More progress on the 787 return to flight

As the 8 airlines get closer to resuming their 787 service I've updated the list below since new information has been coming out:

ANA - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
Air India - around mid May
Ethiopian - April 27
JAL - early June (after completing test flights and pilot training)
LAN - unknown
LOT Polish Airlines - June 5
Qatar Airways - end of April
United Airlines - May 31st but may be able to restart earlier

Today the amended Airworthiness Directive was posted in the Federal Register thus making the FAA's certification of the battery fix official.  Any US registered 787 can now fly with the battery fix. Already Japan and Europe has followed the FAA's lead on this as has approved of Boeing's fix though I also expect that India, Ethiopia, Chile and Qatar will all follow suit fairly quickly.  The first set of 787s should be completed by now.  LOT Polish Airlines is (or already has) ferrying its 787 stranded in Chicago to Addis Ababa where a Boeing team is there to install the battery fix on the 4 aircraft belonging to Ethiopian.  Word is that LOT's second aircraft, which is currently in Warsaw, will also be flown to Ethiopia for the fix.  Qatar 787 that was stranded at London Heathrow was ferried back to Doha for the fix and one United jet at LA was ferried to San Antonio, Tx. for the repairs.

Given Japan's approval of Boeing's fix, ANA announced that starting this Sunday, May 28th, their 787s will fly about 230 test flights in order to re-train their team of 787 pilots as well as reassure their passengers that the airplane is safe to fly one.  They plan on resuming regular passenger service in June.  ANA is also looking to see a resumption of 787 deliveries with ZA512 (LN 82, JA818A) being the first 787 to be delivered since the grounding in January. It can be delivered as early as late next week but ANA pilots still have to fly the customer flights on this airplane. 

Outside of this one pending delivery, I can see LOT Polish, Air India, JAL and even China Southern and Hainan taking deliveries in May. In June we can see deliveries to Thomson, Qatar, JAL, ANA and ILFC being made.  I do expect that Boeing will now be aggressive in their production flight test program as they need to clear the inventory sitting at Everett and Charleston.

Lastly, a reader sent me this link to a video from the BBC detailing the 787 battery fix work that is going on in Ethiopia.

 

787 Looking Back and Looking Forward: Part 2, 2013 Look Ahead

Now that Boeing has put to bed a very successful 2012 which includes regaining the title as the top commercial aircraft producer (thanks in part to the 787 deliveries that exceeded forecast), what is in store for the Dreamliner program in 2013?

There are several milestones for the 787 program coming up in the year.  Among those are:

787-9/787-10
Assembly and 1st flight of the first 787-9.  Assembly should start around early June and I anticipate that aircraft will be out about 1 month later to begin gauntlet testing in the run up for first flight in late summer or early fall. I expect Boeing to have 3 airplanes flying the certification testing and will be refurbished and delivered to customers after the planned 6 month test flight program is concluded.  Boeing is still aiming for first delivery to Air New Zealand in mid 2014.

Launch of the 787-10 variant with significant orders from major Boeing customers which may include British Airways, Qatar Airways and others.

Production and Delivery
Boeing had executed extremely well on its plan to increase 787 production from 1.5/month to 5/month at the end of the year.  Boeing's plan for production in 2013 was laid out in a conference call to investors. The plan is for Boeing to maintain the current 5/month rate through the middle of 2013 (end of June, perhaps) at which point they will break rate and go to 7/month and finally break rate again in late 2013 to the final 10/month rate.

How many can Boeing build in 2013 and how many they can deliver are two different numbers.  There is a lag between the break in rate and when the first aircraft assembled at the new rate is delivered.  Thus it is a couple of months before the increase in production rate translates to an increase in the delivery rate. 

Production Forecast:
Thus for the production rate Boeing would see a build rate of 30 787s for the first 6 months of 2013 (5/month for 6 months), followed by a build rate of 35 787s for the following 5 months (7/month for 5 months). Followed by a build rate in December of 10/month. Therefore, this total indicates that Boeing is capable of assembling a total of 75 787s during 2013.

Delivery Forecast:
I am going to attempt to quantify Boeing deliveries for 2013 but I have to make certain assumptions:

1) Boeing will produce at a rate of 5/month through June, 2013 then break to 7/month starting in July, 2013 and maintain that through November 2013.  In December 2013 Boeing will move to 10/month.  This is based on currently available information.

2) I'm assuming that there would be 9 week lag between the break from 5/month to 7/month, therefore the first 787 to deliver at 7/month would be in September, 2013.  Even though there is a break in production rate in December to 10/month this rate won't translate to a 10/month delivery rate until 2014.

3) The numbers don't account for production of 787-9s for testing purposes.  I am only looking at deliveries of 787s to customers in 2013.

4) As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines is expected to be delivered around September 1, 2013 according to the airline.  I am assuming that September will be the first month of 7 Dreamliner deliveries from the final assembly lines.

5) Since I don't have the firing order for L/N 131 and beyond I am assuming the following deliver rates for the remainder: 4 aircraft in September and 7 each in the last three months of 2013.  This is a total of 25.  L/N 128 to L/N 130 will assumed to be delivered in September as well for a total of 7 aircraft delivered in that month.

6) Boeing will deliver 12 787s that will undergo change incorporation but this number may grow to 15.  As of January 1, 2013, Boeing has 26 787s that are under going or will under go change incorporation in preparation for delivery to customers.  This includes the last three test 787-8 (L/N 4 to L/N 6 with the last one already well into the change incorporation cycle.

7) I am assuming that all 787s earmarked for the Chinese carriers thus far will be delivered in 2013 (deliveries to start in March). I am also assuming that L/N 6 and L/N 17 will deliver but the customers are unknown at this time.  L/N 17 was originally earmarked for Royal Air Maroc but will be delivered to another 787 customer instead.

Given these assumption let's break up the deliveries between aircraft coming straight off the final assembly line and those that still require re-work through the Everett Modification Center or in San Antonio.

I am projecting that Boeing can deliver 76 787s from all three final assembly lines during 2013. As a point of reference, the first 787 for Royal Brunei Airlines should enter final assembly around late July and deliver about 2 months later in very early September.  I am projecting that from September to December that the delivery rate will be 7/month.

For the rework airplanes, I am projecting 12 787s that are going through the EMC and San Antonio (ZA006) will be delivered in 2013 but Boeing may be able to squeeze 3 more (ZA230, ZA231, and ZA115) if the modification process becomes more efficient.  Boeing is now going to work on 787s that need more time at the EMC due to all the re-work that has to be performed. The tables below summarizes my projections:






Disclaimer
While I try to be as accurate as I can the projections are my opinion and actual delivery numbers more likely differ from my estimate.  There are unforseen issues that can crop upo similar to the issues that held up deliveries to Air India, Qatar Airways and the Chinese carriers.  Additionally, labor strife may once again become a hinderance to deliveries this year if the engineers of SPEEA go on strike.  Word is that a strike may be authorized in Februrary.  Boeing and SPEEA are to go back to the Federal Mediator on January 9th to try and come to an agreement.  If one isn't forth coming then the strike will severely slow down production of all Boeing jetliners as well as significantly slow down the testing and certification of the 787-9.  Boeing can make up some work by using managment engineers but it won't be enough to fill the void. The other issue is the need to manage the production rate increases carefully.  2012 showed that Boeign can do this but they were very measured in their approach last year.  In 2013 Boeing will be more aggresive with the 787 rate increase (two rate jumps from 5 to 7 and then from 7 to 10) and any issues can mean serious trouble not unlike the production snafus in the late 1990s.

Boeing ended 2012 on an excellent note by regaining it's former position as the top commercial aircraft producer (thanks to the 46 787 deliveries).  Boeing is poised to continue that dominance but there will be issues that Boeing will need to resolve if 2013 is to be more successful in 787 deliveries than 2012.  We'll see how it tuens out.

2 more JAL 787s to deliver tomorrow

Boeing is set for another 787 double delivery to customer Japan Airlines.  This time two more late built 787s will be delivered on April 25th.  Fly away to Japan is expected around the 26th or 27th, in time for JAL to start 787 service to Moscow and Delhi in May.  Japan Airlines is expecting to have 10 787s in its fleet by March 31, 2013.  There are still 3 more JAL 787s at Everett that have yet to finish change incorporation.  The two 787s that will be delivered are ZA180 (LN 37, JA826J) and ZA181 (LN38, JA827J).

Boeing is preparing ZA506 (LN47, JA809A) for delivery to ANA.  This is probably not going to happen until May with it's first flight sometime in the first two weeks of May.  This will be ANA's 8th 787. Again Boeing is still clearing out the late and very late built aircraft but clearing out the first 23 787s built has been very slow (LN7 - LN29)

Additionally, it's expected that Boeing will finally deliver Air India's first Dreamliner though the first one ZA236 (LN 35, VT-ANH) is still in San Antonio.  It's sister, ZA233 (LN29, VT-AND) has been flying around San Antonio and may be flying to Paine Field right now.  This airplane will still need to have its interior installed when it gets back to Everett so it won't be ready for delivery until late May at the earliest.

Finally on Friday Boeing will roll out the first 787 to be built at Boeing Charleston.  This airplane, ZA237 (LN46) is destined for Air India and should be delivered around June.  Given that this is the first 787 to be built at Charleston, Boeing will probably take its time doing the needed gauntlet testing before conducting its first flight.  Boeing will then send the plane to Amarillo, Texas where Leading Edge Aviation Services is contracted to paint the Charleston built Dreamliners.  Boeing Charleston doesn't have a paint hangar unlike Everett but I can see that changing with Boeing's acquisition of more land near the plant.  The airplanes will then be flown back to Charleston where the interiors will be fitted and further Boeing and customer test flights will be completed.

Ch...ch...ch...changes

ZA177 in San Antonio for Change Incorporation (Boeing Photos)

After flying ZA177 (LN 23 for Japan Air Lines) down to San Antonio (Lackland Air Force Base) last week, Boeing is now ready to start the process of change incorporation into the built 787s as well as incorporating the needed changes back into the supply chain.

First a little background. Throughout the testing and certification program (either ground test or flight tests) for the 787, Boeing and the FAA identified changes that needed to be made to the 787s in order for them to be certified to carry passengers. These changes can be numerous and each task can take anywhere from a few minutes to weeks to complete. The added complexity is that each task has to be undertaken in a certain order so as not to duplicate any disassembly tasks as well as not to cause any damage to the aircraft. The airplanes will not receive the customer interiors (seats, galleys, IFE, etc.) in San Antonio. That work will be done in Everett after the change incorporation process is completed.

Boeing said that a total of 6 787s will go through change incorporation in San Antonio including the last 3 787 flight test aircraft (ZA004, ZA005, and ZA006) which will be refurbished for delivery to unannounced customers. Boeing has not identified the other production 787 that will undergo change incorporation in San Antonio but has said that they send additional 787 to San Antonio for change incorporation work as they see the need. The other airplanes that are not flown to San Antonio will have work done at Everett. Currently Boeing has 35 787s assembled or are in the process of final assembly bu change incorporation will only occur on LN 4 and later. Currently that is 32 airplanes. As modifications are identified and the detailed engineering and design changes are finalized, they will be incorporated back though the final assembly process and into the supply chain (at least that's the plan). It is not known how long each aircraft will take in change incorporation. Here's Boeing's press release:

Boeing Begins Change Incorporation Work on 787 Dreamliner

787 program continues steady progress toward certification and delivery

EVERETT, Wash., March 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Today, Boeing (NYSE: BA) began change incorporation work on the 787 Dreamliner at Boeing's Global Services & Support site in San Antonio, Texas. Airplane #23, the first 787 to undergo change incorporation, on Friday flew from Everett, Wash., to San Antonio on a ferry flight. During change incorporation, airplanes that are not part of flight test are configured to conform with the standards established as part of type certification efforts. Refurbishment of three of the six 787 flight test airplanes also will take place in San Antonio after completion of flight test activities.

