787 and 737 MAX, A Tale of Two Groundings

The two horrible 737 MAX 8 accidents within 6 months of each other and under similar if not outright identical circumstances brings to mind the grounding of the 787s 6 years ago that were prompted by LION batteries that are used by that aircraft.  In each case there are similarities but also notable differences in the issues and how the different parties reacted to the safety of flight issues that were causes for both groundings.

In order to properly understand the context of these issues we should review what happened in January 2013.  In a matter of one week, multiple 787-8 belonging to Japanese carriers, Japan Airlines and ANA experienced electrical fires that were traced to the lithium ion (LION) batteries that were carried in the equipment bay of the 787s and used to supply internal power to the aircraft.  January 7 the first incident occurred on a JAL 787-8 that had just landed at Boston's Logan Airport.  Soon after the passengers and crew had deplaned, a maintenance worker noticed a burning smell. Airport fire rescue put out a fire that had started when the LION battery exploded in the aft electrical bay.

8 days later on January 15, 2013 an ANA 787-8 was flying a domestic route when smoke had entered the cabin.  The 787 made an emergency landing in Takamatsu, Japan where the passengers and crewed evacuated the airplane using the emergency slides.  After this incident, ANA promptly grounded all its 787s (which numbered 17 at the time).  One day later on January 16th, the FAA ordered the grounding of all US based 787s which, at that time, numbered 6 all owned by United Airlines.  However, other countries took the cue from the FAA and a worldwide grounding was in effect as aviation regulators took similar actions that the FAA had implemented.

It would be over four months before the FAA certified a containment system for these batteries that would protect the aircraft in the case of another battery fire. The airplanes returned to service once the FAA approved containment system was retrofitted in in service aircraft over the course of several months starting in late April, 2013.

Currently we don't have a definitive cause for the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 disasters though it appears, from initial reports, that a flight control system new to the 737 and known as the maneuvering characteristics augmentation system (MCAS) is getting faulty angle of attack information from external sensors and forcing the aircraft into a nose down attitude.  This is one possible factor in the two crashes.  The other factor is flight crew training on the new system as well as the documentation in the flight manuals of this system and how to respond appropriately to any emergencies caused by MCAS.

Soon after the Ethiopian crash on March 10th and over the next 2 days, aviation regulators all over the wold started grounding the 737 MAX 8 but the FAA did not act and this is where bizarre things start to happen.  Take for instance that Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg called the President to reiterate that the 737 MAX is safe to fly.  As more and more aviation safety officials and airlines around the world ground the airplane the FAA still insisted that the airplane is safe to fly.  This goes one for two and half days until finally the President (not the FAA) announces the grounding of the 737 MAX 8 and 737 MAX 9.   The announcement didn't come from the FAA, it came from the President which is extremely unusual and, quite frankly, disturbing.  Equally disturbing is the lack of leadership in the aftermath of these crashes from the FAA unlike the response it demonstrated with the 787 battery issue.  The United States was the last to ground the 737 MAX 8 (and MAX 9) after data of both crashes showed a lot of similarities.

Lastly it appears that Boeing has been working on a software fix for MCAS since the Lion Air crash but the long government shutdown in December/January delayed the implementation of testing and certification of the fix.  It's unknown what the pre-shutdown plan for testing and certification was or if the shutdown had not occurred if the fix would have been rolled out in time to prevent the Ethiopian crash.

With the 787 battery issue in 2013, the FAA had lead from the get go thus reassuring airlines and their customer that they took safety of flight issues seriously.  However, the FAA in 2019 abdicated its fiduciary responsibilities by not grounding the 737 MAX after the Ethiopian crash and thus leaving it to aviation safety regulators outside of the US to ensure safety of flight issues with the 737 are addressed.  The FAA was had to dragged into the grounding kicking and screaming after over 300 people had died.  The FAA and Boeing need to do more to ensure that the commercial aircraft used world wide are free from safety of flight issues if they want to redeem their reputation.  Outside individuals who are not involved with aviation safety and implementation of the regulations need to keep quiet and let the professionals decide what is safe and what isn't.

