Some slippage seen in September 787 deliveries

Sources are indicating some slips in 787 deliveries for September but so far it doesn't seem that any of the slips are into October....yet.  The first for Qatar Airways, ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) bot hare now tentatively scheduled to deliver around September 20th.  Additionally Boeing is working some unknown issues with ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) and delivery may take place around September 5th but may be even later.

The information thus far hasn't indicated any slide of September deliveries into October just as yet but one has to wonder what are the issues that are causing the delivery slide.

Still no word on the deliveries to Air India though there is a rumor that contractual delivery was made on ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) and ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) on Aug. 31st.  This is yet unconfirmed and we may not know until Boeing releases its monthly orders and deliveries report for August within the next 10 days.  The airplanes are being held in Charleston over some unspecified engine issue is resolved.  I don't know if it has anything to do with the GEnx engine failure from July or not.  I'll keep an eye on it.

787 deliveries on tap for the last week of August

Today, according to sources, Boeing may have made a contractual delivery of Air India's first 787.  ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) was seen at the Boeing Charleston Delivery Center today and a source did say that the aircraft may be delivering today (contractually). The contractual delivery date is the date that the paperwork is signed and the final delivery payment is made to Boeing by the customer. When asked if this was the case, Boeing spokesperson, Candy Eslinger, replied: "The Air India delivery team is in South Carolina for the delivery scheduled next week."  This is confirmation that Boeing will be delivering at least one if not two 787s to Air India this month.  I have heard that ZA236 would deliver on Aug. 27 (ceremonial delivery perhaps) and fly away that afternoon/evening for New Delhi.  For now there isn't any confirmation about the contractual delivery being made though I suspect that this event may have taken place today (Aug. 24th). In addition to ZA236 being delivered this month, a source has told me that the following deliveries may take place during the next week.  Please take this information with a grain of salt as we have seen that some may not materialize due to different circumstances.

ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN on Aug. 27
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar Airways on Aug. 30
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA on Aug. 30
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to Japan Airlines on Aug. 30 (this airplane has had only one test flight)
ZA233 (LN 29, VT-AND) to Air India on Aug. 31

Additionally ZA237 (LN 46, VT-ANI) is almost ready for delivery but doesn't have a delivery date as of yet.  It appears that Air India is trying to pick up one delivery ready 787 each week so it could be that ZA237 could deliver in September.  There are two other 787s for Air India both built at Charleston that have yet to take their B-1 flights so I anticipate that those deliveries may happen in late September but more likely in October.

There is also further information on September deliveries which, once again, should be taken with a grain of salt.

ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA on Sept. 12
ZA263 (LN 71, ET-AOR) to Ethiopian on Sept. 18 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA288 (LN 53, N20904) to United on Sept. 18
ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J) to Japan Airlines on Sept. 20 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCL) to Qatar Airways on Sept. 25 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) to ANA on Sept. 25 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)
ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727) to China Southern on Sept. 27 (hasn't taken its B-1 yet)

All told the total number of deliveries in August and September may total 16, IF this scheduled is kept.

Updated 787 delivery information

Activity around Everett has increased in recent days as far as the 787 is concerned.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) continues pre-delivery test flight, ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) performed a customer test flight and ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) conducted its B-1 flight).  Even though August is almost one half over a posting on airliners.net says that there will be 7 Dreamliner deliveries made this month not including deliveries to Air India.  The delivery train starts this Monday (August 14th) with first delivery to Ethiopian of ZA262.  Less than a week later ZA100 will deliver to ANA on the 20th.Qatar Airways is scheduled to be the 4th carrier to take the 787 (ZA461) around August 22nd followed by LAN (ZA536) on August 27th.  ANA takes one on August 28th (ZA119). Both JAL (ZA182) and ANA (ZA118) take one each on August 30th.  Again this schedule is subject to change and many of these deliveries can move to a later date.  If this schedule holds then it would be the most 787s delivered by Boeing in one month and will add 3 new airlines flying the 787. 

It is possible that Air India could be added this month but they are having a very hard time arranging financing to pay for the jets that are ready for delivery and is reflective of their financial distress.  It is unknown if Boeing will penalize them for not taking delivery in a timely manner but Air India has been aware that these airplanes are ready for delivery but chose not to pursue financing until after they got approval to take delivery from the GoI.  This reinforces the view of many that this is a very poorly managed airline.  The Air India -787 saga continues, unfortunately.

September is also promising to be just as good as August was in terms of '87 deliveries with United and China Southern both taking their first airplanes.  All September deliveries are tentatively scheduled for the second half of September and kcks off with Ethiopian taking delivery of ZA264 (LN 71, ET-AOR) on Sept. 18th as well as United (ZA288, LN 53, N20904) also signing for its first 787 on the same day.  Two days later Japan Airlines will take its 6th 787 which is an early build Dreamliner, ZA178 (LN 27, JA824J).  ANA takes a 787 which is the first 787 to be rolled out without needing to go to the EMC.  ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) should deliver around September 25th.  Qatar Airways will take its second 787, ZA463 (LN 64, A7-BCD) on September 27 but also delivering on that date will be the first '87 for China Southern.  This airplane is ZA382 (LN 43, B-2727). 

All together this is 13 787s that is scheduled to be delivered over the next 6 weeks and will take Boeing to 25 787 delivered in 2012 not including tentative deliveries to Air India if and when that happens.  By the end of September, if all goes according that what I laid out in this post, then there will be 7 customers flying the 787 by the end of the third quarter possibly 8 with Air India.

First 787 B-1 flight in almost 3 weeks scheduled to be conducted today

The first 787 B-1 flight to be conducted in almost three weeks is scheduled to take place today at about 10AM PT (1PM ET) today.  ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) will fly its first flight.  This aircraft is the first production airplane to be assembled though it is also the aircraft that needed the most modifications. It has been in Everett for over three years since it started final assembly. If goes according to plan, this aircraft should deliver to ANA by middle to late August depending on any issues that would need to be corrected.  The flight is on Flightaware.

According to a posting on the airliners.net forum, Boeing is planning to deliver some where around 7 '87s in August as follows:

ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) to ANA - 2nd to 3rd week of August
ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) to Qatar - 4th week of August
ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) to Ethiopian - 4th week of August
ZA118 (LN 67, JA813A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) to LAN - last week of August
ZA119 (LN 69, JA814A) to ANA - last week of August
ZA182 (LN 70, JA828J) to JAL - last week of August

Notable is the absence of ZA135 (LN 66, JA815A) which was the first 787 that did not need to go to the EMC.  This airplane probably needs a little bit more time to finish off the 300 some assembly tasks that remained after being pulled out of the assembly line.  This list has the potential of adding 3 maybe 4 more 787s if the Indian Government finally approves the compensation deal between Air India and Boeing.  That is the potential of 10 to 11 deliveries next month and would take Boeing to almost to the 2/3 point of the total 787 deliveries that they have projected for 2012 (35 to 42 with 12 currently delivered).

787 info from Boeing's 2nd quarter earnings call

                                         Ethiopian's First 787 (ZA262) returning to Everett.
                                         Photo by Bernard Leighton

Today was quite a day for Boeing and the 787. A lot of news today so let's get started

Boeing's Earnings Call

Boeing Earning's came out today and showed quite an improvement.  As far as the 787 is concerned Boeing said a few things that were already known but let's go through the highlights.  Boeing is saying that they're seeing a high level of completion of aircraft coming out the final assembly line at Everett.  It's close to 100% apparently.  They're still tracking to increase production to 5/month by the end of this year and 10/month by the end of 2014.  Boeing is expecting to see higher 2nd half 787deliveries both from aircraft coming off the assembly line as well as those finishing change incorporation.  However Boeing does expect to see an increase in inventory as deferred production balance was recorded at $13.2bn and is expected to grow to about $20bn by the time the production rate hits 10/month after which there should be decline in this balance as airplanes are cleared out of inventory and the production system stabilizes at that rate.  In terms of deliveries Boeing said the deliveries were paced by customer demands and request.  It seems that this may be the reason why there hasn't been too much 787 pre-delivery activity at Everett.  They also said that aft fuselage production is a "hot spot" for Boeing in terms of 787 production and they still have some issues there which they're addressing. It's not a show stopper for the production rate increase. Jim McNerney said that the most important thing is that production is now occurring without the need to send airplanes to the Everett Modification Center (EMC) for change incorporation.  He also said that there is plan to get the aircraft that have to go through the EMC out in an orderly fashion.  He said that the EMC will continue to see work for the next year and half plus (so let's assume for another 18 to 21 months or end of first quarter 2014). Aside from Air India (a deviation from planned deliveries) which is all to well known, Boeing does have a ramp plan for deliveries for the second half of the year.  In terms of the improvement they said that ZA182 (LN70, JA828A) had about 160 open jobs left so they're seeing a lot of improvement in the condition of assembly.  Boeing is also seeing improvement at the EMC in terms of work behind schedule and shortages. They also said that the Trent 1000 gear box issue won't affect deliveries and 4 of 5 of airplanes ANA airplanes have been fixed and it's a very minor issue.  This issue won't affect deliveries of the airplane.  Boeing also gave more indications (there is greater fidelity on the evaluation of the business case) that they will do a 787-10X and that a decision should come later this year or early next year.  McNerney said that it does look like a good airplane which would have a lot of market demand. 

Looking ahead to 787 delivery forecast for the remainder of the year, Boeing said that they still expect to deliver between 35 and 42 787s for all of 2012.  They have already delivered 11.  This means that between 24 and 31 787s will be delivered by the end of this year and this will be split 50/50 between airplanes from EMC and those coming off the final assembly lines in Everett and Charleston.  Thus Boeing is saying that they would deliver between 12 to 15 787 each from EMC and the final assembly lines over the next 5 months starting in August (1 787 already has been delivered from the EMC in July).

Air India

Delivery of Air India's 787s is one step closer as an Indian Government Group of Ministers (GoM) had approved the deal between Boeing and Air India.  The matter now goes to the Indian Cabinet for final approval.  If and when that approval is given the delivery will take place and the fly aways will occur.  It's not known when the Indian CCEA will meet next but it is at his next meeting that the compensation deal will be discussed.

Aeromexico Order

Aeromexico added to the days news with a huge letter of intent (LoI) for 90 737 MAX8 and 737 MAX 9 as well as 10 787-9.  The deal is worth about $11bn.  It is not known if this order is inclusive of options of not but when the deal is finalized the numbers will then be known.  Aeromexico currently has orders for the 787-8 (both purchase and lease) and is expected to start taking deliveries starting in 2013.

Other News

The first 787 fro Ethiopian (see picture above) flew back to Everett this afternoon. ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) flew back in the Ethiopian scheme after spending close to two weeks in Ft. Worth being painted.  There were other 787s flights today but were test airplanes conducting Boeing test flights out of Boeing Field.  It is not known when the next B-1 flights will occur next but there are still some 787s that need the new gear box fro the Trent 1000 powered airplanes.  The timing of the next 787 test flights is also clouded by the planned closure of Everett's main renway from 4pm on August 2nd to 8AM on August 6th.  It is possible that Boeing can get 1 possibly 2 787s into the air for their B-1 flight before August 2nd but only if they're ready.

Trent 1000 gear box issue holding up deliveries: Aviation Week

According to an article by Guy Norris in Aviation Week, the gear box issue is holding up deliveries of the Trent 1000 powered aircraft as Boeing needs replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  There are numerous 787s on the Boeing flightline waiting to be delivered.  Of the 9 airplanes that I have listed as in final preps for delivery at Everett, 5 are equipped with the Trent 1000 engine.  According to Guy Norris' report, 17 Trents in total are affected by the gear box issue of which nine are on undelivered 787s that are earmarked for ANA.  Boeing and Rolls Royce are waiting for replacement gear boxes from Hamilton Sundstrand.  Of the other 4 787s at Everett/Ft. Worth that are waiting to be delivered, one is in paint (ZA262), one for JAL (ZA182) just emerge from the paint hangar and will robably start pre-flight work soon, the one for Qatar Airways is still finishing up interior IFE work (ZA461) and another 787 that just appeared at the Boeing fuel dock, looks to be United Airlines first 787 (ZA288) and still has to go through painting before moving on the pre-flight.  All these are equipped with the GEnx engines. 

So it appears the bottleneck may be with the gear box issue with the Trent 1000 engines as each of the 5 Trent 1000 aircraft are all at different point in the pre-flight timeline. Each aircraft has to wait it turn while the aircraft that is further along must clear each pre-flight milestone before the B-1 flight.

