Boeing Execs Update on the 787 program through RBC Conference Call

Larry Loftis, VP and General Manager, 787 program and Pat Shanahan, Senior VP and general manager, Airplane Programs at Boeing were hosted on an investor conference call presented by RBC this afternoon.

Here's a synopsis of their comments and what was said on the call:

To date Boeing has delivered 38 787s overall and 35 in 2012 to 8 different customers. Boeing customers have told the company that the aircraft is meeting fuel burn expectations and passengers are also delivering great feedback in terms of comfort of the aircraft.

Started the year at 2.5/month production rate and will end the year at the current rate of 5/month. Boeing is tracking to plan to increase production to 10/month by the end of 2013. 

The next rate increase is to 7/month which is expected in mid 2013, whereupon it will stabilize at that rate before increasing to 10/month.

Boeing is well past the 90% engineering release milestone on the 787-9 and that was completed about 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule. The supply chain is largely the same as the 787-8 but have bought some work back in house. Schedule – the airplane is meeting all engineering milestones.  It is on original schedules with some suppliers ahead of schedule. The major components are currently being assembled by the major (tier 1) suppliers while wing assembly will start later this year into the very early part of 2013.  Boeing will introducing the 787-9 in to final assembly in late spring – late summer of 2013 and flight test in fall 2013 with EIS in early 2014. There will be 3 flight test aircraft with all three currently in production. the wing spars are currently being built at MHI (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries). There is a buffer in the schedule but it is looking like they won’t need it. The 787-9 weight has been stable and has improved by a couple hundred pounds. Boeing is planning for  6 months for flight test, but has been doing flight testing on the 787-8 to gather data to support the 787-9.  We now know why Boeing has been flying ZA005 lately. There is extra flow in the production system that has been allotted to the 787-9 in case there are issues during assembly of that aircraft.
 
Boeing has 3 final assembly lines going for the 787 and allows them a greater degree of flexibility to manage the ramp up of the 787 while introducing the 787-9 into the system.  The current plan is to continue to have the production split between Everett and Charleston at 70%/30%.  Boeing has been very pleased with the improvements in the production system over the last 12 months. The quality of the work and processes improve everyday, and the learning curve is tracking to their expectations. The curve at Charleston has been very good (for a new site, makes your wonder if Boeing had better expectations). Boeing has transferred best practices at Everett to Charleston and information is flowing back and forth very freely.  Boeing's intents is to make sure they have one standard set of best practices for both sites (one production system for 2 sites). 

Boeing has the ability to go beyond the 10/month production rate. The ability to go beyond 10/month will be determined by the market.  There's no constraint on bricks and mortar aspect of increasing the rate. Boeing has an understanding of the capabilities of the suppliers as well as their own capabilities.  The question will be the capacity of the suppliers and the rate to adding capacity.

By the end of the year, Boeing will have 60% of pre-LN 66 airplanes delivered. The remaining aircraft that are awaiting change incorporation will be delivered during 2013 to 2015 (Boeing currently has 23 aircraft undergoing change incorporation or awaiting change incorporation including 3 test airplanes).  The ones that remain are the lower line number and will take longer to complete as the extent of the changes  needed are extensive. There are firm homes for the majority of the planes that have yet to go through change incorporation. there are a couple that still need to find a customer (I'm guessing that these are ZA004 and ZA005).

With regards to delays, Boeing says that there  aren't any systemic delays (which would take weeks or months to resolve) in the production system but one off delays amounting  to a few days delivery of the 787 to customers because they are still learning.  Boeing would not comment on delays to specific customers or countries (China).

On the 787-10, Boeing is not ready to launch yet as they still have some work to do before they are ready to launch the program.  (Note they have said anything about Authority to Offer, ATO). Technically they are confident of the 787-10; operationally and financially they are trying to be more measured with their plans for the aircraft.  They are expecting an EIS at the back end of this decade (2017-2019 timeframe?).  It depends on when Boeing has finished the work they are engaged in with regards to the 787-10.  Boeing expects substitutions between the family of 787 models (go up or down within the different 787 models).

787 Half Time Report

So now that we're coming to half way through the year I thought to do a brief review and then look forward to the second half of the 787 ball game.
Deliveries in the first half were shaky. We got word of the incorrectly installed shims on the horizontal tailplane (HTP) on many of the aircraft that were built and in service. This slowed down deliveries as it wasn't a hard problem to solve but more of a question of access to the areas of the aircraft that needed correction. As a consequence we've only seen 11 deliveries (what will be 11 deliveries by June 30th). There weren't any deliveries in February and May. The former probably due to the shim issue and the later due to issues with Air India. It was expected that Air India would have taken two 787s in May. It is now looking more like a July delivery though if the GoI approves the agreement between Boeing and Air India. ANA will be taking delivery of one 787, ZA509 (LN 56, JA812A), on June 28th and should fly away on June 29th.  When this airplane is delivered Boeing would have turned over 11 787s so far this year. There is a slight chance that if the GoI approves the deal between Air India and Boeing on June 28th then Boeing could possibly deliver 2 or possibly all 3 787s that are currently ready for the carrier.

As we got into late spring early summer Boeing was now sending complete aircraft that had went through the full change incorporation process and were ready for pre-flight. These airplanes were augmented on the flightline by the first airplanes that go straight from the assembly line to the flightline (ok so maybe a slight detour to get a few minor jobs done). This is a major accomplishment for Boeing as now they have more certainty in the supply chain and their production system. ZA135 (LN 66) still had a about 300 small jobs to be completed but as Boeing get further into regular production, the number of these jobs will shrink. 

So in short by the end of June Boeing will have delivered 11 787 so far in 2012 and they will have 10 more that are ready for delivery in July and into August.  This number also includes the three for Air India that are ready to be delivered so Boeing really has 7 to work on as far as delivery preparations are concerned.

Can Boeing deliver 10 next month?  It sure is possible but they will need to devote a lot of resources to get those planes ready, especially those coming off the assembly line.  Currently ZA 135 (LN 66) just made its way into the paint hangar today while ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) is now on the flightline ready for ground and flight tests.  They still have to deal with the other aircraft that are coming off the assembly line,  currently 1 787 every 9 days, the next line move is July 3.  Boeing should push out 4 787s from 40-26 to the flightline during the month of July but I don't think they'll deliver in July due to the backlog of airplanes that are currently have to go through pre-flight.

Looking forward.

The next 6 months ahead is full of promise with deliveries to a lot different customers but also challenges when Boeing attempts to ramp to 5/month which I anticipate should occur around October.  Beyond ANA and JAL, Boeing should deliver to Air India (fingers crossed), Qatar Airways, Ethiopian, LAN, United, LOT Polish Airlines, Hainan and China Southern.  I'm still maintaining my view that Boeing will deliver 21 airframes straight from the assembly line (no change incorporation) in addition to the 11 that were delivered in the first half of this year.  That is 32 airplanes.  Add to that at least 4 787s (I think they do have the capability to deliver 5-6) from Charleston and yo are now at 36.  There are currently 6 more that are in various stages of pre-flight (doesn't include LN66 and above or anything built in Charleston) or ready for delivery.  Now we are at 42. Assuming 1.5 787s per month delivered from the inventory that is stored around Everett (that is 9, then we can realistically see 51 deliveries this year.  This does not even factor in other production positives like activation of the surge line or the increase to 5/month.  The final total could be substantially higher than 51 787s with these conditions factored in.  Again this is all assuming that production continues without a hitch and that Boeing continues to drive down the assembled 787 inventory.

More 787s coming out the door - June 22, 2012

Boeing is really on a roll in terms of getting 787s outthe door and prepared for delivery.  Tonight ZA536 (LN 68) will pushed out the door and parked on the 40-51 ramp to finish off minor assembly tasks before moving on to the paint hangar and then on to pre-flight.  This airplane will be the first one for LAN.   I'm not sure if the other airframes on the apron will be moved to make room for the third airplane.  Additionally, ZA262 (LN 49) for Ethiopian was moved from the Everett Modification Center to the Fuel Dock.  I suspect it will go through paint and fueling tests before moving out to flightline for pre-flight in the next couple of weeks.  Word is that we should see the first flight of Qatar's first 787, ZA461 (LN 59, A7-BCB) this Sunday but that is the rumor for now and nothing concrete as of yet.  Lastly, United Airlines confirmed that it will be receiving its first 787 in September.  More than likely this will be ZA288 (LN 53, N27904).  This aircraft is still in the EMC being prepared for delivery but recently had its GEnx engines attached.

787 Deliveries to take place soon

According to a post on a forum on Airliners.net, ANA should be taking delivery of 2 787s. ZA506 (LN 47, JA809A) will deliver tomorrow June 18 and ZA507 (LN48, JA810A) will deliver on June 19.  Additionally ZA509 (LN56, JA812A) will deliver on June 28th according to the post.  In terms of the Air India deliveries, that is still to be determined.  It seems that the GoI has not given the go ahead as of yet on the deal between Air India and Boeing.  If approval comes this week then I can see deliveries starting very soon thereafter.

July deliveries

The post also said that ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) and ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) will be delivered around July 31 and July 11 respectively and it may be possible for ZA135 (LN 66, JA813A) to be delivered during this month as well, this aircraft is still undergoing final assembly tasks on the apron.  Qatar Airways, it seems may not take delivery this month but that Boeing will conduct its first flight and then send it to Farnborough under Boeing control and ownership after which Boeing will complete all necessary pre-delivery operations prior to handing the aircraft over to Qatar Airways.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see further handover of aircraft to JAL and Air India in July.

Finally, I expect a line move late this week, around Friday the 22nd which should push out the first 787 for LAN, this is ZA536 (LN 68).

The mystery of 787 number 66 part deux

Well there seems to be a little bit more clarity on ZA135 (LN 66) and whether this airplane is in for storage or if it is being prepared for delivery.  Yesterday the a picture by Moonm showed ZA135 (LN 66) with engines hanging but with all the windows and doors sealed.  There was considerable debate what this meant and if it was a sign that this airplane still had to go through change incorporation.  Today local Everett photographer Matt Cawby flew around Paine Field and some of his photos showed ZA135 being worked on outside building 40-51.  Of particular interest is that this airplane now has some of the window and door seals removed.  The window masking is still on (presumably in preparation for painting).  This is a good sign that Boeing intends to move this airplane into the standard pre-delivery work and test flights.  Another less obvious sign is that Boeing moved one 787 from one flightline stall to another. ZA381 (LN 36) for China Southern went from stall 102 to stall 201.  Stalls 101 to 109 have been used by Boeing to prepare 787s for delivery. It's conceivable that stall 102 is where ZA135 will be parked as it is prepared for delivery.  Lastly, Matt's photos shows the wheels of the airplane uncovered as opposed to those that are being stored around Paine Field.  This indicates that Boeing will be moving the airplane from its current spot soon.  Where to is another question. The next movement of this airplane will give a more clear indication of the future of this airplane and whether Boeing has indeed turned the corner in 787 production.  It is very, very close.

Where is Boeing's 787 inventory - May 14, 2012

I just got updated information on the location of Boeing's 787 inventory that is stored or in re-work around Everett.  The information is quie interesting as it shows that Boeing is focused on getting the late build 787s through change incorporation and out to the flightline.  Many of the 787s that are in the EMC are airplanes 49 to 58 including ones for Qatar Airways, JAL, ANA, and Ethiopian.  This shows that Boeig is focused on getting the late builds out the door first and then going back to fix the early builds which will take more time.

Meanwhile Boeing is flying ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) in preparation for delivery to Air India by the end of this month.  ZA237 (LN46) already has had its first engine run and Boeing is saying that its first flight should come within "days" though I expect it to be some time late this week to middle of next week.  This plane will deliver to Air India by the end oof June if not sooner though with Air India things could change given the turmoil within that airline.

May 2012 787 Deliveries

I just got information from a source that Boeing MAY only deliver just 1 787 which will be ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) for Air India.  Given that the other two 787s (ZA506, LN 47, JA809A and ZA507, LN48, JA810A) that are on the flight line have not even flown there may be a lot of truth to this though they can still be delivered if Boeing conducts company and customer test flight over the next 3 weeks.  I am not sure for the delay but it does appear that Boeing may be setting for quite a few deliveries in June.  There has been speculation of which 787s that are in Boeing's EMC.  I've gotten some of that information and it does appear that the following ANA 787s are inside the EMC: ZA100 (LN7), ZA508 (LN 51), and ZA509 (LN 56).  Additionally there is a JAL 787 most likely ZA178 (LN 27).  There is another 787 which may be for either United or Qatar.

Another reason why Boeing will deliver 50 787s this year

Ok so I'm in the midst of having an email conversation with Saj Ahmad over at Strategic Aero about 787 deliveries when I realize (the light bulb does go off sometimes) that there is another rational for believing that Boeing can reach 50 787 deliveries this year.  It all has to do with what we know about deliveries in January 2013.

We do know that Thomson Airways is to get its first 787 ZA317 (LN92) in January 2013. We can assume that Boeing will deliver airplanes 66 to let say 90 by December 2012 (I'm assuming 2013 deliveries will start with LN 91).  That is 25 airframes right there that will go from assembly line to flight line, that is 25 787s that will not have to spend time in change incorporation.  Boeing has already delivered 8 787s this year.  So we are already at 33 787s for 2012 and we have not even touched the undelivered 787s that are sitting around Paine Field trying to finish change incorporation.

So we do know that of those 48 remaining 787s that have yet to finish assembly and change incorporation are airplanes for Air India, Qatar Airways, LAN, ANA, JAL, LOT, China Southern, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines and United.  These airplanes will receive at least one if not more of the 787s this year that will be undergoing change incorporation.  That is at least 10 787 deliveries from the 787 inventory at Paine.  We do know that Air India, Qatar, ANA and United will receive more than 1 but we can also add JAL and China Southern to that list (all these come from the LN 7 to LN 65 lot of 787s).  That's 6 more 787s for total of 16 coming from 787 WIP.  We also know that Air India is to receive  4 787s this year from the Charleston plant so we should add three more to the total and that gets you 19 787 deliveries from the pre-LN 66 lot of airplanes.  Thus the math is as follows:

  8 - 787 delivered so far
25 - delivery of LN 66 to LN 90 to be made in 2012
19 - delivery of 787 WIP (defined as LN 7 to LN 65 that have not yet been delivered, this is currently a total of 48 airframes).

8+25+19 = 52.

Simple, isn't it? Now we can probably added a few more for carriers like RAM, LAN, Air India, China Southern, United, Ethiopian and ANA for this year but I am unsure about how far they have to go for change incorporation.  The upshot is that Boeing is very conservative with their 787 delivery numbers for 2012.

787 production update - May 3, 2012

787 production is starting to get interesting as there will be another line move tonight at Everett.  Boeing will push out ZA462 (LN62 for Qatar Airways) allowing the four positions to be occupied by airplanes 63, 64, 66 and 67.  The later two are planes that should not have to go through any change incorporation and will go direct from the assembly line to the flight line at Everett.  The main fuselage for airplane 67 should have been delivered last Friday night after Boeing had pushed out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  That 787, ZA237 (LN46) is on its way to finishing the 96 assembly tasks that are left before entering gauntlet testing and first flight which is projected to take place between May 18 and May 5th.  Delivery to Air India should take place by June 30th.  Also I got confirmation that ZA239 (LN 60) and ZA240 (LN65) are both for Air India and both are being assembled at Boeing Charleston.

In other production news, I got wind of Thomson Airways deliveries of their first 3 787s.  The first airplane for Thomson will be ZA317 (LN92) which should start assembly late this year for delivery in January 2013.  This will be followed by ZA318 in February 2013 and ZA319 in March 2013.  The first and third airplanes will be based in Manchester while the second airplane will be based out of Gatwick all to support training and EIS of the company's 787.  These airplanes will carry 291 passengers of which 47 will be premium seating in 38 inch pitch seating while there will be 244 in economy in 36 and 33 inch pitch seats.

As far as deliveries this month, I fully expect 1-2 787 for ANA and 2  airplanes for Air India.

LAstly, I came across some interesting analysis with regards to deliveries of the 747-8 and 787s this year.  It is estimated that Boeing will have built, through the end of this year about 50 747-8 airplanes (F and I).  Of those 50, 9 were delivered last year leaving 41 potentially to be delivered this year.  Of those 41, 3 were for Atlas Air Cargo which they have stated that they will not take...that brings the number of deliverable aircraft to 38 for 2012.  However this number includes test airplanes that have yet to under go refurbishment including 2 for Cathay Pacific Airways and the second 747-8F built which is for NCA.  That brings the number down to 35 747-8 aircraft.  If Boeing is projecting between 70 to 85 747s and 787s to be delivered by the end of this year that means that Boeing can be in a position to deliver between 35 and 50 787s.  This is entirely possible as is starting to produce 787s that will go straight from the production line to the flight line and into testing.

