May 787 Delivery Predictions

Here is a list of 787s that I expect to be delivered during the remainder of this month. Please note that the deliveries to the Chinese carriers are contingent upon the aircraft obtaining its airworthiness certificate from Chinese civil aviation authorities but booth China Southern and Hainan have said they expect their deliveries later this month.

Air India - ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) - so far had 5 test flights and may have one more before being delivered

Hainan - 2 787 from Charleston - ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) & ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) pending certification and customer test flights

China Southern - ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) pending certification and customer test flights

JAL - ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) had three test flights thus far, may have one more to do

Thomson Airways - ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) - Thomson's first 787 has had 5 test flights thus far.

These six together with the two already delivered would allow Boeing to claim 8 deliveries in May which would be a very healthy re-start to deliveries after three and a half months of growing inventory at Everett and Charleston.

 

Upcoming 787 deliveries

Now that the battery modifications are underway Boeing is gearing up to re-start deliveries to customers.

First up will be deliveries to ANA and LOT Polish Airlines.  ANA (ZA512, LN 83, JA818A) should deliver tomorrow 5/13/2013 (flyaway the next day) while LOT Polish (ZA272, LN 86, SP-LRC) should deliver the following day on 5/14/2013 (flyaway the next day).

Thomson Airways is expecting their first 787 (ZA317, LN 92, G-TUIA) on 5/30/2013 with the second (ZA318, LN 94, G-TUIB) to follow on 6/2/2013.

JAL can also take delivery this week of ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) though I haven't heard about a delivery date.

Hainan and China Southern could take their first 787s as early as the end of this month but that could easily slip into June since the delivery is waiting on Chinese aviation authorities certifying the 787 for use by Chinese carriers.

British Airways is looking to take delivery within the next few weeks but it does look like that they'll pick up their first 787s next month.

 

787 production update

As we approach the Holiday week, Boeing will be going into a slow down mode as is the custom around this time of the year.  There have been moves of late which I'll highlight here.

Boeing has moved out ZA274 (LN 88, SP-LRE) for LOT and ZA184 (LN 89, JA830J) for Japan Airlines.  They moved ZA513 (LN97, JA819A) for ANA into the body-wing join in 40-24 to start final assembly.  This is the last aircraft that will start final assembly in 2012. I expect it to be delivered sometime around middle to late February 2013.

Boeing also moved ZA232 (LN 28, VT-ANC) to the EMC to begin the change incorporation process for this airframe prior to delivery to Air India sometime next year.

I have also updated the tables to reflect the firing order for airplanes 116 to 130. The highlight of this list is ZB001 (LN126) which is the first 787-9 to go into final assembly.

There are a couple of things that caught my attention when I saw the list.  Boeing is assembling this aircraft on the 40-24 surge line and not on the main assembly line in 40-26.  Second, Boeing has diverted the final assembly of the 787-8s from 40-24 and is concentrating the production of customer aircraft in 40-26 and 88-03 in Charleston.  This is obviously in case they run into issues during final assembly of the first 787-9 that there aren't any bottlenecks in 787-8 production.  They are leaving themselves enough margin, it seems, to address issues with assembling the 787-9.  There will be a 3 airframe margin in front of the ZB001 and at least a 4 frame margin behind the aircraft as it makes it way through the final assembly stations in 40-24.

I don't have any information on follow on 787-9 frames just as yet but Boeing is believed to be planning for a 3 aircraft test fleet for the 787-9 with the test program lasting about 6 months.  I roughly estimate that ZB001 should enter the final assembly building around June 13, 2013.  Boeing has said the aircraft will start final assembly during the summer.  Since this is a brand new variant, I am assuming at least 6 weeks for final assembly and another 6 weeks for ground testing before first flight.  This would mean that this airplane can be flying around the middle of September, 2013.

On the firing order nothing stands out though we do get to see the first 787 for JetStar going through final assembly as well as the first 2 787s for Royal Brunei Airlines.  The Royal Brunei Order is listed as unidentified on Boeing's Order and Delivery website but they did order  787-8s with Trent-100 engines.  The airlines says that they are expecting to take delivery of the 1st 787 in early September 2013. This list as it stands now would cover deliveries through early September, 2013.

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.