China to issue 787 airworthiness certificate early next week

UPDATE: CAAC, the Chinese aviation regulator has approved the 787 for use by the country's airlines today (5/23/13). China Southern shortly followed by Hainan should be taking delivery next week. Pilots from both carriers should be conducting customer test flights within the next few days, perhaps as early as today.

Thanks to our blog readers CX880 and Weijie Deng, a firmer picture now has emerged regarding the start of 787 deliveries to Chinese carriers. A team from China Southern Airlines is in Seattle to conduct customer flight(s) and to complete paperwork needed for delivery and payments. China's aviation regulators are expected to give its approval for its carriers to operate the 787 on May 27th and China Southern is expected to formally take delivery on May 28th. I expect China Southern to take delivery of 8 787s this year.  The first one to be delivered will be ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725).

Hainan can also take delivery of up to 2 787s this month from Boeing's Charleston facility. Both ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) are painted and have completed Boeing test flights and await us timer inspection and test flights. It is unclear if Hainan will take both this month or one but it does appear at the least that the deliveries will be closely spaced to one another. I expect Hainan to take delivery of 6 787s this year.

May 787 Delivery Predictions

Here is a list of 787s that I expect to be delivered during the remainder of this month. Please note that the deliveries to the Chinese carriers are contingent upon the aircraft obtaining its airworthiness certificate from Chinese civil aviation authorities but booth China Southern and Hainan have said they expect their deliveries later this month.

Air India - ZA241 (LN 72, VT-ANM) - so far had 5 test flights and may have one more before being delivered

Hainan - 2 787 from Charleston - ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) & ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) pending certification and customer test flights

China Southern - ZA380 (LN 34, B-2725) pending certification and customer test flights

JAL - ZA184 (LN 89, JA830A) had three test flights thus far, may have one more to do

Thomson Airways - ZA317 (LN 92, G-TUIA) - Thomson's first 787 has had 5 test flights thus far.

These six together with the two already delivered would allow Boeing to claim 8 deliveries in May which would be a very healthy re-start to deliveries after three and a half months of growing inventory at Everett and Charleston.

 

Transaero Airlines to get early build 787s

I got word that Boeing has officially allocated 3 very early build 787s to Transaero Airlines.  The three frames are ZA800 (LN 11), ZA801 (LN 12), and ZA803 (LN 14).  All three were previously going to be delivered to ANA but has since asked for later built 787s.  Boeing still has about 7 more that need to be re-allocated to other airlines.  These are among the group of 787s that are known as the "terrible teens."  It has been rumored that Transaero would pick up these aircraft from Boeing on the cheap when they closed on the order of 4 787s early last year.  It's also rumored that Lion Air will be picking up their 5 aircraft from this block as well but that change has yet to be reflected in the system.

Production flight testing has picked up today with ZA318 (LN 94, G-TUIB) for Thomson making its first flight today.  ZA512 (LN 83, JA818A) made it 12th flight and this aircraft should be delivered to ANA late next week though it still has to go through customer acceptance flight(s). Two Charleston built 787s for Hainan  swapped places today as ZA431 (LN 76, B-2722) flew back to Charleston and ZA433 (LN 81, B-2723) flew to Ft. Worth for painting from Charleston.

 

Updated 787 Production - 7/5/2012

The 787 production and disposition list has been updated to reflect the firing order for airplanes 81 to 90.  This lot of aircraft should be in production through mid-October 2012.  There are no new customers on the list but LOT Polish Airlines will receive its 3rd, 4th and 5th 787s from a total order of 8.  All these aircraft should be delivered, assuming no issues with production or the aircraft, by the end of this year.  The airlines that are to get aircraft from this lot of 10 are Hainan (2), ANA, JAL (2), LOT Polish (3), Qatar, and Air India.  Airplane 90 also marks a start of the block point of 787s where Boeing is to get the 787-8 down to the promised contractual weight when the program was launched in 2004.  The airline that will receive the first aircraft in this block point is Air India, surprisingly.  Please note that this firing order can change between know and the time that these airplanes start final assembly perhaps even after they've been rolled out of the final assembly hall.