2 more JAL 787s to deliver tomorrow

Boeing is set for another 787 double delivery to customer Japan Airlines.  This time two more late built 787s will be delivered on April 25th.  Fly away to Japan is expected around the 26th or 27th, in time for JAL to start 787 service to Moscow and Delhi in May.  Japan Airlines is expecting to have 10 787s in its fleet by March 31, 2013.  There are still 3 more JAL 787s at Everett that have yet to finish change incorporation.  The two 787s that will be delivered are ZA180 (LN 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (LN38, JA827J).

Boeing is preparing ZA506 (LN47, JA809A) for delivery to ANA.  This is probably not going to happen until May with it's first flight sometime in the first two weeks of May.  This will be ANA's 8th 787. Again Boeing is still clearing out the late and very late built aircraft but clearing out the first 23 787s built has been very slow (LN7 - LN29)

Additionally, it's expected that Boeing will finally deliver Air India's first Dreamliner though the first one ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) is still in San Antonio.  It's sister, ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) has been flying around San Antonio and may be flying to Paine Field right now.  This airplane will still need to have its interior installed when it gets back to Everett so it won't be ready for delivery until late May at the earliest.

Finally on Friday Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  This airplane, ZA237 (LN46) is destined for Air India and should be delivered around June.  Given that this is the first 787 to be built at Charleston, Boeing will probably take its time doing the needed gauntlet testing before conducting its first flight.  Boeing will then send the plane to Amarillo, Texas where Leading Edge Aviation Services is contracted to paint the Charleston built Dreamliners.  Boeing Charleston doesn't have a paint hangar unlike Everett but I can see that changing with Boeing's acquisition of more land near the plant.  The airplanes will then be flown back to Charleston where the interiors will be fitted and further Boeing and customer test flights will be completed.

First SC built 787 to roll out at end of April, 787 production update

Boeing announced that the first 787 built in North Charleston will roll out of final assembly on April 27th. This aircraft, ZA237 (L/N46), is destined for Air India and should be delivered this summer. Even though it is rolling out it will probably go through a more extensive battery of ground and gauntlet testing as this is the first 787 built outside of Everett where most of the assembly technicians are new to building this aircraft. After gauntlet testing Boeing will conduct a B-1 test flight and then fly the aircraft to Texas where it will be painted. It will return to North Charleston to finish pre-delivery Boeing and customer test flights. I don't know if it already has the customer interior installed but that could happen just before painting but after flying the initial test flight. In case the test flight has uncovered any issues that need to be corrected, Boeing techs will probably want unrestricted access to any areas. Interior fittings like seats, galleys, and restrooms can get in the way.

Lastly, I updated the 787 production firing order with LN71-LN75. One slight change is that LN 63 which was going to be for Hainan Airlines is now going to ANA with Hainan now getting LN 73. I was able to get some information on where these particular airplanes will be built as well. These 5 frames are, for now, scheduled to go to Ethiopian (2 frames), Air India, Hainan, and LAN. Interesting no new first delivery frames in this lot.

Boeing delivers 3 787s in March, three more on tap for April

Boeing was able to deliver three 787s to customers in March, 2 to Japan Airlines and 1 to ANA. It's looking like Boeing will be able to deliver 3 more in April. Again two to JAL and one more to ANA. In fact ZA105 (L/N 42, JA808A) is schedule to make its first flight today (April 1)...hopefully it's not an April Fool's joke by Boeing. Both ZA180 (L/N 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (L/N 38, JA827J) had their first engine runs though JAL's CEO was a little vague at the delivery ceremony for its first two 787s if the airline will take delivery in April. I still have no further information on their delivery timelines or for other 787s deliveries beyond ZA105.

Who's next?

So who else will be receiving 787s this year? Well in addition to ANA and JAL the known customers who have given updated delivery guidance will include:

Air India (May)
Qatar Airways (June just before Farnborough)
United (Fall, 2012)
LAN (Fall, 2012)
Polish LOT (Late 2012)

Other first deliveries may/should include Ethiopian and China Southern both airlines should receive them around late summer to fall though there hasn't bee any updated delivery guidance given by those two carriers. The first 787 for Hainan Airlines is supposed to start final assembly within the next couple of weeks though again there is no guidance on when this airplane will be delivered so it might be early next year as resources are used to get the earlier airplanes ready for delivery. Royal Air Maroc has two 787s out on the flightline though I am not sure when those are to be delivered and there has been no recent delivery guidance given by the airline. RAM was expected to take their first 787 in late 2011 but that is most assuredly pushed to late this year at the earliest if not sometime in early 2013.

