Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Boeing Books 18 new 787 orders in January, Deferred Production Down to $22.967bn

So two pieces of good news today.

First Boeing booked 18 new orders for the 787 in January. There was two orders made on January 9 each for 4 GE powered 787-9 and 787-10 leading me to believe that it was one customer who ordered these 8 Dreamliners.  Total speculation on my part but it was Malaysia Airlines that has signed an LoI for 8 Dreamliners.  It maybe that carrier that has firmed these 8 787s orders.

There was a separate order for 10 787-9 made on January 30th.  In all cases the customer remains unidentified but it's great to see a new order for the 787-10.

Thus far Boeing has booked 444 x 787-8, 804 x  787-9, and 173 x 787-10 for a total of 1,421 787s.

Lastly, Boeing's 10K showed the deferred production cost dipping below $23bn to $22.967bn.  This is a decrease of  $584mm from the third quarter.  With Boeing now producing at 14/month I expect subsequent quarters to show an even larger amounts of decrease in the deferred production balance.

As always please bookmark the link to my 787 spreadsheets as I make every effort to keep them continuously updated.

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Boeing delivers 8 787s in January; Production rate appears to be at 14/month

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett58
To be assembled in Charleston62
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly9
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work1
Pre-Flight Prep11
Production Testing5
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery3

Boeing booked 8 deliveries in the 1st month of 2019 (6 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10).  This is not an unusual start to the New Year as Boeing typically has single digit deliveries in the first month as they ramp back up from the Holidays.  The one notable delivery is to WestJet as the Canadian airline received the first of 10 787-9s.  Boeing, to date, has delivered 789 x 787 (360 x 787-8, 412 x 787-9 and 17 x 787-10).  Expect that Boeing will deliver the 800th 787 in February though it's still a little too early to tell, I believe that number 800 will be delivered around February 20th.  There are 2 deliveries scheduled for that day: a 787-9 for ALC/Eva Airways and a 787-10 for United.  Again this is all tentative and the delivery order could change.  The other notable delivery in February will be GECAS' 1st 787 which they will lease to first time operator Suparna Airlines which is owned by Hainan.

Production rate of the 787 is the big story for the program in 2019.  Boeing is now working towards increasing the production rate from 12/month to 14/month.  However, there is evidence that Boeing is already at 14 as Boeing began final assembly on 14 787s during January.  They rolled out 13 787s during the same period but this is only one month and the first month back after the Holiday season.  February production rates are usually lower because it's a shorter month but if we see 13 to 14 Dreamliner roll outs during February and 14 in March then we can be comfortable that Boeing is at 14/month in terms of production rate.  Again I do believe that Boeing will start delivering at 14/month around late March to early April.  Boeing, during its 4th quarter conference call to discuss its financial results reiterated that the 787 production increase to 14/month should "complete the transition in the second quarter." 

In the coming month I expect that will see EgyptAir's 1st 787 to be rolled out as well as Korean Air's final 787-9 that is on order.

While we won't know about Boeing's order intake for January for another week, it's a potential order lose that made news this past week.  Jon Ostrower broke news that Emirates' non-finalized order for 40 787-10 is at risk as the airline is rethinking its growth strategy.  The current order for the 777X will remain  but Airbus may lose all or part of the remaining A380 orders in favor of the A330NEO. Thus it appears that Emirates may switch out the 787-10 for the A330NEO.  It's been 15 months since Boeing And Emirates announced the LoI order at the Dubai Air Show in November 2017. Since then the expect final deal never materialized during 2018.  This would be a big blow to Boeing to place the 787 a all three major Gulf carriers.  As of January 31st, 2019, Boeing order book still stands at 1,403 787 with 789 delivered.

For up to date data concerning the 787 program including orders and deliveries please view my 787 spreadsheets by clicking the link below: