End of May 787 Update

Not too much to update here but what I lack in quantity I hopefully make up in quality!

787 flight testing slowed down this past weekend (Memorial Day Weekend) with only one airplane flying, ZA002. This airplane surpassed 250 flight hours this past weekend. ZA001 is swapping out it's Trent 1000 engines and is about midway through that exercise. It is not, as far as I have learned, a swap out of the Trent package "A" engines (which was what this aircraft has been flying with since December) with the improved package "B" engines. The fourth 787, ZA004 will receive the improved package "B" Trent 1000 in September. The package "B" engines is supposed to deliver a specific fuel consumption that is within 1% of what was promised to customers. These engines incorporates design improvements to get that fuel consumption close to what is contractually promised by Rolls Royce. ZA004 is receiving some APU updates and additional instrumentation and ZA003 was given the weekend off for the Holidays. The 787 test fleet has flown the most hours in the program during the past one month, logging over 330 hours spread across over 100 flights. The per flight utilization also went up to 3.2 hours per flight. Most of this is attributed to ZA004 performing Nautical Air Miles Testing over the eastern Pacific just west of the Baja Peninsula.

To date the 787 test fleet has accumulated over 880 flight test hours during more than 280 flights.

Coming up

So far so good with flight testing. ZA002 flew to Victorville this morning (June 1) and is joining ZA004 in flight test duties. The two airplanes will be testing independent of one another. ZA002 will undertaking NGS (nitrogen generating system) tests as well as some other small testing duties.

ZA005 is still scheduled to fly around June 16th and ZA006 will be flying around July 13th.

On the production front, look for LN 23 to start final assembly around June 14th. Boeing held up final assembly of 787s for one month to allow the supply chain to get caught up in work instead of sending the fuselage sections to Everett along with travelled work. Look for parts for this airplane to start arriving next week though some parts are already in for this airplane.

Lastly, I asked Boeing about sending the 787 to the Farnborough Air Show. They said no decision has been made yet and it will depend on the progress of flight testing. They anticipate that a decision should be made closer to the time of the air show in mid July.

Farnbourough order rumor and other musings

On the eve of Farnborough I've been hearing rumblings of some 787 orders. These are unconfirmed rumors. Some are obvious but others are not. I heard that Ethiad, Asiana (amongst the obvious airlines), and Turkish Airlines (the unexpected order) maybe ordering the 787. While Boeing has over 60 unidentified orders including 2 large blocks of 23 and 35, it seems that a couple of these airlines may not be the ones who placed those orders. It seems for certain that the 787 will break 900 firm orders by the end of the show and I'm willing to say that a further order from ILFC, one of Boeing's most important and influential customers, will be given that honor. I will hope to confirm these potential orders soon.

While the 787 final assembly production has been stopped momentarily because of the issues with LN 4, the final assembly of the first three flight worthy aircraft continue. The engines for LN 1 will have been re-installed by the end of this weekend...a major step forward as Boeing was not expecting to re-install them until August....so they're several weeks ahead of that schedule. Jon Ostrower reported it here.

Look here at Matt Cawby's site for more pics. Here's a picture of the fatigue test frame in 40-24. This is another engine picture. And final picture also here. It is my understanding that LN 1 should be moving in about a week to 10 days from now but I'm not sure if this is on hold because of the issues with LN 4. Speaking of which we hope to have more clarity on that airplane by Tuesday.

Farnborough '08

That time of year is coming up...July in the the UK...Wimbeldon and the Royal Henly Regatta (Go Columbia Lions!).

But for aviation industry execs and enthusiasts it also means the Farnborough International Airshow. As far as the commercial aviation sector is concerned the topics will revolve aroung one word: OIL.

Yep the price of black gold has airlines teetering on the edge of bankruptcy or in some cases total collapse. Two years ago no one was even talking about oil being near $150/bblbut going into this years airshow airline execs and the aerospace industry still have to find a way to survive in a world where oil can reach to $200 or even $250 per barrel.

As far as airline fleets are concerned, the industry has two ways of responding:

1. Permanently park fuel inefficient fleets and reduce capacity system wide


2. Replace older aircraft with newer fuel efficient aircraft

There is a fine edge between both options with many airlines retiring old airplanes but also deferring current orders and outright canceling them as evidenced by Air Deccan, Kingfisher, jetBlue and Skybus' fleet actions (well the later had to liquidate so it doesn't make sense to keep those A320 orders alive).

Some are moving forward with re-fleeting plans which includes buying up 787, 777, 747-8, A350, A330 and A380s as well as filling up on the narrowbodies.

American Airlines while now charging $15 for th first checked bag is also talking about accerating 737 deliveries in order to repalce the MD-80s that comprises the largest portion of its fleet. This is an example of what awaits aircraft manufacturers. The "healthy" airlines will move up purchases of new airplanes to get the older ones out of services while hte "sicker" airlines cannot simply afford to replace any airplanes and would rather cut services, capacity and routes while charging passengers higher fares and fees.

While cancellations and deferrals won't dominate the marketing efforts at Farnborough by Boeing and Airbus, they will undoubtedly will tout the new orders that will be announced there.

So who is in the market and who will order. Here's my prediction (or guesses):

ILFC - they've stated that they plan on ordering up to 150 airplanes from both manufacturers. I would see them buying up a lot of A320 especially in the light of several cancellations and deferrals for the type which has probably opened up early delivery slots. The 737 hasn't experienced a high cancellation rate yet...it may be a matter of time for that to happen. I also think that ILFC will be in big for more 787s and will try and take up more 777s

Ethiad - they're talking to both manufacterers for 50 - 100 airplens in both narrowbodies and widebodies. My predicition is that Airbus will take the narrowbody part of the order while Boeing will win the widebody with a mix of 787, 777 and 747-8I. There is an unidentified order for 35 787-9 and I think Ethiad might be the one who placed this order.

Emirates - these guys are posting profits and doesn't seem to be weighed down by the price of fuel. Must also help being funded by the rulers of Dubai who are just raking in the oil profits. I can see them buying more 777 and perhaps converting some of the 747-8F to 747-8Is.

British Air and QANTAS - rumors have been floating around that both British Airways and QANTAS will buy the 777-300ER to help solve a capacity shortfall due to the 787 delays. This maybe announced at Farnborough

Boeing may reveal the purchasers of several unidentifed orders including:

23 787-8 (probably Air Canada)

35 787-9s (Ethiad is my guess)

10 777-300ER (Emirates)

15 777-300ERs (not sure on this one)

737s....Boeing has a boat load of unidentified 737 buyers. Here is a list of them for 2007 and 2008:

Model Order Date Total
737-800 30-Mar-07 4
737-800 11-Apr-07 2
737-800 26-Apr-07 15
737-800 29-Aug-07 16
737-800 28-Sep-07 34
737-800 4-Oct-07 5
737-800 31-Oct-07 1
737-800 15-Nov-07 30
737-700 4-Dec-07 6
737-800 4-Dec-07 9
737-800 27-Dec-07 15
737-800 11-Feb-08 1
737-700 20-Feb-08 15
737-800 20-Feb-08 15
737-800 11-Mar-08 40
737-800 12-Mar-08 1
737-800 18-Mar-08 6
737-800 11-Apr-08 2
737-800 5-May-08 20
737-800 27-May-08 30
Various 737s June, 08 37

304

I'll rcap the days action from Farnborough on this blog site.