Production

On the production line airplanes 58, 59, 61 and 62 are in positions 4 though 1 respectively in building 40-26. Airplane 60 will be built on the North Charleston line though I don't have a final assembly start date yet. This is an airplane for Qatar Airways. Boeing is closing on the start of assembly for airplane 66 which will be the first airplane that will go straight from the assembly line to flight testing and will have no need for change incorporation or any other work. This airplane is destined for ANA when it is complete. I can see this airplane being delivered around June of this year.

Boeing has delivered 5 787s so far this year and are expecting to deliver anwhere from 30 to 37 more 787s this year. That means they need to deliver more than 3 airplanes perr month for teh rest of this year if they are to attain that goal. If they deliver only 3 787s in April then they would have to deliver almost 4 airplanes a month for the remainder of the year to attain their goal.

GE powered 787 receives FAA type certification

Boeing's 787 powered by the GEnx-1B engines received it's type certification from the FAA today clearing way for deliveries to start to those customers who ordered the GE engine. Japan Airlines is expected to take two 787s powered by this engine at the end of next week. Air India was expected to be the first customer but that has been pushed back due to the compensation issue between AI and Boeing. The government of India now says that Air India will take all the 787s ordered. I anticipate the first one will be delivered in May.

Boeing is planning to deliver one Rolls Royce powered 787 to ANA this month.

Boeing's Press Release:

Boeing Receives Certification for 787 Dreamliner With GE Engines
EVERETT, Wash., March 20, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing (NYSE: BA) received an amended type certificate today from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the 787-8 Dreamliner equipped with General Electric GEnx engines.

"This is a great day for our customers and for our team who worked tirelessly to ensure the Dreamliner offers breakthrough fuel efficiency, unprecedented performance and new levels of comfort," said Larry Loftis, vice president and general manager of the 787 program. "We are pleased to accept the FAA's confirmation of the safety and reliability of this airplane."

The amended type certificate from the FAA formally recognizes that the 787 with GE engines has demonstrated compliance with rigorous federal regulations. The achievement caps off the most robust flight and ground test program ever conducted in the company's history.

"This milestone completes the certification of the 787-8 airplane, and allows airlines to now operate the GE engine-powered 787 with both the baseline Block 4 engine and the PIP1 engine upgrade," said Mike Sinnett, vice president and chief project engineer for the 787 program. "It also represents the success of a remarkable partnership with the regulatory agencies around the world."

"This is the culmination of extraordinary work by teams from GE and Boeing," said Chuck Nugent, general manager of the GEnx engine program for General Electric. "GE Aviation is honored to power the Boeing 787 Dreamliner with its new GEnx-1B engine, and we look forward to seeing the aircraft-engine combination flying the skies around the world."

Initial type certification of the 787 with Rolls-Royce engines took place in August 2011. Each new combination of an airframe type and engine requires additional certification to validate the integrity of the design.

60 customers around the world have ordered more than 870 Dreamliners.


With the this achievement, Boeing is now complete with the inital flight testing and certification activities for the 787, the Trent-1000 and the GEnx-1B. Boeing will still be conducting further company test flights in support of activities to find additional efficiencies in the aircraft as well as in support of further weight reduction efforts and testing of Trent and GE engine improvements (GE's PIP 2 and RR package "C" improvements). Of course flight testing and certification activities will start a new some time next year for the 787-9 and later in the decade on the proposed 787-10X.

Update to March 2012 787 deliveries

UPDATE: Boeing will be sending one of the 787 built for Air India to an Airshow in Hyderabad which is to take place next month. It will have a full interior as ordered by Air India but it won't be delivered as the Government of India is still debating, apparently, whether to accept the 787 into Air India. As such these aircraft, already built are in limbo due to the financial situation at Air India as well as AI's demands for $1bn in delay compensation. Again it seems that Air India is trying to get Boeing to pay for its own gross mismanagement of the air line. The 787 order is being held hostage due to this situation. ZA236 is goingto be flown to Boeing Field, ostensibly to prepare it for the show but also to help free up space at Everett. I can see Boeing flying more service ready 787s there in order to free up space at Everett.

