without disrupting production of customer aircraft.  I anticipate that the first 787-10 aircraft should roll out during the 1st quarter 2017.


Obviously the big deal for the 787 program is the increase in production.  Right now Everett is producing 5-6 aircraft per month while Charleston is between 4-5.  Between the two, Boeing is producing 10/month.  By March 2016 both production facilities will be starting to produce at 6/month with the delivery rate increasing in May 2016 as can be seen in the table above and below. Curiously, August shows only 7 deliveries which may be due to customer readiness to take delivery during that time of the year.  It appears that deliveries in September will make up for the low August delivery count.  The 787 program should end 2016 on a strong delivery note with 34 projected deliveries.

There will be 787 operators who will receive their first 787 in 2016.  They are: Air Austral, Air China, Air Europa, Air France, Crystal Air and Uzbekistan Airways. The operators who will be receiving their 1st 787-9 are Aeromexico, Air China, Air France, American Airlines, Hainan Airlines, Norwegian, Thomson, and Xiamen.

Projected Delivery Monthly Breakout:


Here are charts based on the table above:

Looking at the first table one can't help but noticing that a few carriers will be getting a large number of deliveries.  Air Canada will be inducting 10 787-9, ANA will take 12 787-9 as well as their last 787-8, British Airways will receive 11 787-9s and American Airlines will take charge of 4 787-8 and 4 787-9s.  Chinese carrier Hainan will also take 8 aircraft, all 787-9s.

As with 2015, I'll be keeping track of the 787 delivery progress through 2016 among other things related to the 787 particularly the 787-10 development.

787 Full Production Table