Wednesday, July 24, 2019

787 Deferred Production Cost drop by $1.06 bn as Boeing prioritizes 787 sales.

Boeing reported its 2nd quarter financial performance and it seems that things are a little bleak.

First off the continued issue with the 737 MAX has Boeing considering slowing down or even completely stopping production on the aircraft until it is re-certified and back in the air.  They've been producing the aircraft and then parking them all over the Pacific Northwest.  The higher margins from the 787 program has helped partially offset the 737 MAX financial hit.

They also announced that the 777X first flight has been pushed to early 2020 from late 2019 due to the continued GE9X issues.  There is a huge amount of schedule risk in that program.

Not to mention that Airbus seems to be getting the better of them in the NMA/A321 market where Boeing has yet to launch their new widebody aircraft.

The 787 program is a bright spot as Boeing did report that the deferred production cost dropped by over $1 bn to $20.969 bn. Last quarter the deferred production cost was around $22.029 bn. The main issue for Boeing is getting more orders for the 787.  Currently the remaining backlog of 787s is 581 airplanes which is about 3.5 years of production at the current rate.  The word out on the Street is that Boeing is willing to trade away some 777X orders with Emirates in exchange for the 40 787-10 that they signed an LoI for in 2017.  Boeing did note that recent orders from Air New Zealand, Korean Air and Air Lease Corp. has bolstered the 787 skyline but they do need to make a more aggressive push for more orders or they would have to look to cutting production.  They are aiming at the widebody replacement market as a source of new orders down the road.

Friday, July 19, 2019

Boeing and Korean Air Finalize 787 Order Announced At Paris

Boeing Photo

Korean Airlines finalized the letter of intent for 20 787s that was signed last month at the Paris Air Show 20 10 x 787-9 and 10 x 787-10.  Korean Air will be leasing an additional 10 787-10 for Air Lease Corporation.  When all 30 aircraft have been delivered, Korean Air will be operating a fleet of 41 787s including one 787-8 for the Government of South Korea.

There is no official word on when deliveries but I anticipate that it'll be around the 2022 time frame.

787 Spreadsheets

Here is the text of Boeing press release today:

Boeing and Korean Air Finalize Order for 20 787 Dreamliner Airplanes
Carrier modernizes widebody fleet with super-efficient 787-10, and 787-9 jets
SEATTLE, July 19, 2019 – Korean Air has finalized an agreement with Boeing [NYSE: BA] to order 20 787 Dreamliner airplanes – including 10 each of the 787-10 and 787-9 models – valued at $6.3 billion according to list prices. Along with an agreement to lease 10 additional 787-10 jets from Air Lease Corporation [NYSE: AL; "ALC"], the carrier will quadruple its Dreamliner fleet as it looks to bring greater efficiency and passenger comforts to its operations.
Korean Air, one of the largest transpacific carriers in Asia with 16 non-stop routes to North America, is adding the 787-10 to its long-haul fleet to complement its existing 787-9 and 777 airplanes.
The 787-10 is the largest member of the super-efficient Dreamliner family. At 224 feet long (68 meters), the 787-10 can serve up to 330 passengers in a standard two-class configuration, about 40 more than the 787-9. Powered by a suite of new technologies and a revolutionary design, the 787-10 offers carriers the lowest operating cost per seat of any twin-aisle jet in service.
“As we continue to innovate our product offering, the 787 Dreamliner family will become the backbone of our mid-and long-haul fleet for many years to come,” said Walter Cho, Chairman of Korean Air. “In addition to 25 percent improved fuel efficiency, the stretched 787-10 offers around 15 percent more space for passengers and cargo than our 787-9s, which will be critical to our long-term business goals.”
Korean Air announced its commitment to order the 20 Dreamliner jets and lease 10 more at the Paris Air Show in June. The airline plans to deploy the 787-10 on medium-range routes, while continuing to leverage the longer-range capabilities of the 787-9 Dreamliner on long-haul flights.
“As Korean Air celebrates a half-century of excellence in flight, they have earned the respect and admiration of the global aviation community. We are honored to partner with them again as they build out a world-class fleet of airplanes for their next 50 years,” said Ihssane Mounir, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “With the 747-8, 777 and now the 787 Dreamliner family, Korean Air operates one of the most efficient and comprehensive widebody fleets in the world.”
Korean Air employs a variety of Boeing Global Services to support its fleet, including Airplane Health Management services, which optimizes aircraft scheduling using predictive analytics with real-time flight data to reduce delays for its 787 aircraft. The airline also employs Jeppesen FliteDeck Pro electronic flight bag services that streamline access to digital navigational data, charts, manuals, and weather information for pilots. In addition, Korean Air also uses digital flight planning and runway performance analysis solutions, to further enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs across all phases of flight.
Korean Air’s Aerospace Division is a key Boeing partner on the 747-8 and 787 programs, supplying the distinctive raked wing-tips for each model. The division is also a supplier of the Advanced Technology (AT) Winglet on the 737 MAX.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

June 787 Deliveries at 19 as Boeing ends second quarter on a bang

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett99
To be assembled in Charleston99
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep19
Production Testing2
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery2

Boeing delivered 19 787s (1 x 787-8, 14 x 787-9 and 4 x 787-10) in June which is anew delivery record for the program. This allowed them to make up for lackluster delivery numbers in April and May.  Boeing delivered 42 787s (2 x 787-8, 31 x 787-9 and 9 x 787-10) during the second quarter equating to an average of 14/month.  For the year through the end of June deliveries stand at 78 (2 x 787-8, 60 x 787-9, 16 x 787-10).  Boeing has delivered a total of 859 787 since program deliveries began in September 2011 (363 x 787-8, 465 x 787-9, 31 x 787-10).

The 787 is now an important revenue generator for Boeing given that the 737 MAX deliveries have been halted because of the two crashes.  I can see Boeing putting 787 deliveries on a priority path in order to limit the damage to revenues at BCA.

In terms of new orders, Boeing booked only 1 firm order from Air Lease Corporation in June even though they announced several 787 orders for 30 aircraft at the Paris Air Show, these were all LoIs and are not yet final.

The current undelivered backlog of 576 airplanes represents three and a half years of production.  Boeing continues to produce at 14 per month with both Everett and Charleston running in synch with production.  It was also revealed in June that the Department of Justice (DoJ) is investigating Boeing's Charleston operations and assembly practices as well as employees at that facility.  The DoJ has issued subpoenas relating to 787 production amid allegations of improper work and assembly oversight.  This action is an extension of the DoJ's investigation of potential fraud in the 737 MAX certification and testing program.  These subpoenas came after a New York Times article alleging workmanship issues at the South Carolina plant.  As far as I know there hasn't been any subpoenas for Boeing's 787 production line at Everett.

Of the 19 deliveries made in June, 8 787s were built in Charleston and 11 in Everett.  Additionally Eva Air, Turkish Airlines and Air Tahiti Nui received their first direct purchased 787s.  KLM received it's first 787-10 as well.

Keep track of all the 787 news and production by bookmarking the link to my 787 spreadsheets below.