Saturday, October 22, 2016

Singapore Airlines to receive first 787-10 in May, 2018

According to sources, Singapore Airlines will receive the first 787-10 in May 2018.  The aircraft in question is ZC003 (LN 622) which is the fourth 787-10 that will be built in Charleston.

If the variable number block holds true then Singapore Airlines should also receive the 1st and 3rd 787-10 flight test aircraft, the first of which will start final assembly in December.  The delivery dates of the first two flight test aircraft have changed as noted below:

ZC001 delivery date moved from 7/18/2018 to 10/10/2018
ZC036 delivery date moved from 8/1/2018 to 12/17/2018

ZC002 delivery date is still listed as August 2018

This means that Singapore Airlines should receive the first three 787-10 to be delivered in 2018 and Boeing should make 15-17 787-10 deliveries in 2018.  I still don't know to whom ZC036 (LN 565) will be delivered.

787 Production and Disposition Table
787 Current Production Table

Monday, October 17, 2016

Possible 787 Order watch: Air New Zealand

I'm hearing from sources that Air New Zealand is doubling down on the 787.

The airlines' CEO was in Everett last week and apparently had come to an agreement to increase the airlines' 787 order but details are not available so I don't know the number or derivative(s).  The CEO flew back on Air New Zealand's most recently delivered 787-9 which was delivered on October 12th.

Boeing has had a nice run of 787 orders boosting their 2016 787 sales campaign results to 61 net orders thanks to orders from mainly from China and Qatar.  They can still achieve a book-to-bill greater than 1 if they can close the potential Emirates order this year.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

787 3rd quarter 2016 deliveries come in at 36 while rolling out 30 aircraft

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett162
To be assembled in Charleston115
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly9
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work4
Pre-Flight Prep5
Production Testing9
Non Customer Flight Tests1
Ready for Delivery3

Boeing finished the 3rd quarter with 12 787 deliveries in September and a quarterly delivery total of 36.  For the year to the end of 3Q16 Boeing has delivered 104 Dreamliners and 467 since program deliveries commenced 5 years ago.  Boeing needs to make 30 more deliveries to achieve 500 program deliveries to paying customers (they delivered 3 thus far in October) thus they have to average 11 deliveries per month during 4Q2016 in order to achieve this goal prior to year end.  Right now I estimate that they will deliver at least 35 in the 4th quarter.

Production is recovering after the summer slowdown in August. Boeing rolled out 10 787s in September while delivering 12. The efficiency ratio for the 787 program as a whole was 0.83.  Both Charleston and Everett delivered more 787s than they rolled out last month.  I expect the efficiency ratio won't be as good in October owing to a few more airframes rolling out but the number of airplanes delivered should be around 12 to 13 Dreamliners.  5 have already been delivered (all 787-9s); 3 more have had their customer flights and 5 more (including one early build 787-8) need to have their customer flights flown.

However, Boeing's delivery plans for this month might be in doubt because of the temporary shut down of Boeing's Charleston final assembly line due to hurricane Matthew.  I believe that the plant has reopened since the closure on October 5th but I'm not sure of the impact to the schedule or how production has been affected.  Boeing will have to contend with some of its workers having been displaced due to damage to their houses, power outages or impassable streets that are still flooded.  Also it is unknown what, if any, damage there is to Boeing's infrastructure in North Charleston or to any of the airframes that are in various stages of completion and that are unable to move out of the path of the storm.  For now it does seem that the Boeing plant in North Charleston came through the storm in good shape.  Some of the Charleston built 787s that were away for painting have now returned and they have also resumed production flight testing which is also a good sign.

Another production milestone is the role out of LN 500 for AerCap/Air France.  Even though the line number is 500, it is the 497th 787 pulled out of Boeing's plants (not including the static and fatigue test frame). I'm not sure which air frame will be the 500th rolled out.

L/N 500 for AerCap/Air France being pulled into building 40-24.  Photo by Chris Edwards of Woody's Aeroimages
There isn't anything notable of the 8 remaining 787s that are to be delivered this month though L/N 15, another early build 787-8 should be delivered to Air Austral later this month.  Also it is rumored that L/N 17 which was to be delivered to Crystal Cruises next month might actually go to Air Austral though this is unconfirmed.  We'll know more when it returns from painting in Victorville.  If Boeing delivers all 13 787s on the schedule it would be 11 787-9s vs 2 787-8s.

787 Full Production Table