"The 787 team is thrilled to have the expertise and enthusiasm of the San Antonio team focused on getting these airplanes ready for delivery to our customers," said Scott Fancher, vice president and general manager of the 787 program.

The current plan is for six Dreamliners to complete change incorporation and refurbishment in San Antonio. Three will complete change incorporation and three airplanes will be refurbished after flight test is complete. However, the plan is flexible and could accommodate additional 787 production needs as flight test is completed and airplanes are prepared for delivery. The work will be performed from March 2011 through 2013.

"We continuously look for ways to leverage the strength of the Boeing enterprise, taking advantage of the team and the skills we have across the company," said Fancher. "San Antonio specializes in modification work and has the capability and capacity to get the job done. The team was a natural choice."

Some of the work done in San Antonio will include installing electronic and mechanical equipment, completing software upgrades, testing functional systems, and removing and reworking wiring or equipment that needs to be updated to current configuration requirements. Approximately 450 employees will be hired on a temporary basis to join with 1,700 experienced workers at the site to complete the work.

"Everyone on our team is excited to join the 787 program," said Kevin Devine, vice president and general manager of the San Antonio site. "This airplane is about as advanced as you can get and there are high expectations tied to this work package. I am confident that our team will get the job done."

Currently, there are about 1,500 employees at Boeing's San Antonio site performing maintenance and modification work on the following programs: KC-135 Programmed Depot Maintenance, KC-135 Global Air Traffic Management, C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership and the C-130 Avionics Modernization program.

There are other changes coming to the 787 flight test fleet...actually just one airplane. ZA004, which was to have the package "B" Trent 1000 engines installed last month will now have those engines installed between March 18th and April 6th.


Lastly, the 787 flight test fleet went over the 3,100 flight test hour mark yesterday when ZA003 completed a 2 hour and 10 minute test flight. It is epected that ETOPS testing should begin late this month and carry on into July.

Round up of 787 News

Over the last couple of days, news regarding the 787 has been coming in fast. From the resolution of compensation to Spirit over its share of 787 work to this morning's announcement with the revised 787 schedule. I've posted links to some of articles and blog posts that have come out in the last few days.

One thing that should be mentioned though (that I didn't talk about in my previous post) is the crowded flightline at Boeing. Because of the new delivery date and the growing lack of ramp space at Everett, Boeing may be forced to slow down production in order to get the airplanes built prepared to be ferried to San Antonio for further rework and change incorporation. These preparations may take some time thus forcing Boeing to slowdown production. We would have to wait and see if that indeed happens. With ZA102, hopefully flying today, it may allow Boeing and the FAA to work out compromise whereby the already completed 787s can be fixed up and flown out of Everett to San Antonio and thus freeing up space to continue production.

Another interesting issue that comes up is delivery order. Boeing may deliver some of the later production models (as they would little to no rework or change incorporation). This would help with financial margins as well as continuing to free up ramp space at Everett.

Here are the links of interest:

Guy Norris: 787 Engine Update

Flightblogger: FAA returns to 787 flights, maiden production sortie, ZA002 flying Monday

Guy Norris: Boeing resumes 787 certification Testing

Dominic Gates: Boeing 787 resumes test flights for FAA Approval

Saj Ahmad: Summer Delivery on Cards for 787?

Saj Ahmad: Boeing 787 - Certification Finish Line In Sight?

Guy Norris: 787 Deliveries Slide to Third Quarter