I just got some updated delivery dates for 787 deliveries this month.

ZA117 (LN 40, JA806A) on March 21 for ANA
ZA177 (LN 23, JA822J) on March 29 for JAL
ZA179 (LN 33, JA825J) on March 29 for JAL

The two JAL deliveries moved up 2 days while the ANA delivery slide by 5 days. Again this information is preliminary and may change as conditions change at Boeing. Again no word on delivery to Air India of ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH). Special thanks to Snooze Control. I would also like to ask Snooze Control to send me an email to ureshs at aol com

Another ANA 787 delivered, another being prepared

Lat night a Boeing crew flew out another ANA 787 for ANA destined for Haneda International Airport. This is ZA102, (JA804A, L/N 9) and one of the very early build aircraft that needed extensive re-work and modifications. It will probably be placed in domestic service. This is ANA's 5th 787 and there are two more waiting in the wings.

ZA117 (JA806A, L/N 40) made an appearance on the Everett flightline after passing the last few months insidethe EMC. Thanks to Johanny who gave us a link to a flickr page maintained by "Simpilot459" which shows this aircraft with lights on at the Compass Rose at Everett. This is scheduled to be the next 787 delivered.

See ZA117

However weather in the Pacific Northwest may become an issue over the next few days that may disrupt the delivery schedule. ZA236 (VT-ANH, L/N 35) was scheduled to fly yesterday but was postponed due to a winter storm that is hitting the Pacific Northwest. This storm is expected to dump snow in the region over the next few days. It's unlikely that this plane will fly its B-1 flight until the storm passes or is reduced in intensity. I'm estimating that it probably won't fly until the end of this week. Likewise, ZA117 is supposed to have it's B-1 flight around the 20th but this is looking increasingly unlikely as it was just pulled out of the EMC and will need to have its first engine start and other pre-flight activities done prior to the flight. I can't se this plane flying before the end of next week.

The end result is that deliveries will be delayed due to the storm as it moves the schedule to the right.

Boeing on verge of starting final GEnx/787 certification tests

UPDATE: Due to a winter storm in Washington State, it looks like ZA236's first flight has been put off. On a related note, ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is now scheduled to leave Everett at 7:15PM local for its delivery flight to Haneda.

A Flightaware alert just went up for BOE 236 this afternoon for takeoff around 1:45pm local time. The significance of this flight is that this is the first flight of the 787 that will undertake the last part of F&R/ETOPs certification testing that is required for FAA type certification of the GE powered 787.

This important testing was partially done by ZA006 a few months ago but FAA requires that some of the tests also needs to be done by a production standard 787. Boeing assigned ZA236, a 787 destined for Air India. The start of the final phase of this testing was delayed and rumor has it that the delay was attributable to lightning protection around the engine pylons for the GEnx-1B engines.

Today's flight should be a standard Boeing checkout flight and there will probably be a couple

More test flights before final F&R/ETOPs flight formally kick off.

Boeing is hoping to start GE/787 deliveries next month so I anticipate that this test should last 3-4 weeks with the aim of first GE powered 787 delivery to JAL at the end of February. However this is all predicated on all testing going well with no major issues being revealed.

787 flyaways

Tentative word is that ZA104 (JA807A, L/N 41) should leave today at about 6pm. It was officially delivered on the 12th. It will be flying as NH9397 departing for Haneda. Nothing up on Flightaware of yet but there is still a few hours to go.

ZA102 (JA804A, L/N 9) is projected to be delivered today with a tentative flyaway date of January 16 at 7:15PM. It will also fly to Haneda as NH9397.

Updated 787 info...no deliveries till Jan. 4th

UPDATE: The flyaway (from Everett) should occur on the 4th for 805A and 807A which means delivery (formal paper signing and transfer of money) should occur by the 3rd of January.

Just got a message as well as saw a posting on an airliners.net forum that all three 787s that were due to be delivered around now have "gone tech" meaning there is a maintenance related issue with all three airplanes.

