Friday, June 29, 2018

Boeing Delivered 700th 787 to China Southern Airlines

Boeing appears to have reached a milestone yesterday by delivering the 700th 787 to a customer.  It appears that number 700 was delivered to China Southern Airlines (LN 713, ZB913) and flew away on June 26th. Boeing is on track to deliver 15 787s this month.

As of today Boeing has delivered 704 787s.  I project that they should deliver 800 sometime around February - March, 2019 and depending on when they break rate to 14/month we could see 900 delivered in the fall of 2019. The 1000th 787 should be delivered around the summer of 2020, about 2 years from now again depending on when Boeing increases the production (and delivery) rate to 14/month.

Lastly, Boeing signed up a new customer for 20 787-9s.  Bamboo Airways, a start up airline in Vietnam as signed an MoU and already paid deposits for 20 787-9s.  The deal hasn't been finalized yet but I suspect you should see it on Boeing's order book by the end of this year to early 2019 as first delivery is expected to occur in 2020.

787 Spreadsheets

Saturday, June 16, 2018

787 May Month End & June Mid Month Review

Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett90
To be assembled in Charleston75
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work3
Pre-Flight Prep17
Production Testing4
Non Customer Flight Tests0
Ready for Delivery0

I know, I know I'm slipping.  I have to get my updates out but again...better late than never!

Boeing had a good showing in May delivering 13 787s (2 x 787-8, 9 x 787-9 and 2 x 787-10).  Additionally through June 15th Boeing delivered an addition 5 787s ( 4 x 787-9, 1 x 787-10) including British Airways last 787-9 on order.  In 2018 up to May 31st, Boeing has delivered 55 787 (2 xx 787-8, 49 x 787-9, 4 x 787-10).  Through June 15th Boeing has delivered 60 787s this year (2 x 787-8, 53 x 787-9, 5 x 787-10).  Program deliveries through May 31st stand at 691 (352 x 787-8, 335 x 787-9 and 4 x 787-10).  Through June 15th total 787 deliveries are at 696 (352 x 787-8, 339 x 787-9, 5 x 787-10).

Going forward, I expect Boeing to deliver 10 more 787s in June thus delivering a total of 15 aircraft this month. The bump up in deliveries is due to the knock on effects of the Roll Royce engine issues (for a great article on the issue check out Dominic Gates' article in the Seattle Times) as aircraft deliveries delayed due to engine shortages are now being delivered but I expect these knock on effects to probably continue through the summer before the delivery mix becomes predominantly 787s powered by GE engines.  Of these 10, notable deliveries include the 700th Dreamliner to be delivered to a customer should be turned over on June 26th though I'm not sure which airlines will receive it.  Additionally Royal Brunei should get the 5th and last 787-8 on order.

Production continues apace with the first 787-9 for Eva Air due to roll out any day now.  The first 787-10 for United Airlines has started final assembly.  The first 787-10 for Etihad will enter final assembly this month and should be the first GE powered 787-10 to be delivered.  Among the 787s that were rolled out include the first 787s for Air Tanzania and Biman Bangladesh (both 787-8s).

Orders were ok as Boeing picked up order from QANTAS (6 x 787-9) and BOC (3 x 787-9 which were transferred from Air Europa which showed the cancellation).  Additionally, there were UFO orders for 2 787-8 and 4 787-9.  The net increase to the order book in May was 12 and the total order book stands at 1,377.  I expect that there will be a few more UFO orders book in June that will be announced starting July 16th during the Farnborough Air Show.  I am hopeful that this will include finalization of Emirates long awaited 787-10 order which was announced late last year.  Also it appears that Boeing is getting close to winning an order from United Airlines for more 787 which was pitted against Airbus' A330NEO (another loss for them).  Boeing has been extremely aggressive with winning further 787 orders based on not just price but the overall value proposition of the aircraft against not just the A350 but also vs the A330NEO. It also makes sense since United has a large 787 fleet (28 with 14 787-10s yet to be delivered).  I suspect that this order, when announced and finalize will push the total 787 order book to over 1,400 units as United is looking to replace about 50 767s.  I am anticipating that the United order will be announced at Farnborough and that it will be mostly (if not all) 787-9s.

I do plan on covering the order battle coming out of FIA 2018 next month starting July 16th so stay tuned!

Don't forget to refer to my 787 spreadsheets for the latest information:

787 Spreadsheets