Boeing Tries to Salvage 787 deal with Emirates at the expense of 777X

On the eve of the Paris Air Show, Dominic Gates of the Seattle Times put out an article where he interviewed Emirates' President Tim Clark.  In the articles Tim Clark did let it be known that Emirates let the LoI for the 40 787-10 lapse and is now using this lapse order as a bargaining chip with Boeing to defer much of the 777X order which numbers 150 aircraft.

According to the articles, Boeing is trying to get the 787 deal back on even if it means deferring a sizable number of 777X to a later date so far out that they will probably never be delivered.  The article also revealed that Emirates may opt for the 787-9 since they ordered the A350-900 and the A330-900NEO when they canceled the A380s.  Boeing is eager to land sales for the 787-10 as the order book for that version of the Dreamliner is still quite weak and as we have seen with Emirates past fleet planning, once they ordered a certain model they tend to be repeat buyers.  It is interesting that Clark insists that he will take delivery of all 150 777X and 40 787s.  However, Emirates financials have been weak and of course there is the recent cancellation of the A380 as proof that Emirates can change it is mind about the future of its fleet.

Lastly, I will be tracking the order action at the Paris Air Show and will be posting a daily tracker of the orders on the blog.  I don't expect that this will be a great show for Boeing given all the bad news with the 737 Max and the recent delays to the start of 777X flight testing and certification.

Boeing 787 achieve 800 customer deliveries in February

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	Number
Testing Complete	3
To be assembled in Everett	128
To be assembled in Charleston	129
Parts Arriving	6
Undergoing final assembly	7
Storage	2
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work	0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work	1
Pre-Flight Prep	12
Production Testing	4
Non Customer Flight Tests	0
Ready for Delivery	7
Donation	3
Delivered	800
TOTAL	1102

Boeing delivered 11 787s in February and in the process achieved 800 787 deliveries to paying customers.Boeing delivered 10 x 787-9 and 1 x 787-10.  So far this year Boeing has delivered 19 787 (16 x 787-9 and 3 x 787-10).  Total deliveries through February stand at 800 (360 x 787-8, 422 x 787-9 and 19 x 787-10).

787 number 800 went to Norwegian Air and was delivered on February 28.  This aircraft is L/N 813 (ZB837, G-CKWS).

Notable deliveries in February includes GECAS' 1st 787 which was leased to Suparna Airlines (owned by Hainan Group). This is also Supana's 1st 787.  American Airlines accepted the last 787 from its first order of 42 Dreamliners.  They have a new order of 22 x 787-8 and 25 x 787-9 which was placed last year.  This will give American 89 787s when the second tranche of 787s are finally delivered.

March deliveries look to be about 14 thus it appears that Boeing will start achieve a 14/month delivery rate this month though I'm still waiting for more information to confirm this.  If this hold expect a nice boost to Boeing's earnings with this increase rate and the expected accelerated drop in the deferred accumulated production costs.

As previously reported, Boeing rolled out 13 787s in January.  In February, Boeing rolled out 15 more thus it appears the 787 program is firmly producing at 14/month.  I expect a slight dip in roll outs in March due to February being a shorter month and Boeing starting final assembly on only 12 airplanes but Boeing is now rolling out 787s at 14/month.  Moreover, it appears that Boeing has assigned even numbered line numbers to Charleston and odd numbered line numbers to Everett.  Lastly, it appears that Boeing's production schedule has two 787s rolling out of the factories on the same date....one from each final assembly location.  I believe this is to standardize production and delivery schedules.  If you take a look at the 787 spreadsheets, starting in mid February, one 787 was rolling out of Everett and Charleston each. We'll see if this trend continues.

Finally, orders are coming in for the 787.  Bamboo Airways of Vietnam was revealed to be the customer who ordered 10 787-9s in January.  This morning Lufthansa signed on to be the newest 787-9 operator.  Lufthansa confirmed to me that the this order is a firm order for 20 787-9s and the contract does not contain any options.  The German air carrier is another "blue chip" airlines to order the 787 (they also ordered the A350-900).  These airplanes are to be delivered between 2022 and 2027 and will replace some of the A380s that the airlines will be selling back to Airbus.  Ouch! Thus far in the 1st quarter of 2019, Boeing has firm orders for 38 787.  As I mentioned previously, Boeing needs to book on average of 14/month to keep up with the new production rate.  If the 1st quarter order book shows at least 42 787s ordered then it validates Boeing decision, thus far, to produce at 14/month.

Make sure you check out my 787 Spreadsheets for all the latest information:

787 Spreadsheets