JA805A (L/N 31, ZA116) was supposed to depart Everett 2 days ago and is now schedule to be flown out on Jan. 4th in an evening depature. JA807A (L/N 41, ZA104) will fly out the same day a little later after JA805A has left(it was to deliver on Dec. 30th and fly out a couple days later).

JA804A's (L/N 9, ZA102) delivery was also scheduled for Dec. 30th (fly out a couple days later) but also cancelled though for unknown reasons. It is not known when it will be ready for delivery though this aircraft has flown as recently as Dec. 30th (as had ZA104).

Currently there are no other 78 deliveries scheduled in January but this doesn't mean that Boeing will not deliver any more beyond the two aforementioned aircraft. The situation is very fluid and it is unknown if the issues affecting these two aircraft is something more endemic throughout all the 787s or if this a one off situation.

Dec. 31st - no sign of further 787 deliveries

Today is December 31st, 2011 and there has been no further evidence of any other 787 deliveries beyond the ones made in September and October.

This doesn't indicate that ANA and Boeing has concluded the formal signing over of the aircraft and transferring of money and signing of documents. That may well have happened already but no aircraft has left Everett bound for Japan as of yet and there has been no announcement from Boeing or ANA of the formal delivery of any of these airplanes. ZA116 (JA805A) is still in Everett and has flown both Boeing and customer flights but I don't know if there are more test flights that have yet to be done or if there is any more work that needs to be concluded on the airplane itself. This Dreamliner is probably the one that is closest to being delivered.

The other two airplanes ZA104 (JA807A) and ZA102 (JA804A) have done some customer flights out of Everett but probably need to do a few more flights before ANA formally accepts them. I do think that Boeing can deliver all three airplanes within the next week in order for ANA to meet its newly revised international 787 service schedule. It is to start Tokyo - Beijing service in the middle of January and Tokyo - Frankfurt service in February.

As far as other airplanes, ZA236 has yet to make a flight to start finish F&R/ETOPs testing on the GEnx powered 787. There is no word on when that will happen though it has run its engines for the first time just before Christmas though there was a small fuel fire 30 minutes into the engine run. I don't know what effect that has on the schedule as of now.

More on Boeing 787 delivery schedule

In the wake of the news coming out of Japan of the delay to the 3rd Dreamliner delivery more news has since come out courtesy of Dominic Gates at the Seattle Times and Susanna Ray at Bloomberg News.

Dominic Gates reported yesterday evening that the reason of the delay for the third 787 to ANA is wiring issues that the FAA found during a standard inspection as well as non functioning APUs in three 787s. Because the APU didn't start, tests that were to be done with the APU running had to be put off until the units were replaced. Boeing is calling these issues minor yet they were severe enough to force ANA to revise its international plans that were supposed to start this month.

It is unknown if this is a problem that is endemic through the 787s that are sitting in Everett or it is just a one off problem. Still the upshot is that the L/N will not be delivered until middle of next week and the other three airplanes that are set to be delivered have yet to fly on their pre-delivery tests with Boeing and ANA pilots. The delay which this site reported back in mid November forced ANA to postpone the start of international 787 service to next month.

Due to the pressure to deliver these four airplanes (L/N 9, L/N 31, L/N 41, L/N 42) Boeing is having some of it workers work through the holiday season which is traditionally a week off for Boeing employees. Undoubtedly they will probably be well compensated for their time. There are only three of these airplanes on the Boeing flightline though the fourth, L/N 42, is outside in front of EMC so it might be pulled out to the flightline very soon. Interestingly according to the Bloomberg article, the APU and wire issues aren't pacing the schedule. The question then is, what is pacing the delivery schedule, at least in the near term. Both articles say that Boeing feels that the issues are minor.

As of yet L/N 41 and L/N 42 have not flown and L/N 9 while it has flown still has not begun the process of Boeing and customer check flights. L/N 31 has had quite a few flights but has not flown since Wednesday, Dec. 14th. I'll be watching to see if there is any further movement on these airplanes but certainly, if the other three airplanes have not flown by middle of next week then Boeing's hopes of delivering at least four 787 this month will be dashed.

Lastly, in a related note, L/N 35 which to perform the ETOPs/F&R testing for the GEnx-1B on a 787 production frame still has not made its first flight. IF Boeing hopes to deliver the GEnx powered 787 next month they need to start flight tests on this airplane very soon or the certification and start of deliveries can slide to the right again.