In the meantime, the Trent 1000 gear box issue is likely a minor problem that affects a very small portion of the 787s in service but it's an issue that has attracted significant attention because it is the 787.

Lastly, LAN says it is expected to take delivery of its first 787 (ZA536) in late August or early September.

Are 787 deliveries slowing down?

UPDATE: I got word that Qatar's first 787 will be delivered in August but it's still open as to when in August.  Given that at Everett there are only three 787s that have had their B-1 flight thus far (ANA, Qatar, & Ethiopian), I'm going to say that only one 787 will be delivered this month.  There hasn't been any word on other 787s that will have their B-1 flight but I expect that at least 2 more will take to the skies for the B-1 flight before the end of July in order to be delivered next month (ZA100 and ZA135).

There has been raised hopes and expectations that aviation geeks around the world would see an avalanche of 787 deliveries starting this summer.  However we've seen only a trickle and I am at a loss to explain it. The Everett ramp is getting full of 787s that have either finished change incorporation or are airframes that do not need to go through the EMC but just have a few hundred small jobs left to be done.  As successive airplanes come out of 40-26 the number of jobs that remain have fallen to less than 150 with ZA182 (LN 70) for JAL.  This aircraft has yet to appear on the Everett flightline though it has been more than 9 days per line move on July 3, about 12 days ago.  We may yet see ZA182 as early as tomorrow or Monday. 

In terms of getting these planes ready for delivery, while the monster jobs of change incorporation have been completed on those airplanes, there is still a long line for delivery as these planes must go through the step by step process of pre-flight ground test, Boeing flight tests, customer flight tests as well as customer inspections and quality control reviews.  It appears that there doesn't seem to be enough resources to tackle all this work for the 8-9 aircraft that are lined up ready for their turn.  Both ZA508 (LN 51, JA811A) and ZA100 (LN 7, JA803A) were expected to be delivered this month to ANA. It's looking like on ZA508 will make it and there is rumors of extra work needed to prepare ZA100 for flight.  This is the aircraft that needed the most rework as it was the first production standard 787 to enter final assembly.  It is not known when this airplane is to finally take to the air.

In the meanwhile the first 787 for LAN, ZA536 (LN 68, CC-BBA) is now on the 40-51 ramp after being painted and is presumably finishing up some assembly tasks.  There is some controversy about when it is to be delivered. with some reports saying delivery is in August but LAN is saying that they expect to take delivery of its first 787 late this year.  Right next to is a 787 for ANA registered JA813A.  This is registration that was assigned to ZA510 (LN 59) and previously I had it listed as in storage and not undergoing any change modification.  I doubt that this airplane could have prepared to quickly though it is possible that this airplane may certainly have had some work completed while outside the EMC and it engines attached. I'm trying to find out the true identity of this airplane beyond the registration.  There are some late build 787, notably ZA118 (LN 67, JA816A) and ZA119 (LN 69, JA817A) that have "gone missing."  I'm assuming that these airplanes, if one of them is not the ANA 787 that currently is sitting on the 40-51 ramp, are in the paint hangar.

Lastly, it is quite possible that ZA262 (LN 49, ET-AOQ) for Ethiopian and ZA461 (LN 58, A7-BCB) for Qatar Airways could be ready for delivery by the end of this month.  The former has conduct two Boeing test flights (including the ferry flight to Ft worth) and is currently being painted in Texas. I would expect this airplane back in Everett in about 7 to 8 days. It could could still conceivably conduct customer flights after its return to Everett before the end of the month.  ZA461 is more of a question mark as Boeing needs to complete some interior assembly tasks (may be related to the IFE System) prior to further Boeing and customer test flights.  Again it is entirely possible that his airplane could deliver by the end of this month.

Don't even ask me about Air India.

787 Production Update

I've learned today the customers who will be receiving 787s designated from LN 64 to LN70.

They are as follows:

ZA463/LN64 to Qatar Airways
ZA182/LN65 to Japan Airlines
ZA135/LN66 to ANA
ZA118/LN67 to ANA
ZA536/LN68 to LAN
ZA119/LN69 to ANA
ZA240/LN70 to Air India

I don't have information, as of yet, where each will be built (Everett or Charleston) but I'm working to try and get that information. Boeing is planning to increase its 787 production rate to 2.5 airplanes a month by the end of this month.