787 info from Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings call

                                         Ethiopian's First 787 (ZA262) returning to Everett.
                                         Photo by Bernard Leighton

Today was quite a day for Boeing and the 787. A lot of news today so let's get started

Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing Earning's came out today and showed quite an improvement.  As far as the 787 is concerned Boeing said a few things that were already known but let's go through the highlights.  Boeing is saying that they're seeing a high level of completion of aircraft coming out the final assembly line at Everett.  It's close to 100% apparently.  They're still tracking to increase production to 5/month by the end of this year and 10/month by the end of 2014.  Boeing is expecting to see higher 2nd half 787deliveries both from aircraft coming off the assembly line as well as those finishing change incorporation.  However Boeing does expect to see an increase in inventory as deferred production balance was recorded at $13.2bn and is expected to grow to about $20bn by the time the production rate hits 10/month after which there should be decline in this balance as airplanes are cleared out of inventory and the production system stabilizes at that rate.  In terms of deliveries Boeing said the deliveries were paced by customer demands and request.  It seems that this may be the reason why there hasn't been too much 787 pre-delivery activity at Everett.  They also said that aft fuselage production is a "hot spot" for Boeing in terms of 787 production and they still have some issues there which they're addressing. It's not a show stopper for the production rate increase. Jim McNerney said that the most important thing is that production is now occurring without the need to send airplanes to the Everett Modification Center (EMC) for change incorporation.  He also said that there is plan to get the aircraft that have to go through the EMC out in an orderly fashion.  He said that the EMC will continue to see work for the next year and half plus (so let's assume for another 18 to 21 months or end of first quarter 2014). Aside from Air India (a deviation from planned deliveries) which is all to well known, Boeing does have a ramp plan for deliveries for the second half of the year.  In terms of the improvement they said that ZA182 (LN70, JA828A) had about 160 open jobs left so they're seeing a lot of improvement in the condition of assembly.  Boeing is also seeing improvement at the EMC in terms of work behind schedule and shortages. They also said that the Trent 1000 gear box issue won't affect deliveries and 4 of 5 of airplanes ANA airplanes have been fixed and it's a very minor issue.  This issue won't affect deliveries of the airplane.  Boeing also gave more indications (there is greater fidelity on the evaluation of the business case) that they will do a 787-10X and that a decision should come later this year or early next year.  McNerney said that it does look like a good airplane which would have a lot of market demand. 

Looking ahead to 787 delivery forecast for the remainder of the year, Boeing said that they still expect to deliver between 35 and 42 787s for all of 2012.  They have already delivered 11.  This means that between 24 and 31 787s will be delivered by the end of this year and this will be split 50/50 between airplanes from EMC and those coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston.  Thus Boeing is saying that they would deliver between 12 to 15 787 each from EMC and the final assembly lines over the next 5 months starting in August (1 787 already has been delivered from the EMC in July).

Air India

Delivery of Air India's 787s is one step closer as an Indian Government Group of Ministers (GoM) had approved the deal between Boeing and Air India.  The matter now goes to the Indian Cabinet for final approval.  If and when that approval is given the delivery will take place and the fly aways will occur.  It's not known when the Indian CCEA will meet next but it is at his next meeting that the compensation deal will be discussed.

Aeromexico Order

Aeromexico added to the days news with a huge letter of intent (LoI) for 90 737 MAX8 and 737 MAX 9 as well as 10 787-9.  The deal is worth about $11bn.  It is not known if this order is inclusive of options of not but when the deal is finalized the numbers will then be known.  Aeromexico currently has orders for the 787-8 (both purchase and lease) and is expected to start taking deliveries starting in 2013.

Other News

The first 787 fro Ethiopian (see picture above) flew back to Everett this afternoon. ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) flew back in the Ethiopian scheme after spending close to two weeks in Ft. Worth being painted.  There were other 787s flights today but were test airplanes conducting Boeing test flights out of Boeing Field.  It is not known when the next B-1 flights will occur next but there are still some 787s that need the new gear box fro the Trent 1000 powered airplanes.  The timing of the next 787 test flights is also clouded by the planned closure of Everett's main renway from 4pm on August 2nd to 8AM on August 6th.  It is possible that Boeing can get 1 possibly 2 787s into the air for their B-1 flight before August 2nd but only if they're ready.

Farnborough 2012 - Day 1

First day at Farnborough was Boeing's day and already there are rumors that there will be more 737 MAX deals with GECAS and United Airlines on the order of 75 and 100 each respectively.  The United order announcement is rumored to take place in Chicago which is where the corporate headquarters for both UAL and Boeing are located.  The GECAS order might be announced tomorrow. Here's a review of the order action at Farnborough 2012:

Airbus
Arkia - 4 x A321NEO - MoU

Boeing
Air Lease Corp - 60 x 737 MAX 8, 15 x 737 MAX 9 - Firm

Embraer
Hebei Airlines - 5 x E190 - Firm